signal_log: outcomes for every setup, event dedup, interned news; fix over-scan, dead outlook, panel OPPOSE bias

- seed an advisory outcome on every setup row; same-setup re-logs within 60 min
  are DUPLICATE rows (advisory_event_id); resolver rebuilds bar streams across gaps
- headlines/events interned into news_snapshots (DB 667 MB -> 262 MB); readers
  use signals_with_news / read_news and mode=ro (immutable=1 missed WAL rows)
- post-gate truth columns: gate_reason, actionable, cleaned_warnings, scan_kind,
  config_fingerprint; SELL-hour gates fail closed
- telegram: breach rescan reuses this bar's report; grade dropped from alert
  fingerprint (upgrade-only re-alert)
- market_outlook: hour-bucket dedup (old rule skipped alternate hours), skip heartbeats
- agent_panel: macro-anchored OPPOSE guard (opposed trades were +30R over 3 weeks)
- analyze_signal_log --stored-candles/--parity; backfill + news migration scripts
- tests: Module 25 (analyze_signal_log) + 27 (observability); 429 total

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01FC4s6VCURFte4dub4xKxYL

telegram_bot.py

@@ -549,9 +549,50 @@ async def run_signal(
     confirmation_tfs: Optional[List[Timeframe]] = None,
 ) -> SignalReport:
     loop = asyncio.get_running_loop()
-    return await loop.run_in_executor(
+    report = await loop.run_in_executor(
         _executor, _run_signal_sync, symbol, timeframe, confirmation_tfs
     )
+    _remember_scan(symbol, timeframe, report)
+    return report
+
+
+# Most recent report per (symbol, timeframe) keyed by the closed-bar epoch
+# it was computed for. Closed-bar inputs are identical within a bar, so a
+# rescan inside the same bar (the WS level-breach handler fired up to
+# ~5 min apart all day, logging 3.5 M15 rows per candle — 2026-09 audit)
+# can reuse it instead of re-fetching, re-scoring and re-logging.
+_last_scan: Dict[str, tuple] = {}
+_TF_SECONDS_CACHE = {
+    Timeframe.M1: 60, Timeframe.M5: 300, Timeframe.M15: 900,
+    Timeframe.M30: 1800, Timeframe.H1: 3600, Timeframe.H4: 14400,
+    Timeframe.D1: 86400,
+}
+
+
+def _bar_epoch(tf: Timeframe, now: Optional[float] = None) -> int:
+    """Epoch of the most recent candle boundary for ``tf`` (UTC-anchored,
+    the same grid _seconds_until_boundary sleeps to)."""
+    secs = _TF_SECONDS_CACHE.get(tf, 900)
+    t = int(time.time() if now is None else now)
+    return t - t % secs
+
+
+def _remember_scan(symbol: str, tf: Timeframe, report: SignalReport) -> None:
+    _last_scan[f"{symbol}_{tf.value}"] = (_bar_epoch(tf), report)
+
+
+async def _cached_or_scan(
+    symbol: str,
+    timeframe: Timeframe,
+    confirmation_tfs: Optional[List[Timeframe]] = None,
+) -> SignalReport:
+    """run_signal, unless this bar already has a report for the key."""
+    cached = _last_scan.get(f"{symbol}_{timeframe.value}")
+    if cached is not None and cached[0] == _bar_epoch(timeframe):
+        logger.info(
+            f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: reusing this bar's scan — no rescan")
+        return cached[1]
+    return await run_signal(symbol, timeframe, confirmation_tfs)
 
 
 # ── Alert gating (quality threshold + dedup) ─────────────────────────
@@ -572,17 +613,22 @@ def _passes_quality(quality: str) -> bool:
     return _QUALITY_RANK.get(quality, 0) >= _QUALITY_RANK.get(_alert_min_quality, 1)
 
 
+_last_alert_quality: Dict[str, str] = {}   # key → grade of last ALERTED signal
+
+
 def _alert_fingerprint(report: SignalReport) -> tuple:
-    """Alert identity for dedup: signal, quality, setup direction.
+    """Alert identity for dedup: signal and setup direction.
 
     Entry movement is checked separately in _should_alert against the
     last ALERTED entry/risk (a stable reference). Deriving a price bucket
     from the CURRENT SL distance here made the fingerprint churn on
-    normal ATR/anchor drift — near-duplicate alerts every candle."""
+    normal ATR/anchor drift — near-duplicate alerts every candle. The
+    grade is deliberately NOT part of the identity (2026-09 audit: an
+    A↔B flicker on an unchanged idea re-sent the full alert ~4× in 45
+    min); a grade UPGRADE re-alerts via _should_alert instead."""
     setup = report.trade_setup
     return (
         report.final_signal.name,
-        report.signal_quality,
         setup.direction if setup else None,
     )
 
@@ -602,6 +648,12 @@ def _should_alert(key: str, report: SignalReport) -> bool:
         return True
     if time.time() - _last_alert_ts.get(key, 0) >= _ALERT_REARM_SECONDS:
         return True
+    # Same idea at a HIGHER grade than last alerted → worth re-sending;
+    # a downgrade or flicker back is not.
+    last_q = _last_alert_quality.get(key)
+    if last_q is not None and (_QUALITY_RANK.get(report.signal_quality, 0)
+                               > _QUALITY_RANK.get(last_q, 0)):
+        return True
     setup = report.trade_setup
     last = _last_alert_setup.get(key)
     if setup is not None and last is not None:
@@ -614,6 +666,7 @@ def _should_alert(key: str, report: SignalReport) -> bool:
 def _commit_alert(key: str, report: SignalReport) -> None:
     _last_alert_fp[key] = _alert_fingerprint(report)
     _last_alert_ts[key] = time.time()
+    _last_alert_quality[key] = report.signal_quality
     setup = report.trade_setup
     if setup is not None:
         _last_alert_setup[key] = (
@@ -871,7 +924,7 @@ async def _handle_breach(bot, pair_symbol: str, price: float, level_name: str) -
     logger.info(f"Level breach: {display} crossed {label} at {price} — rescanning M15")
 
     try:
-        report = await run_signal(pair_symbol, Timeframe.M15)
+        report = await _cached_or_scan(pair_symbol, Timeframe.M15)
         _update_level_cache([report])
     except Exception:
         logger.exception(f"Breach scan failed for {display}")