violent-move watch: display-only warning line + owner heads-up (dark by default)

New violent_watch.py assesses each scan from the cached Forex Factory week events, the
UTC clock and the report's own indicator states, and stamps SignalReport.watch_line
post-hoc (telegram alerts, CLI, dashboard). A standalone heads-up goes to the owner on
the fastest scanned timeframe when the level is "hot", once per UTC hour per trigger
set, capped per day. Config block `violent_watch` (enabled False, alert_line, headsup,
max_headsup_per_day, headsup_min_level); env VIOLENT_WATCH_ENABLED.

Rule chosen from a 3-year bar-by-bar sweep (backtest/research/watch_rule_eval.py,
recorded in sizing_campaign_2026-09.md): hot = high-impact USD release within 30 min
(before or after) OR a hot clock slot (weekday 12-14 UTC, 01 UTC, Sunday 22-23 UTC)
with at least one price-extreme reading (outside Bollinger bands, RSI <30/>=70, outside
Keltner); ~8.6% of bars, next-bar odds 3-5x normal, ~4 hot hours/day. watch = clock
slot alone or two price-extreme readings (~2x). Context readings (ADX rising, extreme
volatility, transitioning, MACD acceleration) are phrases only - letting them raise the
level flagged 27% of bars at ~2x and would have sent ~13 heads-ups/day (rejected).
Direction sentence: DOWN when bearish readings dominate (70-78% on both TFs), UP on M5
only. Never a gate or exit: every open-trade protection tested lost money.

Test-locked out of analyze_from_dataframes / engine / backtester. Module 30 (18 tests).
Suite: 453 passed. Guide PDFs not rebuilt.

Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01RWV2yLt3YXHHGVYHSQU2EE

docs/beginner_guide.html

@@ -86,6 +86,7 @@
 <li><b>Grade (A+, A, B, C):</b> the bot's own mark for how clean the setup is. A+ is best. It never sends anything worse than C.</li>
 <li><b>Confidence and the indicator list:</b> extra detail for curious people. You don't need to understand it to trade the signal.</li>
 <li><b>⚠️ Warning lines:</b> things the bot noticed, like high volatility. They are "be aware," not "don't trade."</li>
+<li><b>🌪 Violent-move watch:</b> now and then the bot adds a line saying the next hour could produce very big candles — usually because an important American economic number is about to come out, or the market is in an hour that is historically wild, or the price has stretched a long way from normal. It is only a "hold on tight" note. It does not change the signal, and it is not a reason to close or move your stop loss early — the bot was tested doing exactly that and it lost money. Your stop loss is already your protection; leave it where it is.</li>
 <li><b>📰 News line:</b> a short plain-English note on what is moving the gold price right now and why, written from the last few hours of headlines. It is background information, not a reason to trade.</li>
 <li><b>The trade setup at the bottom is the only part you must act on.</b></li>
 </ul>

docs/user_guide.html

@@ -69,6 +69,7 @@
 <tr><td><b>Score / confidence</b></td><td>The regime-weighted composite of all nine indicators. Bigger absolute score = stronger consensus.</td></tr>
 <tr><td><b>MTF aligned</b></td><td>The two confirmation timeframes agree with the trade direction. Signals without alignment are filtered out on M5.</td></tr>
 <tr><td><b>Warnings ⚠️</b></td><td>Context, not veto. Backtesting shows warned trades perform about the same — strong momentum often triggers warnings.</td></tr>
+<tr><td><b>Violent-move watch 🌪</b></td><td>An occasional extra line saying the next hour looks unusually likely to produce a very large candle — because a high-impact US release is due (or just landed), because the clock is in a historically wild slot, or because price is stretched outside its bands. It is a heads-up about <i>volatility</i>, not a direction call, and it <b>never</b> changes the signal, the grade or the trade setup — the same alert would be sent without it. Do not close or tighten an open trade because of it: every such protective action was tested over three years and lost money. Your stop is the protection.</td></tr>
 <tr><td><b>Market context 📰</b></td><td>An AI-written note in plain English on what is moving the gold price right now, why it matters, and the next report to watch. It is built only from headlines published in the last 4 hours that lean one way (neutral items are dropped) plus today's high-impact releases. Informational only — it never blocks or grades a signal.</td></tr>
 <tr><td><b>SL / TP1 / RR</b></td><td>Stop loss sits behind the nearest swing level with an ATR buffer. TP1 is the nearest opposing level. <b>1R</b> = the entry-to-SL distance = the amount you risk.</td></tr>
 <tr><td><b>Trail plan 🔄</b></td><td>The real exit. Once price moves +0.6R in your favor, move the stop to trail 0.75R behind the best price and update it at each candle close. <b>TP1 is advisory — let winners run.</b></td></tr>