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agent_panel: ATR-normalized candle + indicator-value enrichment, hardened prompts, verdict logging

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Harwinder Sekhon
2026-08-15 15:24:28 -04:00
parent 4861cd9771
commit 7b60676a7a
9 changed files with 865 additions and 29 deletions
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backtest/research/panel_payload_drytest_2026-08-15.jsonl
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{"probe": "P1 coherent-bullish", "payload": {"brief": {"pair": "XAU/USD", "timeframe": "15min", "direction": "BUY", "quality": "A", "score": 38.5, "confidence": 62, "price": 2000.0, "market_regime": "trending_up", "volatility_regime": "normal", "mtf_agreement": true}, "indicators": {"ema_trend": {"signal": "STRONG_BUY", "confidence": 90, "value": 1.0}, "rsi": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 65, "value": 58.0}, "macd": {"signal": "STRONG_BUY", "confidence": 80, "value": 1.25}, "bollinger": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 60, "value": 0.7}, "adx": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 70, "value": 32.0}, "roc": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 55, "value": 0.35}, "keltner": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 65, "value": 3.1}, "candlestick": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 60, "value": 2.0}}, "mtf": {"5min": {"signal": "BUY", "score": 30.0}, "1h": {"signal": "STRONG_BUY", "score": 45.0}}, "key_levels": {"resistance": 2012.0, "support": 1985.0}, "exhaustion": 0, "candles": {"15min": {"ref_close": 2000.0, "atr": 5.0, "bars": [[-2.4, -2.2, -2.4, -2.3], [-2.3, -2.1, -2.3, -2.2], [-2.2, -2.0, -2.2, -2.0], [-2.0, -1.9, -2.1, -1.9], [-1.9, -1.8, -2.0, -1.8], [-1.8, -1.6, -1.8, -1.7], [-1.7, -1.5, -1.7, -1.6], [-1.6, -1.4, -1.6, -1.4], [-1.4, -1.3, -1.5, -1.3], [-1.3, -1.2, -1.4, -1.2], [-1.2, -1.0, -1.2, -1.1], [-1.1, -0.9, -1.1, -1.0], [-1.0, -0.8, -1.0, -0.8], [-0.8, -0.7, -0.9, -0.7], [-0.7, -0.6, -0.8, -0.6], [-0.6, -0.4, -0.6, -0.5], [-0.5, -0.3, -0.5, -0.4], [-0.4, -0.2, -0.4, -0.2], [-0.2, -0.1, -0.3, -0.1], [-0.1, 0.0, -0.2, 0.0]]}}}, "raw_reply": {"stance": "support", "confidence": 70, "note": "The trend is up and all signs agree, so buying fits the flow."}}
{"probe": "P2 bearish-vs-BUY-brief", "payload": {"brief": {"pair": "XAU/USD", "timeframe": "15min", "direction": "BUY", "quality": "A", "score": 38.5, "confidence": 62, "price": 2000.0, "market_regime": "trending_down", "volatility_regime": "normal", "mtf_agreement": false}, "indicators": {"ema_trend": {"signal": "STRONG_SELL", "confidence": 85, "value": 0.1}, "rsi": {"signal": "SELL", "confidence": 70, "value": 74.0}, "macd": {"signal": "STRONG_SELL", "confidence": 80, "value": -1.4}, "bollinger": {"signal": "SELL", "confidence": 60, "value": 0.95}, "adx": {"signal": "SELL", "confidence": 70, "value": 35.0}, "roc": {"signal": "SELL", "confidence": 60, "value": -0.5}, "keltner": {"signal": "SELL", "confidence": 65, "value": -2.8}, "candlestick": {"signal": "SELL", "confidence": 55, "value": -2.0}}, "mtf": {"5min": {"signal": "SELL", "score": -28.0}, "1h": {"signal": "STRONG_SELL", "score": -41.0}}, "key_levels": {"resistance": 2012.0, "support": 1985.0}, "exhaustion": 3, "candles": {"15min": {"ref_close": 2000.0, "atr": 5.0, "bars": [[2.4, 2.4, 2.2, 2.3], [2.3, 2.3, 2.1, 2.2], [2.2, 2.2, 2.0, 2.0], [2.0, 2.1, 1.9, 1.9], [1.9, 2.0, 1.8, 1.8], [1.8, 1.8, 1.6, 1.7], [1.7, 1.7, 1.5, 1.6], [1.6, 1.6, 1.4, 1.4], [1.4, 1.5, 1.3, 1.3], [1.3, 1.4, 1.2, 1.2], [1.2, 1.2, 1.0, 1.1], [1.1, 1.1, 0.9, 1.0], [1.0, 1.0, 0.8, 0.8], [0.8, 0.9, 0.7, 0.7], [0.7, 0.8, 0.6, 0.6], [0.6, 0.6, 0.4, 0.5], [0.5, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4], [0.4, 0.4, 0.2, 0.2], [0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1], [0.1, 0.2, -0.0, 0.0]]}}}, "raw_reply": {"stance": "oppose", "confidence": 85, "note": "The price is falling and every indicator says sell, so buying fights the trend."}}
{"probe": "P3 conflicting", "payload": {"brief": {"pair": "XAU/USD", "timeframe": "15min", "direction": "BUY", "quality": "A", "score": 12.0, "confidence": 35, "price": 2000.0, "market_regime": "ranging", "volatility_regime": "normal", "mtf_agreement": false}, "indicators": {"ema_trend": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 55, "value": 0.6}, "rsi": {"signal": "NEUTRAL", "confidence": 40, "value": 51.0}, "macd": {"signal": "SELL", "confidence": 55, "value": -0.3}, "bollinger": {"signal": "NEUTRAL", "confidence": 35, "value": 0.5}, "adx": {"signal": "NEUTRAL", "confidence": 40, "value": 18.0}, "roc": {"signal": "SELL", "confidence": 50, "value": -0.1}, "keltner": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 50, "value": 0.8}, "candlestick": {"signal": "NEUTRAL", "confidence": 30, "value": 0.0}}, "mtf": {"5min": {"signal": "NEUTRAL", "score": 4.0}, "1h": {"signal": "NEUTRAL", "score": -3.0}}, "key_levels": {}, "exhaustion": 0, "candles": {"15min": {"ref_close": 2000.0, "atr": 5.0, "bars": [[0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0], [0.0, 0.4, -0.1, 0.3], [0.3, 0.4, -0.1, 0.0]]}}}, "raw_reply": {"stance": "neutral", "confidence": 30, "note": "Mixed signals with no clear direction, so cannot strongly support or oppose."}}
{"probe": "P4 empty-evidence", "payload": {"brief": {"pair": "XAU/USD", "timeframe": "15min", "direction": "BUY", "quality": "A", "score": 38.5, "confidence": 62, "price": 2000.0, "market_regime": "trending_up", "volatility_regime": "normal", "mtf_agreement": true}, "indicators": {}, "mtf": {}, "key_levels": {}, "exhaustion": 0}, "raw_reply": {"stance": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "note": "Not enough data to judge the trade direction."}}
{"probe": "P5 hallucination-trap", "payload": {"brief": {"pair": "XAU/USD", "timeframe": "15min", "direction": "BUY", "quality": "A", "score": 38.5, "confidence": 62, "price": 2000.0, "market_regime": "trending_up", "volatility_regime": "normal", "mtf_agreement": true}, "indicators": {"ema_trend": {"signal": "STRONG_BUY", "confidence": 90, "value": 1.0}, "rsi": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 65, "value": 58.0}, "macd": {"signal": "STRONG_BUY", "confidence": 80, "value": 1.25}, "bollinger": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 60, "value": 0.7}, "adx": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 70, "value": 32.0}, "roc": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 55, "value": 0.35}, "keltner": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 65, "value": 3.1}, "candlestick": {"signal": "BUY", "confidence": 60, "value": 2.0}}, "mtf": {"5min": {"signal": "BUY", "score": 30.0}, "1h": {"signal": "STRONG_BUY", "score": 45.0}}, "key_levels": {}, "exhaustion": 0}, "raw_reply": {"stance": "support", "confidence": 70, "note": "The trend is up and all signs agree, so buying fits the flow."}}
{"probe": "P6 output-discipline", "payload": {}, "raw_reply": null}
{"probe": "P7 synthesizer", "payload": {"direction": "BUY", "takes": [{"persona": "macro", "stance": "support", "confidence": 70, "note": "evidence aligned"}, {"persona": "technical", "stance": "support", "confidence": 80, "note": "evidence aligned"}, {"persona": "risk", "stance": "support", "confidence": 65, "note": "evidence aligned"}, {"persona": "contrarian", "stance": "support", "confidence": 60, "note": "evidence aligned"}]}, "raw_reply": {"verdict": "AGREE", "confidence": 85, "rationale": "All four analysts support buying, with high confidence and consistent evidence. No one opposes, so the panel clearly backs the trade."}}