signal_log: outcomes for every setup, event dedup, interned news; fix over-scan, dead outlook, panel OPPOSE bias

- seed an advisory outcome on every setup row; same-setup re-logs within 60 min
  are DUPLICATE rows (advisory_event_id); resolver rebuilds bar streams across gaps
- headlines/events interned into news_snapshots (DB 667 MB -> 262 MB); readers
  use signals_with_news / read_news and mode=ro (immutable=1 missed WAL rows)
- post-gate truth columns: gate_reason, actionable, cleaned_warnings, scan_kind,
  config_fingerprint; SELL-hour gates fail closed
- telegram: breach rescan reuses this bar's report; grade dropped from alert
  fingerprint (upgrade-only re-alert)
- market_outlook: hour-bucket dedup (old rule skipped alternate hours), skip heartbeats
- agent_panel: macro-anchored OPPOSE guard (opposed trades were +30R over 3 weeks)
- analyze_signal_log --stored-candles/--parity; backfill + news migration scripts
- tests: Module 25 (analyze_signal_log) + 27 (observability); 429 total

Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01FC4s6VCURFte4dub4xKxYL

market_outlook.py

@@ -253,7 +253,9 @@ def _recent_signals() -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
     """Read the latest signal history through SQLite's immutable URI."""
     try:
         path = os.path.abspath(signal_log_path())
-        uri = f"file:{path}?immutable=1"
+        # mode=ro (not immutable=1): immutable ignores the WAL, so the
+        # newest rows written by the live loggers were invisible here.
+        uri = f"file:{path}?mode=ro"
         con = sqlite3.connect(uri, uri=True)
         try:
             rows = con.execute(
@@ -328,28 +330,44 @@ def _collect_payload(settings: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
 
 _state_lock = threading.Lock()
 _last_run_ts: Optional[float] = None
+_last_run_hour: Optional[int] = None   # UTC hour bucket of the last attempt
 _outlook_day: Optional[_dt.date] = None
 _outlook_count = 0
 _warned_budget = False
 
 
+def _skip(reason: str) -> None:
+    """Heartbeat for every silent early return — a dark outlook feature
+    (zero rows for 15 days, 2026-08/09) must be visible in the log."""
+    logger.info("market outlook: skipped (%s)", reason)
+
+
 def reset_outlook_state() -> None:
     """Drop hourly and daily state (tests / deployment config reloads)."""
-    global _last_run_ts, _outlook_day, _outlook_count, _warned_budget
+    global _last_run_ts, _last_run_hour, _outlook_day, _outlook_count
+    global _warned_budget
     with _state_lock:
         _last_run_ts = None
+        _last_run_hour = None
         _outlook_day = None
         _outlook_count = 0
         _warned_budget = False
 
 
 def _begin_attempt(cap: int, force: bool) -> bool:
-    """Atomically apply hourly dedup, then reserve a daily attempt."""
-    global _last_run_ts, _outlook_day, _outlook_count, _warned_budget
+    """Atomically apply hourly dedup, then reserve a daily attempt.
+
+    Hourly dedup is by UTC hour BUCKET, not ``now - last < 3600``: the
+    H1 loop calls this at boundary+10 s+scan time, so consecutive hours
+    were routinely 3,590 s apart and every other hour was dropped."""
+    global _last_run_ts, _last_run_hour, _outlook_day, _outlook_count
+    global _warned_budget
     now = time.time()
+    hour_bucket = int(now // 3600)
     today = _dt.datetime.now(_dt.timezone.utc).date()
     with _state_lock:
-        if not force and _last_run_ts is not None and now - _last_run_ts < 3600:
+        if not force and _last_run_hour == hour_bucket:
+            _skip(f"hour bucket {hour_bucket} already attempted")
             return False
         if _outlook_day != today:
             _outlook_day = today
@@ -361,9 +379,12 @@ def _begin_attempt(cap: int, force: bool) -> bool:
                 logger.warning(
                     "market outlook: daily budget (%d) exhausted — no more "
                     "outlooks until UTC midnight", cap)
+            else:
+                _skip("daily budget exhausted")
             return False
         _outlook_count += 1
         _last_run_ts = now
+        _last_run_hour = hour_bucket
         return True
 
 
@@ -372,8 +393,13 @@ def run_outlook(settings: Dict[str, Any],
     """Build, ask, validate, and persist one advisory outlook."""
     try:
         payload = _collect_payload(settings)
-        result = _validate_outlook(get_llm_client().chat_json(SYSTEM_PROMPT, payload))
+        reply = get_llm_client().chat_json(SYSTEM_PROMPT, payload)
+        result = _validate_outlook(reply)
         if result is None:
+            logger.warning(
+                "market outlook: no outlook produced (%s)",
+                "LLM returned nothing — cap/timeout/disabled" if reply is None
+                else "reply failed validation")
             return None
         try:
             from signal_log import log_outlook
@@ -396,13 +422,19 @@ def maybe_run_outlook(surface: str, force: bool = False) -> Optional[OutlookResu
         settings = get_app_config().market_outlook_settings
         if not force:
             if not market_outlook_enabled():
+                _skip("disabled")
                 return None
             if surface == "telegram" and not settings.get("telegram", False):
+                _skip("telegram surface off")
                 return None
         if _provider_base._is_forex_weekend():
+            _skip("weekend")
             return None
         cap = int(settings.get("max_per_day", DEFAULT_MAX_PER_DAY))
-        if cap < 1 or not _begin_attempt(cap, force):
+        if cap < 1:
+            _skip("max_per_day < 1")
+            return None
+        if not _begin_attempt(cap, force):
             return None
         return run_outlook(settings, surface=surface)
     except Exception: