Conviction campaign 2026-09-27 (FAILED, research knob kept) + plain-words alert wording

Owner question: can score and confidence be combined into one number that is
easier to understand and for the system to decide on?

Research (pre-registered, nothing ships to the signal path):
- signals.grading_mode: "pair" (default, the shipped two-floor rule, byte-
  identical: all five reference MD5s reproduce on both scripts), "min"
  (min(|score|, 0.6*conf)), "product" (|score|*conf/100); thresholds fixed from
  the control's corner points, no tuning. Helpers _final_signal_and_grade /
  _transitioning_boost / conviction / CONVICTION_THRESHOLDS in signal_aggregator;
  mirrored in K2 (GRADING_MODE_CODES, PF_conv_* packed from the live module);
  twin refuses other values; M15 OOS MD5 equal on both scripts for both modes.
- Verdict: FAILED on M5 and M15. K-MIN moves 43-54 trades for -1.2R / -2.9R
  (clauses a,b,e / a,b,d); K-PROD -29R on M15 (PF 1.29, W3 DD 28.9R), neutral
  on M5. H1/H4 product +11.9R / +17.0R on W3 from extra low-score trades
  (H1 PF 1.98 -> 1.75, DD doubles): hypothesis only.
- Code review (high) before the runs: 6 findings fixed, 1 recorded
  (engine_config_fingerprint omits the switch under "pair", so live rows keep
  their fingerprint).

Delivery (books untouched): alerts lead with the grade and print the two raw
numbers in words (main.plain_words: "Direction: strong buy · Reliability: good
· timeframes agree", cut-offs = the grade table's own) on Telegram, /status,
the CLI and the dashboard card (plain_words in the snapshot); "MTF" label
replaced by "Other timeframes"; guides updated. Suite 566 passed.

Evidence: backtest/research/conviction_campaign_2026-09-27.md

docs/beginner_guide.html

@@ -71,8 +71,9 @@
 <h2>3 · Reading a bot message</h2>
 <p>Here is a typical signal, with plain-English notes below it:</p>
 <div class="signal-box">🔍 XAU/USD Signal Analysis  (H1)          ← gold, on the 1-hour chart
-🟢 BUY   Grade: A  |  64% confidence      ← what to do + how good the setup looks
-✅ MTF aligned                            ← bigger and smaller charts agree
+🟢 Grade A · BUY · XAU/USD · H1  🥇       ← how good the setup is + what to do
+📐 Direction: strong buy · Reliability:
+   good · timeframes agree                ← the bot's two numbers, in words
 📋 Indicators …                           ← the bot's 9 checks (you can skip this part)
 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
 🚀 TRADE SETUP                            ← ↓ THIS is the part you act on ↓
@@ -89,7 +90,8 @@
    58% winners, avg +0.19R per trade      ← what this kind of signal did in the backtests</div>
 <ul>
 <li><b>Grade (A+, A, B, C):</b> the bot's own mark for how clean the setup is. A+ is best. It never sends anything worse than C.</li>
-<li><b>Confidence and the indicator list:</b> extra detail for curious people. You don't need to understand it to trade the signal.</li>
+<li><b>Direction and reliability:</b> plain words for the bot's two internal numbers. Direction says how strongly the checks lean one way (very strong, strong, clear, weak). Reliability says how much the bot trusts that reading (high, good, fair, low). "Timeframes agree" means the bigger and smaller charts point the same way.</li>
+<li><b>The indicator list:</b> extra detail for curious people. You don't need to understand it to trade the signal.</li>
 <li><b>⚠️ Warning lines:</b> things the bot noticed, like high volatility. They are "be aware," not "don't trade."</li>
 <li><b>🌪 Violent-move watch:</b> now and then the bot adds a line saying the next hour could produce very big candles — usually because an important American economic number is about to come out, or the market is in an hour that is historically wild, or the price has stretched a long way from normal. It is only a "hold on tight" note. It does not change the signal, and it is not a reason to close or move your stop loss early — the bot was tested doing exactly that and it lost money. Your stop loss is already your protection; leave it where it is.</li>
 <li><b>📰 News line:</b> a short plain-English note on what is moving the gold price right now and why, written from the last few hours of headlines. It is background information, not a reason to trade.</li>