violent-move watch: display-only warning line + owner heads-up (dark by default)

New violent_watch.py assesses each scan from the cached Forex Factory week events, the
UTC clock and the report's own indicator states, and stamps SignalReport.watch_line
post-hoc (telegram alerts, CLI, dashboard). A standalone heads-up goes to the owner on
the fastest scanned timeframe when the level is "hot", once per UTC hour per trigger
set, capped per day. Config block `violent_watch` (enabled False, alert_line, headsup,
max_headsup_per_day, headsup_min_level); env VIOLENT_WATCH_ENABLED.

Rule chosen from a 3-year bar-by-bar sweep (backtest/research/watch_rule_eval.py,
recorded in sizing_campaign_2026-09.md): hot = high-impact USD release within 30 min
(before or after) OR a hot clock slot (weekday 12-14 UTC, 01 UTC, Sunday 22-23 UTC)
with at least one price-extreme reading (outside Bollinger bands, RSI <30/>=70, outside
Keltner); ~8.6% of bars, next-bar odds 3-5x normal, ~4 hot hours/day. watch = clock
slot alone or two price-extreme readings (~2x). Context readings (ADX rising, extreme
volatility, transitioning, MACD acceleration) are phrases only - letting them raise the
level flagged 27% of bars at ~2x and would have sent ~13 heads-ups/day (rejected).
Direction sentence: DOWN when bearish readings dominate (70-78% on both TFs), UP on M5
only. Never a gate or exit: every open-trade protection tested lost money.

Test-locked out of analyze_from_dataframes / engine / backtester. Module 30 (18 tests).
Suite: 453 passed. Guide PDFs not rebuilt.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01RWV2yLt3YXHHGVYHSQU2EE

This commit is contained in:

Harwinder Sekhon

2026-09-05 21:19:24 -04:00

parent cf2ad73343

commit 97f6a0e206

12 changed files with 986 additions and 5 deletions

									
										signal_aggregator.py
									
		+6
		
												View File
												
				@@ -112,6 +112,12 @@ class SignalReport:

				    panel_payload_hash: str = ""

				    panel_verdict_source: str = ""  # "macro" / "chair" / ""

				    # Violent-move watch line (advisory/DISPLAY-ONLY). Stamped post-hoc

				    # by surfaces via violent_watch.attach_watch — never populated

				    # inside analyze_from_dataframes (backtest parity) and never read by

				    # any gate, grade or setup generator.

				    watch_line: str = ""

				    final_signal: SignalStrength = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL

				    final_score: float = 0.0

				    final_confidence: float = 0.0