chore: repo hygiene — stale gitignore entries, finished plans, superseded research, doc drift

Removed (all recoverable from git history):
- llm_provider_switch_plan.txt: 2026-08-08 DeepSeek/Anthropic multi-provider plan that
  was never implemented (llm_client.py is DeepSeek-only, no `anthropic` anywhere)
- docs/superpowers/specs/2026-07-21-centralized-config-design.md: spec of the
  config.json migration that merged the same day; its plan sibling was already
  deleted in b936d44. app_config's docstring pointer goes with it.
- scripts/compare_oanda_tiingo.py: Phase 0 recent-tail smoke test, superseded by the
  Phase 1/2 study scripts (result recorded in the test plan)
- backtest/research/fetch_oanda_m15.py + oanda_td_divergence.py + its by-hour CSV:
  the 2026-07-24 Oanda-vs-Twelve-Data study, superseded by the 2026-08-14 feed
  divergence report (which keeps a one-line citation)
- backtest/research/burst_profile.py and hour_analysis.py: superseded by burst_map.py
  and book_report.py
- backtest/research/panel_payload_drytest_2026-08-15.py: one-off live DeepSeek probe;
  its .jsonl evidence stays

Added to git: the three 2026-08-14 research reports (feed divergence, re-pin
verification, signal parity), their CSV, and docs/data_source_change_test_plan.md -
CLAUDE.md cites them as standing evidence and their driver scripts were already
committed. The test plan no longer refers to auto-execution.

Hygiene:
- .gitignore: drop oanda_state.json (daemon removed 2026-09-03) and the vanished
  backtest/trailgrid dirs; ignore .coverage
- docs/architecture_diagram.py only writes the PNG when run as a script (it used
  to plot on import); test box refreshed to 461 tests / 31 modules; PNG regenerated
  (the committed one still drew the removed daemon)
- backtest/instructions_for_backtest.txt: manual-journal head replaced by the
  actual reporting checklist; the 2026-09-06 addendum is unchanged
- doc drift: README/publisher list all six published files; news_summary.php says
  4 h (not 24 h) and drops the pre-id sha1 fallback whose window closed;
  analyze_signal_log lists six lenses and --scan-outcomes; agent_panel cost model
  says 4 requests by default; tiingo comment cites the NY-anchored weekend;
  Module 21 title no longer says "execution lifecycle"

Suite: 461 passed, 0 failed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0156YhogLytzj9P2iH1skGbL

docs/data_source_change_test_plan.md

@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+# Test Plan — Data Source Change Validation
+
+**Purpose:** determine whether switching `data_providers.active` (e.g. Twelve Data → Oanda, or any future provider swap) changes signal calculations materially, and gate the switch on evidence.
+
+**Status:** in progress, 2026-08-14
+
+> **Progress (2026-08-14):** Phase 0 ✅, Phase 1 ✅ (`backtest/research/feed_divergence_2026-08-14.md`), Phase 2 ✅ (`backtest/research/signal_parity_2026-08-14.md`), Phase 3 ✅ (`backtest/research/repin_verification_2026-08-14.md` — re-pin already existed), Phase 4 🔨 tool ready (`scripts/shadow_scan.py`, needs a 2-week run — launch manually per owner decision), Phase 5 owner decisions recorded (dual cost reporting; Tiingo streaming-only; see bottom).
+**Context:** Oanda has been the live feed since 2026-07-28. The backtest books were **re-pinned on Oanda bars on 2026-08-04** (`backtest/oanda_*.csv` — 27 books, now the baseline; all TD-era books superseded). Cost reporting is dual: $0.30 retained for cross-book comparability, $0.65 is the realistic headline (measured Oanda round trip $0.65–0.72). Twelve Data was proven signal-incompatible in Phase 1 (~19% of M5 bars disagree on direction; systematic ~$1 bias) — it is NOT a valid candle fallback.
+
+**Why signals can differ between feeds** (mechanisms to test):
+
+- Feeds publish different mid prices → tiny OHLC diffs shift every indicator; near a threshold (RSI band, `FB2_EMA_LO` EMA200-proximity band, composite/grade cutoffs, M5 min-score gate) one bar's discrete score flips.
+- Gate edge cases turn a tiny price diff into "setup generated" vs "no signal".
+- ATR-derived SL/TP/trail levels differ even when the signal is identical.
+- The shared 10σ cleaning pass can drop different bars per feed.
+- Volume present (Oanda) vs absent (Tiingo FX); real spread (Oanda MBA) vs pair default (Tiingo).
+- Known reference point: H4 seeding divergence — same provider, different fetch depth flipped ~2% of indicator signals (composite Δ up to 12.3). Cross-feed diffs act the same way.
+
+---
+
+## Phase 0 — Recent-bar parity smoke test ✅ DONE
+
+- **Tool:** `scripts/compare_oanda_tiingo.py` (removed 2026-09-06 once Phases 1-2 superseded it; the result is recorded here)
+- **Result 2026-08-14:** 10/10 timestamp alignment on M5/M15/H1, Close max |Δ| ≤ $0.175 (≤ 0.004% of price), no directional bias.
+- **Verdict:** recent-tail parity confirmed. Does NOT cover historical depth — proceed to Phase 1.
+
+## Phase 1 — Historical candle divergence study
+
+**Goal:** quantify raw-data divergence over the full window used for validation, not just the recent tail.
+
+- [x] Extend the comparison script to use `fetch_range` (paginated, raw bars) for both providers over **≥ 12 months** for M5, M15, H1 (and H4 if in scope).
+- [x] Record per TF:
+  - % of bar timestamps present in both feeds; list of missing/extra bars (gaps, holidays, weekend boundary handling).
+  - OHLC |Δ| distribution: p50 / p95 / p99 / max, in $ and % of price.
+  - Count of bars dropped by `validate_and_clean` on each feed (10σ outliers, malformed).
+  - Bar-close timestamp conventions (alignment, DST behavior around US transitions).
+- [x] **Pass criteria (measured on the weekend-filtered bar grid — the aggregator's NY-anchored `_is_forex_weekend` decides which bars exist for signal purposes, so raw timestamp overlap includes coverage-only diffs like Tiingo's Sunday bars and is NOT the criterion):** ≥ 99.5% overlap of *signal-eligible* bar timestamps; Close p95 |Δ| ≤ 0.01% of price; no systematic bias (mean Δ ≈ 0); no unexplained multi-hour gaps unique to one feed. (Raw-overlap result 2026-08-14: 94.6–96.6% vs Tiingo — entirely explained by Tiingo's ~22h/week of flat Sunday bars, which the weekend filter gates out.)
+- [x] Write findings to `backtest/research/feed_divergence_<date>.md` with tables and the exact commands used.
+
+## Phase 2 — Signal-level replay parity
+
+**Goal:** measure how often candle divergence actually changes a *decision*.
+
+- [x] Replay bar-by-bar through the real `analyze_from_dataframes` (news off) for both feeds over the same ≥ 12-month window, per TF (M5, M15, H1). Reuse the gpu_backtest replay harness; disable the parquet cache (`--no-cache`) or use separate cache keys per provider.
+- [x] Compare per bar: signal direction, composite score, quality grade, gate outcomes (which gate fired), setup presence, strategy label (XAU ATR / XAU_PB / XAU_CP), entry/SL/TP prices.
+- [x] Metrics:
+  - % bars with identical direction+grade.
+  - Direction flips, grade changes, gate-only changes (setup appears/disappears).
+  - Distribution of composite Δ on mismatched bars.
+  - For matching signals: mean/max |Δ| of entry, SL, TP1/TP2 in $ and in ATR fractions.
+- [x] **Result (Oanda↔Tiingo):** 98.32% / 98.16% same direction (M15/M5), zero opposite-sign flips; 93.41% / 94.21% same direction+grade+setup. The original ≥97% direction+grade proposal is too strict for benign grade-letter changes and was not met; fallback acceptance is direction ≥98%, zero sign flips, and marginal/boundary-hour-only flips. See `signal_parity_2026-08-14.md`.
+
+## Phase 3 — Backtest re-pin on the new feed
+
+**Goal:** a new pinned book on the new provider's bars, evaluated under rule 1 acceptance criteria.
+
+- [x] **Provider selection:** `gpu_backtest.py` has **no `--provider` flag** — it builds the provider from `data_providers.active` in config.json (`gpu_backtest.py:1753`). A cross-provider run requires flipping that config line. The parquet cache is already keyed per provider (`gpu_backtest.py:984` — `oanda_`-prefixed files vs legacy unprefixed TD files), so TD and Oanda data cannot mix in cache; `--no-cache` is only needed to force a refetch.
+- [x] Run the full backtest on new-feed bars, both cost assumptions:
+  ```bash
+  python backtest/gpu_backtest.py --pair XAUUSD --days 365 --spread 0.30 --export-csv backtest/repin_<provider>_m15_030.csv
+  python backtest/gpu_backtest.py --pair XAUUSD --days 365 --spread 0.65 --export-csv backtest/repin_<provider>_m15_065.csv
+  ```
+  (repeat for each TF under test; note the `Backend:` log line and provider in the report per `backtest/instructions_for_backtest.txt`).
+- [x] Split into train/validation halves; require **positive total R in both halves and PF ≥ 1.3 at realistic cost** (rule 1), with trailing exits and next-open fills untouched.
+- [x] Marginal configs additionally pass the **2024-06 → 2025-03 OOS window** (within-year splits alone have approved configs that later failed OOS).
+- [x] ~~Compare against the pinned Twelve-Data book trade-by-trade~~ **AMENDED 2026-08-14:** skipped with justification — Phase 1 showed TD bars disagree on direction 19% of the time on M5 with a systematic ~$1 bias, so a TD-pinned book is a different instrument's book and a trade-level diff carries no decision value. Phantom-trade classes remain documented (e.g. the weekend-calendar fix already dropped exactly one live-impossible M5 trade).
+- [x] **Deliverable:** re-pinned book + report in `backtest/research/`; update the reference numbers in CLAUDE.md if the book is adopted. Current-HEAD M5 canonical book: `backtest/oanda_m5_12mo_065_nopb_20260814.csv`, +106.82R PF 1.51.
+
+## Phase 4 — Live shadow comparison
+
+**Goal:** confirm parity under real fetch depths, caching, and boundary timing — not just history.
+
+- [ ] Run a shadow scan loop (no orders, no Telegram) for **≥ 2 weeks**: each candle close, scan with both providers, log direction/grade/gates/setup to a side-by-side file or SQLite table.
+- [ ] Include at least one weekend transition and one news-heavy day in the window.
+- [ ] Track: scan-to-scan agreement rate, feed-lag incidents ("feed lagging — just-closed bar missing"), staleness warnings, spread readings (Oanda real vs Tiingo default).
+- [ ] **Acceptance thresholds (baseline = Phase 2 replay parity):** ≥ 98% direction agreement; **zero** opposite-sign (BUY↔SELL) flips; direction flips confined to actionable↔NEUTRAL at marginal composites, clustered only at Friday-close/Sunday-reopen (UTC 22–23) and Asian (03–04) hours; setup-level drift (SL/TP) within the Phase 2 envelope (mean |Δ| ≲ $3, p95 ≲ $17 on M15); every feed-lag/staleness incident explained.
+- [ ] H4 caution: live H4 fetches only 380 bars vs unbounded backtest history (known ~2% indicator-signal flip from seeding alone) — keep H4 labeled "unproven" until a dedicated campaign closes this.
+
+## Phase 5 — Cutover checklist
+
+- [x] `config.json` `data_providers.active: "oanda"` and `data_providers.streaming: "tiingo"` set deliberately (verified 2026-08-14 — Oanda cannot stream; Tiingo streams).
+- [x] Cost model: **dual reporting adopted (owner decision 2026-08-14)** — $0.65 (measured Oanda round trip) is the realistic headline, $0.30 retained for cross-book comparability with TD-era books. ⚠️ **Cost-gate coupling:** `config.py round_trip_cost` (0.30) is NOT just a backtest knob — it feeds the live TP1 spread gate (`min_tp = round_trip_cost × min_tp_cost_multiple`, three sites in `signal_aggregator.py`). Raising it to 0.65 moves the TP1 floor from ~$9 to ~$19.50 and is a rule-1 revalidation event, not a config tweak. `round_trip_cost` stays 0.30.
+- [x] QA suite green: `python test_all.py` (381 tests; verified 2026-08-14).
+- [ ] Week 1 post-cutover: daily review of `logs/signals.db` rows vs shadow log; alert on grade/direction disagreement beyond the Phase 2 baseline rate.
+- [ ] Rollback: revert `data_providers.active`; pinned books of the previous feed remain valid for comparison. ⚠️ Twelve Data is a permanent *registered* fallback but is **signal-incompatible** (Phase 1) — on an Oanda candle outage, stop scanning rather than switching `active` to `twelve_data`; a TD-fed book cannot be compared to the Oanda baseline.
+- [x] Docs sync (CLAUDE.md rule): `docs/user_guide.html` backtest numbers reflect the Oanda-pinned books, not TD-era numbers.
+
+## Open questions — RESOLVED 2026-08-14 (owner decisions)
+
+- ~~Adopt which spread as canonical~~ → **dual reporting**: $0.65 realistic headline + $0.30 cross-book comparability; `round_trip_cost` stays 0.30 (gate coupling above).
+- ~~Tiingo role~~ → **streaming-only**. Tiingo remains registered for the WS tick stream and comparison research, but is not a designated candle fallback; candle fallback is a manual halt-and-decide, never an automatic TD failover.
+- H4 seeding campaign (parked since 2026-08-04) → **still needs an owner**; H4 stays "unproven" until then.