Conviction campaign 2026-09-27 (FAILED, research knob kept) + plain-words alert wording

Owner question: can score and confidence be combined into one number that is
easier to understand and for the system to decide on?

Research (pre-registered, nothing ships to the signal path):
- signals.grading_mode: "pair" (default, the shipped two-floor rule, byte-
  identical: all five reference MD5s reproduce on both scripts), "min"
  (min(|score|, 0.6*conf)), "product" (|score|*conf/100); thresholds fixed from
  the control's corner points, no tuning. Helpers _final_signal_and_grade /
  _transitioning_boost / conviction / CONVICTION_THRESHOLDS in signal_aggregator;
  mirrored in K2 (GRADING_MODE_CODES, PF_conv_* packed from the live module);
  twin refuses other values; M15 OOS MD5 equal on both scripts for both modes.
- Verdict: FAILED on M5 and M15. K-MIN moves 43-54 trades for -1.2R / -2.9R
  (clauses a,b,e / a,b,d); K-PROD -29R on M15 (PF 1.29, W3 DD 28.9R), neutral
  on M5. H1/H4 product +11.9R / +17.0R on W3 from extra low-score trades
  (H1 PF 1.98 -> 1.75, DD doubles): hypothesis only.
- Code review (high) before the runs: 6 findings fixed, 1 recorded
  (engine_config_fingerprint omits the switch under "pair", so live rows keep
  their fingerprint).

Delivery (books untouched): alerts lead with the grade and print the two raw
numbers in words (main.plain_words: "Direction: strong buy · Reliability: good
· timeframes agree", cut-offs = the grade table's own) on Telegram, /status,
the CLI and the dashboard card (plain_words in the snapshot); "MTF" label
replaced by "Other timeframes"; guides updated. Suite 566 passed.

Evidence: backtest/research/conviction_campaign_2026-09-27.md

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

static/dashboard.js

@@ -548,6 +548,7 @@ function cardShell(tf) {
             <span data-f="signal">Warming up</span>
             <span class="grade d-none" data-f="grade"></span>
           </div>
+          <p class="tf-plain d-none" data-f="plain"></p>
           <p class="tf-action" data-f="action"></p>
           <div class="tf-readouts">
             <div>
@@ -670,6 +671,8 @@ function renderCard(tf) {
   f("action").text(entry.status === "error"
     ? "Last good reading. The newest scan failed."
     : actionTail(r.action));
+  // Plain words for the two numbers below (from main.plain_words, same on every surface).
+  f("plain").toggleClass("d-none", !r.plain_words).text(r.plain_words || "");
 
   const score = r.score == null ? 0 : r.score;
   f("score").text(signed(r.score, 1))