Daily-trend veto on M15 + lot-size / already-open lines (campaign 2026-09-30), and the 2026-10-01 whole-codebase bug review

Two bodies of work that touch the same files, so one commit.

Direction and setup-size campaign (2026-09-30 → 10-01, owner's RISK-FIRST rule,
written before the runs):
- SIGNAL: M15 daily-trend veto (factory override 7, xau_strategy.daily_trend_veto
  "both"). A finished setup against a clear daily trend (closed D1 bars, Sunday
  stubs dropped; close vs its 50-bar EMA AND vs the close 60 kept days earlier)
  is removed as the last step of the core. One definition
  (signal_aggregator.daily_trend_series) for live, the bar replay and the twin's
  host side; D1 is a required frame of the M15 scan; mirrored in
  cuda_signal_kernels.py K2. W3 824 / +205.12R / PF 1.73 / max DD 12.4R vs
  1105 / +195.79R / 1.49 / 20.9R; 2019 → 2026 1473 / +223.33R / 1.42 / 41.5R vs
  2091 / +192.53R / 1.24 / 64.8R; unseen holdout −4.62R vs −6.63R.
- FAILED, not shipped: the veto on M5 (W3 drawdown 10.1R → 15.2R) and on H1
  (−9.7R), buy-only and sell-only on M15, the wide-stop cap
  (xau_strategy.wide_stop_cap_atr stays 0.0, a research knob).
- New M15 pins: W2 dfc647ee…, OOS e87b6de1…, W3 ad3b0dbd…. M5 / H1 / H4 pins
  unchanged. --set xau_strategy.daily_trend_veto=off reproduces the previous M15
  pins byte for byte. Twin and reference script MD5-equal on every window;
  recorder and feature-export parity re-proved; base-rate table rebuilt.
- DISPLAY (books byte-identical): exposure.py — the lot size for
  trade_size.risk_per_trade (new config.json block, off by default, private to
  the owner) and the count of alerted same-direction plans still open
  (signals.alerted_at, read-only open_alerted_setups); the daily trend in words
  on Telegram, the CLI and the dashboard; signals.daily_trend logged.
- providers/oanda: a date window with no bars is an empty page, not an error
  (a D1 pad starting on a Saturday could not be fetched).
- Reports only, nothing shipped: seven context screens (no state nominated) and
  eight outside data sources (none adds a forecast to gold's own daily trend).
- Independent verification (report section 5.13): every figure reproduced on
  both scripts, scoring identical to the previous commit on all four
  timeframes, no look-ahead. Caveats recorded there: this is a risk filter, not
  a more accurate direction call; nine tenths of the 2019 → 2026 gain is 2022;
  the neighbour clause is thin (a simple 100-day average misses the R line by
  1.2R); "never adds a trade" is an observation, not a guarantee.

Bug review of the whole codebase (2026-10-01). Signal path clean. 17 defects
elsewhere, plus 4 found by an independent review of the fixes; all fixed, each
with a test; no trade book changed:
- telegram_bot: one _deliver_alert for the candle scan and the level break. The
  row is stamped alerted_at BEFORE the send, on a one-worker alert-db pool, and
  un-stamped when no chat received it or the task is cancelled mid-stamp, so
  two alerts at one candle close count each other and no SQLite write runs on
  the event loop. The 5-bar cooldown counts bars of the scan's own frame
  (== gpu_backtest._apply_cooldown; clock time released the 22:00 UTC bar after
  the settlement pause) and is restored from signals.db at start-up. The
  lot-size line goes to the owner's own chat only (a group the owner ran
  /autoscan in used to receive it). /status gains a news-model line and escapes
  failure details.
- signal_log: mark_alerted returns the stamp it wrote; unmark_alerted;
  last_alerted_bars (read-only).
- advisory_outcome: candle continuity is judged bar by bar inside the walk; a
  hole after a trade's exit no longer voids it. The stored-candle replay
  resolves 108 of 111 logged setups instead of 99, all equal to the live
  resolver's R.
- providers/oanda: an empty date window is accepted only when it is 5 days or
  shorter and no malformed candle was skipped; a longer one is retried, then
  refused, instead of being cached as history with a hole.
- news_engine: blank RSS titles skipped; one unreadable headline no longer
  costs the local model its whole batch (checked on the real bundle); model
  health recorded; no DeepSeek audit call in a process that does not archive;
  event-direction cache keyed per release; peek_week_events never fetches.
- llm_client: chat_json never raises and never logs the API key (requests
  quotes the Authorization value in InvalidHeader; error bodies are redacted).
- signal_aggregator: the scan's news block is guarded; the replay path
  (use_news=False) assigns exactly the values it did before.
- agent_panel: PANEL_PROMPT_VERSION v2.2 — same prompt text, corrected input
  (event timing over the cached calendar week, headlines newest first).
  scripts/panel_replay.py replays the logged payload per persona;
  scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py counts with an ISO cutoff.
- test_all.py: no ALTER TABLE … DROP COLUMN (the live box has SQLite 3.34);
  tests that write Parquet print a notice and return without pyarrow.

Verification after the last code change: suite 632 passed, 0 failed (also with
both Parquet engines blocked and FB2_BACKEND=cpu, the live box's view); the
five reference MD5s reproduce on both backtesters, 0 cache fallbacks; Module 37
green; static Python 3.9 / SQLite 3.34 check clean on every touched file.

Evidence: backtest/research/daily_trend_campaign_2026-09-30.md,
context_screens_2026-10.md, new_inputs_2026-10.md; CLAUDE.md sections 2, 4, 6,
8, 9, 10 and 11; pair_signals/xauusd.py docstring (M15 override 7).

docs/beginner_guide.html

@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@
 <body>
 
 <h1>ForexBot2 — Beginner's Guide</h1>
-<div class="subtitle">Everything explained in plain words. No experience needed. &nbsp;·&nbsp; July 2026</div>
+<div class="subtitle">Everything explained in plain words. No experience needed. &nbsp;·&nbsp; updated October 2026</div>
 
 <h2>1 · What is this bot?</h2>
 <p>ForexBot2 is a computer program that watches the <b>price of gold</b> all day and all night. It studies the price charts using nine different mathematical checks. When the checks agree that the price is likely to move in one direction, it sends you a message on <b>Telegram</b> telling you:</p>
@@ -74,12 +74,17 @@
 🟢 Grade A · BUY · XAU/USD · H1  🥇       ← how good the setup is + what to do
 📐 Direction: strong buy · Reliability:
    good · timeframes agree                ← the bot's two numbers, in words
+🧭 Daily trend: rising — this buy
+   goes with it                           ← which way gold has been heading for weeks
 📋 Indicators …                           ← the bot's 9 checks (you can skip this part)
 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
 🚀 TRADE SETUP                            ← ↓ THIS is the part you act on ↓
 📈 Direction: BUY
 ▶ Entry:  4,132.50                        ← open the trade near this price
 🛑 SL:     4,088.20                        ← your safety brake (stop loss)
+🧱 Already open: 1 buy plan alerted
+   earlier (H1) — taking this one adds
+   to the same position                   ← you may already be in this move
 🔄 Exit rule (tested): once price reaches
    4,159.08 (+0.6R), trail the SL $33.23
    behind the best price, moved at
@@ -91,6 +96,8 @@
 <ul>
 <li><b>Grade (A+, A, B, C):</b> the bot's own mark for how clean the setup is. A+ is best. It never sends anything worse than C.</li>
 <li><b>Direction and reliability:</b> plain words for the bot's two internal numbers. Direction says how strongly the checks lean one way (very strong, strong, clear, weak). Reliability says how much the bot trusts that reading (high, good, fair, low). "Timeframes agree" means the bigger and smaller charts point the same way.</li>
+<li><b>🧭 Daily trend:</b> which way the gold price has been heading over the last weeks, read from the daily chart: rising, falling, or no clear direction. A trade that goes the same way as the daily trend is swimming with the tide. On the 15-minute signals the bot no longer sends a trade that goes against a clear daily trend at all, because years of tests showed those trades earned nothing. On the other signals the line is simply something to know.</li>
+<li><b>🧱 Already open:</b> appears when the bot has already sent buy (or sell) plans that are still running. A new signal in the same direction is usually the same gold move seen again. The new signal is not a worse one, but if you took the earlier one, taking this one too means you are risking more on a single move. As a beginner, skip it, or split your usual risk between the two.</li>
 <li><b>The indicator list:</b> extra detail for curious people. You don't need to understand it to trade the signal.</li>
 <li><b>⚠️ Warning lines:</b> things the bot noticed, like high volatility. They are "be aware," not "don't trade."</li>
 <li><b>🌪 Violent-move watch:</b> now and then the bot adds a line saying the next hour could produce very big candles — usually because an important American economic number is about to come out, or the market is in an hour that is historically wild, or the price has stretched a long way from normal. It is only a "hold on tight" note. It does not change the signal, and it is not a reason to close or move your stop loss early — the bot was tested doing exactly that and it lost money. Your stop loss is already your protection; leave it where it is.</li>
@@ -106,7 +113,7 @@ Your account: <b>$2,000</b>. Your risk: 1% = <b>$20</b>. So for this trade, 1R =
 The signal says: Entry 4,132.50, Stop loss 4,088.20. The gap between them is <b>$44.30 per ounce</b> of gold.<br>
 How much gold to buy: $20 ÷ $44.30 = <b>0.45 ounces</b>.<br>
 Now, whatever happens: if the price falls to the stop loss, you lose about $20 — and no more. If the trade wins 2R, you make about $40.</div>
-<p class="small">Most broker apps have a built-in calculator: enter the stop-loss price and the amount you want to risk ($20), and it works out the position size for you. Use it — it avoids mistakes. (On many platforms gold is traded in "lots," where 0.01 lot = 1 ounce.)</p>
+<p class="small">Most broker apps have a built-in calculator: enter the stop-loss price and the amount you want to risk ($20), and it works out the position size for you. Use it — it avoids mistakes. (On many platforms gold is traded in "lots," where 0.01 lot = 1 ounce.) The bot's owner can also switch on a <b>📏 Size</b> line that does this sum for their own risk limit; it is shown only in the owner's private chat, so if you do not see it, use the calculator.</p>
 
 <h2>5 · What to do when a signal arrives — step by step</h2>
 <ol>
@@ -135,7 +142,7 @@ The message says: <i>"once price hits 4,159, trail SL $33 behind best price."</i
 <p>The bot sends signals from several chart speeds. As a beginner, <b>follow only the 1-hour (H1) signals</b> and ignore the others. Here is why:</p>
 <table>
 <tr><th></th><th>M5 (5-minute)</th><th>M15 (15-minute)</th><th>H1 (1-hour) ★ start here</th></tr>
-<tr><td>Signals per week</td><td>about 10</td><td>about 10</td><td>about 3</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Signals per week</td><td>about 10</td><td>about 5</td><td>about 2</td></tr>
 <tr><td>A trade usually lasts</td><td>a few hours</td><td>about half a day</td><td>half a day to a few days</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Time you have to react</td><td>1–2 minutes</td><td>up to 15 minutes</td><td>up to an hour</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Suits</td><td>full-time / automated</td><td>experienced, quick</td><td>anyone with a job and a life</td></tr>
@@ -146,6 +153,7 @@ The message says: <i>"once price hits 4,159, trail SL $33 behind best price."</i
 <li><b>H1 is BUY-only.</b> All H1 SELL signals are blocked (since 2026-09-03) because they were a losing side on this timeframe — expect to see BUY signals here, never SELL.</li>
 <li><b>M5 also holds back some SELL signals</b> — specifically while the market is in a choppy "transitioning" phase, since those shorts tested poorly.</li>
 <li><b>M15 got a small tune-up on 2026-09-09</b> — one of its nine indicators (RSI) now counts for half as much, which means a few more M15 signals per week. Nothing changes in how you act on a signal.</li>
+<li><b>M15 now respects the daily trend (since 2026-09-30).</b> A 15-minute trade that goes against a clear daily trend is no longer sent. That removes about one signal in four, the ones that made no money in the tests, and makes the bad stretches shorter. Nothing changes in how you act on the signals you do receive.</li>
 <li><b>Never take the same signal on two timeframes.</b> They are usually the same gold move seen at different zoom levels. Taking both doubles your risk, not your profit.</li>
 </ul>