research: improvement cycle 1 ledger (baseline, cost ladder, C1 reject, C2 plateau, seeding parity)

backtest/research/cycle_2026-09-10.md: pre-registered rules, HEAD baseline
on the 3-year window (three pinned MD5s reproduced), cost ladder and
concentration facts, bucket screen (one cycle-2 candidate: M15 grade-A
SELLs), C1 H1 divergence->0 REJECTED, C2 M15 RSI-multiplier ladder =
stable plateau, seeding-depth measurement and the two shipped parity
fixes. CLAUDE.md: live fetch depth, backtester pad, 501 tests, the
2026-09-10 state entry; corrected the docs note (no PDF builds exist)
and recorded pyarrow as a dev-venv-only dependency.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01NQDjW8rXYrJR4JDWMWKUij

CLAUDE.md

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ Every numeric threshold in `config.py` and `pair_signals/xauusd.py` was backtest
 
 ```bash
 python test_all.py                      # QA suite, no network (mocked); prints its own count
-                                        #  (499 tests / 33 modules as of 2026-09-09)
+                                        #  (501 tests / 33 modules as of 2026-09-10)
 python main.py --pair XAUUSD --timeframe H1 --detail   # CLI signal report (--json for full dump,
                                         #  --panel for the advisory LLM agent panel, --outlook for the
                                         #  hourly AI market brief; the violent-move watch line appears
@@ -65,7 +65,7 @@ Signal currency everywhere is `SignalStrength` (−2..+2). DataFrames are UTC tz
 
 ### Layers
 
-- **`providers/`** — one class per provider subclassing `BaseDataProvider` (`providers/base.py`), which owns everything the pipeline depends on: TTL+boundary cache, forming-candle drop, freshness check, validate/clean, paginated `fetch_range` (feeds the backtester from any provider), optional tick streaming. Subclasses implement only `_fetch_raw` + symbol/interval maps. **Cleaning rule (2026-09-07):** the signal-side outlier filter is a bad-print filter, not a volatility filter — a >10σ close-to-close bar is dropped only when the NEXT close snaps back ≥80% of the way (`OUTLIER_SIGMA`/`OUTLIER_REVERT_FRACTION` on the base class); persisting moves (NFP/CPI/Sunday-gap bars) and the newest bar are always kept. The previous unconditional 10σ rule deleted ~36 real M5 bars/yr in the backtester and a *different* ~24/yr live (window-dependent σ), hiding e.g. the 2026-09-04 12:30 UTC NFP bar from ATR/exhaustion math. Oanda fetches retry 401/5xx/network faults along `RETRY_DELAYS_S` (2/5/10 s) under a 45 s `RETRY_BUDGET_S`; a scan that still loses its primary frame is logged with `scan_kind='failed'`. Registry + `make_data_provider(config, name=None)` in `providers/__init__.py`; config.json `data_providers.active` selects the live candle feed and the optional `data_providers.streaming` scalar selects a different provider for the tick stream. A test enforces that subclasses don't override shared base methods (`supports_streaming`/`iter_ticks` are the sanctioned streaming override points). Tiingo streams mid-price ticks (`wss://api.tiingo.com/fx`) — do not re-add spread display from its free FX feed (two-tier indicative quotes, removed 2026-07-23); the no-spread rule extends to the WS stream.
+- **`providers/`** — one class per provider subclassing `BaseDataProvider` (`providers/base.py`), which owns everything the pipeline depends on: TTL+boundary cache, forming-candle drop, freshness check, validate/clean, paginated `fetch_range` (feeds the backtester from any provider), optional tick streaming. Subclasses implement only `_fetch_raw` + symbol/interval maps. **Cleaning rule (2026-09-07):** the signal-side outlier filter is a bad-print filter, not a volatility filter — a >10σ close-to-close bar is dropped only when the NEXT close snaps back ≥80% of the way (`OUTLIER_SIGMA`/`OUTLIER_REVERT_FRACTION` on the base class); persisting moves (NFP/CPI/Sunday-gap bars) and the newest bar are always kept. The previous unconditional 10σ rule deleted ~36 real M5 bars/yr in the backtester and a *different* ~24/yr live (window-dependent σ), hiding e.g. the 2026-09-04 12:30 UTC NFP bar from ATR/exhaustion math. Oanda fetches retry 401/5xx/network faults along `RETRY_DELAYS_S` (2/5/10 s) under a 45 s `RETRY_BUDGET_S`; a scan that still loses its primary frame is logged with `scan_kind='failed'`. **Live fetch depth (2026-09-10):** every live fetch requests `max(MIN_LIVE_BARS=1000, min(60 days × bars/day + 20, 5000))` bars (`_live_outputsize`) — M5/M15 5000, H1 1460, H4 1000 (was 380), D1 1000 (was 300). The engine's EMAs use `ewm(adjust=False)`, so the first bar of the frame keeps weight (1−2/201)^n in the 200-bar trend EMA; at 380/300 bars the live H4/D1 trend reading flipped on ~0.3–0.75% of bars versus the backtester's converged history (and on the live D1 bar of 2026-09-10 itself), at ≥ 600 bars on none (`backtest/research/cycle_2026-09-10.md`). Registry + `make_data_provider(config, name=None)` in `providers/__init__.py`; config.json `data_providers.active` selects the live candle feed and the optional `data_providers.streaming` scalar selects a different provider for the tick stream. A test enforces that subclasses don't override shared base methods (`supports_streaming`/`iter_ticks` are the sanctioned streaming override points). Tiingo streams mid-price ticks (`wss://api.tiingo.com/fx`) — do not re-add spread display from its free FX feed (two-tier indicative quotes, removed 2026-07-23); the no-spread rule extends to the WS stream.
 - **`engine.py`** — `TechnicalEngine`: 9 scored indicators (ema_trend, rsi, macd, bollinger, adx, roc, keltner, divergence, candlestick) + ATR as context. Regime classification (trending_up/down, `trending` = mixed/direction-UNKNOWN, transitioning, ranging) drives per-indicator weight multipliers and regime-aware RSI reinterpretation. Compute order matters (ATR first; MACD always computed even when not a pillar — divergence needs the histogram). Private series ride on the result as `_underscore` attrs; scorers/formatters skip anything `_`-prefixed or weight-0.
 - **`signal_aggregator.py`** — MTF agreement, diminishing-decay penalty system, exhaustion hard block, quality grading, then an ordered chain of post-grade gates (session, XAU SELL quality/vol/hour, regime blocks, M5 noise gates), then three setup generators: XAU ATR (A+/A), generic swing-based, plus the M5 pullback (`XAU_PB`) and chart-pattern (`XAU_CP`, `chart_patterns.py`) entry paths. Step 7 lives in `_attach_core_setup`; a final pass after the PB/CP archetypes (`_drop_stale_spread_gate_vetoes`, 2026-09-08) moves a core generator's `SPREAD GATE:` veto to `cleaned_warnings` whenever a later generator shipped a setup (metadata only — books unchanged; the exported `warnings` text column can differ; the prefix is the `_SPREAD_GATE_PREFIX` constant shared by the emitters and both cleanups). The PB/CP generators run AFTER the gate chain and force quality to "B"; the CP path deliberately accepts grade-F composites and re-checks only session/day/big-candle (via warning prefixes) plus its own SELL/vol/RSI gates — it does NOT re-check exhaustion or the M5 min-score/MTF gates. **This is validated behavior, not a bug** (2026-08-04 audit: 226/586 trades in the shipped M5 12mo book are XAU_CP, +38.9R, 104 of them exhaustion-flagged and net-positive) — changing it is a rule-1 revalidation event. `TradeSetup.strategy` selects trailing params; trail params are stamped on the setup from the *producing* config so per-TF overrides reach formatters.
 - **`pair_signals/`** — per-pair config factories. **Always use the factory (`produce_signal` / `make_config`), never bare `PlatformConfig()`** — the factory applies the config.json overlay first, then the validated per-TF deltas (M5 hour-9 block, M15 trail arm 0.70, M15 SELL-hour block, M5 SELL-in-transitioning block, H1 all-shorts block (2026-09-03), M15 RSI regime-multiplier × 0.5 via `technical.regime_weights_override` (2026-09-09), etc.; evidence in the docstring). A test enforces factory ≡ inline-config equivalence. Confirmation map: M5→[M15,H1], M15→[M5,H1], H1→[M15,H4], H4→[H1,D1].
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ Signal currency everywhere is `SignalStrength` (−2..+2). DataFrames are UTC tz
 - **`violent_watch.py`** — **display-only** violent-move watch, dark by default (`violent_watch` config block: `enabled`, `alert_line`, `headsup`, `max_headsup_per_day`, `headsup_min_level`; env `VIOLENT_WATCH_ENABLED`). Flags when a "violent bar" (range ≥ 3× prior ATR14) is unusually likely and stamps `SignalReport.watch_line` **post-hoc** via `attach_watch` (telegram alert path, `main.py`, `dashboard_publisher`) — same contract as the agent panel: never imported by `signal_aggregator`/`engine`/`backtest/`, never raises, never read by a gate (test-locked, Module 30). Triggers: a high-impact **USD** calendar release within ±30 min (hot), hot clock slots (weekday 12–14 UTC, weekday 01 UTC, Sunday reopen 22–23 UTC), and **price-extreme** indicator readings (outside the Bollinger bands, RSI <30 / ≥70, outside the Keltner channel). Level = hot when the calendar fires or a clock slot plus ≥1 price extreme; watch on a clock slot alone or ≥2 price extremes. Context readings (ADX slope >3, volatility "extreme", regime "transitioning", MACD STRONG_BUY/STRONG_SELL) are printed but **never raise the level** — the first draft that let them count flagged 27% of bars "hot" at only ~2× odds; the shipped rule flags 8.6% at 3–5× (evidence: `backtest/research/sizing_campaign_2026-09.md` addenda). Direction is called DOWN on bearish readings (70–78% on M5 and M15) and UP only on M5. Telegram also sends a standalone heads-up on the fastest scanned TF (`_HEADSUP_TF`), rate-limited per UTC hour+trigger-set and per day; it explicitly tells the owner **not** to touch open trades — every protection tested lost money, the stop is the protection.
 - **`telegram_bot.py`** — owner-locked bot + subscriber channel; candle-boundary auto-scan loops (M5/M15/H1/H4, boundary+10 s), alert quality threshold + fingerprint dedup (committed only after a successful send; the fingerprint is signal+direction — grade is NOT part of it, a grade UPGRADE re-alerts, an A↔B flicker does not), 📰 LLM market-context line on alerts when available, WebSocket level-breach monitor fed by the streaming provider (`data_providers.streaming`, falling back to the active provider; auto-disabled when the resolved provider can't stream or has no API key — Oanda does not stream, Tiingo does). The breach handler reuses this bar's M15 report (`_cached_or_scan`, keyed by closed-bar epoch) instead of rescanning — it used to log 3.5 M15 rows per candle. **Alerts require a trade setup (2026-09-08):** `_is_alert_candidate` (shared by the scan and breach paths) needs non-neutral + grade ≥ threshold + `trade_setup`; a signal every generator declined used to go out anyway (a B-grade no-setup SELL under a "costs would eat the edge" warning). **Sends are logged:** every delivered alert / breach alert / violent-move heads-up writes an `… sent:` INFO line carrying the signal-log row id, and a no-setup candidate writes `alert skipped: … (gate reason)` — before this only failures were logged and a review had to reconstruct sends from panel rows. Rotating log: `logs/telegram.log`, one file per server-local day × 30 backups (was 3-h × 240 until 2026-09-08; the old `_HH`-suffixed files on the live box are not matched by the daily cleanup and need one manual delete).
 - **`dashboard_publisher.py` / `static/dashboard.html`** — web dashboard as a **static publisher** (live LAMP server): standalone daemon scans at candle closes via `produce_signal` and atomically writes `snapshot.json`/`news.json`/`dashboard.html` to `$DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR` (Apache serves them; page is public by owner decision). **Hard independence rule: never imports, and is never imported by, `telegram_bot`** — confirmation map and boundary math are deliberate local copies, so a web-side failure can only mean a stale page. Due-TF classification uses the RAW wake time (flooring wake−buffer skips every H1/H4 scan — 2026-08-02 bug). News panel reads `NewsEngine.get_fundamental_context()` plus the additive `get_week_events()` accessor (display-only; no signal path calls it); as a separate process it has its own news caches and DeepSeek daily cap. News/calendar rows are clickable (detail dialog); headlines carry `id` = sha1(headline) in news.json, and exactly one on-demand endpoint exists: `static/news_summary.php` (installed by `install_static`), which serves a DeepSeek gold-impact summary per headline — whitelist-gated against news.json ids, cache-forever in `ai/`, own fail-closed daily cap (150/day, file-based, separate from the publisher's), key at `/etc/gold-dashboard/deepseek.key`, never reads repo config. Deployment checklist: `deploy/README-dashboard.md`.
-- **`backtest/gpu_backtest.py`** — bar-by-bar replay through the real `analyze_from_dataframes` (news off). Realism model (do not regress): next-bar-open entries re-anchored to the raw price path, round-trip `--spread` charged per trade, trade resolution on RAW bars (cleaning applies only to signal-side data), same-bar SL+TP tie → SL first, gap fills at bar open, trail ratchet at bar close only. Indicators are precomputed once per TF (CuPy GPU or NumPy fallback — check the `Backend:` log line); replay fans out over worker processes and the 5-bar cooldown is applied in an ordered pass afterwards, so parallel and sequential books are identical. Parquet cache in `backtest/cache/` keyed by provider/symbol/TF/window. `backtest/*.csv` are gitignored pinned trade books from past campaigns — used for manual before/after comparison. `backtest/instructions_for_backtest.txt` lists what every backtest report must record.
+- **`backtest/gpu_backtest.py`** — bar-by-bar replay through the real `analyze_from_dataframes` (news off). Realism model (do not regress): next-bar-open entries re-anchored to the raw price path, round-trip `--spread` charged per trade, trade resolution on RAW bars (cleaning applies only to signal-side data), same-bar SL+TP tie → SL first, gap fills at bar open, trail ratchet at bar close only. Indicators are precomputed once per TF over the whole cached history (CuPy GPU or NumPy fallback — check the `Backend:` log line); the per-TF warm-up pad before `--start` is `_history_pad_days` (62 days for M5/M15/H1, 234 for H4, 1400 for D1 — the same 1000-bar seed the live floor guarantees; 2026-09-10, no trade in any book moved); replay fans out over worker processes and the 5-bar cooldown is applied in an ordered pass afterwards, so parallel and sequential books are identical. Parquet cache in `backtest/cache/` keyed by provider/symbol/TF/window. `backtest/*.csv` are gitignored pinned trade books from past campaigns — used for manual before/after comparison. `backtest/instructions_for_backtest.txt` lists what every backtest report must record.
 
 ## Rules for making changes (read before editing signal logic)
 
@@ -104,7 +104,7 @@ Signal currency everywhere is `SignalStrength` (−2..+2). DataFrames are UTC tz
 - Cost reporting is dual: $0.65 is the measured-Oanda realistic headline ($0.65-$0.72 round trip), while $0.30 remains for cross-book comparability and as the live TP spread-gate input. Raising `round_trip_cost` from $0.30 would move the TP floor from about $9 to $19.50 and requires full rule-1 revalidation. The $0.65 figure comes from the 2026-07-24 Dukascopy tick study (9M ticks over 12 months; its tooling was removed 2026-09-06 — the conclusion lives here and in memory).
 - Twelve Data is signal-incompatible with Oanda (Phase 1: about 19% M5 bar-direction disagreement and a systematic ~$1 high bias; see `backtest/research/feed_divergence_2026-08-14.md`). On an Oanda candle outage, stop scanning rather than switching to TD candles.
 - Tiingo is streaming-only (`data_providers.streaming: "tiingo"`), not a designated candle fallback. Oanda-Tiingo signal parity is documented in `backtest/research/signal_parity_2026-08-14.md`; Phase 4's two-week live shadow scan (`scripts/shadow_scan.py`) remains a manual operational step.
-- Human-facing docs in `docs/` (`user_guide.html`, `beginner_guide.html` + PDF builds) must be kept in sync when signal behavior changes. As of 2026-09-06 the PDF builds are BEHIND the HTML (violent-move watch entry added without a PDF rebuild).
+- Human-facing docs in `docs/` (`user_guide.html`, `beginner_guide.html`) must be kept in sync when signal behavior changes. There are NO PDF builds in the tree (checked 2026-09-10; earlier notes about PDFs lagging the HTML are moot). The backtester and the replay recorder read/write Parquet through `pyarrow`, which is installed in the dev `venv/` but deliberately absent from `requirements.txt` (live code never touches Parquet).
 - 2026-09-03 signal-log campaign shipped two new per-TF gates (`backtest/research/signal_log_campaign_2026-09.md`): M5 `sell_blocked_regimes=["transitioning"]` and H1 `sell_min_quality=[]` (all H1 shorts blocked). Current-HEAD M5 canonical book is now `backtest/oanda_m5_12mo_065_nopb_20260903.csv` (557 / +112.21R / PF 1.56, halves +55.9/+56.4); H1 reference `backtest/oanda_h1_12mo_065_20260903.csv` (91 / +22.2R / PF 1.79; 5yr +49.1R PF 1.46; OOS +16.7R PF 1.74).
 - 2026-09-06 stake-sizing campaign (`backtest/research/sizing_campaign_2026-09.md`): a walk-forward "second opinion" stake multiplier (meta-labelling on 65 decision-time features, 3-year Oanda books at $0.65) FAILED the pre-registered rule on M5 (clean null) and M15 (lift inside the label-shuffle null, explained by BUY-vs-SELL). Nothing that changes numbers shipped. Behaviour-neutral tooling remains: `position_sizing.build_features` + `--export-features` (default export stays 63 columns), `SignalReport.penalty_tags/penalty_total/momentum_fading`, `TradeSetup.stake_multiplier` (None; reserved) (the campaign's research scripts were removed 2026-09-06; git history has them). Stage-B facts: M5 stretch measures are POSITIVE in both halves (do not re-propose exhaustion sizing on M5); M15 exhaustion tag is weakly negative (≈ +3R/yr, noise); bursts cluster at 12–15 UTC and 01 UTC bar-close and do NOT hurt entries.
 - Auto-execution (oanda_daemon.py / oanda_executor.py) was removed 2026-09-03 — the owner is not auto-trading; last commit containing it is 31002cb. Book-parity rules that lived in its docstring (no broker TP, 5-bar cooldown, once-per-bar trail) remain the backtester's model.
@@ -114,3 +114,4 @@ Signal currency everywhere is `SignalStrength` (−2..+2). DataFrames are UTC tz
 - 2026-09-08 news archive shipped (`news_archive.py`, 483 tests; nothing in the signal core changed, both news gating flags stay `False`, books untouched). Motivation: headlines only ever survived as a side effect of signal logging and `signals.db` was rotated around 2026-09-04, destroying the 3-week / 4,054-headline corpus the news study was written on — with `logs/` gitignored, git could not recover it and nobody noticed for four days. Day-one corpus after backfilling both DBs on disk: **1,016 distinct headlines, 846 of them DeepSeek-labelled**, growing ~200/day (~1,400/week). The point of collecting it: distil DeepSeek's headline scoring (78/78 on the 2026-08-06 golden set) into a numpy-only local model so the fallback stops being the keyword scorer (**24/78 = 31%**, which is what silently runs on no key / disabled / daily cap / timeout / HTTP or parse failure / batch overflow). **Do not train yet** — 800-odd labels gives a holdout too small to grade (SE ±0.032); the pre-registered plan is ~4,000 deduplicated headlines over ≥3 weeks, time-split with near-duplicates clustered first (the same story is re-titled by several outlets, so a random split scores memorisation), headline text ONLY (the teacher never sees `description` — `_llm_headline_scores` sends titles), graded against the golden set recoverable with `git show 1cebebf^:backtest/research/llm_news_golden.csv`. When it ships it slots in as DeepSeek → model → keyword and stays display-only. Training happens offline in `venv/`; a Module 32 test now AST-walks the root, `providers/` and `pair_signals/` asserting no `sklearn`/`scipy`/`lightgbm`/`torch` import and that none of them reach `requirements.txt` — that guard did not exist before.
 - 2026-09-09 replay recording shipped (`backtest/replay_record.py`, `backtest/replay_scorecard.py`, Module 33, 498 tests; nothing in the signal core changed, books byte-identical — `backtest/research/replay_recording_2026-09-09.md`). `--record DIR` stores every ACCEPTED trade's decision evidence in Parquet: each indicator's vote / value / confidence / BASE weight / regime multiplier / EFFECTIVE weight / contribution on the primary AND both confirmation TFs (`indicators.parquet`, long; absence = the indicator did not fire, never a zero row), per-TF regime/composite, penalty tags, setup, outcome, and the Forex Factory calendar events from 4 h before entry to exit (`events.parquet`, all-day rows matched on the New-York date; scalar `ev_*`/`us_holiday` columns on `trades.parquet`); `--record-bars` adds one float32 row per ANALYZED bar with the same votes plus 1 h/4 h/24 h forward moves in ATRs (`bars.parquet`). The manifest carries the engine + gate fingerprints, the regime weight table in force and the book MD5. Calendar source is the gitignored `backtest/cache/calendar.parquet` (15,124 FF events 2023-09-01→2026-09-10, unix-UTC `dateline`; `timeLabel` is display-only); the scraper that built it is back at `scripts/ff_calendar_scraper.py` (resume + idempotent merge, ~1.6 s/request). The 2-year books (2024-09-05→2026-09-05, $0.65) live in `backtest/research/replay_2026-09/{m5,m15}/`: M5 781 / +146.07R / PF 1.52 (halves +28.0/+118.1), M15 793 / +117.62R / PF 1.41 (halves +38.2/+79.4); control-vs-recorded MD5 equal on both. First-look facts are descriptive only (Bollinger opposes 94% of M5 entries; divergence-opposed M5 trades did best again; every indicator's SELL votes were followed by moves against them on both TFs; the bar-level baseline drifts +1.9 ATR/24 h on M5 so BUY votes must be drift-adjusted first) — every candidate change stays a rule-1 rerun with a control book.
 - 2026-09-09 weight-change test (`backtest/research/weight_test_2026-09-09.md`, first use of the recorded replay files): a drift-adjusted per-bar screen ranked 108 regime-multiplier candidates per TF; the top 3 per TF (24 h-sign filter) went through the full 2-year replay against same-harness controls plus the 2024-06→2025-03 OOS window under a rule pre-registered before any run. M5: all three MACD candidates FAIL (−10 to −46R; the screen ranked them first — never trust the per-bar screen on M5 without a replay). M15: ema_trend × 2 FAILS (PF 1.32, DD 26R, +55% trades), divergence → 0 in trending FAILS (H1 −3R, DD); **RSI multiplier × 0.5 in every regime PASSES a–f** (2-yr 793/+117.6R/PF 1.41 → 931/+146.1R/PF 1.43, halves +27.9/+0.6, OOS +40.6 → +60.7R PF 1.49, 3-yr +151.9 → +186.6R PF 1.39 but max DD 15.5 → 19.3R and 2026 −4R; added trades are mostly B-grade BUYs). SHIPPED the same day on the owner's decision as an M15-only `technical.regime_weights_override` in `pair_signals/xauusd.py` (M15 override 5: the shipped table with RSI halved in every regime — 0.5 trending family / 0.75 ranging / 0.5 transitioning; derived from the default table, pinned literally by the Module 9 equivalence test) — the factory run without `--set` reproduces the validated candidate book byte-for-byte (parity MD5 in `weight_test_2026-09-09.md`); M15 canonical book re-pinned to `backtest/oanda_m15_2yr_065_20260909.csv`. Live M15 `engine_fingerprint` changes from that deploy; signal-log comparisons across it must split at the deploy time. Suite 499 tests.
+- 2026-09-10 improvement cycle 1 (`backtest/research/cycle_2026-09-10.md`; 501 tests; no signal-core change): HEAD baseline re-established on the 3-yr window at $0.65 (M5 870/+153.6R/PF 1.50, M15 1273/+186.6/1.39, H1 253/+70.0/1.98, H4 114/+21.7/1.59) and the three pinned MD5s (M5 2-yr, M15 2-yr, M15 OOS) reproduced exactly. Robustness: the cost ladder trips no red flag (every TF keeps PF ≥ 1.3 with positive halves at $0.80; at $1.30 M5 PF 1.36, M15 1.29, H1 1.89, H4 1.53); the intraday edge is a fat right tail (top 5% of trades carry 94% of M5 R and 96% of M15 R, versus 48% on H1; M5 2024 was flat at +1.0R over 102 trades). Pre-registered bucket screen: exactly one qualifying bucket — M15 grade-A SELLs (230 / −14.4R, negative in all three years and OOS; the 2026-09-03 5-yr run said the opposite) — parked as the only cycle-2 candidate. **C1 REJECTED:** H1 divergence multiplier → 0 in every regime (the parked 2026-09 candidate on its now-sanctioned vehicle): 3-yr ΔR +1.0, second half −1.5R, PF 1.98 → 1.89 (its OOS book 88/+21.9/PF 1.92 is trade-identical to the old `disabled_indicators` run, so a 0.0 regime multiplier ≡ disabling for the composite). **C2:** the M15 RSI × 0.5 ship sits on a stable plateau (k = 0.25 / 0.75 keep 78% / 71% of its 2-yr gain, both OOS-positive; R is monotone in k across 0…1.5) — no other k proposed. **Seeding parity SHIPPED:** live fetches floor at `MIN_LIVE_BARS = 1000` (H4 380 → 1000, D1 300 → 1000; measured ema_trend flips 2/267 H4 and 1/313 D1 bars at the old depths, none ≥ 600; the live D1 bar of 2026-09-10 itself read SELL at 300 bars and NEUTRAL at 1000/5000) and the backtester pad targets the same depth (`_history_pad_days`: 62 / 234 / 1400 days) — M5/M15 3-yr books byte-identical, H1/H4 trade-identical with only window-start float noise in the exported columns, so no re-pin. Also fixed in these notes: no PDF docs exist; `pyarrow` is a dev-venv-only dependency of the backtester/recorder.