Quant review 2026-09-26: alert cooldown, plain-language alerts, M15 grade-A SELL block, 1R printed targets, panel/breach fixes

Live signals.db review (2026-09-04 → 09-25, 100 unique setups replayed on the
scans' stored candles): the stop-hunt claim is refuted (71% of stop-outs ran
≥ 1R past the stop, the same as the books' 70–72%); −25.1R of the −37.8R raw
live book were consecutive-bar re-entries the backtester's 5-bar cooldown never
takes; the cooldown view sits at the 3rd–5th percentile of the books' three-week
windows.

Delivery (book-neutral):
- telegram_bot: 5-bar alert cooldown per timeframe (_ALERT_COOLDOWN_BARS =
  backtest.cooldown_bars); setup block prints the trail first as the tested
  exit, TP1/TP2 as guides with their R, "Planned TP1 RR", and one validated-book
  line per setup class (agent_panel_base_rates.json); the informational 100-pip
  TP line is removed (owner request).
- AI block rewritten for a new trader: "AI check: the odds look better than /
  worse than / about usual", the chance "in 100" against the usual odds, one
  reason for and one against, no verdict word or confidence figure; rendered
  whenever the verdict carries a probability. agent_panel: persona prompts ban
  trading jargon (PANEL_PROMPT_VERSION v2.1-2026-09-26); the macro-source
  verdict now carries its persona's p_win (every live v2 row had
  panel_probability NULL). Dashboard and guides mirror the wording.
- telegram_bot: level-breach rescans skip the settlement-pause window (the
  20:45 M15 bar was re-logged at 22:01/22:06/22:11 every evening).

Signal (pre-registered rule-1 campaign, CUDA twin paired with gpu_backtest.py):
- M15 grade-A SELLs blocked (sell_min_quality ["A+","B"], M15 override 6):
  W2 813/+154.15R PF 1.53 vs 931/+146.14R PF 1.43, OOS +68.5 vs +60.67,
  W3 max DD 20.9 vs 19.3R. PASSED a–f.
- Printed target 1 floored at 1R in every generator (signals.tp_print_floor_rr),
  applied AFTER the min-RR and spread gates so no trade changes; mirrored in
  cuda_signal_kernels.py K2. Label-only re-pin of all four timeframes (only
  tp1/rr_planned columns move). A floor applied before the gate cost −24.6R and
  was rejected.
- FAILED: M15 min_rr_ratio 1.0 (trade-identical, −2.0R). Owner's call: M5
  tp_floor_rr 1.0 (+48.9R W2, max DD 10.1 → 15.9R), not shipped.

New pins: M5 W2 e599c8a8…, M15 W2 5b65ecf6…, M15 OOS 09b8a8e7…, H1 W3
a44fd19b…, H4 W3 f3587bae…; twin and reference MD5s equal on every window.
Base-rate table rebuilt from the new pins. Suite 558 passed.

Evidence: backtest/research/rr_and_sell_campaign_2026-09-26.md (plus the
2026-09-18 loss-anatomy and wrong-direction reports it builds on).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

main.py

@@ -126,10 +126,23 @@ def print_signal_report(report: SignalReport, detail: bool = False):
         print(f"\n  {Colors.BOLD}Setup{Colors.RESET}  "
               f"{dc}{ts.direction}{Colors.RESET} @ {Colors.BOLD}{_fmt_price(ts.entry_price)}{Colors.RESET}  "
               f"→ SL {Colors.RED}{_fmt_price(ts.stop_loss)}{Colors.RESET} "
-              f"({ts.risk_pips:.1f}p)  "
-              f"→ TP {Colors.GREEN}{_fmt_price(ts.take_profit_1)}{Colors.RESET} "
+              f"({ts.risk_pips:.1f}p = 1R)  "
+              f"→ TP1 guide {Colors.GREEN}{_fmt_price(ts.take_profit_1)}{Colors.RESET} "
               f"({ts.reward_pips:.1f}p)  "
-              f"RR 1:{ts.risk_reward:.1f}")
+              f"planned TP1 RR 1:{ts.risk_reward:.1f}")
+        # The trail is the tested exit (the backtester never exits at
+        # TP1); print it with the setup so the CLI says the same thing
+        # as the Telegram alert (2026-09-26).
+        risk_dist = abs(ts.entry_price - ts.stop_loss)
+        arm_r = getattr(ts, "trail_arm_r", 0.0) or 0.0
+        dist_r = getattr(ts, "trail_dist_r", 0.0) or 0.0
+        if arm_r > 0 and risk_dist > 0:
+            arm_price = (ts.entry_price + arm_r * risk_dist if ts.direction == "BUY"
+                         else ts.entry_price - arm_r * risk_dist)
+            print(f"  {Colors.GRAY}Exit rule (tested): once price reaches "
+                  f"{_fmt_price(arm_price)} (+{arm_r:.1f}R), trail the SL "
+                  f"${dist_r * risk_dist:.2f} behind the best price at candle close; "
+                  f"TP1 is a guide only.{Colors.RESET}")
 
     # ── 3. CONTEXT (price · regime · vol · MTF breakdown) ──────────
     print(f"\n  {Colors.WHITE}{report.display_name}{Colors.RESET} "