violent-move watch: display-only warning line + owner heads-up (dark by default)

New violent_watch.py assesses each scan from the cached Forex Factory week events, the
UTC clock and the report's own indicator states, and stamps SignalReport.watch_line
post-hoc (telegram alerts, CLI, dashboard). A standalone heads-up goes to the owner on
the fastest scanned timeframe when the level is "hot", once per UTC hour per trigger
set, capped per day. Config block `violent_watch` (enabled False, alert_line, headsup,
max_headsup_per_day, headsup_min_level); env VIOLENT_WATCH_ENABLED.

Rule chosen from a 3-year bar-by-bar sweep (backtest/research/watch_rule_eval.py,
recorded in sizing_campaign_2026-09.md): hot = high-impact USD release within 30 min
(before or after) OR a hot clock slot (weekday 12-14 UTC, 01 UTC, Sunday 22-23 UTC)
with at least one price-extreme reading (outside Bollinger bands, RSI <30/>=70, outside
Keltner); ~8.6% of bars, next-bar odds 3-5x normal, ~4 hot hours/day. watch = clock
slot alone or two price-extreme readings (~2x). Context readings (ADX rising, extreme
volatility, transitioning, MACD acceleration) are phrases only - letting them raise the
level flagged 27% of bars at ~2x and would have sent ~13 heads-ups/day (rejected).
Direction sentence: DOWN when bearish readings dominate (70-78% on both TFs), UP on M5
only. Never a gate or exit: every open-trade protection tested lost money.

Test-locked out of analyze_from_dataframes / engine / backtester. Module 30 (18 tests).
Suite: 453 passed. Guide PDFs not rebuilt.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01RWV2yLt3YXHHGVYHSQU2EE

dashboard_publisher.py

@@ -50,11 +50,13 @@ from logging.handlers import TimedRotatingFileHandler
 from typing import Dict, List, Optional
 
 from agent_panel import attach_panel
+from app_config import get_app_config, violent_watch_enabled
 from config import PlatformConfig, Timeframe, XAUUSD
 from main import report_to_dict
 from news_engine import NewsEngine
 from pair_signals import produce_signal
 from providers import make_data_provider
+from violent_watch import attach_watch
 import providers.base as _providers_base
 
 logger = logging.getLogger("dashboard")
@@ -359,6 +361,11 @@ class DashboardPublisher:
         try:
             report = produce_signal(XAUUSD, tf, self._provider(),
                                     CONFIRMATIONS[tf])
+            # Display-only violent-move watch (dark by default). Never
+            # raises and never touches the signal — only watch_line.
+            if violent_watch_enabled():
+                attach_watch(report, tf,
+                             get_app_config().violent_watch_settings)
             self._reports[tf.value] = report
             self.snapshots[tf.value] = {
                 "status": "ok",