Add M5 gates 5-6 and trailing-stop exits (+48R → +105R on 12mo)

Gates 5-6 in the M5 filter: block 'high' vol regime entries (chop
transition — 61% WR, negative total while low/normal/extreme all
positive) and block SELLs with RSI<25 (dip already extended, mean-
reverts before target). 365d: 419→311 trades, +41→+48.4R, DD 11.2→8.0R.

Replace the fixed RR-0.5 take-profit with a trailing stop: arm at
+0.6R favorable excursion, trail 0.75R behind best price, stop levels
update at bar close (conservative). The RR-0.5 target was the binding
constraint — winners kept running after TP. Whole trail parameter grid
(arm 0.4-1.2 × dist 0.5-1.25) lands +90-103R, a plateau not a spike;
also +91.7R on the pre-gate 419-trade population. TP1 stays advisory;
Telegram alerts include the arm price and trail distance. max_hold
200→300 bars (trailing exits need room; +10R).

12mo M5, same 311 trades: +105.0R total, PF 2.27, DD 7.9R, 61% WR,
train/val +54.6/+50.4, every quarter positive.
This commit is contained in:
harwinder
2026-07-09 13:34:57 -04:00
parent 8687f98b39
commit 0393087168
4 changed files with 171 additions and 6 deletions
+19
View File
@@ -138,6 +138,17 @@ class SignalConfig:
# TP1 floor as a fraction of SL distance (0.5 = historical RR 0.5).
tp_floor_rr: float = 0.5
# ── Trailing-stop exit (2026-07) ──────────────────────────────
# Once favorable excursion reaches trail_arm_r × risk, the stop
# trails trail_dist_r × risk behind the best price (updated at bar
# close). TP1 becomes advisory — the trail is the exit. Validated
# on 12mo M5: +105R vs +48R with the fixed RR-0.5 target, balanced
# train/val, positive every quarter, PF 2.27. The RR-0.5 target was
# the binding constraint — winners kept running after TP.
# Set trail_arm_r = 0 to disable and exit at TP1 as before.
trail_arm_r: float = 0.6
trail_dist_r: float = 0.75
@dataclass
class NewsConfig:
@@ -193,6 +204,14 @@ class XauStrategyConfig:
# the ATR-based setup generator; B-grade swing setups survive
# because they catch moderate drops, not extremes.
m5_sell_max_quality: List[str] = field(default_factory=lambda: ["B", "C"])
# 'high' vol regime on M5 is chop transition — elevated noise
# without directional expansion. 61% WR / negative total across
# 12mo while low/normal/extreme are all positive (validated 2026-07).
m5_blocked_vol_regimes: List[str] = field(default_factory=lambda: ["high"])
# Block M5 SELLs when RSI is already < this floor: the dip is
# extended and mean-reverts before the target (negative in both
# halves of 6mo and 12mo backtests).
m5_sell_min_rsi: float = 25.0
@dataclass