violent-move watch: display-only warning line + owner heads-up (dark by default)

New violent_watch.py assesses each scan from the cached Forex Factory week events, the
UTC clock and the report's own indicator states, and stamps SignalReport.watch_line
post-hoc (telegram alerts, CLI, dashboard). A standalone heads-up goes to the owner on
the fastest scanned timeframe when the level is "hot", once per UTC hour per trigger
set, capped per day. Config block `violent_watch` (enabled False, alert_line, headsup,
max_headsup_per_day, headsup_min_level); env VIOLENT_WATCH_ENABLED.

Rule chosen from a 3-year bar-by-bar sweep (backtest/research/watch_rule_eval.py,
recorded in sizing_campaign_2026-09.md): hot = high-impact USD release within 30 min
(before or after) OR a hot clock slot (weekday 12-14 UTC, 01 UTC, Sunday 22-23 UTC)
with at least one price-extreme reading (outside Bollinger bands, RSI <30/>=70, outside
Keltner); ~8.6% of bars, next-bar odds 3-5x normal, ~4 hot hours/day. watch = clock
slot alone or two price-extreme readings (~2x). Context readings (ADX rising, extreme
volatility, transitioning, MACD acceleration) are phrases only - letting them raise the
level flagged 27% of bars at ~2x and would have sent ~13 heads-ups/day (rejected).
Direction sentence: DOWN when bearish readings dominate (70-78% on both TFs), UP on M5
only. Never a gate or exit: every open-trade protection tested lost money.

Test-locked out of analyze_from_dataframes / engine / backtester. Module 30 (18 tests).
Suite: 453 passed. Guide PDFs not rebuilt.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01RWV2yLt3YXHHGVYHSQU2EE

telegram_bot.py

@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ import threading
 import time
 from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
-from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Set
+from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Set
 
 from telegram import InlineKeyboardButton, InlineKeyboardMarkup, Update
 from telegram.constants import ParseMode
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ from config import (
 )
 from app_config import (
     get_app_config, telegram_token, telegram_chat_id,
-    telegram_channel_id,
+    telegram_channel_id, violent_watch_enabled,
 )
 from providers import BaseDataProvider, make_data_provider
 from agent_panel import attach_panel, panel_health
@@ -77,6 +77,7 @@ from market_outlook import maybe_run_outlook
 from news_engine import FundamentalContext, NewsEngine
 from pair_signals import PAIR_PRODUCERS
 from signal_aggregator import SignalAggregator, SignalReport
+from violent_watch import ViolentWatch, attach_watch, should_send_headsup
 
 _APP = get_app_config()
 
@@ -410,6 +411,10 @@ def format_signal_message(report: SignalReport) -> str:
         extra.append(f"📋 {ind_summary}")
     for w in report.warnings:
         extra.append(f"⚠️ {_escape_md(w)}")
+    # Display-only violent-move watch (violent_watch.attach_watch stamps
+    # it post-hoc; it is empty unless the feature is enabled).
+    if report.watch_line:
+        extra.append(_escape_md(report.watch_line))
     if report.news_summary:
         extra.append(f"📰 {_escape_md(report.news_summary)}")
     if report.panel_verdict:
@@ -753,6 +758,33 @@ def _seconds_until_boundary(interval_minutes: int, buffer: int = 10) -> float:
     return remaining
 
 
+# ── Violent-move watch (display-only) ────────────────────────────────
+# Per-process heads-up budget: {"day": date, "count": int, "sent": {...}}.
+_watch_state: Dict[str, Any] = {}
+
+
+def _format_headsup(report: SignalReport, w: "ViolentWatch") -> str:
+    """Standalone owner heads-up. Advisory only — it never asks anyone
+    to touch an open trade: every protective action tested lost money
+    (sizing_campaign_2026-09.md), so the stop stays the protection."""
+    lines = [
+        f"🌪 *Heads-up — {_escape_md(report.display_name)}*: "
+        f"violent-move conditions for the next hour.",
+        _escape_md(" · ".join(w.triggers)),
+    ]
+    if w.likely_direction == "down":
+        lines.append("If a big move comes, it has usually gone DOWN from "
+                     "readings like these.")
+    elif w.likely_direction == "up":
+        lines.append("If a big move comes, it has usually gone UP from "
+                     "readings like these.")
+    lines.append(
+        "If you have a trade open, expect big bars. Your stop is the "
+        "protection — past tests show closing or tightening early loses "
+        "money.")
+    return "\n".join(lines)
+
+
 async def _scan_timeframe(
     bot,
     tf: Timeframe,
@@ -779,6 +811,38 @@ async def _scan_timeframe(
 
     _update_level_cache(reports)
 
+    # Violent-move watch: DISPLAY-ONLY. Runs before the alert loop so
+    # the stamped line is present when format_signal_message renders,
+    # and can never break an alert (whole block is best-effort).
+    try:
+        vw_settings = get_app_config().violent_watch_settings
+        if violent_watch_enabled():
+            now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            for report in reports:
+                w = attach_watch(report, tf, vw_settings, now)
+                if not (tf == _HEADSUP_TF
+                        and vw_settings.get("headsup", True)
+                        and OWNER_ID is not None):
+                    continue
+                min_level = vw_settings.get("headsup_min_level", "hot")
+                if w.level == "hot" or (min_level == "watch"
+                                        and w.level == "watch"):
+                    ok, why = should_send_headsup(
+                        _watch_state, now, w.kinds,
+                        int(vw_settings.get("max_headsup_per_day", 12)))
+                    if ok:
+                        await _send_alert(bot, OWNER_ID,
+                                          _format_headsup(report, w))
+                    else:
+                        logger.info(
+                            f"violent watch: heads-up skipped ({why})")
+                else:
+                    logger.debug(
+                        f"violent watch: {report.symbol} {tf.value} "
+                        f"level={w.level} (min {min_level}) — no heads-up")
+    except Exception:
+        logger.exception("violent watch failed")
+
     candidates = [
         r for r in reports
         if r.final_signal != SignalStrength.NEUTRAL   # same gate as breach path
@@ -1100,6 +1164,15 @@ _AUTOSCAN_LOOPS = [
     (tf, _TF_INTERVAL_MINUTES[tf]) for tf in _APP.scan_timeframes
 ]
 
+# The violent-move heads-up is evaluated on the FASTEST scanned loop
+# only — it is a "next hour" warning, so once per fastest candle is the
+# most frequent it can be, and every slower loop would just repeat it.
+_HEADSUP_TF: Optional[Timeframe] = min(
+    _APP.scan_timeframes,
+    key=lambda tf: _TF_INTERVAL_MINUTES.get(tf, 10 ** 6),
+    default=None,
+)
+
 
 _ws_task: Optional[asyncio.Task] = None