news corpus for a local scorer + agent panel v2 + dashboard read-only (2026-09-17); books byte-identical

Agent panel v2: personas return p_win anchored to the book base rates with a
code-computed decision context; verdict = equal-weight mean (verdict_source
"mean"); only the macro persona runs live (agent_panel.personas ["macro"]);
prompt version and exact payloads logged; offline replay harness
scripts/panel_replay.py; base-rate table agent_panel_base_rates.json
(scripts/build_panel_base_rates.py). Backtester `strategy` column now carries
the generator's own stamp (label-only; five reference books re-pinned, all
62 other columns identical).

News corpus (after evaluating the owner's ML-NEWS scikit model against
DeepSeek: golden set 39/78 vs 78/78, out-of-sample agreement 64% against a
90% self-agreement ceiling; verdict: fallback only, not a replacement):
- NewsSentiment.xau_score + archive column xau_score keep DeepSeek's gold
  score for every headline (930 of the first 1,546 DeepSeek rows had none);
  an existing newsdata.db gains the column in place on first open
- headlines naming no tracked currency are scored and archived
  (currencies_json []) but never returned to the platform
- _apply_llm_sentiment sends every new headline in its cycle, 25 per call;
  a failed call ends the cycle's sending

Dashboard publisher never writes a database: main() calls
app_config.set_db_writes_for_process(False), honoured by signal_log_enabled()
and news_archive_enabled() (owner decision: the bot is the single writer).

Test suite: the hermetic app config now points both writers at a
suite-private temp dir — the RSS fixture tests were writing fixture
headlines into the real logs/newsdata.db — with a Module 32 test pinning it.
529 tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

signal_log.py

@@ -152,7 +152,12 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS signals (
     panel_payload_hash TEXT,
     advisory_outcome_status TEXT,
     advisory_r_multiple REAL,
-    advisory_outcome_json TEXT
+    advisory_outcome_json TEXT,
+    panel_prompt_version TEXT,
+    panel_probability REAL,
+    panel_probs_json TEXT,
+    panel_payloads_json TEXT,
+    panel_context_json TEXT
 );
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_signals_sym_tf_ts
     ON signals (symbol, timeframe, logged_at);
@@ -225,6 +230,16 @@ _ADDITIVE_SIGNAL_COLS = (
     ("watch_level", "TEXT"),
     ("watch_kinds", "TEXT"),
     ("watch_line", "TEXT"),
+    # 2026-09-17 agent-panel v2 (see agent_panel.py): prompt era, the mean
+    # persona probability, per-persona probabilities + reasons, the exact
+    # per-persona payloads and the shared context — written post-hoc by
+    # update_panel so scripts/panel_replay.py can re-score any prompt
+    # version on the same evidence.
+    ("panel_prompt_version", "TEXT"),
+    ("panel_probability", "REAL"),
+    ("panel_probs_json", "TEXT"),
+    ("panel_payloads_json", "TEXT"),
+    ("panel_context_json", "TEXT"),
 )
 
 # Read-side compatibility view `signals_with_news`: legacy rows keep
@@ -1025,6 +1040,11 @@ class SignalLogger:
         cache_status: Optional[str] = None,
         payload_hash: Optional[str] = None,
         verdict_source: Optional[str] = None,
+        prompt_version: Optional[str] = None,
+        probability: Optional[float] = None,
+        probs_json: Optional[str] = None,
+        payloads_json: Optional[str] = None,
+        context_json: Optional[str] = None,
     ) -> None:
         """Fill panel provenance; seeds an outcome only for rows that
         log() did not already seed (rows written by an older process)."""
@@ -1051,11 +1071,18 @@ class SignalLogger:
                 " panel_cache_status=COALESCE(?, panel_cache_status),"
                 " panel_payload_hash=COALESCE(?, panel_payload_hash),"
                 " panel_verdict_source=COALESCE(?, panel_verdict_source),"
+                " panel_prompt_version=COALESCE(?, panel_prompt_version),"
+                " panel_probability=COALESCE(?, panel_probability),"
+                " panel_probs_json=COALESCE(?, panel_probs_json),"
+                " panel_payloads_json=COALESCE(?, panel_payloads_json),"
+                " panel_context_json=COALESCE(?, panel_context_json),"
                 " advisory_outcome_status=COALESCE(advisory_outcome_status, ?),"
                 " advisory_outcome_json=COALESCE(advisory_outcome_json, ?)"
                 " WHERE id=?",
                 (verdict, confidence, rationale, takes_json,
                  created_at, cache_status, payload_hash, verdict_source,
+                 prompt_version, probability, probs_json, payloads_json,
+                 context_json,
                  advisory_status, advisory_json, rowid))
             self._conn.commit()
 
@@ -1592,15 +1619,30 @@ def log_panel_update(report: Any) -> None:
             lg = _loggers.get(path)
         if lg is None:
             return
+        takes = getattr(report, "panel_takes", None) or []
+        probs = [{"persona": t.get("persona"), "p_win": _finite(t.get("p_win")),
+                  "stance": t.get("stance"),
+                  "confidence": _finite(t.get("confidence")),
+                  "reason_for": t.get("reason_for") or "",
+                  "reason_against": t.get("reason_against") or ""}
+                 for t in takes if isinstance(t, dict)]
+        payloads = getattr(report, "panel_payloads", None) or {}
+        context = getattr(report, "panel_context", None) or {}
+        probability = _finite(getattr(report, "panel_probability", None))
         lg.update_panel(
             int(rowid), verdict,
             _finite(getattr(report, "panel_confidence", None)),
             getattr(report, "panel_rationale", "") or "",
-            _dumps(getattr(report, "panel_takes", None) or []),
+            _dumps(takes),
             created_at=getattr(report, "panel_created_at", "") or None,
             cache_status=getattr(report, "panel_cache_status", "") or None,
             payload_hash=getattr(report, "panel_payload_hash", "") or None,
-            verdict_source=getattr(report, "panel_verdict_source", "") or None)
+            verdict_source=getattr(report, "panel_verdict_source", "") or None,
+            prompt_version=getattr(report, "panel_prompt_version", "") or None,
+            probability=probability if probability else None,
+            probs_json=_dumps(probs) if probs else None,
+            payloads_json=_dumps(payloads) if payloads else None,
+            context_json=_dumps(context) if context else None)
     except Exception:
         logger.warning("signal_log: failed to persist panel verdict",
                        exc_info=True)