xauusd factory: block M5 shorts in transitioning regime, block all H1 shorts (rule-1 validated)

M5 sell_blocked_regimes=[transitioning]: 12mo +7.9R (PF 1.50->1.56, both halves up),
5yr +5.3R, OOS unchanged. H1 sell_min_quality=[]: 5yr +16.7R (PF 1.18->1.46),
OOS +11.5R (PF 1.13->1.74), 12mo -1.8R with both halves positive.
Campaign table, rejected and parked candidates: backtest/research/signal_log_campaign_2026-09.md

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01FC4s6VCURFte4dub4xKxYL

docs/beginner_guide.html

@@ -134,6 +134,8 @@ The message says: <i>"once price hits 4,159, trail SL $33 behind best price."</i
 <ul>
 <li><b>H1 is forgiving.</b> You have up to an hour to act on a message, and small delays barely matter. On the 5-minute signals, being two minutes late already costs real money — they are not for manual beginners.</li>
 <li><b>H1 trades are held longer</b> — often overnight, sometimes over days. That is normal. Your stop loss is working for you while you sleep.</li>
+<li><b>H1 is BUY-only.</b> All H1 SELL signals are blocked (since 2026-09-03) because they were a losing side on this timeframe — expect to see BUY signals here, never SELL.</li>
+<li><b>M5 also holds back some SELL signals</b> — specifically while the market is in a choppy "transitioning" phase, since those shorts tested poorly.</li>
 <li><b>Never take the same signal on two timeframes.</b> They are usually the same gold move seen at different zoom levels. Taking both doubles your risk, not your profit.</li>
 </ul>
 

docs/user_guide.html

@@ -96,9 +96,9 @@
 <tr><td>Worst drawdown</td><td>10.7R</td><td>10.8R</td><td>8.0R</td></tr>
 </table>
 <ul>
-<li><b>M5 — intraday, execution-critical.</b> Highest total edge, but stops are tight: a couple of dollars of slippage or a late entry eats a meaningful share of every trade. Suitable only if you can act within a minute or two of the alert (or automate). Trades open and close within a session; you sleep flat.</li>
+<li><b>M5 — intraday, execution-critical.</b> Highest total edge, but stops are tight: a couple of dollars of slippage or a late entry eats a meaningful share of every trade. Suitable only if you can act within a minute or two of the alert (or automate). Trades open and close within a session; you sleep flat. SELL signals are held back while the market regime reads "transitioning" — a validated filter, not a bug if you notice fewer shorts there.</li>
 <li><b>M15 — the middle path.</b> Same frequency as M5, wider stops, up to 15 minutes to act. About half your trades will still be open overnight.</li>
-<li><b>H1 — swing trading around a normal life.</b> Best quality per trade and very forgiving of slow manual execution (you have up to an hour). The costs: positions held for days, through news and overnight sessions, and a <b>lumpy</b> equity curve — one quarter of the test year was negative and most of the profit came in a single quarter. Judge it on quarters, not weeks.</li>
+<li><b>H1 — swing trading around a normal life.</b> Best quality per trade and very forgiving of slow manual execution (you have up to an hour). The costs: positions held for days, through news and overnight sessions, and a <b>lumpy</b> equity curve — one quarter of the test year was negative and most of the profit came in a single quarter. Judge it on quarters, not weeks. H1 no longer issues SELL signals at all (blocked since 2026-09-03) — it is BUY-only on this timeframe.</li>
 </ul>
 <div class="callout"><b>If you trade manually from the Telegram alerts, H1 (or M15) is the honest choice.</b> M5's backtested edge assumes near-instant fills that a human copying signals rarely achieves.</div>