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walkforward: 2019→2026 OOS exam, 4 TFs @ $0.65 — books + manifest

Browse Source 
26 rolling folds per TF (train 12mo / test 3mo / step 3mo) over
2019-01-01→2026-08-07 on fresh Oanda history (5 parquets, sha256s in
manifest). Aggregated OOS: M5 +126.5R PF 1.35 (11/26 folds flagged),
M15 +139.2R PF 1.18 (9/26), H1 +33.3R PF 1.15 (13/26), H4 +33.3R
PF 1.52 (9/26). Flagged folds cluster 2020H2–2023; 2023-10+ nearly
uniformly positive — corroborates the "earns mainly 2024+" re-pin
finding. Robustness read only: NOT a new baseline, nothing tuned.

Runs captured at 1c264d5 + the walk-forward diff (recorded as
dirty + diff sha256 in manifest.json); compare_baseline passed 32/32
immediately before the runs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017FBjfomAipxvPWwRJEDDyJ
This commit is contained in:
Harwinder Sekhon
2026-08-07 18:21:47 -04:00
parent b357ab1e87
commit 68dc76a5f1
18 changed files with 14074 additions and 0 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
walkforward/1c264d5/h4_s065/equity.csv
+218
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,218 @@
trade_n,entry_time,exit_time,quality,strategy,r_multiple,cum_r,high_water,drawdown_r
1,2019-01-31 12:00:00+00:00,2019-02-07 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.035150,-1.035150,0.000000,-1.035150
2,2019-02-18 12:00:00+00:00,2019-02-21 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.257914,-0.777236,0.000000,-0.777236
3,2019-02-19 08:00:00+00:00,2019-02-21 12:00:00+00:00,C,GENERIC,0.191338,-0.585898,0.000000,-0.585898
4,2019-03-01 08:00:00+00:00,2019-03-08 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.457117,-0.128780,0.000000,-0.128780
5,2019-03-04 12:00:00+00:00,2019-05-10 20:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-0.008142,-0.136922,0.000000,-0.136922
6,2019-03-21 08:00:00+00:00,2019-03-28 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.026072,-1.162994,0.000000,-1.162994
7,2019-05-31 12:00:00+00:00,2019-06-05 16:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,1.501216,0.338222,0.338222,0.000000
8,2019-06-03 08:00:00+00:00,2019-06-21 04:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.752062,2.090284,2.090284,0.000000
9,2019-06-05 08:00:00+00:00,2019-06-09 20:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.011777,2.102061,2.102061,0.000000
10,2019-06-14 08:00:00+00:00,2019-06-21 04:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.131692,3.233753,3.233753,0.000000
11,2019-06-20 08:00:00+00:00,2019-06-26 08:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.415106,3.648859,3.648859,0.000000
12,2019-06-21 12:00:00+00:00,2019-06-30 20:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-0.072220,3.576638,3.648859,-0.072220
13,2019-06-28 12:00:00+00:00,2019-06-30 20:00:00+00:00,C,GENERIC,-1.031718,2.544920,3.648859,-1.103938
14,2019-07-03 08:00:00+00:00,2019-07-05 12:00:00+00:00,A+,GENERIC,-1.032366,1.512555,3.648859,-2.136304
15,2019-07-11 08:00:00+00:00,2019-07-11 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.037211,0.475344,3.648859,-3.173515
16,2019-08-02 08:00:00+00:00,2019-08-06 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.118884,1.594228,3.648859,-2.054631
17,2019-08-05 12:00:00+00:00,2019-08-13 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.631472,2.225700,3.648859,-1.423159
18,2019-08-07 12:00:00+00:00,2019-08-07 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.004027,2.229727,3.648859,-1.419132
19,2019-08-13 08:00:00+00:00,2019-08-13 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.014385,1.215342,3.648859,-2.433517
20,2019-08-26 12:00:00+00:00,2019-09-05 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.000890,1.216233,3.648859,-2.432626
21,2019-08-28 12:00:00+00:00,2019-08-30 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.023311,0.192921,3.648859,-3.455938
22,2019-09-06 08:00:00+00:00,2019-09-10 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.433586,0.626507,3.648859,-3.022352
23,2019-09-30 12:00:00+00:00,2019-10-01 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.159610,0.786116,3.648859,-2.862743
24,2019-10-01 08:00:00+00:00,2019-12-06 20:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.008177,0.794294,3.648859,-2.854565
25,2019-10-25 08:00:00+00:00,2019-10-29 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.027977,-0.233683,3.648859,-3.882542
26,2019-11-08 12:00:00+00:00,2019-12-26 00:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.016939,-1.250622,3.648859,-4.899481
27,2019-12-04 08:00:00+00:00,2020-01-06 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,2.947735,1.697113,3.648859,-1.951746
28,2020-01-03 08:00:00+00:00,2020-01-06 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.459857,2.156970,3.648859,-1.491889
29,2020-01-06 08:00:00+00:00,2020-02-25 04:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.847152,3.004121,3.648859,-0.644737
30,2020-01-27 12:00:00+00:00,2020-02-04 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.018656,1.985466,3.648859,-1.663393
31,2020-02-19 08:00:00+00:00,2020-02-24 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.999358,3.984824,3.984824,0.000000
32,2020-02-20 12:00:00+00:00,2020-02-24 16:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.856052,4.840875,4.840875,0.000000
33,2020-02-21 08:00:00+00:00,2020-02-25 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.161529,5.002404,5.002404,0.000000
34,2020-02-24 08:00:00+00:00,2020-02-24 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.108743,5.111147,5.111147,0.000000
35,2020-03-04 12:00:00+00:00,2020-03-06 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.607126,5.718273,5.718273,0.000000
36,2020-03-06 12:00:00+00:00,2020-03-06 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.023952,4.694321,5.718273,-1.023952
37,2020-03-17 12:00:00+00:00,2020-03-17 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.010854,3.683467,5.718273,-2.034806
38,2020-03-24 12:00:00+00:00,2020-06-01 16:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,1.123163,4.806630,5.718273,-0.911643
39,2020-04-07 12:00:00+00:00,2020-04-16 16:00:00+00:00,C,GENERIC,1.032232,5.838862,5.838862,0.000000
40,2020-04-13 08:00:00+00:00,2020-04-14 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.411456,7.250318,7.250318,0.000000
41,2020-04-14 08:00:00+00:00,2020-06-19 16:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.214100,7.464418,7.464418,0.000000
42,2020-04-23 12:00:00+00:00,2020-04-28 04:00:00+00:00,C,GENERIC,-1.019072,6.445345,7.464418,-1.019072
43,2020-05-15 08:00:00+00:00,2020-05-18 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-0.161003,6.284342,7.464418,-1.180076
44,2020-05-18 08:00:00+00:00,2020-05-18 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.034026,5.250316,7.464418,-2.214102
45,2020-06-24 12:00:00+00:00,2020-07-28 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,4.144817,9.395133,9.395133,0.000000
46,2020-07-21 08:00:00+00:00,2020-07-22 08:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.214557,10.609690,10.609690,0.000000
47,2020-07-22 08:00:00+00:00,2020-07-28 04:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,1.501215,12.110904,12.110904,0.000000
48,2020-07-27 08:00:00+00:00,2020-07-28 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.664695,12.775599,12.775599,0.000000
49,2020-08-05 08:00:00+00:00,2020-08-05 16:00:00+00:00,A+,GENERIC,-0.075002,12.700597,12.775599,-0.075002
50,2020-08-06 12:00:00+00:00,2020-08-11 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.006021,11.694576,12.775599,-1.081023
51,2020-08-07 08:00:00+00:00,2020-08-11 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.005739,10.688836,12.775599,-2.086763
52,2020-08-11 12:00:00+00:00,2020-08-12 04:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,2.474187,13.163024,13.163024,0.000000
53,2020-08-18 08:00:00+00:00,2020-08-19 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.017625,12.145398,13.163024,-1.017625
54,2020-08-20 08:00:00+00:00,2020-08-26 16:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-0.156926,11.988472,13.163024,-1.174551
55,2020-08-28 12:00:00+00:00,2020-09-01 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.112717,12.101189,13.163024,-1.061834
56,2020-09-01 08:00:00+00:00,2020-09-01 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.022866,11.078323,13.163024,-2.084701
57,2020-09-22 08:00:00+00:00,2020-09-23 08:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.195281,11.273604,13.163024,-1.889420
58,2020-09-23 08:00:00+00:00,2020-11-30 16:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,1.006469,12.280073,13.163024,-0.882950
59,2020-09-24 12:00:00+00:00,2020-12-01 20:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.399815,12.679888,13.163024,-0.483136
60,2020-11-06 12:00:00+00:00,2020-11-09 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.027650,11.652238,13.163024,-1.510786
61,2020-11-24 12:00:00+00:00,2020-11-30 04:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.240438,12.892676,13.163024,-0.270348
62,2020-12-31 08:00:00+00:00,2021-01-06 04:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,2.592074,15.484750,15.484750,0.000000
63,2021-01-04 08:00:00+00:00,2021-01-08 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.011181,14.473569,15.484750,-1.011181
64,2021-02-26 08:00:00+00:00,2021-02-26 20:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.009117,15.482686,15.484750,-0.002064
65,2021-04-16 12:00:00+00:00,2021-06-03 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.788505,17.271190,17.271190,0.000000
66,2021-05-26 08:00:00+00:00,2021-06-03 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.015174,16.256017,17.271190,-1.015174
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68,2021-06-17 08:00:00+00:00,2021-06-18 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.143726,16.358901,17.271190,-0.912289
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70,2021-07-07 08:00:00+00:00,2021-07-16 08:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.465923,16.712735,17.271190,-0.558455
71,2021-07-15 08:00:00+00:00,2021-07-23 08:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.016380,15.696355,17.271190,-1.574835
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74,2021-10-13 12:00:00+00:00,2021-10-15 08:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.180086,13.862033,17.271190,-3.409158
75,2021-10-22 12:00:00+00:00,2021-10-22 16:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-0.313318,13.548715,17.271190,-3.722475
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77,2021-11-23 12:00:00+00:00,2021-11-25 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-0.040709,13.613386,17.271190,-3.657804
78,2022-02-17 12:00:00+00:00,2022-02-18 08:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.250000,13.863386,17.271190,-3.407804
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93,2022-09-01 12:00:00+00:00,2022-09-28 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.928001,14.226050,17.271190,-3.045140
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98,2022-12-02 08:00:00+00:00,2023-01-31 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,1.526755,15.076830,17.271190,-2.194361
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100,2023-01-03 08:00:00+00:00,2023-01-18 04:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,1.134935,16.234038,17.271190,-1.037153
101,2023-01-04 08:00:00+00:00,2023-01-05 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.031910,15.202128,17.271190,-2.069062
102,2023-01-09 08:00:00+00:00,2023-01-31 08:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.479911,15.682039,17.271190,-1.589151
103,2023-01-13 08:00:00+00:00,2023-01-18 00:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.001353,15.683393,17.271190,-1.587798
104,2023-01-20 08:00:00+00:00,2023-01-23 12:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.034639,14.648754,17.271190,-2.622437
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112,2023-10-20 08:00:00+00:00,2023-10-20 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.056953,12.435951,17.271190,-4.835240
113,2023-11-15 08:00:00+00:00,2023-11-19 20:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.305634,12.741585,17.271190,-4.529606
114,2023-11-27 08:00:00+00:00,2023-12-04 00:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,3.844193,16.585778,17.271190,-0.685412
115,2023-12-04 12:00:00+00:00,2023-12-05 12:00:00+00:00,C,GENERIC,-1.012303,15.573475,17.271190,-1.697715
116,2023-12-14 08:00:00+00:00,2023-12-14 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-0.086607,15.486869,17.271190,-1.784322
117,2023-12-20 08:00:00+00:00,2023-12-22 16:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,0.455928,15.942797,17.271190,-1.328394
118,2023-12-22 08:00:00+00:00,2023-12-28 20:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,0.497412,16.440209,17.271190,-0.830982
119,2023-12-26 08:00:00+00:00,2024-01-08 08:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.014548,15.425661,17.271190,-1.845530
120,2023-12-27 12:00:00+00:00,2024-01-08 08:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,-1.013580,14.412081,17.271190,-2.859109
121,2023-12-28 08:00:00+00:00,2024-01-03 08:00:00+00:00,A,GENERIC,-1.020231,13.391850,17.271190,-3.879340
122,2024-03-01 12:00:00+00:00,2024-03-12 12:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,3.325640,16.717490,17.271190,-0.553700
123,2024-03-05 12:00:00+00:00,2024-04-12 16:00:00+00:00,B,GENERIC,2.490718,19.208208,19.208208,0.000000
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1 trade_n entry_time exit_time quality strategy r_multiple cum_r high_water drawdown_r
2 1 2019-01-31 12:00:00+00:00 2019-02-07 00:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC -1.035150 -1.035150 0.000000 -1.035150
3 2 2019-02-18 12:00:00+00:00 2019-02-21 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.257914 -0.777236 0.000000 -0.777236
4 3 2019-02-19 08:00:00+00:00 2019-02-21 12:00:00+00:00 C GENERIC 0.191338 -0.585898 0.000000 -0.585898
5 4 2019-03-01 08:00:00+00:00 2019-03-08 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.457117 -0.128780 0.000000 -0.128780
6 5 2019-03-04 12:00:00+00:00 2019-05-10 20:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC -0.008142 -0.136922 0.000000 -0.136922
7 6 2019-03-21 08:00:00+00:00 2019-03-28 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC -1.026072 -1.162994 0.000000 -1.162994
8 7 2019-05-31 12:00:00+00:00 2019-06-05 16:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 1.501216 0.338222 0.338222 0.000000
9 8 2019-06-03 08:00:00+00:00 2019-06-21 04:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 1.752062 2.090284 2.090284 0.000000
10 9 2019-06-05 08:00:00+00:00 2019-06-09 20:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 0.011777 2.102061 2.102061 0.000000
11 10 2019-06-14 08:00:00+00:00 2019-06-21 04:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 1.131692 3.233753 3.233753 0.000000
12 11 2019-06-20 08:00:00+00:00 2019-06-26 08:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.415106 3.648859 3.648859 0.000000
13 12 2019-06-21 12:00:00+00:00 2019-06-30 20:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC -0.072220 3.576638 3.648859 -0.072220
14 13 2019-06-28 12:00:00+00:00 2019-06-30 20:00:00+00:00 C GENERIC -1.031718 2.544920 3.648859 -1.103938
15 14 2019-07-03 08:00:00+00:00 2019-07-05 12:00:00+00:00 A+ GENERIC -1.032366 1.512555 3.648859 -2.136304
16 15 2019-07-11 08:00:00+00:00 2019-07-11 16:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC -1.037211 0.475344 3.648859 -3.173515
17 16 2019-08-02 08:00:00+00:00 2019-08-06 00:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 1.118884 1.594228 3.648859 -2.054631
18 17 2019-08-05 12:00:00+00:00 2019-08-13 12:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 0.631472 2.225700 3.648859 -1.423159
19 18 2019-08-07 12:00:00+00:00 2019-08-07 16:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.004027 2.229727 3.648859 -1.419132
20 19 2019-08-13 08:00:00+00:00 2019-08-13 12:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC -1.014385 1.215342 3.648859 -2.433517
21 20 2019-08-26 12:00:00+00:00 2019-09-05 12:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 0.000890 1.216233 3.648859 -2.432626
22 21 2019-08-28 12:00:00+00:00 2019-08-30 16:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC -1.023311 0.192921 3.648859 -3.455938
23 22 2019-09-06 08:00:00+00:00 2019-09-10 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.433586 0.626507 3.648859 -3.022352
24 23 2019-09-30 12:00:00+00:00 2019-10-01 12:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 0.159610 0.786116 3.648859 -2.862743
25 24 2019-10-01 08:00:00+00:00 2019-12-06 20:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.008177 0.794294 3.648859 -2.854565
26 25 2019-10-25 08:00:00+00:00 2019-10-29 12:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC -1.027977 -0.233683 3.648859 -3.882542
27 26 2019-11-08 12:00:00+00:00 2019-12-26 00:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC -1.016939 -1.250622 3.648859 -4.899481
28 27 2019-12-04 08:00:00+00:00 2020-01-06 00:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 2.947735 1.697113 3.648859 -1.951746
29 28 2020-01-03 08:00:00+00:00 2020-01-06 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.459857 2.156970 3.648859 -1.491889
30 29 2020-01-06 08:00:00+00:00 2020-02-25 04:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 0.847152 3.004121 3.648859 -0.644737
31 30 2020-01-27 12:00:00+00:00 2020-02-04 16:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC -1.018656 1.985466 3.648859 -1.663393
32 31 2020-02-19 08:00:00+00:00 2020-02-24 16:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 1.999358 3.984824 3.984824 0.000000
33 32 2020-02-20 12:00:00+00:00 2020-02-24 16:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 0.856052 4.840875 4.840875 0.000000
34 33 2020-02-21 08:00:00+00:00 2020-02-25 00:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.161529 5.002404 5.002404 0.000000
35 34 2020-02-24 08:00:00+00:00 2020-02-24 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.108743 5.111147 5.111147 0.000000
36 35 2020-03-04 12:00:00+00:00 2020-03-06 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 0.607126 5.718273 5.718273 0.000000
37 36 2020-03-06 12:00:00+00:00 2020-03-06 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC -1.023952 4.694321 5.718273 -1.023952
38 37 2020-03-17 12:00:00+00:00 2020-03-17 12:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC -1.010854 3.683467 5.718273 -2.034806
39 38 2020-03-24 12:00:00+00:00 2020-06-01 16:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 1.123163 4.806630 5.718273 -0.911643
40 39 2020-04-07 12:00:00+00:00 2020-04-16 16:00:00+00:00 C GENERIC 1.032232 5.838862 5.838862 0.000000
41 40 2020-04-13 08:00:00+00:00 2020-04-14 16:00:00+00:00 A GENERIC 1.411456 7.250318 7.250318 0.000000
42 41 2020-04-14 08:00:00+00:00 2020-06-19 16:00:00+00:00 B GENERIC 0.214100 7.464418 7.464418 0.000000
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