signal_log: outcomes for every setup, event dedup, interned news; fix over-scan, dead outlook, panel OPPOSE bias

- seed an advisory outcome on every setup row; same-setup re-logs within 60 min
  are DUPLICATE rows (advisory_event_id); resolver rebuilds bar streams across gaps
- headlines/events interned into news_snapshots (DB 667 MB -> 262 MB); readers
  use signals_with_news / read_news and mode=ro (immutable=1 missed WAL rows)
- post-gate truth columns: gate_reason, actionable, cleaned_warnings, scan_kind,
  config_fingerprint; SELL-hour gates fail closed
- telegram: breach rescan reuses this bar's report; grade dropped from alert
  fingerprint (upgrade-only re-alert)
- market_outlook: hour-bucket dedup (old rule skipped alternate hours), skip heartbeats
- agent_panel: macro-anchored OPPOSE guard (opposed trades were +30R over 3 weeks)
- analyze_signal_log --stored-candles/--parity; backfill + news migration scripts
- tests: Module 25 (analyze_signal_log) + 27 (observability); 429 total

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01FC4s6VCURFte4dub4xKxYL

scripts/backfill_signal_outcomes.py

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""
+backfill_signal_outcomes.py — seed and advance advisory outcomes for every
+logged trade setup (not only panel rows), one per advisory event.
+
+Pass A (offline, no network): assign setup_key / advisory_event_id to all
+legacy setup rows, mark same-setup re-logs within 60 min as DUPLICATE, and
+seed a PENDING outcome on each canonical row that has none. Existing
+(panel-seeded) outcomes are never overwritten.
+
+Pass B: advance PENDING rows from the closed-candle streams already stored
+in the DB (union across every snapshot of the timeframe — no provider).
+
+Pass C (--reseed-unresolvable): bounded re-seed of continuity-broken rows,
+then Pass B again.
+
+Safe beside the live writers: short per-row transactions with a busy
+timeout. Read-only preview with --dry-run.
+
+    python scripts/backfill_signal_outcomes.py --dry-run
+    python scripts/backfill_signal_outcomes.py
+    python scripts/backfill_signal_outcomes.py --reseed-unresolvable
+"""
+import argparse
+import os
+import sqlite3
+import sys
+
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+import app_config  # noqa: E402
+from signal_log import SignalLogger  # noqa: E402
+
+
+def _status_counts(con: sqlite3.Connection) -> dict:
+    return dict(con.execute(
+        "SELECT COALESCE(advisory_outcome_status, 'NULL'), COUNT(*)"
+        " FROM signals WHERE setup_json IS NOT NULL AND setup_json != 'null'"
+        " GROUP BY 1").fetchall())
+
+
+def main(argv=None) -> int:
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.splitlines()[1])
+    ap.add_argument("--db", default=None, help="defaults to signal_log.path")
+    ap.add_argument("--dry-run", action="store_true")
+    ap.add_argument("--reseed-unresolvable", action="store_true")
+    ap.add_argument("--symbol", default="XAU/USD")
+    args = ap.parse_args(argv)
+    path = args.db or app_config.signal_log_path()
+    if not os.path.exists(path):
+        print(f"no database at {path}")
+        return 1
+    if args.dry_run:
+        con = sqlite3.connect(f"file:{os.path.abspath(path)}?mode=ro", uri=True)
+        print("setup rows by outcome status:", _status_counts(con))
+        have = {r[1] for r in con.execute("PRAGMA table_info(signals)")}
+        if "setup_key" in have:
+            n_keyless = con.execute(
+                "SELECT COUNT(*) FROM signals WHERE setup_json IS NOT NULL"
+                " AND setup_json != 'null' AND setup_key IS NULL").fetchone()[0]
+            print(f"setup rows without setup_key: {n_keyless}")
+        else:
+            print("setup_key column not present yet (schema migrates on"
+                  " the first non-dry run)")
+        con.close()
+        return 0
+    lg = SignalLogger(path)
+    try:
+        print("before:", _status_counts(lg._conn))
+        print("pass A (seed/dedup):", lg.backfill_seeds())
+        total = 0
+        for _ in range(50):
+            n = lg.resolve_from_store(args.symbol)
+            total += n
+            if n == 0:
+                break
+        print(f"pass B (advance from stored bars): {total} rows changed")
+        if args.reseed_unresolvable:
+            reseeded = lg.reseed_unresolvable()
+            print(f"pass C (re-seed): {len(reseeded)} rows re-seeded")
+            for _ in range(50):
+                if lg.resolve_from_store(args.symbol) == 0:
+                    break
+        print("after:", _status_counts(lg._conn))
+    finally:
+        lg.close()
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())