Accuracy audit fixes: alerts carry validated per-TF trail plans + 13 more

Five-agent audit of the signal path; all fixes are delivery/measurement
side. Regression-proven behavior-neutral on validated signals: the 5yr
M15 replay reproduces the pinned book exactly (+210.65R PF 1.35
WR 57.8% MaxDD 33.90R). Tests 215 -> 221.

- TradeSetup carries trail_arm_r/trail_dist_r stamped from the producing
  config; Telegram trail plan reads them (was showing default 0.6/0.75
  instead of the validated M15 arm 0.70 / M5 dist 0.85)
- Alert dedup: fingerprint = (signal, quality, direction); entry movement
  compared against last-ALERTED entry/risk (old SL-dist bucket churned on
  ATR drift -> near-duplicate alerts every candle)
- Fresh fetches enforce the closed-bar boundary check with one 3s grace
  retry, then warn (feed lag no longer silently analyzes the prior bar)
- Backtest max DD includes the zero baseline (opening losing streaks
  were undercounted; pinned M15 DD unchanged)
- Replay loads the regime-filter TF when the H4-ADX gate is on (was a
  silent no-op for M5/M15 primaries)
- clear_cache under _cache_lock; dead ROC zero-cross branches removed
  from both engines (provably unreachable); RSS dates via
  parsedate_to_datetime (named zones no longer stamped UTC); event risk
  grades from the soonest event; .env inline comments stripped;
  auto-scan skips NEUTRAL like the breach path; report_to_dict honors
  the weight-0 skip rule and emits strategy/trail params; PB funnel
  counts spread_gate/accepted; session-filter fail-open paths log loudly
- Docs corrected to match validated code (H&S neckline = lower peak,
  exhaustion anchors farthest tracked swing) with re-validation warnings

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01R5soRUeRBi8kHMB99csrJy

CLAUDE.md

@@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ Results land in `TechnicalAnalysis.indicators: Dict[str, IndicatorSignal]` (fiel
 | `macd` | 1.5 | Histogram = MACD line − signal line. Cross above 0 → BUY (conf 55+); accelerating (hist>prev>0) → STRONG_BUY; mirrored down; positive-but-fading / negative-but-fading → NEUTRAL (35); flat → NEUTRAL (30). Confidence scaled by |hist| vs its 20-bar mean |
 | `bollinger` | 1.5 | Position = (close−lower)/(upper−lower). >1.0 SELL (65), <0.0 BUY (65), >0.8 SELL (45), <0.2 BUY (45), else NEUTRAL (30). Squeeze = width < 0.75 × 20-bar avg width → +10 conf. Emits `bb_upper/lower/mid` |
 | `adx` | 0.5 | Wilder ADX/DI (ties zero BOTH DMs — fixes a systematic bearish nudge). ADX ≥ 25 → BUY/SELL by DI dominance, else NEUTRAL. Conf 40/65/80 by ADX band. ADX slope (5-bar diff): <25 with slope > 3.0 → "TREND EMERGING" +15 conf; also strengthening/weakening adjustments. Sets `_adx_slope` |
-| `roc` | 1.5 | 10-period %change. Positive & rising → BUY (STRONG if >2× threshold=2%); negative & falling → SELL; zero-cross → BUY/SELL (65); else NEUTRAL. **Directionally redundant with MACD/Keltner/EMA (0.8–0.94 corr) but its weight is load-bearing: zeroing it backtested 13R WORSE — composite thresholds are calibrated with it. Do not remove without retuning thresholds** |
+| `roc` | 1.5 | 10-period %change. Positive & rising → BUY (STRONG if >2× threshold=2%); negative & falling → SELL (zero-crosses land in these branches by definition — a separate cross branch was provably dead and removed 2026-07-23); else NEUTRAL. **Directionally redundant with MACD/Keltner/EMA (0.8–0.94 corr) but its weight is load-bearing: zeroing it backtested 13R WORSE — composite thresholds are calibrated with it. Do not remove without retuning thresholds** |
 | `keltner` | 1.5 | EMA20 mid ± 1.5×ATR(10). TTM squeeze = BB fully inside KC. Squeeze released (was→not) + MACD hist sign → STRONG_BUY/STRONG_SELL (80); squeeze active → NEUTRAL (60); close above/below channel → BUY/SELL continuation (65); inside → NEUTRAL (30). Emits `kc_upper/lower/mid` |
 | `divergence` | 1.5 | RSI + MACD-hist vs price over 40 bars. Swing points (window 3) must align within ±2 bars to pair up; last two pairs: price LL + indicator HL = bullish, price HH + indicator LH = bearish. Any found → BUY/SELL/NEUTRAL-if-both, conf 70, value = count |
 | `candlestick` | 1.0 | Last bar: Doji (body<10% range), Hammer/Hanging Man (lower wick>2×body), Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer, Engulfing (vs prev bar), Marubozu (body>85%). Majority vote → signal, conf 50; +20 if pattern sits within 0.5 ATR of a swing S/R level |
@@ -185,7 +185,7 @@ Two entry points:
 6. **`_compute_final_signal`** (bonuses → event cap → penalties → thresholds → grade):
    - Bonuses: MTF agreement → +10 conf and `score = 0.6×primary + 0.4×mean(all TF scores)`; news sentiment aligned (|sent|>0.2) → +5 (gated by `news.sentiment_affects_signals`, False by default); in a *directional* trend, RSI in pullback zone → +5, BB position favorable → +5 (mixed `trending` regime gets NO directional bonus).
    - Event risk `danger`: warning always; confidence hard-capped at 30 ONLY if `news.event_risk_caps_signals` (False by default — XAU-tuned).
-   - **Penalty system (diminishing, replaces old additive stacking):** collect, sort by size desc, apply with decay ×1.0, ×0.5, ×0.25…, total capped at 30. Penalties: `mtf_disagreement` 15; `news_conflict` 10 (gated by `sentiment_affects_signals`, off by default — warning still emitted); `event_caution` 15 (config-gated); `counter_trend` 15; `extreme_vol` 10; `ema200_near` 5 (price within 0.5% of EMA200 — env `FB2_EMA_LO` overrides); `ema200_far` 5 (>2.5%); `exhaustion` 8 (price >3.5 ATR beyond nearest swing); `no_pullback` 8 (>2.5 ATR from EMA21 in trend) / `weak_pullback` 5 (>2.0); `rsi_extended` 5 (RSI>65 with BUY / <35 with SELL in any strong-ADX regime, both directions in mixed `trending`); `bb_overextended` 8 (BB pos >0.85 BUY / <0.15 SELL).
+   - **Penalty system (diminishing, replaces old additive stacking):** collect, sort by size desc, apply with decay ×1.0, ×0.5, ×0.25…, total capped at 30. Penalties: `mtf_disagreement` 15; `news_conflict` 10 (gated by `sentiment_affects_signals`, off by default — warning still emitted); `event_caution` 15 (config-gated); `counter_trend` 15; `extreme_vol` 10; `ema200_near` 5 (price within 0.5% of EMA200 — env `FB2_EMA_LO` overrides); `ema200_far` 5 (>2.5%); `exhaustion` 8 (price >3.5 ATR beyond the FARTHEST of the 3 tracked swing levels — fires earlier than a nearest-swing rule would; calibrated as-is in every validated book); `no_pullback` 8 (>2.5 ATR from EMA21 in trend) / `weak_pullback` 5 (>2.0); `rsi_extended` 5 (RSI>65 with BUY / <35 with SELL in any strong-ADX regime, both directions in mixed `trending`); `bb_overextended` 8 (BB pos >0.85 BUY / <0.15 SELL).
    - **Exhaustion hard block**: ≥2 exhaustion-tagged penalties ({exhaustion, no_pullback, rsi_extended, bb_overextended} → `report.exhaustion_count`) AND momentum fading (ROC sign against score, or MACD signal against score) → confidence = 0.
    - Confidence clamped [0, 95]. **Final signal**: score ≥35 & conf ≥55 STRONG_BUY; ≥25 & ≥50 BUY; mirrored sells; else NEUTRAL.
    - **Quality grade**: |score|≥40 & conf≥65 & MTF → **A+**; ≥33 & ≥55 & MTF → **A**; ≥28 & ≥50 → **B**; ≥25 & ≥45 → **C**; ≥15 → **D**; else **F**.
@@ -218,7 +218,7 @@ Two entry points:
 
 **D. `_try_chart_pattern` (XAU_CP)**: detection in `chart_patterns.py` — 6 classical patterns (double_bottom/double_top, inv_hs/hs_top, bull_flag/bear_flag), swing-point based (strict local extrema, window `cp_swing_window`=3), all thresholds in ATR units, scanned over the last `cp_lookback`=72 closed bars. Trigger = FIRST close beyond the neckline/boundary since the pattern formed (one breakout → one signal, no repaint); reversal patterns are invalidated by a new extreme beyond the pattern. No composite-score gate BY DESIGN. Gates: MTF non-opposition (6f mirror); SELL patterns respect `sell_vol_regimes`, `sell_blocked_hours_utc` (bar-close hour), M5 RSI floor; M5 blocks `m5_blocked_vol_regimes` both ways; ATR ≥ $1. Geometry: SL = pattern anchor ∓ 0.5 ATR (min $8); TP1 = measured move (pattern height), TP2 = 1.5×height; RR ≥ 0.5; spread gate $9. Sets `strategy="XAU_CP"` (global trailing params), grade min B, marker `"XAU CHART PATTERN: …"` at reasons[0]. Funnel in `SignalAggregator.cp_funnel`.
 
-`TradeSetup` fields: pair, direction, entry, SL, TP1, TP2, RR, risk/reward pips, pip_value, `strategy` ("GENERIC", "XAU_PB", or "XAU_CP" — selects trailing params; XAU_CP uses the global pair).
+`TradeSetup` fields: pair, direction, entry, SL, TP1, TP2, RR, risk/reward pips, pip_value, `strategy` ("GENERIC", "XAU_PB", or "XAU_CP" — selects trailing params; XAU_CP uses the global pair), `trail_arm_r`/`trail_dist_r` (stamped from the PRODUCING config at generation so per-TF factory overrides reach formatters; `None` = legacy unstamped → display falls back to platform defaults).
 
 ---
 
@@ -235,7 +235,7 @@ Two entry points:
 
 - Twelve Data SDK (`TDClient.time_series(...).as_pandas()`), symbols normalized to `"XAU/USD"` form; renames lowercase columns → capitalized; sorts oldest-first; localizes UTC.
 - **Rate limit**: 55 credits/min sliding window (`_throttle`), blocks with sleep when exhausted.
-- **In-memory cache**: key `{symbol}_{tf}`, TTL = candle duration (M5 300 s … H4 14400 s); a cached frame is evicted and refetched if it fails the freshness check **or the boundary check** (`_has_latest_closed_bar`: the frame must contain the most recent fully closed bar, weekend-exempt — a wall-clock TTL alone would serve mid-candle snapshots at the next boundary and scans would run one bar behind). Cache and throttle are lock-protected (one provider is shared across the bot's thread pool).
+- **In-memory cache**: key `{symbol}_{tf}`, TTL = candle duration (M5 300 s … H4 14400 s); a cached frame is evicted and refetched if it fails the freshness check **or the boundary check** (`_has_latest_closed_bar`: the frame must contain the most recent fully closed bar, weekend-exempt — a wall-clock TTL alone would serve mid-candle snapshots at the next boundary and scans would run one bar behind). Fresh fetches enforce the same boundary guarantee: a response missing the just-closed bar (feed latency at the boundary) gets one grace retry after `FRESH_FETCH_RETRY_SECONDS` (3 s), then proceeds with a loud warning. Cache and throttle are lock-protected (one provider is shared across the bot's thread pool).
 - **`_drop_forming_candle`**: Twelve Data includes the current partial candle; the scanner fires seconds after boundary, so the last bar is dropped if its close time is in the future. Without this every indicator would read a seconds-old stub and signals would repaint.
 - **Freshness** (`_is_data_fresh`): last bar older than 3× candle duration → stale (warns; live path suppresses signal if the PRIMARY TF is stale). Weekends exempt (Fri 22:00→Sun 22:00 UTC).
 - **`_validate_and_clean`**: drop all-NaN rows → ffill (limit 3) → drop NaN closes → sort + dedupe (keep last) → drop future timestamps (>now+5 min) → repair OHLC inconsistencies (High=max, Low=min of O/C/existing) → remove >10σ return outliers (spike bar only — the opposite-direction snap-back bar right after it is kept, else every spike punched a two-bar hole) → warn if < ~210 bars.
@@ -270,11 +270,11 @@ Run: `python telegram_bot.py` (credentials resolve env `TELEGRAM_TOKEN`/`TELEGRA
 - **Owner lock**: every command/button is wrapped in `_owner_only` — only `TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID` gets responses; others get a refusal. The bot is the owner's control panel; the product is the channel.
 - **Subscriber channel** (`TELEGRAM_CHANNEL_ID`, `-100…`; `""` disables): auto-scan signal alerts + breach alerts also post there (bot needs channel-admin). Monetization = Telegram Stars subscription invite links; Telegram handles membership, the bot has zero payment code. The channel feed keeps running even when the owner toggles DM auto-scan off (`_feed_active()` = DM chats OR channel).
 - **Auto-scan**: boot-starts if `TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID` set (initial M15 scan populates the level cache first). Candle-boundary loops for M5/M15/H1/H4, firing at boundary + 10 s. Each scan runs all `scan_pairs` concurrently, updates the level cache, then broadcasts.
-- **Alert gating**: quality threshold (`_alert_min_quality`, default "C", menu cycles C→B→A) + fingerprint dedup per (symbol, TF) on (signal, quality, direction, entry bucket) with 1-hour re-arm — a persisting identical signal doesn't re-send every candle, but a setup that moved ≥ half its risk distance (new pullback/swing anchor) re-alerts. The fingerprint is committed only **after** a message reaches ≥1 target (`_commit_alert`), so a failed Telegram send doesn't consume the alert.
+- **Alert gating**: quality threshold (`_alert_min_quality`, default "C", menu cycles C→B→A) + fingerprint dedup per (symbol, TF) on (signal, quality, direction) with 1-hour re-arm — a persisting identical signal doesn't re-send every candle, but a setup whose entry moved ≥ half the last-ALERTED risk distance (new pullback/swing anchor; compared against the stored last-alert entry/risk, a stable reference immune to per-candle ATR drift) re-alerts. The fingerprint is committed only **after** a message reaches ≥1 target (`_commit_alert`), so a failed Telegram send doesn't consume the alert.
 - **WebSocket monitor**: subscribes every `scan_pairs` symbol to TD quotes WS; 10 s heartbeat; exponential reconnect (≤60 s). On tick crossing any cached key level (`swing_high/low_1..3`, `ema_trend`, `bb_upper/lower`, `kc_upper/lower`; cache TTL 1 h) → immediate M15 rescan → "LEVEL BREAK" alert if actionable+changed (same gates as auto-scan), 5-min per-pair cooldown.
 - **Commands**: `/start` (menu), `/scan` (buttons: per pair — M5/M15/H1/H4 + Scan All TFs), `/autoscan` (toggle DM copy), `/status` (loops, WS, live prices, level cache, cooldowns), `/cache` (age per pair/TF), `/clearcache`, `/help`.
 - **Tiingo spread monitor** (optional; on only when a Tiingo key resolves — see Environment variables): a 5-min sampler task fetches top-of-book bid/ask per scanned pair (`tiingo_provider.py`), logs to `logs/spread_log.csv` (skipping the weekend-closed window), and caches the latest quote; alert sends refresh the quote first, and signal messages then show live bid/ask + a warning when spread ≥ 2× the pair's assumed round-trip cost (`WIDE_SPREAD_MULTIPLE`). **Warn-only BY DESIGN** — no historical bid/ask exists, so a suppressing gate could never be validated (live == backtest rule); signals never consume bid/ask. `/status` shows the live spread per pair. **License (free tier is internal-use-only):** raw bid/ask/spread numbers go to owner DMs always; the channel gets them ONLY while config.json `telegram.channel_spread_detail=true` (the channel is internal/testing as of 2026-07-22 — **flip to false before the channel goes public**), otherwise a number-free "spread unusually wide" caution via `format_signal_message(report, spread_detail=False)` — routing in `_spread_detail_for`, test-enforced, committed default false. **Rate limits (free tier 50 req/h, 1000/day, checked 2026-07-22):** sampler 12/h + alert-batch refreshes ≤17/h + breach refreshes ≤12/h = worst case ≈41/h with ONE pair; adding pairs multiplies this — recheck before growing `scan_pairs`.
-- Signal messages include the full indicator breakdown, warnings, trade setup, **trailing-stop management plan** (arm price + trail distance, from Signal/pb params by `strategy`), and a risk disclaimer on every outbound message.
+- Signal messages include the full indicator breakdown, warnings, trade setup, **trailing-stop management plan** (arm price + trail distance, read from the `trail_arm_r`/`trail_dist_r` stamped on the setup by the producing per-TF config), and a risk disclaimer on every outbound message.
 - Blocking scan work runs in `ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=4)`; one shared `ForexDataProvider` across all scans (cache reuse).
 - **Logging (hardened 2026-07-22)**: root-logger handlers (`force=True`) → console + `logs/telegram.log` (3-hour rotation, 240 backups = 30 days), full-date timestamps; every module logger (data_provider, tiingo_provider, news_engine, websockets, telegram.ext) lands in the same file. Failure surfaces all covered: candle loops and the spread sampler catch-and-continue per cycle (one bad scan can't kill a loop), breach tasks log exceptions via done-callback, PTB `add_error_handler` registered, and `sys.excepthook`/`threading.excepthook` (installed in `main()`) route uncaught crashes to the log. WS monitor keeps its exponential-backoff reconnect + `logger.exception`.
 
@@ -297,7 +297,7 @@ Replays history bar-by-bar through the **real `SignalAggregator.analyze_from_dat
 - Same-bar SL+TP tie → SL first (conservative). Gap through SL/TP → filled at the bar open.
 - **Trailing exits** (default on, from `signals.trail_arm_r/trail_dist_r`; XAU_PB trades carry per-trade 0.8/0.75 overrides): stop ratchets at bar close only, so a new stop can only fill from the next bar (conservative). Exit reasons: SL / TRAIL / TP1 (static mode) / TIMEOUT / NO_DATA.
 - Session + weekend + weekday filters evaluate the **decision time = bar close** (`ts + primary_duration`) — exactly matching the live bot's wall-clock check.
-- The optional H4-ADX regime filter (`config.backtest.regime_filter`, default off) is applied in the replay by calling the live `_apply_regime_filter_live` method itself under the same guard — live and backtest cannot diverge if it's enabled (2026-07-21 parity fix; the unregistered-pair config fallback also applies the config.json overlay now).
+- The optional H4-ADX regime filter (`config.backtest.regime_filter`, default off) is applied in the replay by calling the live `_apply_regime_filter_live` method itself under the same guard, and the replay loads/slices the regime-filter TF whenever the gate is on (like live `analyze_pair`) — previously M5/M15 primaries silently no-opped the filter because H4 wasn't in their confirm maps. Live and backtest cannot diverge if it's enabled (2026-07-21 parity fix; the unregistered-pair config fallback also applies the config.json overlay now).
 - Confirmation TFs are sliced to bars **fully closed** by decision time (no look-ahead).
 
 **Performance:** `precompute_indicators` builds every indicator series once per TF (CuPy on GPU or NumPy — check the log line `Backend: CuPy GPU` vs `NumPy CPU fallback`; CuPy needs the `nvidia-*-cu12` pip wheels or it silently falls back). `GPUTechnicalEngine` subclasses the live engine and overrides only the `_compute_*` methods with cache lookups — outputs are byte-identical to the live engine (regression-tested). Bar replay: pure per-bar evaluation fans out over forked worker processes (`--workers`, 0 = auto: cores−2 capped 12; <5000 bars forces 1); the entry **cooldown (5 bars) is the only sequential rule**, applied in an ordered pass afterwards — parallel and sequential books are identical. ~300 bars/s/core, ~1700 bars/s at 10 workers.