Owner question: can score and confidence be combined into one number that is
easier to understand and for the system to decide on?
Research (pre-registered, nothing ships to the signal path):
- signals.grading_mode: "pair" (default, the shipped two-floor rule, byte-
identical: all five reference MD5s reproduce on both scripts), "min"
(min(|score|, 0.6*conf)), "product" (|score|*conf/100); thresholds fixed from
the control's corner points, no tuning. Helpers _final_signal_and_grade /
_transitioning_boost / conviction / CONVICTION_THRESHOLDS in signal_aggregator;
mirrored in K2 (GRADING_MODE_CODES, PF_conv_* packed from the live module);
twin refuses other values; M15 OOS MD5 equal on both scripts for both modes.
- Verdict: FAILED on M5 and M15. K-MIN moves 43-54 trades for -1.2R / -2.9R
(clauses a,b,e / a,b,d); K-PROD -29R on M15 (PF 1.29, W3 DD 28.9R), neutral
on M5. H1/H4 product +11.9R / +17.0R on W3 from extra low-score trades
(H1 PF 1.98 -> 1.75, DD doubles): hypothesis only.
- Code review (high) before the runs: 6 findings fixed, 1 recorded
(engine_config_fingerprint omits the switch under "pair", so live rows keep
their fingerprint).
Delivery (books untouched): alerts lead with the grade and print the two raw
numbers in words (main.plain_words: "Direction: strong buy · Reliability: good
· timeframes agree", cut-offs = the grade table's own) on Telegram, /status,
the CLI and the dashboard card (plain_words in the snapshot); "MTF" label
replaced by "Other timeframes"; guides updated. Suite 566 passed.
Evidence: backtest/research/conviction_campaign_2026-09-27.md
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Live signals.db review (2026-09-04 → 09-25, 100 unique setups replayed on the
scans' stored candles): the stop-hunt claim is refuted (71% of stop-outs ran
≥ 1R past the stop, the same as the books' 70–72%); −25.1R of the −37.8R raw
live book were consecutive-bar re-entries the backtester's 5-bar cooldown never
takes; the cooldown view sits at the 3rd–5th percentile of the books' three-week
windows.
Delivery (book-neutral):
- telegram_bot: 5-bar alert cooldown per timeframe (_ALERT_COOLDOWN_BARS =
backtest.cooldown_bars); setup block prints the trail first as the tested
exit, TP1/TP2 as guides with their R, "Planned TP1 RR", and one validated-book
line per setup class (agent_panel_base_rates.json); the informational 100-pip
TP line is removed (owner request).
- AI block rewritten for a new trader: "AI check: the odds look better than /
worse than / about usual", the chance "in 100" against the usual odds, one
reason for and one against, no verdict word or confidence figure; rendered
whenever the verdict carries a probability. agent_panel: persona prompts ban
trading jargon (PANEL_PROMPT_VERSION v2.1-2026-09-26); the macro-source
verdict now carries its persona's p_win (every live v2 row had
panel_probability NULL). Dashboard and guides mirror the wording.
- telegram_bot: level-breach rescans skip the settlement-pause window (the
20:45 M15 bar was re-logged at 22:01/22:06/22:11 every evening).
Signal (pre-registered rule-1 campaign, CUDA twin paired with gpu_backtest.py):
- M15 grade-A SELLs blocked (sell_min_quality ["A+","B"], M15 override 6):
W2 813/+154.15R PF 1.53 vs 931/+146.14R PF 1.43, OOS +68.5 vs +60.67,
W3 max DD 20.9 vs 19.3R. PASSED a–f.
- Printed target 1 floored at 1R in every generator (signals.tp_print_floor_rr),
applied AFTER the min-RR and spread gates so no trade changes; mirrored in
cuda_signal_kernels.py K2. Label-only re-pin of all four timeframes (only
tp1/rr_planned columns move). A floor applied before the gate cost −24.6R and
was rejected.
- FAILED: M15 min_rr_ratio 1.0 (trade-identical, −2.0R). Owner's call: M5
tp_floor_rr 1.0 (+48.9R W2, max DD 10.1 → 15.9R), not shipped.
New pins: M5 W2 e599c8a8…, M15 W2 5b65ecf6…, M15 OOS 09b8a8e7…, H1 W3
a44fd19b…, H4 W3 f3587bae…; twin and reference MD5s equal on every window.
Base-rate table rebuilt from the new pins. Suite 558 passed.
Evidence: backtest/research/rr_and_sell_campaign_2026-09-26.md (plus the
2026-09-18 loss-anatomy and wrong-direction reports it builds on).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A NEUTRAL vote (value 0) and an absent divergence/candlestick entry both
drew no bar, so RSI, Div and Cndl looked missing on the live page. The
engine computes them on every scan; divergence and candlestick only exist
when a pattern is found (by design, "no opinion"). The chart now draws a
grey dot on the zero line for a neutral vote and a faint "no pattern" tag
for an absent pattern indicator; rows hover as a whole. Display-only,
signal code and books untouched. Suite 554/554.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
One card per timeframe (M5/M15/H1/H4) in a Bootstrap column grid, above a
direction board that charts every timeframe's score as a diverging bar.
Each card carries its own indicator-vote chart, and the newswire gets a
headline-tone bar. Bootstrap Icons and the hand-rolled CSS gauges are gone;
dashboard.css is now the token set plus the app-specific pieces only.
Chart marks use a diverging pair validated on this surface (#0d9f7a /
#e8503a: lightness band, chroma floor, colour-vision separation, contrast).
Lighter steps of the same two hues carry the colour where it has to work as
text, and direction never travels as colour alone -- an arrow icon and the
word ride with it.
Behaviour is unchanged: same snapshot.json / news.json contract, the same
coordinated refresh loop (boundary poll, 60 s fallback, 15 s retry,
in-flight guard, stale-snapshot guard), per-timeframe change detection,
modal state preservation, HTML escaping, the news_summary.php contract and
the warming / scan-failed / weekend states. Nothing on the signal path is
touched, so no book moves.
Verified headlessly against a fixture replayed through the real signal code
(wide / laptop / tablet / mobile, both dialogs, every degraded state): no
console errors, html-validate clean.
Suite 553 -- the old static-UI test splits into one that pins the CDN stack
and one that pins a card and a chart per timeframe against
dashboard_publisher.DASHBOARD_TFS.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Agent panel v2: personas return p_win anchored to the book base rates with a
code-computed decision context; verdict = equal-weight mean (verdict_source
"mean"); only the macro persona runs live (agent_panel.personas ["macro"]);
prompt version and exact payloads logged; offline replay harness
scripts/panel_replay.py; base-rate table agent_panel_base_rates.json
(scripts/build_panel_base_rates.py). Backtester `strategy` column now carries
the generator's own stamp (label-only; five reference books re-pinned, all
62 other columns identical).
News corpus (after evaluating the owner's ML-NEWS scikit model against
DeepSeek: golden set 39/78 vs 78/78, out-of-sample agreement 64% against a
90% self-agreement ceiling; verdict: fallback only, not a replacement):
- NewsSentiment.xau_score + archive column xau_score keep DeepSeek's gold
score for every headline (930 of the first 1,546 DeepSeek rows had none);
an existing newsdata.db gains the column in place on first open
- headlines naming no tracked currency are scored and archived
(currencies_json []) but never returned to the platform
- _apply_llm_sentiment sends every new headline in its cycle, 25 per call;
a failed call ends the cycle's sending
Dashboard publisher never writes a database: main() calls
app_config.set_db_writes_for_process(False), honoured by signal_log_enabled()
and news_archive_enabled() (owner decision: the bot is the single writer).
Test suite: the hermetic app config now points both writers at a
suite-private temp dir — the RSS fixture tests were writing fixture
headlines into the real logs/newsdata.db — with a Module 32 test pinning it.
529 tests.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- providers: _to_oanda_instrument / _to_tiingo_ticker / _to_td_symbol no longer
guess a wire symbol for pairs that are not registered — the registries are
the only source, so an unknown symbol raises the provider's DataIntegrityError
instead of silently fetching something else. Every scanned symbol is validated
against PAIR_INFO at import, so nothing reachable changes.
- main / telegram_bot _fmt_price: the sub-$10 five-decimal branch could never
fire for gold.
- news_engine._parse_pair: BASE/QUOTE only; the Yahoo "=X" fallback was
unreachable (its test goes with it).
- dashboard_publisher.event_to_dict: drop minutes_until (frozen at publish
time, misleading) and is_high_impact — dashboard.js never read either.
- static/dashboard.html: unused id="cal-table".
Tried and reverted: trimming the LogRow fields nothing in analyze_signal_log
reads — the tests read them to verify the loader round-trips those DB columns,
so they stay.
Suite: 460 passed, 0 failed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0156YhogLytzj9P2iH1skGbL
Removed (all recoverable from git history):
- llm_provider_switch_plan.txt: 2026-08-08 DeepSeek/Anthropic multi-provider plan that
was never implemented (llm_client.py is DeepSeek-only, no `anthropic` anywhere)
- docs/superpowers/specs/2026-07-21-centralized-config-design.md: spec of the
config.json migration that merged the same day; its plan sibling was already
deleted in b936d44. app_config's docstring pointer goes with it.
- scripts/compare_oanda_tiingo.py: Phase 0 recent-tail smoke test, superseded by the
Phase 1/2 study scripts (result recorded in the test plan)
- backtest/research/fetch_oanda_m15.py + oanda_td_divergence.py + its by-hour CSV:
the 2026-07-24 Oanda-vs-Twelve-Data study, superseded by the 2026-08-14 feed
divergence report (which keeps a one-line citation)
- backtest/research/burst_profile.py and hour_analysis.py: superseded by burst_map.py
and book_report.py
- backtest/research/panel_payload_drytest_2026-08-15.py: one-off live DeepSeek probe;
its .jsonl evidence stays
Added to git: the three 2026-08-14 research reports (feed divergence, re-pin
verification, signal parity), their CSV, and docs/data_source_change_test_plan.md -
CLAUDE.md cites them as standing evidence and their driver scripts were already
committed. The test plan no longer refers to auto-execution.
Hygiene:
- .gitignore: drop oanda_state.json (daemon removed 2026-09-03) and the vanished
backtest/trailgrid dirs; ignore .coverage
- docs/architecture_diagram.py only writes the PNG when run as a script (it used
to plot on import); test box refreshed to 461 tests / 31 modules; PNG regenerated
(the committed one still drew the removed daemon)
- backtest/instructions_for_backtest.txt: manual-journal head replaced by the
actual reporting checklist; the 2026-09-06 addendum is unchanged
- doc drift: README/publisher list all six published files; news_summary.php says
4 h (not 24 h) and drops the pre-id sha1 fallback whose window closed;
analyze_signal_log lists six lenses and --scan-outcomes; agent_panel cost model
says 4 requests by default; tiingo comment cites the NY-anchored weekend;
Module 21 title no longer says "execution lifecycle"
Suite: 461 passed, 0 failed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0156YhogLytzj9P2iH1skGbL
New violent_watch.py assesses each scan from the cached Forex Factory week events, the
UTC clock and the report's own indicator states, and stamps SignalReport.watch_line
post-hoc (telegram alerts, CLI, dashboard). A standalone heads-up goes to the owner on
the fastest scanned timeframe when the level is "hot", once per UTC hour per trigger
set, capped per day. Config block `violent_watch` (enabled False, alert_line, headsup,
max_headsup_per_day, headsup_min_level); env VIOLENT_WATCH_ENABLED.
Rule chosen from a 3-year bar-by-bar sweep (backtest/research/watch_rule_eval.py,
recorded in sizing_campaign_2026-09.md): hot = high-impact USD release within 30 min
(before or after) OR a hot clock slot (weekday 12-14 UTC, 01 UTC, Sunday 22-23 UTC)
with at least one price-extreme reading (outside Bollinger bands, RSI <30/>=70, outside
Keltner); ~8.6% of bars, next-bar odds 3-5x normal, ~4 hot hours/day. watch = clock
slot alone or two price-extreme readings (~2x). Context readings (ADX rising, extreme
volatility, transitioning, MACD acceleration) are phrases only - letting them raise the
level flagged 27% of bars at ~2x and would have sent ~13 heads-ups/day (rejected).
Direction sentence: DOWN when bearish readings dominate (70-78% on both TFs), UP on M5
only. Never a gate or exit: every open-trade protection tested lost money.
Test-locked out of analyze_from_dataframes / engine / backtester. Module 30 (18 tests).
Suite: 453 passed. Guide PDFs not rebuilt.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01RWV2yLt3YXHHGVYHSQU2EE
None of these touch the signal path. The 12-month M15 book
(2024-03-31..2025-03-30, $0.65, cached Oanda bars) is byte-identical
before and after (md5 c59d3e7e685c3c880b614640adfea74b, 375 trades),
and signal/indicator logging to logs/signals.db is unchanged — verified
end to end: per-TF indicators for all 3 TFs, 14 candles each, MTF and
reasons all still persisted.
agent_panel: the >=2-take quorum guards the CHAIR's synthesizer spend,
but ran BEFORE the macro branch — so the shipped default
(verdict_source="macro", which never calls the synthesizer) silently
dropped a good macro verdict whenever the other three personas were
slow. Quorum moved below the macro path.
analyze_signal_log: _forward_return clamped to the last available bar
when the horizon had not elapsed, reporting a near-zero "forward move"
for every row logged within `hours` of the end of the data — on every
run, blended into the hit-rate/mean-move aggregate. Now returns None.
analyze_signal_log: persona_scorecard iterated raw rows through an index
that maps EVERY member row of an event, so a re-logged scan appended
the same event R twice. One vote per event, matching
news_outcome_buckets. Measured inflation on the live DB: 1.03x.
signal_log: dedup required a non-negative logged_at gap, but logged_at is
stamped before the row wins the write lock (busy_timeout 5 s), so two
processes logging one setup at a boundary can invert timestamp order
against id order and seed a second event. Now abs(gap); same in
backfill_seeds. Zero occurrences in the current 366 setup rows.
advisory_outcome: the catch-all turned real evaluator faults into the
same UNRESOLVABLE used for legitimate weekend gaps, with nothing in the
log. Still fail-safe, now logged.
llm_client: only the "cap" warn-once flag was ever reset, so in a daemon
the second and every later network/http/parse outage logged at DEBUG
only. Cleared on UTC-day roll and re-armed by a recovered call.
dashboard.js: renderCards() redraws the selector for every timeframe but
was gated on the SELECTED one changing, leaving the other buttons stale
(up to 4 h on H4) while renderHero's rail already showed the new value.
news_summary.php: atomic_write treated a short write (disk full) as
success, publishing a truncated body the cache-first branch then served
forever; and the daily cap was charged before the no-key check and
before the stampede lock re-checked the cache, so a click burst could
exhaust the 150/day budget with zero LLM calls.
migrate_signal_log_news: logged_at is ISO with 'T' while SQLite's
datetime() uses a space, so string-comparing them put the whole cutoff
calendar day on the wrong side and it never pruned. NOTE: this now
deletes one day more than before — it only runs when invoked by hand.
Tests 414 -> 422 (new Module 28, one per fix). The existing
"<2 valid takes" test was retargeted at the chair — the case it actually
protects — rather than deleted, with new coverage for macro-alone.
Not fixed, recorded for the owner:
- Gate 6c's boost condition is textually identical to the C-grade
definition, so every C in a "transitioning" regime is promoted to B
before gate 6e reads it, making sell_min_quality's exclusion of "C" a
no-op on M15/H4 (H1 and M5 are immune by other means). The backtester
runs the same code, so every pinned book already includes this —
changing it is a rule-1 revalidation event.
- Safe-haven/geopolitical headlines score exactly 0.00 in the keyword
fallback and are now dropped entirely by the ±0.1 neutral filter,
contradicting the platform's own gold doctrine. Bites only when
DeepSeek is capped/disabled/failing.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Ah5EB1goi5inQmSd37Ne6a
Verdict from the 3-week signal log (backtest/research/news_sentiment_value_2026-09-04.md):
news_sentiment is a trailing-24h echo of price (r +0.67 with the past day, +0.03 with
the next; most bullish 2 h after the 08-25 top, bearish 44 h later; most bearish at the
09-02 low, bullish 16 h later). Per-headline LLM labels are correct; the 12 h pool and
the averaging are what destroy the information. Both gating flags stay False.
- news_engine: _LLM_SUMMARY_SYSTEM rewritten for someone who has never traded (no
acronyms, two worked examples); summary payload newest-first with the platform's own
gold direction; reply cap 300 -> 400 chars.
- config: headline_max_age_seconds 43200 -> 14400; RSS items without a parsable
pubDate are dropped (they used to be stamped "now" and never aged out).
- news_engine.get_fundamental_context drops headlines whose every relevant score is
inside +-0.1 (_is_neutral_headline) before the per-currency mean; news_sentiment
from this date is a mean over directional <=4 h headlines (log comparisons split here).
- static: dashboard copy for the 4 h pool; news_summary.php prompt gets the same style rule.
- analyze_signal_log: --news (under --stored-candles) prints sentiment lead/lag with
split halves, sentiment at the window high/low with flip lags, and outcome buckets by
direction x news x macro stance; LogRow gains news_sentiment/event_risk; _row_index shared.
- tests: 406 -> 414 (age window, undated drop, neutral filter, summary prompt/payload/cap,
--news helpers, load_rows round-trip); RSS fixtures now carry a pubDate.
- docs: user/beginner guides, CLAUDE.md, deploy README.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0169BgFtWjp1SEAa5392Q9jH
Page now uses Bootstrap 5.3 color modes (data-bs-theme), Bootstrap Icons,
and Bootstrap modals. Custom code shrinks to dashboard.css (app tokens,
score bar, signal accents) and dashboard.js (rendering/polling logic,
ported verbatim from the inline script). dashboard_publisher copies the
new css/js into the docroot; all 381 tests still green.
poll() now compares raw payload text and re-renders only what a changed
file can affect, preserving selection, disclosure, and scroll state. Hero
freshness reflects publish time (STALE warning past 15 min while market
open), and countdowns resolve their wrap interval from data-interval
instead of reverse-looking shared TF boundaries in snapshot.timeframes.
main.py: --panel runs the agent panel on demand (force bypasses
enabled/surface/quality toggles; daily budget + LLM cap still apply),
prints the verdict + persona takes, and report_to_dict carries the four
panel keys — which auto-propagates them into the dashboard's
snapshot.json via report_to_webapp_dict. dashboard_publisher attaches
in scan_tf gated by agent_panel.dashboard (default off); dashboard.html
renders an "AI panel (advisory)" section in the TF detail dialog.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01SisdfkxnXNL9iZsXxN3T15
Owner-supplied page design replacing the dark-only v1: Bootstrap 5
colour tokens with a luma-inverted dark mode (toggle + system-pref +
localStorage), compact clickable TF cards opening a full-detail modal
(all-nine indicator table with value/conf/weight, price ladder of key
levels vs spot, per-confirmation-TF drilldowns, provenance), newswire
aggregate sentiment box, Inter/JetBrains Mono webfonts.
Re-applied the c70f58a sync fixes the source copy predated: 5 s
conditional-GET polling and the +2 s boundary refetch sniper. Data
logic otherwise unchanged; all fields verified against
report_to_webapp_dict output.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017mbXs9HRawZhD1uZ3ze7zQ
Three display-side fixes, no signal-logic changes:
- run_cycle publishes snapshot.json BEFORE the news refresh — news I/O
(FF + 4 RSS + possible DeepSeek calls) took 20-30 s on TTL-expired
cycles and kept fresh signals off the page (publish_all split into
publish_snapshot/publish_news, kept for boot)
- page polls every 5 s (was 20 s) using conditional GETs: dropped the
?t= cache-buster + no-store so Apache answers unchanged files with
bodyless 304s
- boundary refetch sniper re-armed: fires 2 s after next_scan_epoch
regardless of distance (the old delay<POLL_MS guard would have been
dead code at 5 s polling)
New Module 20 test locks the snapshot-before-news ordering. 352 tests.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017mbXs9HRawZhD1uZ3ze7zQ
- dashboard_publisher.py: standalone candle-close daemon that atomically
writes snapshot.json/news.json/dashboard.html to an Apache-served dir
(DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR). Fully independent of telegram_bot/oanda_daemon —
local confirmation map + boundary math, no imports either way, no new
deps, no open port. Due-TF classification from the RAW wake time.
- static/dashboard.html: self-contained dark page — hero rail, four TF
cards (score bar, 3x3 indicator grid, MTF, setup, reasons), DeepSeek
market context, week economic calendar, scored newswire. Clock offset
from the HTTP Date header (publish-time epoch is stale between closes).
- news_engine.get_week_events(): additive read-only accessor over the
cached FF week; no signal path calls it.
- deploy/: systemd unit + live-server (LAMP/SELinux) checklist.
- test_all.py: Module 20 (9 tests) + get_week_events test; 296 green.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Wc9ZoqKLYBT2QJcpRWKoGm
Harwinder Sekhon