news: DeepSeek validation, vs_forecast fix, /status source health

Validation (llm_news_eval.py harness + 78-headline golden CSV + verdict
doc): headline scoring 78/78 vs keyword baseline 24/78 — validated;
event gold-direction calls misread close K/M numeric comparisons ~11%
of the time (both claims cases in sample, JOLTS 8.79M vs 8.84M).

Fix: event payload now carries code-computed "vs_forecast" (from
EconomicEvent.surprise) and the prompt gains an explicit inverted-
metrics rule + worked claims example — iteration 1 (field alone) fixed
the arithmetic but exposed a masked inversion error. 18/18 on live
re-verification (4 misreads fixed, 11 regression cases clean, 3 fresh
both-side probes).

/status: new "News & AI" section — per-source health for the calendar
chain (which of FF/MyFXBook served), each RSS feed, and DeepSeek
(daily count, last error kind), written passively by the existing
fetch paths under _cache_lock. Failures WARN once on transition
(repeats DEBUG, recovery INFO) so the rotating log carries outage
stories without 10-min spam.

test_all.py: +5 Module 19 tests (351 total); also carries the Module 22
fixed-RR-TP tests from the prior research session (shared file).
Replay artifacts dir gitignored like commit_ladder.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017mbXs9HRawZhD1uZ3ze7zQ

telegram_bot.py

@@ -71,6 +71,7 @@ from app_config import (
     telegram_channel_id,
 )
 from providers import BaseDataProvider, make_data_provider
+from llm_client import get_llm_client
 from news_engine import FundamentalContext, NewsEngine
 from pair_signals import PAIR_PRODUCERS
 from signal_aggregator import SignalAggregator, SignalReport
@@ -1114,6 +1115,87 @@ async def cmd_help(update: Update, context: ContextTypes.DEFAULT_TYPE) -> None:
     await update.message.reply_text(_HELP_TEXT, parse_mode=ParseMode.MARKDOWN)
 
 
+def _fmt_age(ts: Optional[float]) -> str:
+    """Compact age like '45s', '12m', '3.2h' for status lines."""
+    if not ts:
+        return "?"
+    s = time.time() - ts
+    if s < 90:
+        return f"{s:.0f}s"
+    if s < 5400:
+        return f"{s / 60:.0f}m"
+    return f"{s / 3600:.1f}h"
+
+
+def _news_health_lines() -> List[str]:
+    """News / calendar / DeepSeek source health for /status.
+
+    Reads the class-level `NewsEngine._source_health` written by the
+    scan-path fetches plus the LLM client's health stamps — display
+    only, never triggers a fetch. ⚠️ marks a degraded dependency;
+    details live in the rotating log (transition-logged WARNINGs)."""
+    lines = ["\n*News & AI:*"]
+    # Snapshot: a scan thread may insert a source's FIRST entry while we
+    # iterate (dict-changed-size RuntimeError); entry mutation is safe.
+    for _ in range(3):
+        try:
+            sh = dict(NewsEngine._source_health)
+            break
+        except RuntimeError:
+            continue
+    else:
+        sh = {}
+    if not sh:
+        lines.append("  _no news cycle yet (fills after first scan)_")
+    else:
+        cal = sh.get("calendar")
+        ff = sh.get("calendar:forexfactory")
+        if cal:
+            if NewsEngine.source_is_failing(cal):
+                lines.append(f"  ⚠️ Calendar: unavailable — {cal['detail']}"
+                             f" ({_fmt_age(cal['err'])})")
+            elif NewsEngine.source_is_failing(ff):
+                lines.append(f"  ⚠️ Calendar: {cal['extra']} — ForexFactory"
+                             f" down: {ff['detail']} ({_fmt_age(ff['err'])})")
+            else:
+                lines.append(f"  ✅ Calendar: {cal['extra']}"
+                             f" ({_fmt_age(cal['ok'])} ago)")
+        heads = sh.get("headlines")
+        if heads:
+            failing = NewsEngine.source_is_failing(heads)
+            mark = "⚠️" if failing else "✅"
+            detail = f" — {heads['detail']}" if failing else ""
+            ts = heads["err"] if failing else heads["ok"]
+            lines.append(f"  {mark} Headlines: {heads['extra']}{detail}"
+                         f" ({_fmt_age(ts)} ago)")
+        for name, entry in sorted(sh.items()):
+            if name.startswith("rss:") and NewsEngine.source_is_failing(entry):
+                lines.append(f"  ⚠️ {name[4:]}: {entry['detail']}"
+                             f" ({_fmt_age(entry['err'])})")
+    client = get_llm_client()
+    if not client.available:
+        lines.append("  DeepSeek: off — keyword scoring only")
+    else:
+        # The client's counter only resets on the first call of a new
+        # UTC day — show 0 (not yesterday's total, or a phantom
+        # cap-exhausted warning) until that reset happens.
+        today = datetime.now(timezone.utc).date()
+        used = client._count if client._count_day == today else 0
+        cap = client._daily_cap
+        scored = len(NewsEngine._llm_sent_cache)
+        err = client.last_error
+        if used >= cap:
+            lines.append(f"  ⚠️ DeepSeek: daily cap {cap} exhausted —"
+                         " keyword fallback until UTC midnight")
+        elif err and err[0] > client.last_ok:
+            lines.append(f"  ⚠️ DeepSeek: last call failed ({err[1]},"
+                         f" {_fmt_age(err[0])}) — keyword fallback")
+        else:
+            lines.append(f"  ✅ DeepSeek: {used}/{cap} calls today,"
+                         f" {scored} headlines scored")
+    return lines
+
+
 def _status_text() -> str:
     lines = ["📊 *ForexBot2 Status*\n"]
 
@@ -1172,6 +1254,8 @@ def _status_text() -> str:
     if active_breach:
         lines.append(f"*Breach tasks:* {active_breach} running")
 
+    lines.extend(_news_health_lines())
+
     lines.append(f"\n*Alert quality:* {_alert_min_quality}+ "
                  f"| re-arm {_ALERT_REARM_SECONDS // 60}m")
     return "\n".join(lines)