xauusd M15: halve the RSI regime multiplier in every regime (M15 override 5, rule-1 validated)

Owner-approved 2026-09-09 after the pre-registered weight test
(backtest/research/weight_test_2026-09-09.md). M15-only
technical.regime_weights_override = the shipped table with rsi x 0.5
(0.5 trending family / 0.75 ranging / 0.5 transitioning), derived in the
factory and pinned literally by the Module 9 equivalence test; a Module 33
test locks that M5/H1/H4 carry no override.

Evidence, 2-year Oanda window 2024-09-05..2026-09-05 at $0.65: 793/+117.62R
PF 1.41 -> 931/+146.14R PF 1.43 (fixed halves +27.9/+0.6R vs control); OOS
2024-06-01..2025-03-30 300/+40.59R PF 1.38 -> 355/+60.67R PF 1.49; 3-year
+151.90R -> +186.61R (max DD 15.5 -> 19.3R, 2026 -4R). Parity: the factory
run with no --set flag reproduces the validated candidate books byte-for-
byte (2-yr MD5 d185f099..., OOS 6f8f24b4...). M15 canonical book re-pinned
to backtest/oanda_m15_2yr_065_20260909.csv. Docs carry a one-line note.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Nc9Ninzyi18QkWezrxeBvB

docs/user_guide.html

@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@
 </table>
 <ul>
 <li><b>M5 — intraday, execution-critical.</b> Highest total edge, but stops are tight: a couple of dollars of slippage or a late entry eats a meaningful share of every trade. Suitable only if you can act within a minute or two of the alert (or automate). Trades open and close within a session; you sleep flat. SELL signals are held back while the market regime reads "transitioning" — a validated filter, not a bug if you notice fewer shorts there.</li>
-<li><b>M15 — the middle path.</b> Same frequency as M5, wider stops, up to 15 minutes to act. About half your trades will still be open overnight.</li>
+<li><b>M15 — the middle path.</b> Same frequency as M5, wider stops, up to 15 minutes to act. About half your trades will still be open overnight. Since 2026-09-09 the M15 scoring gives its RSI reading half the weight it used to (RSI mostly voted against the trend on this timeframe), so expect roughly 9 signals a week instead of 7–8; in the two-year test (Sep 2024 – Sep 2026) that change lifted M15 from +117.6R to +146.1R with the same win rate and a slightly better profit factor, and it also improved the separate out-of-sample period. The M15 column above predates it.</li>
 <li><b>H1 — swing trading around a normal life.</b> Best quality per trade and very forgiving of slow manual execution (you have up to an hour). The costs: positions held for days, through news and overnight sessions, and a <b>lumpy</b> equity curve — one quarter of the test year was negative and most of the profit came in a single quarter. Judge it on quarters, not weeks. H1 no longer issues SELL signals at all (blocked since 2026-09-03) — it is BUY-only on this timeframe.</li>
 </ul>
 <div class="callout"><b>If you trade manually from the Telegram alerts, H1 (or M15) is the honest choice.</b> M5's backtested edge assumes near-instant fills that a human copying signals rarely achieves.</div>