Quant review 2026-09-26: alert cooldown, plain-language alerts, M15 grade-A SELL block, 1R printed targets, panel/breach fixes
Live signals.db review (2026-09-04 → 09-25, 100 unique setups replayed on the scans' stored candles): the stop-hunt claim is refuted (71% of stop-outs ran ≥ 1R past the stop, the same as the books' 70–72%); −25.1R of the −37.8R raw live book were consecutive-bar re-entries the backtester's 5-bar cooldown never takes; the cooldown view sits at the 3rd–5th percentile of the books' three-week windows. Delivery (book-neutral): - telegram_bot: 5-bar alert cooldown per timeframe (_ALERT_COOLDOWN_BARS = backtest.cooldown_bars); setup block prints the trail first as the tested exit, TP1/TP2 as guides with their R, "Planned TP1 RR", and one validated-book line per setup class (agent_panel_base_rates.json); the informational 100-pip TP line is removed (owner request). - AI block rewritten for a new trader: "AI check: the odds look better than / worse than / about usual", the chance "in 100" against the usual odds, one reason for and one against, no verdict word or confidence figure; rendered whenever the verdict carries a probability. agent_panel: persona prompts ban trading jargon (PANEL_PROMPT_VERSION v2.1-2026-09-26); the macro-source verdict now carries its persona's p_win (every live v2 row had panel_probability NULL). Dashboard and guides mirror the wording. - telegram_bot: level-breach rescans skip the settlement-pause window (the 20:45 M15 bar was re-logged at 22:01/22:06/22:11 every evening). Signal (pre-registered rule-1 campaign, CUDA twin paired with gpu_backtest.py): - M15 grade-A SELLs blocked (sell_min_quality ["A+","B"], M15 override 6): W2 813/+154.15R PF 1.53 vs 931/+146.14R PF 1.43, OOS +68.5 vs +60.67, W3 max DD 20.9 vs 19.3R. PASSED a–f. - Printed target 1 floored at 1R in every generator (signals.tp_print_floor_rr), applied AFTER the min-RR and spread gates so no trade changes; mirrored in cuda_signal_kernels.py K2. Label-only re-pin of all four timeframes (only tp1/rr_planned columns move). A floor applied before the gate cost −24.6R and was rejected. - FAILED: M15 min_rr_ratio 1.0 (trade-identical, −2.0R). Owner's call: M5 tp_floor_rr 1.0 (+48.9R W2, max DD 10.1 → 15.9R), not shipped. New pins: M5 W2 e599c8a8…, M15 W2 5b65ecf6…, M15 OOS 09b8a8e7…, H1 W3 a44fd19b…, H4 W3 f3587bae…; twin and reference MD5s equal on every window. Base-rate table rebuilt from the new pins. Suite 558 passed. Evidence: backtest/research/rr_and_sell_campaign_2026-09-26.md (plus the 2026-09-18 loss-anatomy and wrong-direction reports it builds on). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Harwinder Sekhon
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# Why the losing trades lost — two-year M5 and M15 books, 2026-09-18
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Owner question: for every losing trade in the two-year books, was it the wrong direction, a late
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entry, a target the market reversed before reaching, or a bad hour or day? Descriptive, in-book
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statistics; nothing here is a decision (rule 1 needs a control-versus-candidate run).
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## 1. Data
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The validated two-year windows, 2024-09-05 → 2026-09-05, regenerated on the CUDA twin with the
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decision-time features attached (`--export-features`), $0.65 round trip, factory configuration:
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```
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venv/bin/python backtest/cudaBasedBacktesting.py --pair XAUUSD --primary-tf 5min --start 2024-09-05 --end 2026-09-05 --spread 0.65 --export-features --export-csv w2_5min_feat.csv
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venv/bin/python backtest/cudaBasedBacktesting.py --pair XAUUSD --primary-tf 15min --start 2024-09-05 --end 2026-09-05 --spread 0.65 --export-features --export-csv w2_15min_feat.csv
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```
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`Backend: CuPy GPU (NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 SUPER, cupy 14.0.1)`, 0 cache fallbacks, 781 and
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931 trades, the pinned books (`49f8e602…`, `b4aa07e3…`) with the research columns appended. Every
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stretch feature is signed in the trade's direction (positive = price had already moved the
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trade's way), so buys and sells read alike. "R" is risk units: profit or loss divided by the
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distance from entry to the initial stop. A loser is any trade with negative R.
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| Book | Trades | Losers | Loss rate | Loss R | Win R | Net R | Full-stop losers | Trailing-stop losers |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| M5 | 781 | 368 | 47.1% | −278.9 | +424.9 | +146.1 | 247 (−257.8R) | 115 (−19.1R) |
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| M15 | 931 | 368 | 39.5% | −341.0 | +487.1 | +146.1 | 324 (−336.4R) | 39 (−2.6R) |
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Median loss −1.02R / −1.03R: a loser is almost always a full stop. The trailing exits' losses are
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small by construction.
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## 2. Price path of the losers (what the market did after entry)
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| Path after entry | M5 losers | Share | M5 loss R | M15 losers | Share | M15 loss R |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Never went our way (best excursion under 0.25R) | 153 | 42% | −157.9 (57%) | 162 | 44% | −166.9 (49%) |
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| Shallow move, then reversal (0.25R to 0.75R) | 165 | 45% | −115.7 (41%) | 185 | 50% | −171.6 (50%) |
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| Gave back a real advance (0.75R or more) | 50 | 14% | −5.3 (2%) | 21 | 6% | −2.5 (1%) |
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- **Wrong from the start** is the largest single cause by R: over half the M5 loss and half the
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M15 loss comes from trades whose best moment was under a quarter of the risk. Median hold 12
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bars (M5) and 18 bars (M15): they were stopped fast.
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- **Reversals after a genuine advance cost almost nothing** (1–2% of loss R): the trailing stop
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arms at 0.6R (M5) / 0.7R (M15) and limits the give-back. On M5, 81 losers (22%) did reach the
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full target-1 distance (median target-1 is only 0.51R on M5) and still closed red; they cost
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−23.8R. On M15 that is 15 losers, −7.1R.
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- Losers that reached at least half the target-1 distance: M5 157 (43%, −78.8R), M15 115 (31%,
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−80.8R). So roughly a third to two fifths of losers "were winning at some point".
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### Would a nearer hard target have helped? (all trades; exit at X when the best excursion reached X)
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| Hard target | M5 losers rescued | M5 winners capped | M5 net | M15 losers rescued | M15 winners capped | M15 net |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 0.50R | 142 (+118.0R) | 267 (−259.2R) | +45.4 | 102 (+118.5R) | 329 (−266.0R) | +58.6 |
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| 0.75R | 50 (+42.8R) | 203 (−201.4R) | +72.1 | 21 (+18.2R) | 244 (−194.6R) | +97.5 |
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| 1.00R | 3 (+4.8R) | 166 (−154.5R) | +97.3 | 2 (+2.4R) | 180 (−142.1R) | +128.5 |
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| 1.50R | 0 | 94 (−91.5R) | +117.2 | 0 | 97 (−74.7R) | +143.5 |
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| 2.00R | 0 | 53 (−56.2R) | +132.6 | 0 | 58 (−37.5R) | +152.2 |
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| actual (trailing) | | | **+146.1** | | | **+146.1** |
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A nearer target rescues losers but caps far more winners; the book's R lives in the right tail
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(top 5% of trades = 94–96% of R, cycle 1). Only a 2R hard target on M15 edges the trailing exit
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(+6R), which is the 2026-08-05 fixed-RR finding: it passes on 2024+ windows and is negative in
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2021 and 2023 with double the drawdown. Not re-proposed.
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## 3. Late entry: does chasing lose?
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No. Loss rate falls as the entry gets "later"; the pullback-style entries are the worst bucket.
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| Move over the previous 12 bars in the trade's direction | M5 trades | Loss rate | Avg R | M15 trades | Loss rate | Avg R |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Against the last 12 bars (pullback entry) | 5 | 80% | −0.39 | 14 | 64% | −0.13 |
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| 0 to 1 ATR | 60 | 50% | +0.18 | 43 | 44% | −0.06 |
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| 1 to 2 ATR | 157 | 50% | +0.14 | 148 | 38% | +0.23 |
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| 2 to 3 ATR | 180 | 42% | +0.28 | 288 | 41% | +0.19 |
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| 3 ATR or more (chased) | 379 | 47% | +0.17 | 438 | 38% | +0.14 |
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| Hourly stretch (distance above the 20-bar hourly mean) | M5 loss rate | M5 net R | M15 loss rate | M15 net R |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Below the mean | 49% | +19.4 | 43% | +12.7 |
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| 0 to 1 ATR | 50% | +21.9 | 45% | +25.0 |
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| 1 to 2 ATR | 47% | +42.6 | 41% | +52.4 |
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| 2 ATR or more (stretched) | 45% | +62.2 | 35% | +56.1 |
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Same picture for the 48-bar move (M5: 4 ATR or more = 44% loss rate and +128.5R of the +146.1R),
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the distance from the 21-bar average, consecutive closes and the exhaustion tags (two or more
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tags: 45% / 40% loss rate, the best bucket on M5). This is the 2026-08-04 age/stretch verdict
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again: the best trades are the stretched runs. "Late entry" is not a cause of losses here.
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## 4. Wrong direction: what predicted the wrong side?
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| Condition at entry | M5 trades | Loss rate | Net R | M15 trades | Loss rate | Net R |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Timeframes agreed | 579 | 46% | +128.4 | 897 | 39% | +135.3 |
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| Timeframes did not agree | 202 | 51% | +17.7 | 34 | 44% | +10.9 |
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| With the trend | 475 | 45% | +93.5 | 596 | 40% | +68.1 |
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| No trend, ranging | 169 | 49% | +25.7 | 120 | 37% | +47.0 |
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| No trend, transitioning | 76 | 51% | +24.0 | 213 | 41% | +31.7 |
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| No trend, mixed trending | 61 | 54% | +2.9 | (blocked on M15) | | |
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| Confidence penalty 20 points or more | 94 | 55% | −3.3 | 11 | 64% | −0.4 |
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| Buy | 683 | 47% | +137.3 | 635 | 37% | +146.6 |
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| Sell | 98 | 49% | +8.8 | 296 | 46% | −0.5 |
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- Disagreement between timeframes and a mixed regime raise the loss rate by about 5 points on M5
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and remove most of the average R; the heavily penalised entries (20+ points) are net negative
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on both books but are few.
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- Indicator opposition does not predict the wrong side: the M5 bucket with **no** opposing
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indicator loses most often (58%, 40 trades). Direction was not "obviously wrong" at entry.
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- M15 shorts: 296 trades, 46% losers, −0.5R net. Every M15 R came from buys. This is the parked
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cycle-2 candidate (`cycle_2026-09-10.md`); unchanged status.
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## 5. When we lost
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Entry hour is the open of the bar after the signal bar (Coordinated Universal Time). Cells under
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30 trades are noise.
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| M5 hour | Trades | Loss rate | Net R | | M15 hour | Trades | Loss rate | Net R |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 08:00 | 62 | 55% | −0.7 | | 07:00 | 68 | 47% | −4.1 |
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| 14:00 | 117 | 53% | +4.7 | | 09:00 | 75 | 47% | +3.8 |
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| 17:00 | 35 | 49% | −4.0 | | 18:00 | 45 | 47% | −2.1 |
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| 22:00 | 31 | 55% | +4.0 | | 04:00 | 28 | 43% | +1.9 |
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| 20:00 | 42 | 52% | +30.1 | | 14:00 | 154 | 40% | +16.9 |
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| 06:00 | 60 | 40% | +26.5 | | 12:00 | 68 | 31% | +33.8 |
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The weakest hours are 08:00 and 17:00 on M5 (14:00 is the busiest hour and carries the most
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loss R, −44.9R, at a 53% loss rate but still nets +4.7R) and 07:00, 09:00 and 18:00 on M15. No
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hour is both large and clearly negative; 20:00 on M5 loses 52% of the time and is the second
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best hour by R (+30.1R), which is the whole shape of this edge.
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| Weekday | M5 trades | Loss rate | Net R | M15 trades | Loss rate | Net R |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Monday | 153 | 45% | +17.6 | 169 | 39% | +28.2 |
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| Tuesday | 159 | 48% | +21.3 | 212 | 33% | +50.4 |
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| Wednesday | 176 | 45% | +46.6 | 189 | **51%** | **−4.0** |
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| Thursday | 135 | 51% | +9.2 | 179 | 40% | +30.6 |
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| Friday | 151 | 48% | +47.7 | 169 | 36% | +34.2 |
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Wednesday is the one clear day effect: on M15 it loses more than half the time and is the only
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negative weekday (−86.2R of loss R, the worst of any day); the worst M15 weekday-hour cells are
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all Wednesday (14:00: 26 trades, 16 losers, −7.2R; 18:00: 13, 8, −4.7R; 09:00: 20, 14, −3.3R;
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08:00: 16, 9, −3.0R). On M5 Wednesday is fine (+46.6R) and Thursday 20:00 is the worst cell (11
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trades, 9 losers, −6.5R).
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Calendar-day clusters are not the story: the ten worst days hold 11% (M5) and 9% (M15) of all
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loss R, no single day cost more than −4.2R, and only 27 of 333 (M5) and 15 of 449 (M15) entry
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days had three or more losers. Losers entered within two hours of the previous loser (re-entries
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into the same move): M5 46 (−39.5R, 14% of loss R), M15 22 (−21.7R, 6%). By month, July is
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negative on M15 in both years (2025-07 −7.5R at 57% losers, 2026-07 −8.6R at 58%) and M5 lost in
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2024-Q4 and 2025-07/08.
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## 6. Summary for the owner
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| Question | Answer (both books unless stated) |
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|---|---|
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| Wrong direction? | Yes for about 43% of losers by count and about half of the loss R: they never moved a quarter of the risk our way and were stopped within 12–18 bars. Nothing at entry flagged them: indicator opposition does not predict it, timeframe disagreement and mixed regimes add only ~5 points of loss rate. |
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| Late entry? | No. Loss rate falls as the prior move grows; the few pullback-style entries lose 64–80%. Stretched entries carry most of the R. (Confirms the 2026-08-04 verdict.) |
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| Target too far, market reversed first? | Rarely the cause of a loss: reversals after a 0.75R advance cost 1–2% of loss R because the trailing stop limits them. About a third of losers were up at least half the target-1 distance before losing; a nearer hard target would rescue them but cap far more winners (net +45R to +133R against +146R). |
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| Bad hours? | M5: 08:00 and 17:00 lose most often; 14:00 carries the most loss R but nets positive. M15: 07:00, 09:00 and 18:00. No large hour is clearly negative. |
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| Bad days? | Wednesday on M15 (51% losers, −4.0R net, all four worst weekday-hour cells). Not a single-day-cluster problem on either book. |
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None of this is a change proposal. A Wednesday or hour block on M15, or a shorter M15 SELL list,
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would each be a rule-1 campaign with a control run, the OOS window and the refuted-hypothesis
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list in mind (the 2026-07 M15 loss analysis rejected several hour variants). The most useful
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follow-up, if any, is the parked M15 grade-A SELL block, which this table supports without
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adding to it.
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# Risk-reward floor and M15 grade-A SELL block — pre-registered campaign, 2026-09-26
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Owner questions (2026-09-26): plans sometimes show a target smaller than the stop (RR 0.75 / 0.5);
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and "we still lose money". The live review of `logs/signals.db` (2026-09-04 → 2026-09-25, 100
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unique setups replayed on the scans' own stored candles) found: no stop-hunt signature (52 stop-outs,
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71% ran ≥ 1R past the stop, the same as the books' 70–72%); −25.1R of the −37.8R raw live book were
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consecutive-bar re-entries the backtester's 5-bar cooldown never takes; the cooldown view
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(−12.7R / 57) sits at the 3rd–5th percentile of three-week windows of the two-year books.
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This file was written BEFORE any candidate run. Rules first, results appended below them.
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## Harness
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`venv/bin/python backtest/cudaBasedBacktesting.py --pair XAUUSD --primary-tf <tf> --start <s>
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--end <e> --spread <0.65|0.30> [--set ...] --export-csv <out>` (CUDA research twin; its parity
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with `gpu_backtest.py` was re-proven today: the M15 and M5 two-year controls reproduce the pinned
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MD5s `b4aa07e33e17e23774c486a6900d673b` and `49f8e602fc6ae769713c94ef7b257810`). Factory
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configuration; `--set` is the only override. A passing candidate is re-run once on
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`gpu_backtest.py` before it ships and the two MD5s must be equal.
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Windows: W2 2024-09-05 → 2026-09-05 (halves split at 2025-09-05); OOS 2024-06-01 → 2025-03-30
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(halves at the midpoint 2024-10-30); W3 2023-09-05 → 2026-09-05 (the owner's 3-year maximum,
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halves at 2025-03-05; used for the max-DD clause). Costs $0.65 (headline) and $0.30.
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## Candidates
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| # | TF | `--set` | Hypothesis |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| B1 | M15 | `signals.min_rr_ratio=1.0` | Vetoes the grade-A XAU_ATR plan (RR 0.75 / 0.5); the signal falls through to the GENERIC swing setup whose M15 floor is already 1R. Every M15 plan then shows RR ≥ 1. Two-year book: XAU_ATR 174 / +5.7R / 24% wrong-direction vs GENERIC 757 / +140.5R / 16% |
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| B2 | M5 | `signals.tp_floor_rr=1.0` | Retest of the 1R target floor on M5 (failed 2026-07-11 on Twelve Data bars at $0.30). Expected to fail again: it lifts low-ATR targets past the $9 spread gate |
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| B3 | M15 | `xau_strategy.sell_min_quality=["A+","B"]` | Parked cycle-2 candidate: M15 grade-A SELLs 230 / −14.4R, negative in y1, y2, y3 and OOS (cycle_2026-09-10.md). Counter-fact on record: those shorts paid in 2021–22 |
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| B4 | M15 | B1 + B3 | The shipped combination if both pass alone |
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## Acceptance rule (CLAUDE.md rule 1, written before the runs)
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A candidate PASSES only if, at $0.65, on W2: (a) total R ≥ control + 5R; (b) both halves ≥ the
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control's halves − 1R (no half may fund the other); (c) PF ≥ 1.3 and ≥ control − 0.02; (d) OOS
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total R ≥ control − 1R; (e) W3 max drawdown ≤ control + 10%; (f) the same sign of ΔR at $0.30.
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A candidate that changes fewer than 20 trades on W2 is "no evidence", not a pass. B4 must pass
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the rule on its own numbers, not by inheritance.
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Judge run-level numbers, never the added/removed bucket alone (the 5-bar cooldown displaces
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entries). Trade diff keyed on (entry time, direction).
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## Results (all runs on the CUDA twin, `Backend: CuPy GPU (NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 SUPER, cupy 14.0.1)`, 0 cache fallbacks; controls reproduce the pinned MD5s)
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| TF | Window | Cost | Candidate | Trades | Total R | H1 | H2 | WR | PF | Max DD | MD5 (8) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| M15 | W2 | $0.65 | control | 931 | +146.14 | +66.14 | +80.00 | 60.5% | 1.43 | 16.1 | b4aa07e3 |
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| M15 | W2 | $0.65 | B1 | 931 | +144.16 | +65.09 | +79.07 | 60.3% | 1.42 | 16.1 | 80428e98 |
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| M15 | W2 | $0.65 | **B3** | 813 | **+154.15** | +70.10 | +84.04 | 62.2% | 1.53 | 15.6 | 497520ef |
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| M15 | W2 | $0.65 | B4 | 813 | +153.41 | +70.73 | +82.68 | 62.1% | 1.53 | 15.6 | 177b716d |
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| M15 | W2 | $0.30 | control | 931 | +161.44 | +75.63 | +85.81 | 61.0% | 1.48 | 14.9 | 6bdea010 |
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| M15 | W2 | $0.30 | B1 | 931 | +158.17 | +74.41 | +83.75 | 60.7% | 1.47 | 14.9 | 21dcfc9e |
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| M15 | W2 | $0.30 | B3 | 813 | +167.53 | +78.61 | +88.91 | 62.6% | 1.59 | 14.5 | aff050f7 |
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| M15 | W2 | $0.30 | B4 | 813 | +166.06 | +79.12 | +86.95 | 62.5% | 1.58 | 14.8 | 03a412b8 |
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| M15 | OOS | $0.65 | control | 355 | +60.67 | +9.14 | +51.52 | 60.8% | 1.49 | 17.1 | 9fd624fb |
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| M15 | OOS | $0.65 | B1 | 355 | +60.67 | +9.14 | +51.52 | 60.8% | 1.49 | 17.1 | 9fd624fb (identical) |
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| M15 | OOS | $0.65 | B3 = B4 | 313 | +68.50 | +18.87 | +49.63 | 63.6% | 1.67 | 12.4 | 09b8a8e7 |
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| M15 | OOS | $0.30 | control | 355 | +69.18 | +13.48 | +55.70 | 61.7% | 1.57 | 14.9 | 30a82817 |
|
||||
| M15 | OOS | $0.30 | B3 = B4 | 313 | +76.21 | +22.92 | +53.29 | 64.5% | 1.77 | 11.1 | 5fc34cef |
|
||||
| M15 | W3 | $0.65 | control | 1273 | +186.61 | +75.87 | +110.74 | 59.4% | 1.39 | 19.3 | 5194e5d4 |
|
||||
| M15 | W3 | $0.65 | B1 | 1273 | +183.78 | +75.83 | +107.95 | 59.2% | 1.39 | 19.3 | 2d5cfc31 |
|
||||
| M15 | W3 | $0.65 | B3 | 1105 | +195.79 | +76.87 | +118.92 | 61.1% | 1.49 | 20.9 | 8bed7199 |
|
||||
| M15 | W3 | $0.65 | B4 | 1105 | +194.19 | +76.00 | +118.18 | 61.0% | 1.48 | 20.9 | 05201726 |
|
||||
| M15 | W3 | $0.30 | control / B1 / B3 / B4 | 1273 / 1273 / 1105 / 1105 | +210.42 / +206.25 / +216.53 / +214.19 | | | | 1.45 / 1.44 / 1.55 / 1.54 | 17.7 / 17.7 / 19.6 / 19.6 | |
|
||||
| M5 | W2 | $0.65 | control | 781 | +146.07 | +26.42 | +119.65 | 52.9% | 1.52 | 10.1 | 49f8e602 |
|
||||
| M5 | W2 | $0.65 | B2 | 1105 | +194.94 | +54.11 | +140.83 | 53.6% | 1.50 | 15.9 | 351f9eee |
|
||||
| M5 | W2 | $0.30 | control / B2 | 781 / 1105 | +162.09 / +220.32 | +31.71 / +65.22 | +130.37 / +155.10 | | 1.60 / 1.58 | 8.9 / 13.7 | |
|
||||
| M5 | OOS | $0.65 | control | 86 | +9.47 | +0.01 | +9.46 | 53.5% | 1.33 | 8.2 | da497d74 |
|
||||
| M5 | OOS | $0.65 | B2 | 235 | +13.17 | −6.01 | +19.18 | 52.3% | 1.17 | 12.3 | 3cece33b |
|
||||
| M5 | OOS | $0.30 | control / B2 | 86 / 235 | +12.42 / +20.66 | +1.65 / −2.04 | +10.77 / +22.69 | | 1.46 / 1.28 | 6.7 / 9.5 | |
|
||||
| M5 | W3 | $0.65 | control | 870 | +153.64 | +16.73 | +136.91 | 53.3% | 1.50 | 10.1 | 408de695 |
|
||||
| M5 | W3 | $0.65 | B2 | 1333 | +223.87 | +47.49 | +176.38 | 53.4% | 1.48 | 15.9 | f89176d6 |
|
||||
| M5 | W3 | $0.30 | control / B2 | 870 / 1333 | +172.40 / +256.20 | | | | 1.57 / 1.56 | 8.9 / 13.7 | |
|
||||
|
||||
Trade diffs on W2 at $0.65 (key = entry time + direction):
|
||||
- B1: 0 added, 0 removed, 931 common. The 158 grade-A XAU_ATR setups become GENERIC (strategy
|
||||
mix 915 / 16 vs 757 / 174); same bars, same direction, a swing-anchored stop instead of 2 × ATR.
|
||||
- B3: 162 removed (−8.11R, all grade-A SELLs), 44 added (−0.11R, cooldown displacement), 769 common.
|
||||
Direction mix 635 BUY / 178 SELL vs 635 / 296.
|
||||
- B2: 392 added (+63.63R), 68 removed (+17.23R), 713 common.
|
||||
|
||||
### Verdicts against the pre-registered rule
|
||||
|
||||
| # | (a) ΔR ≥ +5 W2 | (b) halves | (c) PF | (d) OOS | (e) W3 DD ≤ +10% | (f) $0.30 sign | Verdict |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| B1 | −2.0 ✗ | −1.05 / −0.93 ✓ | 1.42 ✓ | 0 ✓ | 19.3 ✓ | −3.3 ✓ | **FAIL (a)**. Trade-identical; the GENERIC stop is not better than the 2 × ATR stop on the same grade-A signals (W3 −2.8R). Not shipped |
|
||||
| B2 | +48.9 ✓ | +27.7 / +21.2 ✓ | 1.50 ✓ (−0.02) | +3.7 ✓ (but OOS PF 1.17, OOS H1 −6.0) | 15.9 vs 10.1 = +57% ✗ | +58.2 ✓ | **FAIL (e)**. Owner's call, see the ladder below |
|
||||
| B3 | +8.0 ✓ | +4.0 / +4.0 ✓ | 1.53 ✓ | +7.8 ✓ | 20.9 vs 19.3 = +8% ✓ | +6.1 ✓ | **PASS a–f — SHIPPED** |
|
||||
| B4 | +7.3 ✓ | ✓ | 1.53 ✓ | +7.8 ✓ | +8% ✓ | +4.6 ✓ | Passes, but 0.7R below B3 alone on W2 and 1.6R on W3; B1's part adds nothing. Not shipped |
|
||||
|
||||
B3 per year on W3 ($0.65, control → B3): 2023 (Sep–Dec) +13.2 → +10.8; 2024 +52.9 → +53.3;
|
||||
2025 +77.3 → +81.2; 2026 (to Sep 5) +43.2 → +50.5. Removed grade-A SELLs by year: 2023 15 / +1.4R,
|
||||
2024 76 / −1.3R, 2025 79 / −8.6R, 2026 60 / −5.8R. The max-DD episode is the same one in both books
|
||||
(2023-12-01 → 2024-02-23), 19.3R → 20.9R. M15 SELLs remaining under B3 on W3: A+ 19 / +2.6R,
|
||||
B 217 / −8.6R. The 5-year fact on the other side of the scale stands (shorts paid in 2021–22).
|
||||
|
||||
### M5 target-floor ladder (informational, run after B2's verdict; NOT pre-registered, NOT shipped)
|
||||
|
||||
`--set signals.tp_floor_rr=<x>` on M5, $0.65:
|
||||
|
||||
| Floor | W2 trades / R / PF / DD | OOS trades / R / PF / DD | W3 trades / R / PF / DD |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 0.5 (shipped) | 781 / +146.1 / 1.52 / 10.1 | 86 / +9.5 / 1.33 / 8.2 | 870 / +153.6 / 1.50 / 10.1 |
|
||||
| 0.6 | 868 / +159.1 / 1.51 / 10.2 | 105 / +1.5 / 1.04 / 12.5 | 979 / +164.5 / 1.46 / 17.1 |
|
||||
| 0.75 | 975 / +192.4 / 1.57 / 13.4 | 147 / +13.5 / 1.31 / 9.4 | 1133 / +211.6 / 1.54 / 13.4 |
|
||||
| 0.9 | 1053 / +209.3 / 1.58 / 13.5 | 194 / +22.8 / 1.41 / 7.5 | 1252 / +238.7 / 1.55 / 13.5 |
|
||||
| 1.0 (B2) | 1105 / +194.9 / 1.50 / 15.9 | 235 / +13.2 / 1.17 / 12.3 | 1333 / +223.9 / 1.48 / 15.9 |
|
||||
|
||||
Reading: the 2026-07-11 verdict ("a 1R floor hurts M5") was made on Twelve Data bars at $0.30 with
|
||||
the pre-relaxation gates and the pullback entries on; on Oanda bars at $0.65 with today's gates the
|
||||
floor lifts small-ATR targets past the $9 spread gate and those trades earn (B2 added trades on W3:
|
||||
554 / +90.8R, 53% winners, median stop $12 vs $20, 962 of 1,105 plans at exactly RR 1.0; positive
|
||||
in every year; by volatility regime extreme +44.6R, low +32.0R, normal +14.2R). The cost is a deeper
|
||||
drawdown in the same May–July 2026 episode (10.1R → 13.4–15.9R) and a non-monotone ladder (0.9 beats
|
||||
1.0 on every window, 0.6 is worse than 0.5 out of sample), which is why nothing from it ships now.
|
||||
If the owner wants M5 plans at RR ≥ 1 (the original request), the honest candidate is a fresh
|
||||
pre-registered run at ONE value chosen before looking (0.75 or 1.0), with the DD clause waived
|
||||
explicitly as on 2026-07-21, plus the cost ladder ($0.80, $1.00) because the added trades carry
|
||||
$12 stops. Until then M5 plans keep 0.5R guides and the alert says so.
|
||||
|
||||
## Shipped (2026-09-26)
|
||||
|
||||
1. **A1 — alert cooldown** (`telegram_bot.py`): no new alert on a timeframe within 5 bars of the
|
||||
last alerted setup's bar, `_ALERT_COOLDOWN_BARS = 5` = `backtest.cooldown_bars`. Book-neutral.
|
||||
2. **A2 — alert wording** (`telegram_bot.py`, `main.py`, `docs/user_guide.html`): the trail is
|
||||
printed first as the tested exit; TP1/TP2 are guides with their R; "Planned TP1 RR"; one
|
||||
validated-book line per setup class from `agent_panel_base_rates.json`. Book-neutral.
|
||||
3. **B3 — M15 grade-A SELL block** (`pair_signals/xauusd.py`, M15 override 6). Re-pins the M15
|
||||
books (below).
|
||||
4. **XAU_ATR target floor** (`signal_aggregator._generate_xau_atr_trade_setup`, mirrored in
|
||||
`cuda_signal_kernels.py` K2): the gold ATR generator now honours `tp_floor_rr` like the GENERIC
|
||||
one, compared as multipliers so the non-binding case is bit-identical. Binds only on M15 (floor
|
||||
1R): grade-A plans print TP1 at 2 × ATR = 1R instead of 1.5 × ATR = 0.75R. TP1 is advisory in the
|
||||
backtester, so the only book effect is through the $9 spread gate (parity MD5s below).
|
||||
|
||||
## Addendum (same day): printed-target floor extended to every generator
|
||||
|
||||
Owner rule: "make sure TP1 is at least 1:1". Shipped as `signals.tp_print_floor_rr = 1.0`
|
||||
(effective floor `max(tp_floor_rr, tp_print_floor_rr)`), applied after the min-RR and spread gates in
|
||||
the gold ATR, GENERIC and chart-pattern generators (Python and CUDA K2). Label-only by construction
|
||||
and by measurement (twin books vs the previous pins, same code otherwise):
|
||||
|
||||
| Book | Rows | R before → after | Columns that differ | Rows with a new `tp1` | min `rr_planned` before → after |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| M5 W2 | 781 | +146.07 → +146.07 | `tp1`, `rr_planned` | 544 (GENERIC 408, XAU_CP 105, XAU_ATR 31) | 0.5 → 1.0 |
|
||||
| M15 W2 | 813 | +154.15 → +154.15 | none | 0 | 1.0 → 1.0 |
|
||||
| H1 W3 | 253 | +70.02 → +70.02 | `tp1`, `rr_planned` | 252 | 0.5 → 1.0 |
|
||||
| H4 W3 | 114 | +21.68 → +21.68 | `tp1`, `rr_planned` | 108 | 0.5 → 1.0 |
|
||||
|
||||
New pins: M5 W2 `e599c8a8652f95b7fcdf5a7ef2b564f5`, H1 W3 `a44fd19b4067f46e5bd98d50cc3eff92`,
|
||||
H4 W3 `f3587bae3c5dc3eda468ea3588b17dcb`; M15 W2 `5b65ecf6…` and OOS `09b8a8e7…` unchanged. Reference
|
||||
script MD5s: see the parity lines appended below. The gated floor (`tp_floor_rr`, 0.5 on M5 / 1.0 on
|
||||
M15) is untouched: raising it is the B2 question above, a book change, and remains the owner's call.
|
||||
|
||||
## Addendum 2 (same day): consistency checks on `signals.db` — two delivery bugs fixed
|
||||
|
||||
Read-only checks over the 8,453 rows (2026-09-04 → 09-25): scan latency (median 10–15 s after the
|
||||
candle close on every timeframe; 2–3% of rows read the previous bar, all in 18–22 UTC around the
|
||||
Labor Day gap and the settlement pause), `actionable` / setup consistency (clean), gate reasons for
|
||||
actionable grades without a setup (all `SPREAD GATE`, small-ATR M5 bars), outcome states (97 resolved,
|
||||
36 duplicates, 1 unresolvable for a candle gap), scan-outcome labelling (7,054 of 7,634 complete),
|
||||
8 `failed` scans (Oanda "primary timeframe data unavailable", notably 06:11–06:17 UTC on both Sep 15
|
||||
and Sep 16), dashboard-vs-bot disagreement on the same bar (4 bars of 3,300).
|
||||
|
||||
Two bugs, both fixed and tested, books untouched:
|
||||
|
||||
1. **Panel probability never stored under `verdict_source: "macro"`** (the live setting): all 33 v2
|
||||
rows had `panel_probability` NULL although `panel_probs_json` carried the macro persona's `p_win`.
|
||||
Cause: the macro-source `PanelVerdict` carried no `probability`, `_write_fields` wrote 0.0 and the
|
||||
logger's `probability if probability else None` dropped it. Fix: the macro verdict's probability is
|
||||
the macro take's `p_win` (`agent_panel.run_panel`). Without it the planned re-evaluation at 100 /
|
||||
300 outcomes would have had no live probabilities to score.
|
||||
2. **Breach rescans re-log the last pre-pause M15 bar.** Every evening the 20:45 UTC bar was logged
|
||||
again at 22:01, 22:06 and 22:11 (Sep 17–24) by the tick-driven level-breach rescan: the first
|
||||
post-pause bar closes at 22:15, so the frame still ends at 20:45. The candle loop already skips
|
||||
that window (`_closed_bar_in_settlement`); `_handle_breach` now applies the same guard. Cosmetic
|
||||
for alerts (dedup + cooldown), but it polluted the log's per-bar dedup and the parity reports.
|
||||
|
||||
Not bugs, recorded: 380 `blocked` weekend rows on Sep 20 carry no `bar_ts` by design; the 43× repeat of
|
||||
the Sep 7 18:25 M5 bar is the known holiday gap (no holiday calendar); the H4 loop produced no setup
|
||||
in three weeks (its two tradeable close hours).
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,614 @@
|
||||
# Wrong-direction losers: source, indicator values and timing — two-year M5 and M15 books, 2026-09-18
|
||||
|
||||
Follow-up to `loss_anatomy_2026-09-18.md`. Owner questions: (1) do the wrong-direction losers come
|
||||
from chart patterns or from indicator-driven setups, (2) what did each indicator read on those
|
||||
trades compared with the trades that got the direction right, (3) were there hours or days when
|
||||
the direction was wrong more often. Same two-year books (2024-09-05 → 2026-09-05, $0.65),
|
||||
regenerated on the CUDA twin with `--record --export-features`; the recorder's `indicators`
|
||||
table holds every indicator's vote, value, confidence, effective weight and contribution on the
|
||||
primary and both confirmation timeframes for every accepted trade. In-book statistics; no decision.
|
||||
|
||||
## 5min: 781 trades — 153 wrong-direction losers (20%), 215 other losers, 413 winners
|
||||
|
||||
Wrong direction = a losing trade whose best excursion never reached a quarter of the initial risk.
|
||||
|
||||
### 1. Where the wrong-direction trades came from (5min)
|
||||
|
||||
| Setup type | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate | Share of all wrong-direction | Other losers | Winners | Net R |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| GENERIC | 411 | 73 | 18% | 48% | 115 | 223 | +80.9 |
|
||||
| XAU_ATR | 32 | 6 | 19% | 4% | 9 | 17 | +8.9 |
|
||||
| XAU_CP | 338 | 74 | 22% | 48% | 91 | 173 | +56.3 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart patterns (5min):
|
||||
|
||||
| Pattern | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate | Winners | Net R |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| bull_flag | 166 | 35 | 21% | 87 | +30.2 |
|
||||
| double_bottom | 86 | 15 | 17% | 49 | +21.5 |
|
||||
| inv_hs | 86 | 24 | 28% | 37 | +4.6 |
|
||||
|
||||
By grade and by regime (5min):
|
||||
|
||||
| Grade | Trades | Wrong-direction rate | | Regime | Trades | Wrong-direction rate |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| A | 187 | 18% | ranging | 169 | 22% |
|
||||
| A+ | 1 | 0% | transitioning | 76 | 20% |
|
||||
| B | 572 | 20% | trending | 61 | 21% |
|
||||
| C | 21 | 29% | trending_down | 95 | 18% |
|
||||
| | | | trending_up | 380 | 19% |
|
||||
|
||||
By direction: BUY: 683 trades, 20% wrong-direction; SELL: 98 trades, 17% wrong-direction.
|
||||
|
||||
### 2. The signal itself at entry (5min): wrong-direction losers vs winners
|
||||
|
||||
Values signed in the trade's direction where a sign applies (positive = in the trade's favour). The separation column is the probability that a random winner shows a higher value than a random wrong-direction loser: 0.50 means the measure does not separate them at all.
|
||||
|
||||
| Measure | Wrong-direction median | Winner median | Other-loser median | Separation |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Composite score of the primary timeframe (in trade direction) | +31.75 | +33.07 | +32.77 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Final score after the multi-timeframe blend (in trade direction) | +29.05 | +30.08 | +29.63 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Final confidence | +53.97 | +54.66 | +53.65 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| Composite score of confirmation 1 (in trade direction) | +20.56 | +20.60 | +18.22 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| Composite score of confirmation 2 (in trade direction) | +16.99 | +16.50 | +17.34 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Indicators agreeing (count) | +4.00 | +5.00 | +4.00 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| Indicators opposing (count) | +1.00 | +1.00 | +1.00 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Confidence penalty (points) | +16.94 | +16.62 | +16.62 | 0.50 |
|
||||
| Exhaustion tags | +2.00 | +3.00 | +2.00 | 0.55 |
|
||||
| Primary ATR as % of price | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.13 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Prior 12-bar move in trade direction (ATR) | +2.91 | +2.92 | +2.90 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Hourly stretch (ATR) | +1.56 | +1.51 | +1.43 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Planned target 1 (R) | +0.73 | +0.50 | +0.53 | 0.46 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 3a. Each indicator on the primary timeframe (5min)
|
||||
|
||||
Agree = the indicator voted in the trade's direction; oppose = against. Value is signed in the trade's direction (RSI minus 50, Bollinger position minus 0.5, MACD and Keltner in ATR units, EMA alignment, rate of change in percent; ADX is unsigned strength). Contribution = the indicator's weighted score in the trade's favour.
|
||||
|
||||
| Indicator | Present (wrong / win) | Agree % (wrong / win) | Oppose % (wrong / win) | Median value (wrong / win) | Median confidence (wrong / win) | Mean contribution (wrong / win) | Separation of value |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| EMA trend (alignment) | 100% / 100% | 78% / 82% | 0% / 0% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 90 / 90 | +2.38 / +2.57 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| RSI | 100% / 100% | 6% / 8% | 20% / 18% | +18.33 / +20.61 | 30 / 30 | -0.14 / -0.11 | 0.56 |
|
||||
| Bollinger position | 100% / 100% | 0% / 0% | 93% / 95% | +0.47 / +0.47 | 45 / 45 | -0.60 / -0.59 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| ADX (trend strength) | 100% / 100% | 63% / 69% | 3% / 1% | +29.88 / +30.40 | 70 / 70 | +0.17 / +0.19 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| MACD histogram | 100% / 100% | 84% / 86% | 0% / 0% | +0.19 / +0.18 | 67 / 66 | +3.22 / +3.35 | 0.50 |
|
||||
| Rate of change | 100% / 100% | 76% / 77% | 1% / 1% | +0.29 / +0.32 | 52 / 52 | +0.83 / +0.83 | 0.55 |
|
||||
| Keltner extension | 100% / 100% | 73% / 80% | 0% / 0% | +2.08 / +2.21 | 65 / 65 | +1.29 / +1.44 | 0.55 |
|
||||
| Divergence | 24% / 34% | 36% / 28% | 64% / 70% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 70 / 70 | -0.10 / -0.39 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| Candlestick | 35% / 30% | 93% / 90% | 0% / 0% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 50 / 50 | +0.40 / +0.39 | 0.48 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 3b. Each indicator on the first confirmation timeframe
|
||||
|
||||
Agree = the indicator voted in the trade's direction; oppose = against. Value is signed in the trade's direction (RSI minus 50, Bollinger position minus 0.5, MACD and Keltner in ATR units, EMA alignment, rate of change in percent; ADX is unsigned strength). Contribution = the indicator's weighted score in the trade's favour.
|
||||
|
||||
| Indicator | Present (wrong / win) | Agree % (wrong / win) | Oppose % (wrong / win) | Median value (wrong / win) | Median confidence (wrong / win) | Mean contribution (wrong / win) | Separation of value |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| EMA trend (alignment) | 100% / 100% | 57% / 62% | 1% / 2% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 90 / 90 | +1.56 / +1.60 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| RSI | 100% / 100% | 11% / 6% | 22% / 33% | +16.43 / +17.10 | 30 / 30 | -0.13 / -0.28 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Bollinger position | 100% / 100% | 1% / 0% | 71% / 79% | +0.43 / +0.46 | 45 / 45 | -0.46 / -0.58 | 0.55 |
|
||||
| ADX (trend strength) | 100% / 100% | 51% / 47% | 10% / 6% | +27.18 / +25.70 | 55 / 55 | +0.12 / +0.11 | 0.46 |
|
||||
| MACD histogram | 100% / 100% | 61% / 70% | 3% / 2% | +0.16 / +0.19 | 61 / 65 | +2.29 / +2.68 | 0.55 |
|
||||
| Rate of change | 100% / 100% | 63% / 65% | 7% / 4% | +0.38 / +0.45 | 53 / 53 | +0.64 / +0.71 | 0.55 |
|
||||
| Keltner extension | 100% / 100% | 60% / 67% | 0% / 1% | +1.78 / +1.92 | 65 / 65 | +1.17 / +1.33 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Divergence | 38% / 36% | 24% / 40% | 71% / 60% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 70 / 70 | -0.67 / -0.09 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Candlestick | 34% / 35% | 65% / 71% | 10% / 6% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 50 / 50 | +0.25 / +0.29 | 0.53 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 3c. Each indicator on the second confirmation timeframe
|
||||
|
||||
Agree = the indicator voted in the trade's direction; oppose = against. Value is signed in the trade's direction (RSI minus 50, Bollinger position minus 0.5, MACD and Keltner in ATR units, EMA alignment, rate of change in percent; ADX is unsigned strength). Contribution = the indicator's weighted score in the trade's favour.
|
||||
|
||||
| Indicator | Present (wrong / win) | Agree % (wrong / win) | Oppose % (wrong / win) | Median value (wrong / win) | Median confidence (wrong / win) | Mean contribution (wrong / win) | Separation of value |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| EMA trend (alignment) | 100% / 100% | 41% / 45% | 5% / 6% | +0.50 / +0.50 | 50 / 90 | +0.94 / +1.04 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| RSI | 100% / 100% | 7% / 6% | 23% / 23% | +11.38 / +11.44 | 30 / 30 | -0.17 / -0.17 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Bollinger position | 100% / 100% | 7% / 5% | 58% / 62% | +0.37 / +0.37 | 45 / 45 | -0.39 / -0.42 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| ADX (trend strength) | 100% / 100% | 42% / 42% | 16% / 15% | +26.89 / +26.78 | 55 / 55 | +0.07 / +0.07 | 0.48 |
|
||||
| MACD histogram | 100% / 100% | 58% / 62% | 9% / 7% | +0.16 / +0.14 | 63 / 61 | +1.74 / +1.98 | 0.50 |
|
||||
| Rate of change | 100% / 100% | 60% / 67% | 10% / 10% | +0.59 / +0.66 | 55 / 56 | +0.69 / +0.80 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| Keltner extension | 100% / 100% | 48% / 44% | 3% / 3% | +1.26 / +1.31 | 65 / 60 | +0.86 / +0.68 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Divergence | 31% / 29% | 34% / 44% | 66% / 54% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 70 / 70 | -0.49 / -0.06 | 0.49 |
|
||||
| Candlestick | 27% / 30% | 73% / 70% | 10% / 10% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 50 / 50 | +0.29 / +0.27 | 0.48 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 4. When the direction was wrong (5min)
|
||||
|
||||
Base rate: 20% of all trades were wrong-direction losers. Cells under 20 trades are noise.
|
||||
|
||||
| Entry hour (Coordinated Universal Time) | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate | | Weekday | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 03:00 | 50 | 8 | 16% | Mon | 153 | 27 | 18% |
|
||||
| 04:00 | 30 | 7 | 23% | Tue | 159 | 35 | 22% |
|
||||
| 05:00 | 52 | 17 | 33% | Wed | 176 | 33 | 19% |
|
||||
| 06:00 | 60 | 9 | 15% | Thu | 135 | 28 | 21% |
|
||||
| 07:00 | 51 | 8 | 16% | Fri | 151 | 28 | 19% |
|
||||
| 08:00 | 62 | 15 | 24% | Sun | 7 | 2 | 29% |
|
||||
| 12:00 | 63 | 11 | 17% | | | | |
|
||||
| 14:00 | 117 | 22 | 19% | | | | |
|
||||
| 15:00 | 90 | 15 | 17% | | | | |
|
||||
| 17:00 | 35 | 8 | 23% | | | | |
|
||||
| 18:00 | 41 | 8 | 20% | | | | |
|
||||
| 19:00 | 45 | 7 | 16% | | | | |
|
||||
| 20:00 | 42 | 9 | 21% | | | | |
|
||||
| 21:00 | 12 | 3 | 25% | | | | |
|
||||
| 22:00 | 31 | 6 | 19% | | | | |
|
||||
|
||||
Weekday-hour cells with at least 10 trades and the highest wrong-direction rate (5min):
|
||||
|
||||
| Day | Hour | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Thu | 20:00 | 11 | 6 | 55% |
|
||||
| Tue | 05:00 | 16 | 8 | 50% |
|
||||
| Wed | 18:00 | 11 | 4 | 36% |
|
||||
| Wed | 08:00 | 17 | 6 | 35% |
|
||||
| Wed | 06:00 | 14 | 4 | 29% |
|
||||
| Thu | 12:00 | 14 | 4 | 29% |
|
||||
|
||||
Months with the highest wrong-direction rate: 2024-12 60% (3 of 5); 2025-08 33% (5 of 15); 2026-09 31% (4 of 13); 2025-09 27% (9 of 33).
|
||||
|
||||
### Appendix 5min: every wrong-direction loser with its primary-timeframe indicator values
|
||||
|
||||
Columns: entry time, setup (pattern), grade, direction, regime, final score in trade direction / confidence, then per indicator `signed value (vote)` where the vote is −2 strong sell … +2 strong buy; blank = the indicator did not vote. Values as defined in section 3. R = realised result.
|
||||
|
||||
| Entry | Setup | Grade | Dir | Regime | Score/Conf | EMA | RSI | Bollinger | ADX | MACD | ROC | Keltner | Div | Candle | R |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2024-09-13 17:05 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | ranging | +17/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.26 (-1) | +0.41 (-1) | +22.50 (+0) | +0.05 (+1) | +0.08 (+1) | +1.66 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2024-09-18 18:35 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +34/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +31.29 (+0) | +0.51 (-1) | +31.03 (+1) | +0.64 (+2) | +1.11 (+1) | +3.99 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2024-10-22 17:45 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | A | BUY | trending_up | +35/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.50 (+0) | +0.35 (-1) | +27.02 (+1) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.12 (+1) | +2.01 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2024-11-06 04:50 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +24/40 | +0.00 (+0) | +8.85 (+0) | +0.46 (-1) | +17.57 (+0) | +0.28 (+2) | +0.31 (+1) | +1.46 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2024-11-08 14:10 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | A | BUY | transitioning | +32/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +19.99 (+0) | +0.59 (-1) | +21.16 (+0) | +0.33 (+2) | +0.43 (+1) | +2.73 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2024-12-02 14:15 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | ranging | +14/36 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.74 (-1) | +0.53 (-1) | +18.08 (+0) | +0.15 (+2) | +0.14 (+0) | +1.97 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2024-12-09 15:15 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +28/47 | +1.00 (+2) | +31.38 (+0) | +0.42 (-1) | +43.81 (+1) | +0.21 (+0) | +0.38 (+1) | +2.69 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2024-12-26 15:50 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +35/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +29.64 (+0) | +0.42 (-1) | +35.94 (+1) | +0.41 (+2) | +0.30 (+1) | +3.30 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-25 14:05 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +43/41 | +1.00 (+2) | +28.08 (+0) | +0.58 (-1) | +26.66 (+1) | +0.40 (+2) | +0.31 (+1) | +3.17 (+1) | | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-09 19:45 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +31/65 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.01 (+0) | +0.41 (-1) | +24.65 (+0) | +0.37 (+2) | +1.01 (+1) | +2.11 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | +2.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-10 05:05 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | trending_up | +18/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.04 (+1) | +0.59 (-1) | +41.41 (+1) | -0.15 (+0) | +0.14 (+1) | +1.47 (+0) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-16 22:10 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +37/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +27.80 (+0) | +0.79 (-1) | +26.61 (+1) | +0.41 (+2) | +0.50 (+1) | +4.20 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-22 05:00 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +25/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +12.19 (+1) | -0.06 (+0) | +41.38 (+1) | -0.38 (+0) | +0.02 (+1) | +0.73 (+0) | | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-23 06:55 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +32/54 | +1.00 (-2) | +22.24 (+0) | +0.51 (+1) | +41.78 (-1) | +0.13 (-1) | +0.35 (-1) | +3.09 (-1) | | -2.00 (-1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-24 22:30 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +37/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +33.05 (+0) | +0.70 (-1) | +46.34 (+1) | +0.39 (+2) | +0.53 (+1) | +4.25 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-27 22:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/56 | +1.00 (+2) | +28.40 (+0) | +0.55 (-1) | +54.48 (+1) | +0.33 (+2) | +0.53 (+1) | +3.82 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-28 15:20 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +25/48 | +1.00 (+2) | +25.67 (+0) | +0.32 (-1) | +39.47 (+1) | +0.24 (+0) | +0.68 (+1) | +3.01 (+1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-28 18:50 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +21.76 (+0) | +0.43 (-1) | +34.69 (+1) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.41 (+1) | +2.28 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-06 20:55 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +41/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +26.50 (+0) | +0.57 (-1) | +31.62 (+1) | +0.33 (+2) | +0.34 (+1) | +3.85 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-13 05:15 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending | +25/55 | +0.50 (+0) | +33.63 (-1) | +0.57 (-1) | +38.02 (+1) | +0.54 (+2) | +0.74 (+1) | +4.77 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-16 12:10 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +30/54 | +1.00 (-2) | +20.02 (+0) | +0.35 (+1) | +49.72 (-1) | +0.13 (-2) | +0.51 (-1) | +2.45 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-21 05:55 | GENERIC | A | BUY | transitioning | +32/69 | +1.00 (+2) | +23.49 (-1) | +0.69 (-1) | +23.44 (+0) | +0.39 (+2) | +0.48 (+1) | +3.10 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-21 19:30 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | transitioning | +30/67 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.56 (-1) | +0.50 (-1) | +20.86 (+0) | +0.31 (+2) | +0.28 (+1) | +2.56 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-28 08:15 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | A | BUY | trending_up | +38/56 | +1.00 (+2) | +22.27 (+0) | +0.46 (-1) | +47.44 (+1) | +0.26 (+2) | +0.39 (+1) | +2.66 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-02 12:25 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | A | BUY | trending_up | +38/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.99 (+0) | +0.47 (-1) | +33.76 (+1) | +0.21 (+2) | +0.20 (+1) | +2.23 (+1) | | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-03 14:10 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +35/54 | +1.00 (-2) | +20.43 (+0) | +0.48 (+1) | +32.72 (-1) | +0.47 (-2) | +0.64 (+0) | +2.54 (-1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-06 04:50 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +40/39 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.30 (+0) | +0.31 (-1) | +27.03 (+1) | +0.07 (+2) | +0.12 (+1) | +1.83 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-13 06:40 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +13/61 | +0.50 (+0) | +6.92 (+0) | +0.44 (-1) | +18.37 (+0) | +0.14 (+2) | +0.13 (+1) | +0.85 (+0) | | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-14 07:30 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +23.25 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +27.82 (+1) | +0.34 (+2) | +0.39 (+1) | +3.23 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-14 14:55 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +34/52 | +1.00 (-2) | +17.02 (+0) | +0.45 (+1) | +54.01 (-1) | +0.24 (-2) | +0.30 (+0) | +2.27 (-1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-17 12:45 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +30/59 | +1.00 (-2) | +24.27 (+0) | +0.75 (+1) | +31.17 (-1) | +0.29 (-2) | +0.35 (-1) | +3.08 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-08-05 15:50 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +20/53 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.80 (+0) | +0.35 (-1) | +42.84 (+1) | -0.15 (+0) | +0.11 (+1) | +1.97 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-08-07 07:35 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +33/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +32.53 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +43.71 (+1) | +0.45 (+2) | +0.27 (+0) | +3.98 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-08-07 20:30 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +25/50 | +1.00 (+2) | +27.04 (+0) | +0.29 (+0) | +30.42 (+1) | +0.22 (+0) | +0.12 (+1) | +2.27 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-08-22 14:35 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +37/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +36.01 (+0) | +0.51 (-1) | +50.07 (+1) | +0.75 (+2) | +1.18 (+1) | +5.04 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | -0.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-08-28 12:10 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +38/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +21.43 (+0) | +0.42 (-1) | +35.24 (+1) | +0.31 (+2) | +0.26 (+1) | +2.80 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-03 18:10 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.49 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +39.40 (+1) | +0.04 (+1) | +0.15 (+1) | +2.59 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-04 05:00 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | trending | +9/0 | -0.50 (+0) | +1.00 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +40.71 (-1) | +0.33 (+2) | -0.01 (-1) | +0.52 (+0) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-09 05:40 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | A | BUY | trending_up | +37/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.70 (+1) | +0.38 (-1) | +30.75 (+1) | +0.05 (+2) | +0.08 (+1) | +1.87 (+1) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-12 14:05 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +9/25 | +1.00 (+2) | +13.89 (-1) | +0.31 (-1) | +15.85 (+0) | +0.19 (+2) | +0.09 (+1) | +1.22 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-17 18:10 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +33.30 (+0) | +0.97 (-1) | +25.59 (-1) | +0.26 (+2) | +0.63 (+1) | +2.93 (+0) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-22 18:25 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +23/48 | +1.00 (+2) | +23.92 (+0) | +0.32 (-1) | +45.99 (+1) | -0.07 (+0) | +0.12 (+0) | +2.29 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-25 12:25 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +15/21 | +1.00 (+2) | +5.24 (+0) | +0.20 (+0) | +16.32 (+0) | +0.16 (+2) | +0.08 (+0) | +0.67 (+0) | | | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-30 14:55 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending | +21/49 | +0.50 (+0) | +22.91 (-1) | +0.37 (-1) | +32.40 (+1) | +0.25 (+2) | +0.68 (+1) | +2.82 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-30 17:25 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | -7/24 | +1.00 (+2) | +12.12 (-1) | +0.34 (-1) | +18.10 (+0) | -0.01 (+0) | +0.09 (+0) | +1.04 (+0) | | +0.00 (+0) | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-01 08:20 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +39/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +29.73 (+0) | +0.55 (-1) | +31.76 (+1) | +0.57 (+2) | +0.57 (+1) | +4.37 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-06 05:10 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +40/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +25.52 (+0) | +0.55 (-1) | +57.26 (+1) | +0.15 (+2) | +0.39 (+1) | +3.07 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-09 05:35 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | ranging | +3/34 | +1.00 (+2) | +19.07 (-1) | +0.34 (-1) | +22.72 (+0) | -0.07 (+0) | +0.08 (+1) | +1.65 (+1) | | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-14 05:20 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +38/54 | +1.00 (+2) | +26.11 (+0) | +0.58 (-1) | +25.38 (+1) | +0.15 (+2) | +0.34 (+0) | +2.61 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-15 08:10 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +40/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +32.15 (+0) | +0.55 (-1) | +27.48 (+1) | +0.23 (+2) | +0.34 (+1) | +3.33 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-17 04:05 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +29/72 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.77 (-1) | +0.49 (-1) | +23.22 (+0) | +0.26 (+2) | +0.34 (+1) | +2.45 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-17 05:00 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | -4/48 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.91 (-1) | +0.52 (-1) | +18.94 (+0) | +0.01 (+1) | +0.05 (+1) | +2.03 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-21 03:40 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +22/33 | +0.00 (+0) | +2.55 (+0) | +0.26 (+0) | +21.77 (+0) | +0.25 (+2) | +0.28 (+1) | +0.53 (+0) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-23 14:10 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +35/53 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.86 (+0) | +0.39 (-1) | +27.39 (+1) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.31 (+1) | +1.83 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-23 18:15 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | +18/34 | +0.50 (+0) | +4.92 (+0) | +0.42 (-1) | +23.85 (+0) | +0.15 (+2) | +0.33 (+1) | +0.80 (+0) | +1.00 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-24 14:15 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending | +15/30 | +0.50 (+0) | +24.15 (-1) | +0.45 (-1) | +43.08 (+1) | +0.04 (+1) | +0.41 (+1) | +2.69 (+1) | | | -1.18 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-30 20:05 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +21/26 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.88 (+0) | +0.29 (+0) | +25.73 (+1) | -0.05 (+0) | +0.02 (+1) | +1.40 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-31 12:50 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +22.69 (+0) | +0.55 (-1) | +27.66 (+1) | +0.47 (+2) | +0.54 (+1) | +2.98 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-03 15:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/52 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.98 (+0) | +0.43 (-1) | +27.07 (+1) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.26 (+1) | +1.47 (+0) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-05 08:35 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +27/53 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.30 (+1) | +0.32 (-1) | +33.40 (+1) | +0.25 (+0) | +0.29 (+1) | +1.58 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-11 03:20 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +40/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.16 (+0) | +0.62 (-1) | +34.85 (+1) | +0.15 (+2) | +0.27 (+1) | +2.21 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-11 04:00 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +26/54 | +1.00 (+2) | +13.25 (+1) | +0.30 (-1) | +40.00 (+1) | +0.05 (+0) | +0.14 (+0) | +1.57 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-12 18:30 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | trending_up | +19/49 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.06 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +45.47 (+1) | -0.16 (+0) | +0.06 (+0) | +1.61 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-14 03:25 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending | +17/29 | +0.50 (+0) | +21.20 (-1) | +0.37 (-1) | +39.69 (+1) | +0.09 (+2) | +0.18 (+0) | +2.10 (+1) | | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-19 15:00 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +28/66 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.01 (-1) | +0.77 (-1) | +14.50 (+0) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.40 (+1) | +2.17 (+2) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-24 21:45 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +23/52 | +1.00 (+2) | +29.57 (+0) | +0.53 (-1) | +51.36 (+1) | -0.05 (+0) | +0.22 (+1) | +3.03 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-03 14:40 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +28/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +11.96 (+1) | +0.31 (-1) | +37.04 (+1) | +0.03 (+2) | +0.18 (+0) | +1.35 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-08 03:20 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | ranging | +16/37 | +0.50 (+0) | +15.10 (-1) | +0.46 (-1) | +20.01 (+0) | +0.24 (+2) | +0.22 (+1) | +1.64 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.08 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-12 14:55 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | -2/40 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.50 (-1) | +0.67 (-1) | +16.54 (+0) | +0.04 (+1) | +0.14 (+1) | +1.54 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-12 20:10 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +5/42 | +0.00 (+0) | +10.85 (-1) | +0.58 (-1) | +10.27 (+0) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.13 (+1) | +1.29 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-19 14:40 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | -1/37 | +1.00 (+2) | +10.55 (-1) | +0.52 (-1) | +14.44 (+0) | +0.06 (+1) | +0.10 (+1) | +1.30 (+0) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-22 14:20 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +35/50 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.35 (+0) | +0.36 (-1) | +27.17 (+1) | +0.11 (+2) | +0.20 (+0) | +1.70 (+1) | | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-24 15:45 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +32/54 | +1.00 (-2) | +18.47 (+0) | +0.52 (+1) | +44.48 (-1) | +0.18 (-2) | +0.27 (+0) | +2.24 (-1) | -1.00 (-1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-05 19:00 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | +3/36 | +1.00 (+2) | +7.10 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +9.67 (+0) | +0.04 (+1) | +0.07 (+0) | +0.85 (+0) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-08 21:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +30/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +22.66 (+0) | +0.36 (-1) | +37.50 (+1) | +0.46 (+0) | +0.43 (+1) | +2.73 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-13 14:50 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +29/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +23.19 (+0) | +0.61 (-1) | +39.89 (+1) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.48 (+1) | +2.96 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-15 03:30 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +36/54 | +1.00 (-2) | +18.63 (+0) | +0.51 (+1) | +35.24 (-1) | +0.28 (-2) | +0.45 (+0) | +2.10 (-1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-21 06:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +30/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +22.05 (+0) | +0.60 (-1) | +36.19 (+1) | -0.03 (+0) | +0.20 (+1) | +2.14 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-26 06:55 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +29/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.05 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +23.57 (+0) | +0.42 (+2) | +0.39 (+0) | +2.24 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-27 04:05 | GENERIC | B | BUY | ranging | +29/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +8.36 (+0) | +0.26 (+0) | +7.19 (+0) | +0.01 (+2) | +0.21 (+1) | +0.80 (+2) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-28 08:35 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +40/54 | +1.00 (+2) | +30.26 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +40.92 (+1) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.45 (+1) | +2.45 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-29 21:30 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending | +4/22 | +0.50 (+0) | +20.47 (-1) | +0.35 (-1) | +28.64 (+1) | +0.34 (+0) | +1.19 (+0) | +2.27 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-02 06:50 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +36/52 | +1.00 (-2) | +19.15 (+0) | +0.35 (+1) | +57.06 (-1) | +0.24 (+0) | +2.41 (-2) | +2.15 (-1) | | | -1.00 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-03 07:40 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +39/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +27.24 (+0) | +0.52 (-1) | +42.97 (+1) | +0.24 (+2) | +1.17 (+1) | +3.55 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-04 12:35 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | trending | +29/40 | +0.50 (+0) | +11.30 (+0) | +0.59 (-1) | +26.88 (+1) | +0.30 (+2) | +0.60 (+1) | +1.67 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-10 04:50 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | +7/38 | -0.50 (+0) | +4.07 (+0) | +0.59 (-1) | +22.19 (+0) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.06 (+1) | +0.62 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-10 14:35 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | transitioning | +38/40 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.48 (+0) | +0.47 (-1) | +24.35 (+0) | +0.35 (+2) | +0.44 (+1) | +2.33 (+1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-12 19:50 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +17/33 | +0.00 (+0) | +4.15 (+0) | +0.42 (-1) | +21.09 (+0) | +0.30 (+2) | +0.37 (+1) | +0.82 (+0) | +1.00 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-13 04:20 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | trending | +4/25 | +0.50 (+0) | +15.70 (+0) | +0.65 (-1) | +28.32 (+1) | -0.01 (+0) | +0.29 (+1) | +1.65 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-13 19:25 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +28/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.04 (+0) | +0.47 (-1) | +35.73 (+1) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.30 (+0) | +1.88 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.12 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-16 15:10 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +30/56 | +1.00 (-2) | +19.21 (+0) | +0.56 (+1) | +38.66 (-1) | +0.26 (-2) | +0.35 (+0) | +2.08 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-20 14:55 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +27/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.61 (-1) | +0.47 (-1) | +21.69 (+0) | +0.23 (+2) | +0.37 (+1) | +2.21 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-24 05:55 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | trending | +23/38 | +0.00 (+0) | +9.09 (+0) | +0.75 (-1) | +30.00 (+1) | +0.25 (+2) | +0.19 (+1) | +1.27 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-25 17:10 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +28/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.72 (+0) | +0.40 (-1) | +18.15 (+0) | +0.18 (+2) | +0.34 (+0) | +1.94 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-26 20:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | transitioning | +31/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +13.98 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +18.72 (+0) | +0.16 (+2) | +0.21 (+1) | +1.79 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-02 07:35 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +29/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +23.33 (+0) | +0.34 (-1) | +44.16 (+1) | +0.30 (+0) | +0.62 (+1) | +2.49 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-02 08:35 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +28/45 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.65 (+1) | +0.25 (+0) | +42.91 (+1) | -0.13 (+0) | +0.21 (+1) | +1.34 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 15:20 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +35/50 | +1.00 (-2) | +24.35 (+0) | +0.39 (+1) | +47.11 (-1) | +0.25 (+0) | +2.36 (-2) | +2.28 (-1) | | | -1.00 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-06 15:25 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +33/64 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.51 (-1) | +0.52 (-1) | +23.88 (+0) | +0.41 (+2) | +1.15 (+1) | +2.89 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-10 06:00 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +37/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.30 (+0) | +0.54 (-1) | +29.88 (+1) | +0.22 (+2) | +0.20 (+1) | +1.87 (+1) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-12 20:35 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +32/54 | +1.00 (-2) | +23.40 (+0) | +0.62 (+1) | +59.86 (-1) | +0.14 (-2) | +0.40 (+0) | +2.23 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | +0.00 (+0) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-13 08:05 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +30/54 | +1.00 (-2) | +22.31 (+0) | +0.75 (+1) | +43.85 (-1) | +0.09 (-1) | +0.43 (-1) | +2.83 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-17 05:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/56 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.67 (+0) | +0.45 (-1) | +33.11 (+1) | +0.05 (+2) | +0.22 (+1) | +1.73 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-25 07:20 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | trending | +22/30 | +0.00 (+0) | +7.12 (+0) | +0.37 (-1) | +34.57 (-1) | +0.29 (+2) | +0.25 (+1) | +1.23 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-27 06:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +37/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.33 (+0) | +0.45 (-1) | +41.33 (+1) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.61 (+1) | +2.31 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-27 19:30 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +13/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +10.69 (-1) | +0.30 (-1) | +23.51 (+0) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.10 (+0) | +1.21 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-31 05:05 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +12/30 | +1.00 (+2) | +5.79 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +18.60 (+0) | +0.16 (+2) | +0.26 (+1) | +0.78 (+0) | | +2.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-31 05:40 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +26/78 | +1.00 (+2) | +10.36 (-1) | +0.62 (-1) | +17.59 (+0) | +0.21 (+2) | +0.35 (+1) | +1.58 (+2) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-02 20:05 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +9.57 (+1) | +0.28 (+0) | +25.77 (+1) | +0.05 (+2) | +0.02 (+1) | +1.15 (+0) | | | -1.84 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-13 17:40 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +35/63 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.45 (+0) | +0.34 (-1) | +31.06 (+1) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.18 (+1) | +1.61 (+1) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-20 22:20 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +27.62 (+0) | +0.57 (-1) | +26.15 (+1) | +0.47 (+2) | +0.33 (+1) | +3.27 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-21 19:25 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +18/35 | -0.50 (+0) | +5.37 (+0) | +0.39 (-1) | +19.15 (+0) | +0.31 (+2) | +0.26 (+1) | +0.91 (+0) | +1.00 (+1) | +2.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-03 22:45 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +14/37 | +0.50 (+0) | +11.54 (-1) | +0.47 (-1) | +16.73 (+0) | +0.31 (+2) | +0.25 (+0) | +1.67 (+1) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-06 07:00 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +26/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.40 (+0) | +0.38 (-1) | +42.22 (+1) | +0.07 (+2) | +0.13 (+0) | +1.78 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-06 14:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.48 (+1) | +0.31 (-1) | +25.32 (+1) | +0.15 (+2) | +0.20 (+1) | +1.40 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-12 12:55 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | +10/29 | +0.50 (+0) | +9.80 (+0) | +0.41 (-1) | +14.24 (+0) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.11 (+1) | +1.23 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-18 08:55 | GENERIC | A | BUY | transitioning | +31/65 | +0.50 (+0) | +11.76 (+0) | +0.47 (-1) | +17.94 (+0) | +0.09 (+2) | +0.21 (+1) | +1.36 (+2) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-19 03:40 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | trending | +22/31 | +0.00 (+0) | -1.77 (+0) | +0.10 (+0) | +26.13 (-1) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.05 (+1) | +0.15 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-19 08:00 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | -6/38 | +0.50 (+0) | +12.94 (-1) | +0.58 (-1) | +15.75 (+0) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.10 (+1) | +1.51 (+0) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-26 12:40 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +36/53 | +1.00 (-2) | +17.48 (+0) | +0.35 (+1) | +34.84 (-1) | +0.14 (-2) | +0.23 (-1) | +1.95 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-01 05:20 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | +16/38 | -0.50 (+0) | +7.13 (+0) | +0.64 (-1) | +23.13 (+0) | +0.31 (+2) | +0.13 (+1) | +1.25 (+0) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-02 07:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +29/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +22.04 (+0) | +0.38 (-1) | +55.11 (+1) | +0.05 (+2) | +0.33 (+1) | +2.17 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-02 22:10 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | -6/34 | +0.00 (+0) | +10.43 (-1) | +0.52 (-1) | +12.77 (+0) | +0.11 (+2) | +0.04 (+1) | +1.34 (+0) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-11 17:45 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +40/63 | +1.00 (+2) | +34.65 (+0) | +0.67 (-1) | +26.06 (+1) | +0.75 (+2) | +2.13 (+2) | +5.33 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-18 17:55 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +9/30 | +0.00 (+0) | +5.05 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +17.20 (+0) | +0.32 (+2) | +0.20 (+0) | +0.94 (+0) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-25 08:40 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | transitioning | +20/59 | +0.50 (+0) | +15.26 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +18.75 (+0) | +0.33 (+2) | +0.60 (+0) | +1.85 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-26 15:50 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +28/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.75 (+0) | +0.51 (-1) | +31.65 (+1) | +0.02 (+1) | +0.35 (+1) | +1.79 (+1) | | +0.00 (+0) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-30 08:05 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +22/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.40 (+0) | +0.41 (-1) | +48.76 (+1) | -0.17 (+0) | +0.25 (+1) | +2.06 (+1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-01 14:35 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +24/43 | +1.00 (+2) | +28.07 (+0) | +0.33 (-1) | +61.44 (+1) | +0.21 (+0) | +0.31 (+0) | +3.08 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-06 07:45 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +16/40 | +0.00 (+0) | +13.57 (-1) | +0.69 (-1) | +23.57 (+0) | +0.30 (+2) | +0.29 (+1) | +1.89 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-13 18:55 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | trending | +25/34 | +0.00 (+0) | +7.33 (+0) | +0.46 (-1) | +30.23 (+1) | +0.41 (+2) | +0.33 (+1) | +1.22 (+0) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-22 03:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +29/54 | +1.00 (+2) | +25.11 (+0) | +0.52 (-1) | +61.73 (+1) | +0.04 (+2) | +0.30 (+0) | +2.48 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +0.00 (+0) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-24 15:40 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +28/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.48 (+0) | +0.46 (-1) | +36.38 (+1) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.37 (+1) | +1.78 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-29 06:35 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +33/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.79 (+0) | +0.51 (-1) | +43.50 (+1) | +0.25 (+2) | +0.11 (+0) | +2.41 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-30 05:50 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +31/55 | +1.00 (-2) | +23.06 (+0) | +0.53 (+1) | +49.98 (-1) | +0.14 (-2) | +0.34 (+0) | +2.33 (-1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-30 14:05 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +40/56 | +1.00 (+2) | +19.24 (+0) | +0.50 (-1) | +39.62 (+1) | +0.39 (+2) | +0.76 (+0) | +2.18 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-30 20:05 | GENERIC | A | BUY | transitioning | +31/64 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.51 (+0) | +0.46 (-1) | +22.45 (+0) | +0.21 (+2) | +0.31 (+1) | +2.10 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-04 08:05 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +17/39 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.09 (-1) | +0.60 (-1) | +11.51 (+0) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.22 (+1) | +1.70 (+1) | | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-04 17:05 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +42/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +21.70 (+0) | +0.73 (-1) | +25.53 (+1) | +0.26 (+2) | +0.42 (+1) | +3.09 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-05 06:40 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending_up | +35/50 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.58 (+0) | +0.34 (-1) | +52.31 (+1) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.26 (+0) | +2.69 (+1) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-07 12:40 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +29/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +29.17 (+0) | +0.75 (-1) | +28.67 (+1) | +0.34 (+2) | +0.95 (+1) | +4.06 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -0.28 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-07 15:15 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +10/26 | +1.00 (+2) | +8.65 (+0) | +0.27 (+0) | +11.18 (+0) | +0.00 (+1) | +0.09 (+1) | +1.01 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-12 03:10 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +33/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.59 (+0) | +0.42 (-1) | +41.86 (+1) | +0.14 (+2) | +0.27 (+1) | +2.51 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-12 14:20 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +8/32 | +1.00 (+2) | +11.94 (-1) | +0.38 (-1) | +11.54 (+0) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.40 (+1) | +1.33 (+0) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-19 20:55 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +35/56 | +1.00 (+2) | +23.02 (+0) | +0.47 (-1) | +37.89 (+1) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.32 (+1) | +2.48 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-20 12:35 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +33/51 | +1.00 (-2) | +22.78 (+0) | +0.43 (+1) | +34.84 (-1) | +0.25 (-2) | +0.48 (+0) | +2.76 (-1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-26 15:20 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +40/55 | +1.00 (-2) | +20.64 (+0) | +0.49 (+1) | +26.53 (-1) | +0.37 (-2) | +0.56 (+0) | +2.13 (-1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-31 08:05 | XAU_CP (bull_flag) | B | BUY | trending | +20/37 | +0.50 (+0) | +13.73 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +30.30 (+1) | +0.03 (+1) | +0.28 (+1) | +1.38 (+2) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-31 14:25 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +30/55 | +1.00 (-2) | +18.49 (+0) | +0.41 (+1) | +36.73 (-1) | +0.13 (-2) | +0.44 (-1) | +1.96 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-09-02 08:10 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | -14/35 | +0.50 (+0) | +12.23 (-1) | +0.39 (-1) | +19.76 (+0) | -0.05 (+0) | +0.04 (+1) | +1.13 (+0) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-09-03 08:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +25/54 | +1.00 (+2) | +10.52 (+0) | +0.42 (-1) | +19.46 (+0) | +0.22 (+2) | +0.24 (+1) | +1.22 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-09-04 05:40 | XAU_CP (inv_hs) | B | BUY | ranging | +9/37 | +0.50 (+0) | +7.39 (+0) | +0.51 (-1) | +13.54 (+0) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.07 (+1) | +1.12 (+0) | | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2026-09-04 15:15 | XAU_CP (double_bottom) | B | BUY | ranging | +9/23 | +0.00 (+0) | +9.02 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +14.40 (+0) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.28 (+1) | +1.34 (+0) | | | -0.39 |
|
||||
|
||||
## 15min: 931 trades — 162 wrong-direction losers (17%), 206 other losers, 563 winners
|
||||
|
||||
Wrong direction = a losing trade whose best excursion never reached a quarter of the initial risk.
|
||||
|
||||
### 1. Where the wrong-direction trades came from (15min)
|
||||
|
||||
| Setup type | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate | Share of all wrong-direction | Other losers | Winners | Net R |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| GENERIC | 757 | 120 | 16% | 74% | 169 | 468 | +140.5 |
|
||||
| XAU_ATR | 174 | 42 | 24% | 26% | 37 | 95 | +5.7 |
|
||||
|
||||
By grade and by regime (15min):
|
||||
|
||||
| Grade | Trades | Wrong-direction rate | | Regime | Trades | Wrong-direction rate |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| A | 450 | 18% | ranging | 120 | 15% |
|
||||
| A+ | 19 | 32% | transitioning | 213 | 15% |
|
||||
| B | 402 | 15% | trending_down | 219 | 21% |
|
||||
| C | 60 | 20% | trending_up | 379 | 18% |
|
||||
|
||||
By direction: BUY: 635 trades, 16% wrong-direction; SELL: 296 trades, 20% wrong-direction.
|
||||
|
||||
### 2. The signal itself at entry (15min): wrong-direction losers vs winners
|
||||
|
||||
Values signed in the trade's direction where a sign applies (positive = in the trade's favour). The separation column is the probability that a random winner shows a higher value than a random wrong-direction loser: 0.50 means the measure does not separate them at all.
|
||||
|
||||
| Measure | Wrong-direction median | Winner median | Other-loser median | Separation |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Composite score of the primary timeframe (in trade direction) | +36.20 | +35.85 | +36.41 | 0.48 |
|
||||
| Final score after the multi-timeframe blend (in trade direction) | +33.38 | +32.89 | +33.27 | 0.47 |
|
||||
| Final confidence | +60.01 | +60.41 | +60.10 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| Composite score of confirmation 1 (in trade direction) | +28.13 | +28.12 | +26.84 | 0.50 |
|
||||
| Composite score of confirmation 2 (in trade direction) | +19.83 | +20.82 | +19.74 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Indicators agreeing (count) | +5.00 | +5.00 | +5.00 | 0.48 |
|
||||
| Indicators opposing (count) | +1.00 | +1.00 | +1.00 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| Confidence penalty (points) | +14.41 | +14.00 | +14.00 | 0.50 |
|
||||
| Exhaustion tags | +3.00 | +2.00 | +2.00 | 0.49 |
|
||||
| Primary ATR as % of price | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.16 | 0.46 |
|
||||
| Prior 12-bar move in trade direction (ATR) | +2.69 | +2.92 | +2.95 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| Hourly stretch (ATR) | +1.64 | +1.75 | +1.53 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Planned target 1 (R) | +1.00 | +1.00 | +1.00 | 0.54 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 3a. Each indicator on the primary timeframe (15min)
|
||||
|
||||
Agree = the indicator voted in the trade's direction; oppose = against. Value is signed in the trade's direction (RSI minus 50, Bollinger position minus 0.5, MACD and Keltner in ATR units, EMA alignment, rate of change in percent; ADX is unsigned strength). Contribution = the indicator's weighted score in the trade's favour.
|
||||
|
||||
| Indicator | Present (wrong / win) | Agree % (wrong / win) | Oppose % (wrong / win) | Median value (wrong / win) | Median confidence (wrong / win) | Mean contribution (wrong / win) | Separation of value |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| EMA trend (alignment) | 100% / 100% | 95% / 95% | 0% / 1% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 90 / 90 | +2.49 / +2.62 | 0.55 |
|
||||
| RSI | 100% / 100% | 12% / 9% | 12% / 20% | +18.78 / +20.21 | 30 / 30 | +0.00 / -0.05 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| Bollinger position | 100% / 100% | 0% / 0% | 94% / 94% | +0.52 / +0.51 | 65 / 65 | -0.59 / -0.63 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| ADX (trend strength) | 100% / 100% | 68% / 63% | 2% / 1% | +30.09 / +27.91 | 70 / 70 | +0.18 / +0.18 | 0.48 |
|
||||
| MACD histogram | 100% / 100% | 95% / 92% | 0% / 0% | +0.19 / +0.22 | 70 / 70 | +3.96 / +3.86 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Rate of change | 100% / 100% | 83% / 87% | 0% / 0% | +0.47 / +0.47 | 54 / 54 | +1.07 / +1.12 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| Keltner extension | 100% / 100% | 93% / 93% | 0% / 0% | +2.22 / +2.28 | 65 / 65 | +2.15 / +2.18 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| Divergence | 31% / 30% | 41% / 34% | 55% / 64% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 70 / 70 | +0.12 / -0.06 | 0.53 |
|
||||
| Candlestick | 27% / 32% | 81% / 80% | 2% / 4% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 50 / 50 | +0.33 / +0.33 | 0.52 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 3b. Each indicator on the first confirmation timeframe
|
||||
|
||||
Agree = the indicator voted in the trade's direction; oppose = against. Value is signed in the trade's direction (RSI minus 50, Bollinger position minus 0.5, MACD and Keltner in ATR units, EMA alignment, rate of change in percent; ADX is unsigned strength). Contribution = the indicator's weighted score in the trade's favour.
|
||||
|
||||
| Indicator | Present (wrong / win) | Agree % (wrong / win) | Oppose % (wrong / win) | Median value (wrong / win) | Median confidence (wrong / win) | Mean contribution (wrong / win) | Separation of value |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| EMA trend (alignment) | 100% / 100% | 100% / 100% | 0% / 0% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 90 / 90 | +2.97 / +2.99 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| RSI | 100% / 100% | 15% / 14% | 14% / 13% | +19.07 / +19.39 | 30 / 30 | -0.01 / -0.01 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Bollinger position | 100% / 100% | 0% / 0% | 85% / 87% | +0.44 / +0.44 | 45 / 45 | -0.48 / -0.48 | 0.49 |
|
||||
| ADX (trend strength) | 100% / 100% | 75% / 76% | 1% / 0% | +31.67 / +31.41 | 70 / 70 | +0.21 / +0.21 | 0.50 |
|
||||
| MACD histogram | 100% / 100% | 59% / 60% | 0% / 1% | +0.22 / +0.19 | 61 / 60 | +2.47 / +2.41 | 0.47 |
|
||||
| Rate of change | 100% / 100% | 56% / 61% | 1% / 2% | +0.28 / +0.26 | 51 / 51 | +0.68 / +0.69 | 0.47 |
|
||||
| Keltner extension | 100% / 100% | 79% / 81% | 0% / 0% | +2.06 / +2.08 | 65 / 65 | +1.36 / +1.38 | 0.51 |
|
||||
| Divergence | 27% / 31% | 19% / 16% | 79% / 83% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 70 / 70 | -0.76 / -0.82 | 0.57 |
|
||||
| Candlestick | 30% / 28% | 39% / 52% | 29% / 10% | +0.00 / +0.00 | 50 / 50 | +0.04 / +0.18 | 0.56 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 3c. Each indicator on the second confirmation timeframe
|
||||
|
||||
Agree = the indicator voted in the trade's direction; oppose = against. Value is signed in the trade's direction (RSI minus 50, Bollinger position minus 0.5, MACD and Keltner in ATR units, EMA alignment, rate of change in percent; ADX is unsigned strength). Contribution = the indicator's weighted score in the trade's favour.
|
||||
|
||||
| Indicator | Present (wrong / win) | Agree % (wrong / win) | Oppose % (wrong / win) | Median value (wrong / win) | Median confidence (wrong / win) | Mean contribution (wrong / win) | Separation of value |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| EMA trend (alignment) | 100% / 100% | 66% / 76% | 12% / 10% | +0.50 / +1.00 | 65 / 90 | +1.28 / +1.49 | 0.57 |
|
||||
| RSI | 100% / 100% | 12% / 10% | 23% / 26% | +12.73 / +13.85 | 30 / 30 | -0.12 / -0.10 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| Bollinger position | 100% / 100% | 0% / 1% | 71% / 72% | +0.42 / +0.43 | 45 / 45 | -0.50 / -0.53 | 0.52 |
|
||||
| ADX (trend strength) | 100% / 100% | 48% / 49% | 9% / 7% | +26.30 / +26.57 | 55 / 55 | +0.11 / +0.12 | 0.47 |
|
||||
| MACD histogram | 100% / 100% | 75% / 69% | 2% / 2% | +0.15 / +0.16 | 63 / 63 | +2.69 / +2.49 | 0.50 |
|
||||
| Rate of change | 100% / 100% | 76% / 73% | 2% / 5% | +0.56 / +0.57 | 55 / 55 | +0.87 / +0.84 | 0.49 |
|
||||
| Keltner extension | 100% / 100% | 48% / 53% | 0% / 0% | +1.45 / +1.60 | 60 / 65 | +0.87 / +0.99 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| Divergence | 27% / 30% | 48% / 40% | 52% / 57% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 70 / 70 | +0.06 / -0.18 | 0.57 |
|
||||
| Candlestick | 31% / 31% | 78% / 75% | 8% / 6% | +1.00 / +1.00 | 50 / 50 | +0.33 / +0.32 | 0.52 |
|
||||
|
||||
### 4. When the direction was wrong (15min)
|
||||
|
||||
Base rate: 17% of all trades were wrong-direction losers. Cells under 20 trades are noise.
|
||||
|
||||
| Entry hour (Coordinated Universal Time) | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate | | Weekday | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 03:00 | 74 | 8 | 11% | Mon | 169 | 29 | 17% |
|
||||
| 04:00 | 28 | 5 | 18% | Tue | 212 | 33 | 16% |
|
||||
| 05:00 | 61 | 12 | 20% | Wed | 189 | 42 | 22% |
|
||||
| 06:00 | 79 | 16 | 20% | Thu | 179 | 27 | 15% |
|
||||
| 07:00 | 68 | 13 | 19% | Fri | 169 | 29 | 17% |
|
||||
| 08:00 | 77 | 13 | 17% | Sun | 13 | 2 | 15% |
|
||||
| 09:00 | 75 | 12 | 16% | | | | |
|
||||
| 12:00 | 68 | 11 | 16% | | | | |
|
||||
| 14:00 | 154 | 25 | 16% | | | | |
|
||||
| 15:00 | 65 | 9 | 14% | | | | |
|
||||
| 17:00 | 34 | 5 | 15% | | | | |
|
||||
| 18:00 | 45 | 12 | 27% | | | | |
|
||||
| 19:00 | 38 | 6 | 16% | | | | |
|
||||
| 20:00 | 34 | 8 | 24% | | | | |
|
||||
| 22:00 | 31 | 7 | 23% | | | | |
|
||||
|
||||
Weekday-hour cells with at least 10 trades and the highest wrong-direction rate (15min):
|
||||
|
||||
| Day | Hour | Trades | Wrong-direction | Rate |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Wed | 18:00 | 13 | 5 | 38% |
|
||||
| Tue | 05:00 | 19 | 7 | 37% |
|
||||
| Tue | 06:00 | 13 | 4 | 31% |
|
||||
| Wed | 09:00 | 20 | 6 | 30% |
|
||||
| Wed | 19:00 | 10 | 3 | 30% |
|
||||
| Fri | 15:00 | 18 | 5 | 28% |
|
||||
|
||||
Months with the highest wrong-direction rate: 2026-07 29% (11 of 38); 2026-02 28% (8 of 29); 2025-07 24% (11 of 46); 2025-04 24% (10 of 42).
|
||||
|
||||
### Appendix 15min: every wrong-direction loser with its primary-timeframe indicator values
|
||||
|
||||
Columns: entry time, setup (pattern), grade, direction, regime, final score in trade direction / confidence, then per indicator `signed value (vote)` where the vote is −2 strong sell … +2 strong buy; blank = the indicator did not vote. Values as defined in section 3. R = realised result.
|
||||
|
||||
| Entry | Setup | Grade | Dir | Regime | Score/Conf | EMA | RSI | Bollinger | ADX | MACD | ROC | Keltner | Div | Candle | R |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 2024-09-11 07:00 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +44/65 | +1.00 (+2) | +26.75 (+0) | +0.59 (-1) | +32.23 (+1) | +0.27 (+2) | +0.29 (+1) | +2.40 (+1) | | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2024-09-19 09:30 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +37/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +29.79 (+0) | +0.46 (-1) | +39.62 (+1) | +0.26 (+2) | +0.58 (+1) | +3.55 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2024-09-24 05:00 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +40/64 | +1.00 (+2) | +25.13 (+0) | +0.51 (-1) | +26.94 (+1) | +0.43 (+2) | +0.40 (+1) | +3.08 (+1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2024-09-25 14:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +30/66 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.25 (+0) | +0.50 (-1) | +17.01 (+0) | +0.23 (+2) | +0.32 (+1) | +1.58 (+1) | | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2024-09-30 19:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +32/57 | +1.00 (-2) | +11.98 (-1) | +0.38 (+1) | +27.91 (-1) | +0.09 (-2) | +0.35 (-1) | +1.44 (+0) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2024-10-01 17:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +39/56 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.01 (+0) | +0.40 (-1) | +31.70 (+1) | +0.06 (+2) | +0.31 (+1) | +1.69 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2024-10-02 14:15 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +35/48 | +0.50 (+1) | +12.27 (-1) | +0.54 (-1) | +21.45 (+0) | +0.29 (+2) | +0.35 (+1) | +1.60 (+2) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2024-10-14 06:30 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +41/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.92 (+0) | +0.50 (-1) | +30.45 (+1) | +0.27 (+2) | +0.38 (+1) | +3.19 (+1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2024-10-23 18:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +30/53 | +1.00 (-2) | +18.28 (+0) | +0.23 (+0) | +48.61 (-1) | -0.08 (+0) | +0.18 (-1) | +1.91 (-1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2024-10-29 05:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +35/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.86 (+0) | +0.34 (-1) | +36.62 (+1) | +0.04 (+1) | +0.11 (+1) | +2.05 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2024-11-05 15:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +27/49 | +0.50 (+1) | +12.55 (+0) | +0.44 (-1) | +15.51 (+0) | +0.16 (+2) | +0.24 (+1) | +1.33 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2024-12-03 14:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +28/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.30 (+0) | +0.58 (-1) | +18.00 (+0) | +0.29 (+2) | +0.30 (+0) | +2.12 (+1) | | +0.00 (+0) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2024-12-18 20:45 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +36/64 | +1.00 (-2) | +34.41 (+0) | +0.60 (+1) | +46.37 (-1) | +0.70 (-2) | +1.81 (-1) | +5.26 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | | -0.51 |
|
||||
| 2024-12-23 06:45 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +26/69 | +1.00 (+2) | +21.04 (-1) | +0.73 (-1) | +13.63 (+0) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.28 (+1) | +2.33 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2025-01-06 07:45 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +40/57 | +1.00 (-2) | +28.81 (+0) | +0.53 (+1) | +38.88 (-1) | +0.26 (-2) | +0.35 (-1) | +3.23 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-01-16 17:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +33/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +19.76 (+0) | +0.32 (-1) | +28.49 (+1) | +0.06 (+2) | +0.18 (+1) | +1.71 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-01-22 09:30 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +25/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.25 (-1) | +0.68 (-1) | +19.66 (+0) | +0.21 (+2) | +0.54 (+1) | +2.89 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-01-24 15:30 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +41/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.43 (+1) | +0.49 (-1) | +29.77 (+1) | +0.05 (+1) | +0.23 (+1) | +1.55 (+2) | | | -1.36 |
|
||||
| 2025-01-29 19:30 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +38/60 | +1.00 (-2) | +20.97 (+0) | +0.57 (+1) | +35.32 (-1) | +0.13 (-2) | +0.21 (-1) | +2.05 (-1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-02-14 18:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +29/52 | +1.00 (-2) | +28.07 (+0) | +0.37 (+1) | +58.15 (-1) | +0.27 (+0) | +0.72 (-1) | +3.07 (-1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-02-19 18:15 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +33/57 | +0.50 (-1) | +17.52 (+0) | +0.46 (+1) | +40.68 (-1) | +0.23 (-2) | +0.51 (-1) | +2.04 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-02-20 08:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.59 (+0) | +0.46 (-1) | +36.49 (+1) | +0.19 (+2) | +0.21 (+0) | +2.18 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-02-20 14:15 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +34/60 | +0.50 (-1) | +29.24 (+0) | +0.75 (+1) | +33.74 (-1) | +0.53 (-2) | +0.82 (-1) | +3.90 (-1) | -1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-02-21 08:45 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +39/60 | +1.00 (-2) | +15.23 (+0) | +0.52 (+1) | +28.31 (-1) | +0.14 (-2) | +0.24 (+0) | +1.62 (-2) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-02-26 14:15 | GENERIC | A+ | SELL | transitioning | +46/69 | +1.00 (-2) | +24.52 (+1) | +0.95 (+1) | +15.41 (+0) | +0.31 (-2) | +0.64 (-1) | +3.45 (-2) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-10 18:00 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +41/62 | +1.00 (-2) | +20.95 (+0) | +0.59 (+1) | +30.43 (-1) | +0.36 (-2) | +0.76 (-1) | +2.44 (-1) | | +0.00 (+0) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-13 03:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +33/62 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.58 (+0) | +0.54 (-1) | +38.42 (+1) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.22 (+1) | +1.96 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +0.00 (+0) | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-14 04:30 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/64 | +1.00 (+2) | +10.74 (+1) | +0.38 (-1) | +28.65 (+1) | +0.03 (+2) | +0.11 (+0) | +1.10 (+2) | +1.00 (+0) | | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-21 14:15 | GENERIC | A | SELL | transitioning | +32/66 | +1.00 (-2) | +31.05 (+1) | +0.69 (+1) | +24.00 (+0) | +0.60 (-2) | +1.02 (-1) | +4.30 (-1) | -1.00 (-1) | | -0.48 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-24 18:15 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +43/59 | +1.00 (-2) | +22.03 (+0) | +0.41 (+1) | +36.90 (-1) | +0.15 (-2) | +0.37 (-1) | +2.30 (-1) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-26 07:45 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +38/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.83 (+0) | +0.43 (-1) | +25.98 (+1) | +0.46 (+2) | +0.46 (+1) | +2.52 (+1) | | +2.00 (+1) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-28 07:00 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +42/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +27.74 (+0) | +0.58 (-1) | +58.16 (+1) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.35 (+1) | +2.86 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-03-31 06:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +45/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +31.08 (+0) | +0.55 (-1) | +38.63 (+1) | +0.15 (+2) | +0.56 (+1) | +3.07 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-02 08:45 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.39 (+0) | +0.60 (-1) | +28.22 (+1) | +0.35 (+2) | +0.56 (+1) | +2.31 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-04 08:30 | GENERIC | A | SELL | transitioning | +35/70 | +1.00 (-2) | +20.71 (+1) | +0.63 (+1) | +23.21 (+0) | +0.26 (-2) | +0.78 (-1) | +2.31 (-1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-08 06:45 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +33/61 | +0.50 (+1) | +17.12 (+0) | +0.62 (-1) | +19.34 (+0) | +0.17 (+2) | +0.50 (+0) | +2.00 (+2) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-11 15:30 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +26/54 | +1.00 (+2) | +10.11 (+1) | +0.38 (-1) | +25.55 (+1) | +0.04 (+2) | +0.17 (+0) | +1.13 (+0) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-15 05:00 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +40/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +21.62 (+0) | +0.41 (-1) | +38.85 (+1) | +0.18 (+2) | +0.33 (+1) | +2.21 (+1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-16 22:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +29/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +26.69 (+0) | +0.69 (-1) | +47.37 (+1) | +0.06 (+1) | +0.48 (+1) | +3.24 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-22 06:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +33/53 | +1.00 (+2) | +22.70 (+0) | +0.31 (-1) | +33.83 (+1) | +0.00 (+1) | +0.16 (+0) | +2.49 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-23 14:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +41/64 | +1.00 (-2) | +23.94 (+0) | +0.63 (+1) | +29.93 (-1) | +0.41 (-2) | +1.94 (-1) | +3.07 (-1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-27 22:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +34/60 | +0.50 (+1) | +26.61 (+0) | +0.59 (-1) | +32.73 (+1) | +0.54 (+2) | +1.07 (+1) | +3.67 (+1) | | +0.00 (+0) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-04-28 19:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +25.89 (+0) | +0.36 (-1) | +33.20 (+1) | +0.07 (+2) | +0.44 (+1) | +2.60 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-06 20:00 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +34/56 | +1.00 (+2) | +22.74 (+0) | +0.39 (-1) | +33.89 (+1) | +0.01 (+1) | +0.24 (+1) | +2.47 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-13 07:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/53 | +0.50 (+1) | +15.52 (+0) | +0.38 (-1) | +29.53 (+1) | +0.23 (+2) | +0.73 (+1) | +2.14 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-15 06:00 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +42/57 | +1.00 (-2) | +30.34 (+0) | +0.40 (+1) | +46.37 (-1) | +0.28 (-2) | +0.79 (-1) | +3.35 (-1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-15 22:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +28.60 (+0) | +0.58 (-1) | +52.87 (+1) | +0.04 (+1) | +0.61 (+1) | +3.44 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-21 06:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.38 (+0) | +0.55 (-1) | +33.47 (+1) | +0.07 (+1) | +0.26 (+0) | +2.05 (+1) | +1.00 (+0) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-21 14:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | ranging | +30/59 | -0.00 (+0) | +8.56 (+0) | +0.41 (+1) | +19.48 (+0) | +0.13 (-2) | +0.27 (-1) | +0.95 (-2) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-23 15:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +34/54 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.55 (+0) | +0.36 (-1) | +32.24 (+1) | +0.02 (+1) | +0.35 (+1) | +1.67 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-05-28 08:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | transitioning | +33/59 | +0.50 (+1) | +18.88 (+0) | +0.55 (-1) | +18.80 (+0) | +0.40 (+2) | +0.43 (+1) | +2.69 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-03 14:15 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +42/62 | +0.50 (-1) | +22.91 (+0) | +0.83 (+1) | +30.59 (-1) | +0.21 (-2) | +0.57 (-1) | +2.56 (-2) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-04 09:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | ranging | +30/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +7.95 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +19.78 (+0) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.21 (+0) | +0.99 (+2) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-05 12:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/53 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.88 (+1) | +0.23 (+0) | +37.61 (+1) | +0.11 (+0) | +0.31 (+1) | +1.55 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-11 12:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +30/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +22.31 (+0) | +0.60 (-1) | +28.25 (+1) | +0.21 (+2) | +0.60 (+1) | +2.69 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-19 06:30 | XAU_ATR | A+ | SELL | trending_down | +44/66 | +1.00 (-2) | +29.47 (+0) | +0.77 (+1) | +25.08 (-1) | +0.43 (-2) | +0.69 (-1) | +3.67 (-1) | | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-19 17:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | ranging | +28/71 | +0.00 (+0) | +8.99 (+0) | +0.50 (-1) | +13.98 (+0) | +0.19 (+2) | +0.27 (+1) | +1.00 (+2) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-06-20 03:15 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +44/65 | +1.00 (-2) | +23.87 (+0) | +0.64 (+1) | +25.94 (-1) | +0.32 (-2) | +0.58 (-1) | +2.77 (-1) | | | -1.31 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-02 14:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | ranging | +28/65 | -0.00 (+0) | +11.39 (+1) | +0.60 (+1) | +18.62 (+0) | +0.20 (-2) | +0.23 (-1) | +1.39 (-2) | -1.00 (-1) | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-02 22:30 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +42/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +27.17 (+0) | +0.56 (-1) | +33.53 (+1) | +0.17 (+2) | +0.29 (+1) | +3.19 (+1) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-03 07:00 | GENERIC | A | BUY | transitioning | +33/68 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.01 (+0) | +0.53 (-1) | +22.58 (+0) | +0.36 (+2) | +0.37 (+1) | +2.31 (+1) | | +2.00 (+1) | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-09 09:00 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +42/61 | +1.00 (-2) | +14.97 (-1) | +0.46 (+1) | +42.70 (-1) | +0.05 (-2) | +0.07 (-1) | +1.32 (-2) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-13 22:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +25/63 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.21 (+0) | +0.57 (-1) | +23.10 (+0) | +0.28 (+2) | +0.37 (+0) | +2.40 (+1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-14 14:45 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +34/56 | +0.50 (-1) | +22.15 (+0) | +0.51 (+1) | +30.45 (-1) | +0.34 (-2) | +0.60 (-1) | +3.02 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-16 15:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +28/54 | +0.50 (+1) | +23.53 (+0) | +0.59 (-1) | +26.48 (+1) | +0.40 (+2) | +0.78 (+0) | +2.46 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-17 12:45 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +31/62 | +1.00 (-2) | +21.53 (+0) | +0.92 (+1) | +32.72 (-1) | +0.13 (-1) | +0.43 (-1) | +3.02 (-2) | -1.00 (+1) | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-28 04:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | ranging | +31/66 | +0.00 (+0) | +13.35 (-1) | +0.72 (-1) | +15.96 (+0) | +0.25 (+2) | +0.24 (+1) | +1.83 (+2) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-30 09:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +44/46 | +0.50 (+1) | +9.33 (+0) | +0.50 (-1) | +20.43 (+0) | +0.16 (+2) | +0.26 (+1) | +1.12 (+2) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.07 |
|
||||
| 2025-07-31 09:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/58 | +0.50 (+1) | +24.94 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +53.19 (+1) | +0.18 (+2) | +0.36 (+1) | +2.05 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-08-01 08:00 | GENERIC | B | SELL | ranging | +35/51 | +1.00 (-2) | +12.21 (+1) | +0.59 (+1) | +16.74 (+0) | +0.19 (-2) | +0.19 (-1) | +1.30 (-2) | -1.00 (-1) | | -1.06 |
|
||||
| 2025-08-12 12:30 | GENERIC | B | SELL | transitioning | +26/56 | +1.00 (-2) | +12.67 (+0) | +0.52 (+1) | +22.61 (+0) | +0.11 (-2) | +0.18 (-1) | +1.49 (+0) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-08-25 15:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +28/56 | +1.00 (+2) | +13.30 (+0) | +0.47 (-1) | +15.91 (+0) | +0.28 (+2) | +0.16 (+0) | +1.81 (+1) | | +0.00 (+0) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-02 04:45 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +26/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +14.00 (+1) | +0.23 (+0) | +45.04 (+1) | -0.05 (+0) | +0.11 (+1) | +1.35 (+0) | | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-03 18:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +42/57 | +1.00 (+2) | +27.13 (+0) | +0.45 (-1) | +40.58 (+1) | +0.11 (+2) | +0.40 (+1) | +2.74 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-04 03:15 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +37/61 | +0.50 (-1) | +31.86 (+0) | +0.75 (+1) | +41.07 (-1) | +0.51 (-2) | +1.20 (-1) | +4.49 (-1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-09 05:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +30/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.85 (+0) | +0.38 (-1) | +31.37 (+1) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.24 (+1) | +1.90 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-12 05:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +29/52 | +1.00 (+2) | +27.41 (+0) | +0.30 (-1) | +42.45 (+1) | +0.15 (+0) | +0.23 (+1) | +2.42 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-12 14:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | ranging | +31/62 | +1.00 (+2) | +9.10 (+0) | +0.35 (-1) | +18.60 (+0) | +0.17 (+2) | +0.16 (+1) | +0.97 (+2) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-17 19:00 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +40/62 | +0.50 (-1) | +27.64 (+0) | +0.90 (+1) | +35.59 (-1) | +0.36 (-2) | +1.02 (-1) | +2.84 (-2) | -1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-23 09:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +35/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +30.56 (+0) | +0.74 (-1) | +26.20 (+1) | +0.50 (+2) | +0.84 (+1) | +4.62 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-24 19:00 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +32/55 | +0.50 (-1) | +33.01 (+0) | +0.41 (+1) | +60.16 (-1) | +0.20 (-2) | +0.48 (-1) | +2.97 (-1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-25 08:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | transitioning | +33/59 | +0.50 (+1) | +19.02 (+0) | +0.63 (-1) | +21.43 (+0) | +0.35 (+2) | +0.53 (+1) | +2.49 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-09-30 05:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +28/52 | +1.00 (+2) | +31.25 (+0) | +0.40 (-1) | +46.47 (+1) | +0.26 (+0) | +0.55 (+1) | +2.97 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-01 17:30 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +26/46 | +0.50 (+1) | -1.86 (+2) | +0.04 (+0) | +30.25 (-1) | +0.04 (+2) | -0.06 (+0) | -0.09 (+0) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-14 05:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +28/51 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.63 (+0) | +0.36 (-1) | +46.45 (+1) | +0.12 (+0) | +0.62 (+1) | +2.48 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-15 08:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/65 | +1.00 (+2) | +23.55 (+0) | +0.56 (-1) | +33.49 (+1) | +0.17 (+2) | +0.58 (+1) | +2.59 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-17 04:15 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +33/65 | +1.00 (+2) | +13.10 (+1) | +0.27 (+0) | +26.90 (+1) | +0.08 (+2) | +1.87 (+1) | +1.54 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-17 14:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +44/62 | +0.50 (-1) | +26.73 (+0) | +0.82 (+1) | +57.50 (-1) | +0.32 (-2) | +2.09 (-2) | +3.86 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-10-20 20:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +31.72 (+0) | +0.63 (-1) | +39.31 (+1) | +0.02 (+1) | +0.82 (+1) | +3.12 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-03 08:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | ranging | +31/68 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.98 (-1) | +0.55 (-1) | +19.00 (+0) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.33 (+0) | +1.64 (+2) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-11 03:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +29.76 (+0) | +0.41 (-1) | +42.80 (+1) | +0.07 (+2) | +0.34 (+1) | +2.39 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-14 03:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +28/61 | +0.50 (+1) | +17.19 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +22.45 (+0) | +0.41 (+2) | +0.64 (+1) | +2.15 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-11-20 08:30 | XAU_ATR | A+ | SELL | trending_down | +49/73 | +1.00 (-2) | +17.81 (+0) | +0.61 (+1) | +25.46 (-1) | +0.18 (-2) | +0.51 (-1) | +1.83 (-2) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-02 09:45 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +30/59 | +0.50 (-1) | +23.37 (+0) | +0.66 (+1) | +35.83 (-1) | +0.25 (-2) | +0.55 (-1) | +2.63 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-08 06:00 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +27/64 | +0.00 (+0) | +13.04 (-1) | +0.58 (-1) | +17.25 (+0) | +0.19 (+2) | +0.17 (+1) | +1.53 (+2) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-30 12:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/56 | +0.50 (+1) | +18.68 (+0) | +0.45 (-1) | +28.35 (+1) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.54 (+1) | +2.12 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-31 06:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +40/59 | +1.00 (-2) | +17.08 (+0) | +0.54 (+1) | +29.28 (-1) | +0.38 (-2) | +1.21 (+0) | +2.39 (-1) | -1.00 (-1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2025-12-31 09:00 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +37/63 | +1.00 (-2) | +11.79 (-1) | +0.28 (+0) | +27.94 (-1) | +0.01 (-1) | +0.00 (-1) | +1.54 (-1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-02 18:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +40/59 | +1.00 (-2) | +24.54 (+0) | +0.36 (+1) | +49.77 (-1) | +0.13 (-2) | +0.73 (-1) | +2.49 (-1) | -1.00 (-1) | | -2.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-21 06:30 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +42/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +35.63 (+0) | +0.46 (-1) | +60.02 (+1) | +0.05 (+2) | +0.80 (+1) | +2.99 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-21 09:30 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +26/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +13.96 (+1) | +0.32 (-1) | +36.84 (+1) | -0.14 (+0) | +0.58 (+1) | +1.55 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-21 20:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +29/53 | +0.50 (-1) | +13.16 (-1) | +0.41 (+1) | +33.57 (-1) | +0.24 (-2) | +0.47 (+0) | +1.71 (-1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-22 07:30 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +42/63 | +1.00 (+2) | +17.98 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +25.34 (+1) | +0.47 (+2) | +0.83 (+1) | +2.47 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-01-27 07:45 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +28/74 | +1.00 (+2) | +13.95 (-1) | +0.47 (-1) | +14.32 (+0) | +0.11 (+2) | +0.58 (+1) | +1.25 (+2) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-02 06:45 | XAU_ATR | A+ | SELL | trending_down | +50/69 | +1.00 (-2) | +27.60 (+0) | +0.59 (+1) | +41.91 (-1) | +0.25 (-2) | +4.50 (-2) | +2.71 (-1) | | | -1.00 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-12 05:30 | GENERIC | C | BUY | trending_up | +30/46 | +0.50 (+1) | +4.16 (+2) | +0.37 (-1) | +30.27 (+1) | +0.16 (+2) | +0.11 (+0) | +0.57 (+0) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-13 19:15 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +26/60 | +0.50 (+1) | +15.67 (+0) | +0.43 (-1) | +17.03 (+0) | +0.09 (+2) | +0.45 (+1) | +1.65 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-19 07:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +35/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +31.23 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +31.11 (+1) | +0.54 (+2) | +0.74 (+0) | +3.54 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-20 09:30 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +31/64 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.12 (+0) | +0.40 (-1) | +23.97 (+0) | +0.19 (+2) | +0.27 (+1) | +1.77 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-24 14:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +38/61 | +0.50 (-1) | +30.33 (+0) | +0.73 (+1) | +36.23 (-1) | +0.42 (-2) | +1.41 (-1) | +3.53 (-1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-24 20:45 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +26/77 | +0.50 (+1) | +11.52 (-1) | +0.52 (-1) | +19.92 (+0) | +0.15 (+2) | +0.15 (+1) | +1.40 (+2) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-02-26 20:15 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +34/58 | +1.00 (+2) | +13.52 (+1) | +0.43 (-1) | +26.99 (-1) | +0.18 (+2) | +0.43 (+1) | +1.44 (+0) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 06:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | transitioning | +31/71 | -0.00 (+0) | +23.82 (+1) | +0.84 (+1) | +20.07 (+0) | +0.45 (-2) | +1.48 (-1) | +3.29 (-1) | -1.00 (-1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 18:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | transitioning | +25/54 | +1.00 (-2) | +14.30 (+0) | +0.41 (+1) | +18.17 (+0) | +0.11 (-2) | +0.37 (-1) | +1.38 (+0) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-06 15:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/60 | +0.50 (+1) | +15.62 (+0) | +0.68 (-1) | +28.45 (+1) | +0.37 (+2) | +1.55 (+1) | +2.38 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-06 18:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +29/58 | +0.50 (+1) | +15.43 (+0) | +0.34 (-1) | +28.83 (+1) | +0.07 (+2) | +0.41 (+1) | +1.70 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-11 20:00 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +38/70 | +0.50 (+1) | +5.36 (+1) | +0.55 (-1) | +36.85 (-1) | +0.19 (+2) | +0.22 (+1) | +0.80 (+2) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-17 04:45 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +33/57 | +0.50 (+1) | +17.67 (+0) | +0.44 (-1) | +29.28 (+1) | +0.17 (+2) | +0.36 (+1) | +2.05 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-23 07:30 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +34/57 | +1.00 (-2) | +28.60 (+0) | +0.55 (+1) | +55.46 (-1) | +0.42 (-2) | +5.31 (+0) | +3.62 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | +0.00 (+0) | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-23 14:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +36/51 | +0.50 (+1) | +12.86 (+1) | +0.32 (-1) | +33.75 (+1) | +0.20 (+2) | +2.45 (+2) | +1.76 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.00 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-26 08:45 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +37/57 | +1.00 (-2) | +20.38 (+0) | +0.35 (+1) | +33.75 (-1) | +0.14 (-2) | +0.02 (+0) | +2.42 (-1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-27 05:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +28/61 | +0.50 (+1) | +21.60 (-1) | +0.48 (-1) | +24.67 (+0) | +0.17 (+2) | +0.81 (+1) | +2.43 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-03-30 12:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +30/64 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.40 (+0) | +0.54 (-1) | +38.35 (+1) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.73 (+1) | +1.81 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-01 15:45 | XAU_ATR | A+ | BUY | trending_up | +51/66 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.06 (+0) | +0.64 (-1) | +25.46 (+1) | +0.19 (+2) | +1.14 (+1) | +2.23 (+2) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-06 08:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +26/59 | +0.50 (+1) | +15.79 (+0) | +0.48 (-1) | +21.95 (+0) | +0.25 (+2) | +0.69 (+0) | +1.95 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-07 06:30 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +33/66 | +1.00 (-2) | +4.02 (-2) | +0.08 (+0) | +27.89 (-1) | +0.02 (-2) | +0.19 (-1) | +0.45 (+0) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-20 22:30 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +31/64 | +1.00 (+2) | +16.74 (+0) | +0.54 (-1) | +18.60 (+0) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.31 (+1) | +1.90 (+1) | | +0.00 (+0) | -1.05 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-21 20:00 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +33/52 | +1.00 (-2) | +18.16 (+0) | +0.44 (+1) | +40.09 (-1) | +0.08 (-2) | +0.44 (+0) | +2.27 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | | -0.31 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-24 14:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +30/53 | +0.50 (+1) | +14.74 (+1) | +0.42 (-1) | +26.53 (+1) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.40 (+0) | +1.70 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-04-27 03:45 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +31/58 | +0.50 (+1) | +20.30 (+0) | +0.51 (-1) | +32.62 (+1) | +0.51 (+2) | +0.76 (+1) | +2.62 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-04 18:30 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +34/55 | +1.00 (-2) | +17.75 (+0) | +0.27 (+0) | +35.48 (-1) | +0.01 (-2) | +0.22 (+0) | +1.57 (-1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-07 22:45 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +39/62 | +0.50 (-1) | +13.87 (-1) | +0.51 (+1) | +38.20 (-1) | +0.10 (-2) | +0.48 (-1) | +1.54 (-2) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-11 06:00 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +37/65 | +1.00 (-2) | +25.44 (+0) | +0.64 (+1) | +38.34 (-1) | +0.17 (-2) | +0.79 (-1) | +2.47 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-13 06:15 | GENERIC | C | BUY | ranging | +31/47 | +0.00 (+0) | +7.24 (+0) | +0.52 (-1) | +17.80 (+0) | +0.11 (+2) | +0.14 (+1) | +1.04 (+2) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-20 03:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +41/64 | +1.00 (-2) | +15.51 (+0) | +0.49 (+1) | +30.96 (-1) | +0.20 (-2) | +1.05 (-1) | +1.78 (-1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-21 18:00 | GENERIC | B | BUY | transitioning | +27/63 | +0.50 (+1) | +23.63 (-1) | +0.60 (-1) | +22.98 (+0) | +0.49 (+2) | +1.06 (+1) | +2.60 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-05-22 14:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | ranging | +32/70 | +1.00 (-2) | +15.71 (+1) | +0.70 (+1) | +15.74 (+0) | +0.16 (-2) | +0.53 (-1) | +2.12 (-2) | | | -1.29 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-02 07:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/55 | +1.00 (+2) | +26.76 (+0) | +0.41 (-1) | +30.49 (+1) | +0.33 (+2) | +0.66 (+0) | +3.07 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-08 05:45 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +35/57 | +1.00 (-2) | +16.14 (+0) | +0.63 (+1) | +36.04 (-1) | +0.09 (-1) | +0.40 (-1) | +2.05 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-10 12:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +34/63 | +1.00 (-2) | +23.68 (+0) | +0.62 (+1) | +37.31 (-1) | +0.15 (-2) | +0.84 (-1) | +2.36 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-12 09:15 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +36/70 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.55 (+0) | +0.52 (-1) | +23.45 (+0) | +0.41 (+2) | +1.14 (+1) | +2.25 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-15 14:30 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +39/64 | +1.00 (+2) | +20.56 (+0) | +0.51 (-1) | +37.03 (+1) | +0.14 (+2) | +0.65 (+1) | +1.96 (+1) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-19 05:00 | XAU_ATR | A+ | SELL | trending_down | +49/66 | +1.00 (-2) | +37.80 (+0) | +0.59 (+1) | +49.95 (-1) | +0.41 (-2) | +1.29 (-1) | +4.55 (-1) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-26 15:45 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +33/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +24.05 (+0) | +0.47 (-1) | +41.85 (+1) | +0.19 (+2) | +1.10 (+1) | +2.37 (+1) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-06-30 14:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +32/64 | +0.50 (+1) | +20.61 (+0) | +0.70 (-1) | +28.39 (+1) | +0.13 (+2) | +0.50 (+1) | +2.30 (+2) | +1.00 (-1) | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-06 14:45 | GENERIC | B | SELL | transitioning | +28/67 | +0.50 (-1) | +15.58 (+0) | +0.52 (+1) | +21.20 (+0) | +0.11 (-2) | +0.62 (-1) | +1.61 (-1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-07 05:15 | GENERIC | B | SELL | trending_down | +28/55 | +0.50 (-1) | +21.44 (+0) | +0.45 (+1) | +40.22 (-1) | +0.14 (-2) | +0.42 (-1) | +2.05 (-1) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-07 12:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +35/58 | +0.50 (+1) | +24.63 (+0) | +0.79 (-1) | +27.96 (+1) | +0.50 (+2) | +0.97 (+1) | +3.81 (+1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-14 12:45 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +33/65 | +0.50 (+1) | +34.78 (-1) | +1.05 (-1) | +20.21 (+0) | +0.42 (+2) | +1.86 (+1) | +5.42 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-20 03:45 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +32/61 | +0.50 (+1) | +16.30 (+0) | +0.49 (-1) | +20.82 (+0) | +0.34 (+2) | +0.42 (+1) | +1.92 (+1) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-22 12:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | ranging | +31/69 | +1.00 (+2) | +15.32 (-1) | +0.74 (-1) | +14.12 (+0) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.43 (+1) | +1.92 (+2) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-27 07:30 | GENERIC | B | BUY | trending_up | +33/60 | +1.00 (+2) | +10.74 (+1) | +0.55 (-1) | +29.55 (+1) | +0.09 (+2) | +0.31 (+1) | +1.35 (+0) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-27 14:30 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | transitioning | +32/59 | +0.50 (-1) | +15.83 (+0) | +0.56 (+1) | +24.69 (+0) | +0.27 (-2) | +0.63 (-1) | +2.04 (-1) | | -1.00 (-1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-29 14:15 | GENERIC | A | SELL | trending_down | +39/61 | +1.00 (-2) | +24.24 (+0) | +0.62 (+1) | +30.53 (-1) | +0.35 (-2) | +0.78 (-1) | +2.89 (-1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-29 18:15 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +36/62 | +0.50 (+1) | +30.49 (+0) | +0.76 (-1) | +37.37 (+1) | +0.59 (+2) | +1.76 (+1) | +4.27 (+1) | | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-07-30 14:45 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | trending_up | +42/59 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.68 (+0) | +0.57 (-1) | +33.18 (+1) | +0.20 (+2) | +0.78 (+1) | +2.07 (+1) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-04 17:15 | GENERIC | A | BUY | trending_up | +42/61 | +1.00 (+2) | +18.27 (+0) | +0.53 (-1) | +31.75 (+1) | +0.10 (+2) | +0.50 (+1) | +1.96 (+1) | | | -1.02 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-06 14:45 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | ranging | +37/67 | +1.00 (+2) | +5.66 (+0) | +0.28 (+0) | +13.07 (+0) | +0.12 (+2) | +0.40 (+1) | +0.85 (+2) | | +1.00 (+1) | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-20 12:30 | GENERIC | B | SELL | transitioning | +26/61 | +0.50 (-1) | +23.58 (+1) | +0.62 (+1) | +22.33 (+0) | +0.37 (-2) | +0.51 (+0) | +2.59 (-1) | | | -1.01 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-27 14:15 | XAU_ATR | A | SELL | trending_down | +37/61 | +1.00 (-2) | +16.18 (+0) | +0.44 (+1) | +32.76 (-1) | +0.11 (-2) | +0.52 (-1) | +1.43 (-2) | -1.00 (+1) | | -1.03 |
|
||||
| 2026-08-28 07:00 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +36/61 | +0.00 (+0) | +16.94 (+0) | +0.93 (-1) | +12.29 (+0) | +0.37 (+2) | +0.61 (+1) | +3.10 (+2) | +1.00 (+1) | +1.00 (+1) | -1.04 |
|
||||
| 2026-09-04 08:00 | XAU_ATR | A | BUY | transitioning | +39/76 | +1.00 (+2) | +10.83 (+0) | +0.57 (-1) | +14.15 (+0) | +0.23 (+2) | +0.35 (+0) | +1.43 (+2) | | | -1.04 |
|
||||
|
||||
## Summary for the owner
|
||||
|
||||
| Question | Five-minute book | Fifteen-minute book |
|
||||
|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Where do the wrong-direction trades come from? | Half from chart patterns (74 of 153) and half from indicator setups (73 generic, 6 gold volatility-sized). Chart patterns are wrong a little more often (22% of their trades against 18%); the inverse head-and-shoulders is the weak one (28% wrong, only +4.6R on 86 trades), the double bottom the strong one (17%, +21.5R). | No chart patterns on this timeframe. The gold volatility-sized setup (the grade-A setup) is wrong 24% of the time against 16% for the generic swing setup, and nets only +5.7R on 174 trades; three quarters of the wrong-direction count is generic simply because generic is four fifths of the book. |
|
||||
| What did the indicators read on them? | Practically the same as on the winners. Every separation value is between 0.46 and 0.57 (0.50 = no separation): composite score +31.8 against +33.1, confidence 54 against 55, five of nine indicators agreeing in both groups. The only mild differences: the Keltner vote agreed 73% against 80%, RSI sat at +18 against +21 above the midline, a divergence was present on 24% against 34%. | Same picture, if anything slightly inverted: wrong-direction trades had a marginally higher composite (+36.2 against +35.9) and more exhaustion tags (3 against 2). The only differences above noise sit on the confirmation frames: the first confirmation's candlestick opposed 29% of the wrong-direction trades against 10% of winners (present on 30%), and the second confirmation's EMA alignment agreed 66% against 76%. |
|
||||
| Hours or days? | 05:00 (33% wrong on 52 trades against a 20% base) and 08:00 (24%); the cells Tuesday 05:00 (8 of 16) and Thursday 20:00 (6 of 11). December 2024 and August 2025 were the worst months. | 18:00 (27% on 45 trades against a 17% base) and 22:00 (23%); Wednesday is the only weekday above the base (22% on 189 trades), with Wednesday 18:00 (5 of 13) and 09:00 (6 of 20) the worst cells. July was the worst month in both years (29% and 24%). |
|
||||
|
||||
Reading: the wrong-direction losers were not visibly wrong at entry. The indicator set, the
|
||||
composite, the confidence, the confirmation frames and the stretch measures all read the same as
|
||||
on the winners, which means the direction errors are the noise floor of this signal set, not a
|
||||
systematic misread that another threshold would remove. The two structural readings, the inverse
|
||||
head-and-shoulders on M5 and the gold volatility-sized setup on M15, and the Wednesday / July
|
||||
weakness on M15, are candidates for a rule-1 campaign at most, not changes. The per-trade
|
||||
appendix above lists every wrong-direction loser with its nine primary-timeframe indicator values.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user