Commit Graph

17 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Harwinder Sekhon 11ff49befb Remove dead code: legacy config fields, unused helpers/imports, stray files
- Delete test_ws_dual.py (standalone probe, unused) and a stale tracked log
- config.py: drop MarketSession enum, is_jpy_pair, candle_buffer_seconds,
  and the never-read legacy SignalConfig/XauStrategyConfig fields
- data_provider.py: drop uncalled get_latest_price/get_spread_estimate
- Remove unused imports (engine, telegram_bot, main, news_engine)
- test_all.py: drop/trim the corresponding defaults assertions (199 tests)
- CLAUDE.md updated to match

Zero behavior change: no production code read any removed field
(verified reference-by-reference); suite green at 199/199.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 14:06:55 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 44cadf7a9f Data provider: key from config.json/env, provider registry, drop hardcoded key
Resolves the Twelve Data API key through app_config.provider_api_key()
(env → config.json → no default) instead of a hardcoded field on
PlatformConfig. Adds data_provider.PROVIDER_REGISTRY + make_data_provider()
so signal_aggregator and the backtester build the active provider through
one seam; telegram_bot.py gets the same one-line WS-key fix now (per Task 4's
already-planned edit for that line) so the suite doesn't crash on import
between this commit and Task 4's full wiring pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 13:10:58 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon f118ade3cf Audit fixes: cache boundary staleness, 6e session bypass, GPU engine parity
Fixes all high+medium findings from the 2026-07-16 full-codebase audit.

High:
- data_provider: cache now rejects snapshots missing the latest closed
  bar (_has_latest_closed_bar, weekend-exempt). The wall-clock TTL served
  mid-candle snapshots at the next boundary, so live M15/H1 scans ran one
  full bar behind and the bar-close session check evaluated the wrong hour.
- signal_aggregator: gate 6e (SELL quality) only acts on actionable
  grades. It was re-grading session-blocked F reports to D, which
  re-opened the M5 pullback path (entry check: quality != "F") on
  session-blocked bars.
- gpu_backtest: port the live EMA-ribbon compression/expansion logic
  (+10 conf on expansion) into the GPU engine. Its absence diverged
  composite score/conf on 7-9% of bars and flipped signals on ~0.2%.

Medium:
- gpu_backtest: Bollinger precompute uses the exact pandas rolling calls
  (cumsum E[x2]-E[x]2 lost precision at gold price levels; bb_position
  error up to 7.6e-3 crossed signal thresholds, worst during squeezes).
- gpu_backtest: --confirm-tfs defaults to the pair factory's live
  confirmation map instead of a hardcoded 1h,4h.
- gpu_backtest: entries re-anchor to the first RAW bar after the signal
  bar, so >10-sigma spike bars dropped by cleaning are no longer skipped
  at entry (favorable bias).
- gpu_backtest: per-TF warmup pad — D1 confirms get >=210 bars at window
  start (62-day pad gave ~61 bars: no EMA200, unlike live).
- data_provider: thread-safety locks for cache + throttle (shared
  provider across the bot's 4-thread pool); outlier filter keeps the
  snap-back bar after a spike instead of punching a two-bar hole.
- telegram_bot: alert fingerprint gains a risk-relative entry bucket
  (materially-moved setups re-alert) and is committed only after a
  successful send (failed sends no longer consume the alert for 1h).
- engine: disabled_indicators=["macd"] now removes the MACD pillar from
  scoring (histogram still computed for divergence).

Verification: test_all.py 187/187 (new Module 11: 8 audit-fix
regressions incl. a live-vs-GPU parity sweep with ribbon coverage);
real-data parity sweep over 813 slices of 14mo XAU M15: zero divergence
(pre-fix: 7-9% of bars diverged); both original bug repros no longer
reproduce; cached end-to-end backtest run passes with the live confirm
map. Books shift slightly vs pre-fix runs — comparability note added to
CLAUDE.md; pinned tuned numbers need re-validation under the fixed
backtester.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-16 10:24:39 -04:00
harwinder 6a96ed6006 Fix live/backtest parity, SELL-side losses, and indicator repairs (+42% total R)
Live pipeline:
- Drop still-forming candle before analysis (signals no longer repaint)
- Direction-aware MTF agreement + opposition gate (no trade against 2-of-3 TF consensus)
- SELL volatility gate: block shorts in low/normal vol regimes (config sell_vol_regimes)
- Divergence: 40-bar lookback, price/indicator swings must align within ±2 bars
  (fired on 0.5% of trades before, 29% after), trending weight 2.0→1.0
- RSI regime_aware by default; transitioning regime only signals at extremes
- ADX ±DM tie no longer nudges bearish; TP2 clamped beyond TP1

Backtester realism:
- Charge $0.30 round-trip spread (--spread), gap-through SL/TP fills at bar open
- Resolve trades on RAW price path (cache stores raw bars, cleaning runs on load)
- Weekend/session filters use bar-close decision time to match live wall clock

Validated per-step on M15 2025-03-30→2026-05-31 under identical pricing:
+46.9R → +66.8R, win rate 69.9% → 73.0%, SELL side -2.3R → +9.6R.
Tested-and-reverted: ROC weight removal (-13R), BB fade suppression (-11.6R),
candlestick de-weight (-2R) — composite thresholds are co-tuned with weight mass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 21:32:46 -04:00
harwinder b61818330b Fix weekend filter: use precise forex market hours (Fri 22:00–Sun 22:00 UTC)
The old `weekday() >= 5` check blocked all of Sunday, but the forex
market reopens Sunday 22:00 UTC (Sydney open). Now uses proper time-based
check so the bot fetches data and generates signals on Sunday evening.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 19:23:21 -04:00
harwinder 8ed6454ea5 Refocus on XAU/USD: add momentum indicators, tune TP, exhaustion block
Strip EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY pairs and strategies from entire codebase.
Add 3 new scored indicators (ROC, Keltner/TTM Squeeze, ADX slope) and
enable MACD-as-pillar + divergence detection for early trend entry.
Introduce "transitioning" regime (ADX < 25, slope > 3.0) to catch trend
births before ADX confirms. Gold-specific composite weights per regime.

Tune TP multipliers: quality-tiered scaling (A+/A get 1.5-2.0x ATR via
XAU ATR method, B/C use swing-level targeting). Backtest: +24R total,
65% WR, PF 1.12 over 365 days.

Add momentum-confirmed exhaustion block: hard-reject trades when 2+
static exhaustion signals fire AND ROC/MACD confirm fading momentum.
Prevents late trend entries without killing strong trend trades.

Telegram: simplify buttons to timeframe-only labels, add "Scan All TFs"
multi-timeframe summary, add /scan command, fix BB/KC level breach keys,
fix price formatting (.2f for gold), fix deprecated asyncio call, fix
"1 pairs" grammar and 60s/30s dashboard refresh mismatch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 10:51:51 -04:00
harwinder bf9609708c Fix duplicate-index crash in data validation, add Telegram flood control
- Move index dedup before OHLC consistency fix in _validate_and_clean
  to prevent crash when df.loc[dup_idx] returns Series instead of scalar
- Add global flood backoff: detect RetryAfter, pause all sends/edits
  until ban expires instead of retrying and escalating the ban
- Stop dashboard edit-fail → new-message spam cascade: track consecutive
  failures, only resend after 3 failed edits
- Increase dashboard refresh from 5s to 30s, min send interval to 1.5s
- Add comprehensive QA test suite (140 tests across all 7 modules)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 13:04:28 -04:00
harwinder 1e5047e20f Backtest tuning, data freshness guard, Telegram improvements
- Drop USD/JPY from scan pairs (zero signals across all timeframes)
- Disable divergence indicator (zero impact in 14-config lab test)
- Parallelize evaluate.py with ProcessPoolExecutor (16 cores)
- Add --pair CLI filter to evaluate.py for single-pair backtests
- Add data freshness guard: stale cache auto-invalidated, primary TF
  stale data suppresses signals to prevent trading on old data
- Add /cache command: shows fetch age and last bar per pair/TF
- Add /clearcache command: wipes in-memory cache for fresh API fetch
- Remove BB from WebSocket breach alerts (keep structural levels only)
- Show live prices only for WS-monitored pairs (EUR/USD, XAU/USD)
- Replace arrow emojis with text tags in indicator lines

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-12 22:56:55 -04:00
harwinder dc9c76a716 Pro tier upgrade: quant rearchitect + WebSocket level-breach monitor
- Restore XAU/USD (Pro plan), drop USD/CAD, raise rate limit to 55/min
- Reduce signal engine to 4 uncorrelated pillars (EMA, RSI, BB, Candlestick)
  with regime-adaptive weights (trending boosts EMA, ranging boosts RSI+BB)
- Add structure-based S/R (swing highs/lows) for trade setup targeting
- Fix confidence death spiral: all adjustments now additive, not multiplicative
- Dynamic R:R trade setup: SL behind swing level, TP at next structure level,
  reject if R:R < 1.5
- Fix news engine for all 4 pairs (was hardcoded to USDJPY)
- Add WebSocket monitor: streams live ticks, triggers M15 scan on level breach
  with 5-min cooldown per pair — catches breakouts between candle boundaries
- Add correlation filter (EUR/USD+GBP/USD, XAU/USD+USD/JPY exposure warnings)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 16:33:23 -04:00
harwinder b3e0da7455 Add 4-pair candle-boundary auto-scanner (free tier safe)
Expand from 2 to 4 pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, XAU/USD) with
automatic scanning at M15 and H1 candle close boundaries. Scheduler
staggers H1 by 60s to stay within 8 credits/min; daily budget is
480 of 800 allowed. Cache TTL is now candle-duration-aware so cross-TF
confirmation data is reused without extra API calls. Spread estimate
uses primary-TF data instead of fetching M5 separately.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 15:30:11 -04:00
Harwinder 037dec643e Add EUR/USD support and 4-button Telegram scanner
Add EURUSD pair with dynamic pair info lookup. Telegram bot now shows
4 scan buttons: EUR/USD 15M, EUR/USD 1H, USD/JPY 15M, USD/JPY 1H.
Each indicator displays directional arrows in the message output.
Price formatting adapts per pair (5dp for EUR, 3dp for JPY).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 23:49:36 -04:00
Harwinder 3a09dfd62f Strip backtesting, rebalance indicator weights toward leading signals
Remove backtest.py, backtest_gpu.py, metrics.py, local CSV data,
Dukascopy loader, and all backtest CLI modes from main.py. Rebalance
engine weights: leading indicators (divergence, RSI, stochastic, BB)
now carry 66% of signal weight vs 34% for lagging (EMA, MACD). Add
ws_twelvedata.py for live tick streaming. Drop pyarrow and tqdm deps.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 23:40:15 -04:00
Harwinder e30535f5e9 GPU backtester, optimised weights, local CSV data pipeline
## What changed

### backtest_gpu.py (new — ~1,300 lines)
Standalone GPU-accelerated backtester completely separate from backtest.py.
Computes all indicator series in one vectorised O(N) pass over the full price
history, then replays positions with a sequential state machine.

Key design:
- VectorIndicators: pandas ewm/rolling (C-optimised) for all 7 indicators
- CuPy GPU backend with automatic NumPy fallback (no hard dependency)
- Two-phase API: prepare_arrays() once, score_and_run() many times
- --optimize flag: 36-combo weight sweep (1 baseline + 7 ablations + 28
  multiplier runs) — calls prepare_arrays() once, replays all combos in seconds
- Full CLI: --tf, --local, --start/--end, --regime-filter, --regime-tf,
  --session-filter, --optimize, --journal, --journal-csv

O(N) vs O(N^2): backtest.py recomputes all indicators per bar (O(N^2));
backtest_gpu.py computes each indicator series once and reads bar T in O(1).
On 100,000 H1 bars: ~4 seconds vs >10 minutes.

### data_provider.py
Added load_local_csv() method — reads MetaTrader tab-delimited CSV exports
from market_data/ directory. Format: Time|Open|High|Low|Close|Volume|Spread
(spread column dropped on load, timestamps localised to UTC). Applies the same
_validate_and_clean() pipeline as the Twelve Data path. LOCAL_CSV_MAP maps
each Timeframe enum to its filename.

market_data/ files added (MetaTrader exports, UTC):
  USDJPY_M15.csv  100,000 bars  2022-05-04 to 2026-05-08
  USDJPY_H1.csv   100,000 bars  2010-04-23 to 2026-05-08
  USDJPY_H4.csv    25,855 bars  2010-04-22 to 2026-05-08
  USDJPY_D1.csv     5,020 bars  2010-04-22 to 2026-05-08

16 years of H1/H4/D1 vs ~6 weeks of H1 on Twelve Data free plan. Use --local
for all backtests; Twelve Data reserved for live signal feed.

### engine.py — optimised indicator weights
36-combo sweep on H4 2022-2026 found MACD and EMA trend are the dominant
signals; RSI and Bollinger are net drag on this trending pair.

Old → new weights:
  ema_trend:  1.2 → 3.6  (×3 — strongest directional signal)
  macd:       1.1 → 3.3  (×3 — ablating it is the single worst move: -42%)
  stochastic: 0.8 → 1.6  (×2 — clean timing, 40% WR at this level)
  adx:        1.0 → 0.5  (÷2 — partially redundant with EMA stack)
  ichimoku:   1.1 → 0.55 (÷2 — lags too much at H4, hurts in ranging)
  rsi:        0.3 → 0.0  (ablated — net drag across all test windows)
  bollinger:  0.9 → 0.0  (ablated — counter-trend noise on trending pair)

RSI and Bollinger are still computed and displayed in live output for
reference; weight=0 means they contribute nothing to the composite score.

Combined result vs baseline (H4 2022-2026, local data):
  Return:   +7.12% → +21.30%  (+14.2pp)
  Max DD:   -9.05% → -8.52%   (tighter — gains did not come at expense of risk)
  Sharpe:    0.23  →  0.47    (2x improvement)
  Sortino:   1.38  →  1.91
  Win Rate: 36.3%  → 38.1%

### backtest.py
Added 16-thread CPU parallelism for signal pre-computation via
ThreadPoolExecutor. _precompute_all_signals() dispatches each bar to a worker;
pandas/NumPy C extensions release the GIL enabling true parallel execution.
Results are collected and replayed in the main loop, replacing the per-bar
recompute. Also added --regime-tf CLI flag so regime filter timeframe can be
specified independently of the primary TF.

### signal_aggregator.py
EMA200 distance gate: confidence *= 0.55 when price is within 0.5% of EMA200
(chop zone) or beyond 1.5% (overextended). Sweet spot is 0.5-1.5% from EMA200
where trending momentum is cleanest. Strongest single filter found: lifted
cumulative return +13.88% to +35.50% in ablation window.

### ENGINE_LOGIC.md (new)
Full reference document covering: architecture, data pipeline, all indicator
logic, composite scoring formula, optimised weights with rationale, regime
classification, EMA200 gate, MTF alignment, grade system, backtesting results,
filter catalogue, and configuration reference.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 22:12:43 -04:00
Harwinder dcd98fffa2 Swap raw requests for Twelve Data Python SDK
data_provider now uses TDClient.time_series().as_pandas() instead of
hand-rolled REST calls. Throttle, validation, and parquet caching are
unchanged. Adds twelvedata>=1.2.0 to requirements.txt.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 18:38:38 -04:00
Harwinder 636f0304ae Refocus on USD/JPY and add walk-forward backtester with regime filter
- Strip multi-pair plumbing; drop synthetic-data fallback
- Add BacktestConfig + walk-forward replay through the live signal pipeline
- Add metrics module (PF, Sharpe, Sortino, max DD, trade journal)
- Add parallel grid optimizer with disk parquet cache
- Add H4 ADX regime gate (--regime-filter, --regime-min-adx) — cuts chop
  losses ~84% in 2023 H1 while preserving trend edge

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:15:41 -04:00
harry e4138ee60a Fixed code 2026-05-04 14:29:32 +00:00
harry 008c21f9c3 Add data_provider.py 2026-05-04 04:08:35 +00:00