Live news gate: stop capping signal confidence near events (XAU default)

Replaying the live danger/caution gates against the validated 12mo XAU
M5 book showed they suppress 25-35 trades worth +4.6..+7.2R/yr — trades
entered near USD releases outperform the book average (+0.475R vs
+0.256R). New NewsConfig.event_risk_caps_signals (default False =
XAU-tuned) keeps EVENT RISK warnings in alerts but no longer guts
confidence; EUR factory re-enables the caps (evidence is gold-specific).
Pinned XAU M5 regression: 547 trades, +139.94R, trade-identical.
Tests: 177 passed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

test_all.py

@@ -1203,6 +1203,43 @@ def _():
     assert report.action_recommendation != ""
 
 
+@test("Event-risk signal gating obeys news.event_risk_caps_signals")
+def _():
+    config = PlatformConfig()
+    agg = SignalAggregator(config)
+    dfs = {
+        Timeframe.H1: make_ohlcv(300, seed=42),
+        Timeframe.M15: make_ohlcv(300, seed=43),
+        Timeframe.H4: make_ohlcv(300, seed=44),
+    }
+    report = agg.analyze_from_dataframes("XAU/USD", dfs, use_news=False)
+
+    def recompute(risk, caps):
+        config.news.event_risk_caps_signals = caps
+        report.event_risk = risk
+        report.event_description = "USD Test Event in 10min"
+        report.warnings = []
+        agg._compute_final_signal(report)
+        return report.final_confidence
+
+    baseline = recompute("clear", True)
+    # default XAU behavior (caps off): danger warns but does not gut
+    conf_off = recompute("danger", False)
+    assert conf_off == baseline, "flag off must not change confidence"
+    assert any("EVENT RISK" in w for w in report.warnings), "warning must persist"
+    # caps on: danger hard-caps confidence at 30
+    conf_on = recompute("danger", True)
+    assert conf_on <= 30, f"danger with caps on must cap conf at 30, got {conf_on}"
+    # caution with caps off is also warning-only
+    conf_caut_off = recompute("caution", False)
+    assert conf_caut_off == baseline
+    assert any("Upcoming event" in w for w in report.warnings)
+    # PlatformConfig default is off (XAU-tuned); EUR factory re-enables
+    assert PlatformConfig().news.event_risk_caps_signals is False
+    from pair_signals.eurusd import make_config as eur_make
+    assert eur_make(Timeframe.M15).news.event_risk_caps_signals is True
+
+
 @test("SignalAggregator._generate_trade_setup BUY direction")
 def _():
     config = PlatformConfig()