Research: Dukascopy real-spread study + Oanda/TD bar-divergence study
Scripts + summary CSVs for the 2026-07-24 studies (real XAU spread ~$0.65 tradable hours; Oanda vs TD bars diverge ~11% of ATR with 10% direction flips). Large raw data files (parquet, per-boundary samples) gitignored. Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Mc7XKYyPySVXiUpcN82QEK
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Harwinder Sekhon
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"""
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Oanda vs Twelve Data bar-divergence study — XAU/USD M15, 12 months.
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====================================================================
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Compares the mid-price OHLC bars the signal engine would see from each
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provider over the same window. Purpose: quantify whether migrating the
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signal feed from Twelve Data to Oanda is a formality (bars ~identical)
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or a recalibration (bars differ at a scale that moves indicators).
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Inputs:
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--td Twelve Data parquet (raw bars from backtest/cache/)
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--oanda Oanda parquet (from fetch_oanda_m5.py / fetch_oanda_m15.py)
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--start / --end analysis window (UTC dates)
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Outputs:
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printed report
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backtest/research/oanda_td_divergence_by_hour.csv
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backtest/research/oanda_td_bar_diffs.parquet (per-bar diffs, common index)
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"""
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import argparse
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from pathlib import Path
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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RESEARCH_DIR = Path(__file__).parent
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PIP = 0.10 # XAU pip in $
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def wilder_atr(df: pd.DataFrame, period: int = 14) -> pd.Series:
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hl = df["High"] - df["Low"]
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hc = (df["High"] - df["Close"].shift(1)).abs()
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lc = (df["Low"] - df["Close"].shift(1)).abs()
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tr = pd.concat([hl, hc, lc], axis=1).max(axis=1)
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return tr.ewm(alpha=1.0 / period, adjust=False).mean()
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def pct_stats(s: pd.Series) -> dict:
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a = s.abs()
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return {
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"mean": a.mean(), "median": a.median(),
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"p90": a.quantile(0.90), "p95": a.quantile(0.95),
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"p99": a.quantile(0.99), "max": a.max(),
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"bias(mean signed)": s.mean(),
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}
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def fmt_stats(name: str, s: pd.Series) -> str:
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st = pct_stats(s)
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return (f" {name:<6} mean ${st['mean']:.3f} med ${st['median']:.3f} "
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f"p95 ${st['p95']:.3f} p99 ${st['p99']:.3f} max ${st['max']:.2f} "
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f"bias {st['bias(mean signed)']:+.4f}")
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def main():
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ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
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ap.add_argument("--td", default=str(RESEARCH_DIR.parent / "cache" /
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"XAU_USD_15min_20240522_20260723.parquet"))
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ap.add_argument("--oanda", default=str(RESEARCH_DIR /
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"oanda_xau_m15_20250701_now.parquet"))
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ap.add_argument("--start", default="2025-07-24")
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ap.add_argument("--end", default="2026-07-23")
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args = ap.parse_args()
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td = pd.read_parquet(args.td)
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oa = pd.read_parquet(args.oanda)
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start = pd.Timestamp(args.start, tz="UTC")
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end = pd.Timestamp(args.end, tz="UTC") + pd.Timedelta(days=1)
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start = max(start, td.index[0], oa.index[0])
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end = min(end, td.index[-1], oa.index[-1])
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td = td.loc[(td.index >= start) & (td.index <= end)]
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oa = oa.loc[(oa.index >= start) & (oa.index <= end)]
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print("=" * 78)
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print("OANDA vs TWELVE DATA — XAU/USD M15 bar divergence")
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print(f"Window: {start} -> {end} ({(end - start).days} days)")
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print("=" * 78)
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# ── Coverage ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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common = td.index.intersection(oa.index)
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td_only = td.index.difference(oa.index)
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oa_only = oa.index.difference(td.index)
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print(f"\nCOVERAGE")
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print(f" Twelve Data bars : {len(td):>7,}")
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print(f" Oanda bars : {len(oa):>7,}")
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print(f" common : {len(common):>7,}")
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print(f" TD-only : {len(td_only):>7,} "
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f"({100 * len(td_only) / max(len(td), 1):.2f}% of TD)")
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print(f" Oanda-only : {len(oa_only):>7,} "
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f"({100 * len(oa_only) / max(len(oa), 1):.2f}% of Oanda)")
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for label, idx in (("TD-only", td_only), ("Oanda-only", oa_only)):
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if len(idx):
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by_date = pd.Series(1, index=idx).groupby(idx.date).sum()
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top = by_date.sort_values(ascending=False).head(8)
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print(f" {label} bars cluster on: "
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+ ", ".join(f"{d} ({n})" for d, n in top.items()))
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by_hour = pd.Series(1, index=idx).groupby(idx.hour).sum()
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top_h = by_hour.sort_values(ascending=False).head(6)
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print(f" {label} by UTC hour: "
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+ ", ".join(f"{h:02d}h ({n})" for h, n in top_h.items()))
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t = td.loc[common]
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o = oa.loc[common]
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# ── Scale references ─────────────────────────────────────────────
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atr = wilder_atr(t).dropna()
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mean_price = t["Close"].mean()
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print(f"\nSCALE REFERENCES (Twelve Data feed)")
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print(f" mean close : ${mean_price:,.2f}")
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print(f" mean bar range : ${(t['High'] - t['Low']).mean():.3f}")
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print(f" mean ATR14 : ${atr.mean():.3f} median ${atr.median():.3f}")
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# ── Per-field diffs (TD − Oanda mid) ─────────────────────────────
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print(f"\nPER-BAR DIFFS (TD − Oanda, $; pip = $0.10)")
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diffs = {}
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for col in ("Open", "High", "Low", "Close"):
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d = t[col] - o[col]
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diffs[col] = d
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print(fmt_stats(col, d))
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dclose = diffs["Close"].abs()
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print(f"\n |ΔClose| as % of mean ATR14 : "
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f"mean {100 * dclose.mean() / atr.mean():.1f}% "
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f"p95 {100 * dclose.quantile(0.95) / atr.mean():.1f}%")
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print(f"\nTHRESHOLD EXCEEDANCE (|ΔClose|)")
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for thr in (0.10, 0.30, 0.65, 1.00, 2.00, 5.00):
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pct = 100 * (dclose > thr).mean()
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print(f" > ${thr:<5.2f}: {pct:6.2f}% of bars ({(dclose > thr).sum():,})")
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# ── Direction / return agreement ─────────────────────────────────
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t_ret = t["Close"].pct_change()
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o_ret = o["Close"].pct_change()
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# only consecutive common bars (gap = one M15 step)
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step_ok = pd.Series(common, index=common).diff().eq(pd.Timedelta(minutes=15))
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tr, orr = t_ret[step_ok], o_ret[step_ok]
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corr = tr.corr(orr)
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t_dir = np.sign(t["Close"] - t["Open"])
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o_dir = np.sign(o["Close"] - o["Open"])
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both_nonflat = (t_dir != 0) & (o_dir != 0)
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dir_agree = 100 * (t_dir[both_nonflat] == o_dir[both_nonflat]).mean()
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print(f"\nAGREEMENT")
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print(f" close-return correlation (consecutive bars): {corr:.5f} "
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f"(n={step_ok.sum():,})")
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print(f" bar direction (sign of close−open) agree : {dir_agree:.2f}%")
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# ── By-hour breakdown ────────────────────────────────────────────
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hours = common.hour
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rows = []
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for h in range(24):
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m = hours == h
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if not m.any():
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continue
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row = {"hour_utc": h, "bars": int(m.sum()),
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"mean_abs_dclose": dclose[m].mean(),
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"p95_abs_dclose": dclose[m].quantile(0.95),
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"mean_abs_dhigh": diffs["High"][m].abs().mean(),
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"mean_abs_dlow": diffs["Low"][m].abs().mean()}
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if "bid_c" in o.columns:
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row["oanda_median_spread"] = (
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(o["ask_c"] - o["bid_c"])[m].median())
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rows.append(row)
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by_hour = pd.DataFrame(rows)
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out_hour = RESEARCH_DIR / "oanda_td_divergence_by_hour.csv"
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by_hour.to_csv(out_hour, index=False, float_format="%.4f")
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print(f"\nBY UTC HOUR (written to {out_hour.name})")
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print(by_hour.to_string(index=False,
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float_format=lambda x: f"{x:.3f}"))
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# ── By-month drift ───────────────────────────────────────────────
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print(f"\nBY MONTH (mean |ΔClose|, $)")
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by_month = dclose.groupby(common.to_period("M")).mean()
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for p, v in by_month.items():
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print(f" {p}: {v:.3f}")
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# ── Oanda real spread (bonus, ties to Dukascopy study) ───────────
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if "bid_c" in o.columns:
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spread = o["ask_c"] - o["bid_c"]
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liquid = ~o.index.hour.isin([21, 22, 23, 0])
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print(f"\nOANDA REAL SPREAD (close bid/ask, $)")
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print(f" all bars : median {spread.median():.3f} "
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f"p25 {spread.quantile(0.25):.3f} p75 {spread.quantile(0.75):.3f}")
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print(f" liquid hours : median {spread[liquid].median():.3f}")
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print(f" 21-00 UTC : median {spread[~liquid].median():.3f}")
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# ── Persist per-bar diffs ────────────────────────────────────────
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out = pd.DataFrame({
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"td_close": t["Close"], "oa_close": o["Close"],
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"d_open": diffs["Open"], "d_high": diffs["High"],
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"d_low": diffs["Low"], "d_close": diffs["Close"],
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})
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out_path = RESEARCH_DIR / "oanda_td_bar_diffs.parquet"
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out.to_parquet(out_path)
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print(f"\nPer-bar diffs written to {out_path}")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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