Commit Graph

25 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
harwinder 541ef7ff4a Remove WebSocket: use candle-boundary scanning only
- Remove websockets import, _ws_monitor, _handle_breach, _breach_tasks
- Remove _WS_TO_PAIR, _WS_SYMBOLS, _WS_URL, _WS_COOLDOWN constants
- Remove _last_prices, _scan_cooldowns, _cleanup_cooldowns
- Remove ws_cooldown_seconds from PlatformConfig
- Remove websockets from requirements.txt
- Simplify _check_level_breach to proximity-based detection
- Update dashboard to use report prices instead of WS prices
- Clean up status/help messages, _start/_stop_scheduler
- Update tests to match new level breach behavior

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 17:38:25 -04:00
harwinder de57c016d1 Tune EUR/USD defaults: tighter SL, higher TP, A-grade filter, unblock ranging
Config changes from EUR/USD optimization rounds:
- sl_atr_multiplier 1.5→0.5, tp_atr_multiplier 1.0→1.5, min_rr 0.5→1.0
- Unblock ranging regime, restrict to A+/A quality on M15
- Lower entry thresholds: score 38→30, confidence 60→50
- Add M5-specific regime weights and config overrides in eurusd.py

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 17:26:05 -04:00
harwinder 08d7c9ade1 Optimize EUR/USD to 78.7% WR on 2-year M15 backtest
Three-layer optimization:

1. Entry filters (signal_aggregator.py section 6e):
   - Block ranging regime
   - Only A+/A/B quality grades
   - min_entry_score=38, min_entry_confidence=60
   - Block RSI > 70 for BUY, RSI < 30 for SELL

2. Trade setup (config.py EurUsdStrategyConfig):
   - RR=0.50 with uniform quality scale
   - SL floor 1.2 ATR, TP 1.0 ATR

3. Breakeven trail (backtest/gpu_backtest.py):
   - When MFE reaches 0.3R, move SL to entry + 0.05R buffer
   - Converts 4 of 14 losses to +0.05R small wins
   - Bar-by-bar simulation integrated into simulate_trades()

Results (EUR/USD M15, 2024-05-18 to 2026-05-18):
  47 trades | 78.7% WR | +1.81R | PF 1.18 | MaxDD 3.35R
XAU/USD unchanged: 77.8% WR on 30-day, 68.7% WR on 2-year.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 14:00:59 -04:00
harwinder 74b723ba06 Tune EUR/USD trade setup: quality-scaled TP and tighter SL
EUR/USD A-grade signals had inverted quality curve (-1.65R) because all
trades got RR≈0.50 and mature_move logic penalized high-score entries.

Fix: add per-pair trade setup params (sl_atr_floor=1.2, min_rr=1.0,
mature_move_threshold=35) and apply quality_scale to both tp_mult and
min_rr so A-grade gets wider TP targets. Also wire EUR config into
backtest via PAIR_PRODUCERS registry.

Result: A-grade now +1.24R (was -1.65R), total EUR/USD +10.06R (was +4.20R).
XAU/USD unchanged at +13.01R.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 12:56:34 -04:00
harwinder 3146a632d4 Add EUR/USD support with modular per-pair signal producer pattern
- Register EUR/USD in config (pip 0.0001, EurUsdStrategyConfig)
- Create pair_signals/ module: registry + dispatcher with per-pair
  config factories (xauusd.py, eurusd.py) for easy add/remove
- EUR/USD gets forex-tuned regime weights, London+NY session hours,
  XAU strategy gates disabled
- Add defense-in-depth display_name guards in signal_aggregator
- Rename telegram_bot.py → testing_telegram_bot.py with separate
  bot token, both pairs with dedicated button rows
- Add EUR/USD to news engine affected pairs map
- 9 new tests (146 total, all passing)
- Zero changes to engine.py, data_provider.py, main.py, backtest/

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-18 12:18:55 -04:00
harwinder b61818330b Fix weekend filter: use precise forex market hours (Fri 22:00–Sun 22:00 UTC)
The old `weekday() >= 5` check blocked all of Sunday, but the forex
market reopens Sunday 22:00 UTC (Sydney open). Now uses proper time-based
check so the bot fetches data and generates signals on Sunday evening.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 19:23:21 -04:00
harwinder 08742c5063 Align FilterConfig with XAU strategy: blocked hours [0,1,2], session 3-23 UTC, Mon-Fri
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 15:36:03 -04:00
harwinder 5047601d46 Reduce blocked hours, enable M5 alerts, show NY time on dashboard
- Blocked hours reduced to 0-2 UTC only (daily rollover)
- M5 signals now broadcast to Telegram like M15/H1/H4
- Live dashboard shows New York time (auto EDT/EST via zoneinfo)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 15:23:48 -04:00
harwinder 8ed6454ea5 Refocus on XAU/USD: add momentum indicators, tune TP, exhaustion block
Strip EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY pairs and strategies from entire codebase.
Add 3 new scored indicators (ROC, Keltner/TTM Squeeze, ADX slope) and
enable MACD-as-pillar + divergence detection for early trend entry.
Introduce "transitioning" regime (ADX < 25, slope > 3.0) to catch trend
births before ADX confirms. Gold-specific composite weights per regime.

Tune TP multipliers: quality-tiered scaling (A+/A get 1.5-2.0x ATR via
XAU ATR method, B/C use swing-level targeting). Backtest: +24R total,
65% WR, PF 1.12 over 365 days.

Add momentum-confirmed exhaustion block: hard-reject trades when 2+
static exhaustion signals fire AND ROC/MACD confirm fading momentum.
Prevents late trend entries without killing strong trend trades.

Telegram: simplify buttons to timeframe-only labels, add "Scan All TFs"
multi-timeframe summary, add /scan command, fix BB/KC level breach keys,
fix price formatting (.2f for gold), fix deprecated asyncio call, fix
"1 pairs" grammar and 60s/30s dashboard refresh mismatch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 10:51:51 -04:00
harwinder 98daf71a52 Add web dashboard (Redis + FastAPI + WebSocket), scope XAU penalties
Signal daemon (signal_web.py): candle-boundary scanner mirroring
telegram_bot.py, publishes serialized SignalReport JSON to Redis.
Web API (web/app.py): thin FastAPI reader behind Apache, serves
/api/signals REST + /ws WebSocket from Redis pub/sub.
Frontend (web/static/index.html): 3-pair grid, color-coded signals,
indicator breakdown per timeframe, trade setup display.

Also: XAU-specific penalty scoping in signal_aggregator (softer
confidence penalties for gold, original strict values for forex),
pair-aware session filter routing XAU to its own blocked hours.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 23:15:37 -04:00
harwinder 57769967d1 Fix news engine (keywords, calendar fallback, RSS URL), remove Telegram guards
News engine: expand sentiment keywords (18%→60% headline coverage), add
MyFXBook RSS as fallback calendar source when Forex Factory returns 429,
add retry/backoff on calendar API rate limits, update stale ForexLive URL
to investinglive.com, add date formats without seconds for MyFXBook RSS.

Telegram bot: remove flood control, rate limiter, and dashboard failure
tracking — all sends go directly through bot.send_message/edit_message_text.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 13:42:32 -04:00
harwinder 235241f95a Harden Telegram bot, add EUR/GBP strategies, parallelize scans
Telegram reliability: rate-limited sends (1 msg/s), dashboard lock,
WebSocket JSON/price error handling, markdown escaping, level cache
TTL, cooldown cleanup, breach task tracking, graceful shutdown.

Telegram speed: parallelize 3-pair scans with asyncio.gather(),
increase thread pool 2→4, parallelize boot-up initial scan.

Strategy: add EUR/USD and GBP/USD pullback-buy strategies with
per-pair configs, optimize XAU TP to 0.9×ATR, block hours 8/9
for XAU and hour 17 for GBP.

Backtest: add --max-hours flag to evaluate.py for time-exit support.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 21:07:49 -04:00
harwinder d63544b75d Add XAU/USD oversold-bounce strategy (79.7% WR, PF 2.06)
BUY-only strategy for gold: enters when M15 RSI drops below oversold
threshold while price remains above EMA200 on all three timeframes
(M15, H1, H4). Uses ATR-based TP/SL (0.7x/2.0x) sized from M15 ATR.
Isolated to XAU/USD only — other pairs completely unaffected.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 17:25:49 -04:00
harwinder 1e5047e20f Backtest tuning, data freshness guard, Telegram improvements
- Drop USD/JPY from scan pairs (zero signals across all timeframes)
- Disable divergence indicator (zero impact in 14-config lab test)
- Parallelize evaluate.py with ProcessPoolExecutor (16 cores)
- Add --pair CLI filter to evaluate.py for single-pair backtests
- Add data freshness guard: stale cache auto-invalidated, primary TF
  stale data suppresses signals to prevent trading on old data
- Add /cache command: shows fetch age and last bar per pair/TF
- Add /clearcache command: wipes in-memory cache for fresh API fetch
- Remove BB from WebSocket breach alerts (keep structural levels only)
- Show live prices only for WS-monitored pairs (EUR/USD, XAU/USD)
- Replace arrow emojis with text tags in indicator lines

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-12 22:56:55 -04:00
harwinder 736e33302b Tune engine from backtesting: wider SL, capped TP, counter-trend filter
Backtest-driven fixes (0% win → 33% win, PF 0.00 → 1.05 over 7 days):
- SL: swing buffer 0.5→1.0 ATR, min distance 1.0→1.5 ATR (more room to breathe)
- TP: cap swing targets at ATR×3.0, fallback ATR×2.0 (was targeting unreachable levels)
- Mature-move TP: when score>30 (A/B grade), tighten TP to ATR×1.5 (move already extended)
- Counter-trend penalty: -15 confidence when signal fights regime direction
- EMA200 penalties halved: -20→-10 (was killing EUR/USD signals)
- Score thresholds lowered: BUY/SELL ±15→±12, STRONG ±40→±35
- Quality grades relaxed, C-grade now gets trade setups and Telegram alerts
- min_rr_ratio: 1.5→1.2
- Gitignore backtest/ directory

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 17:00:12 -04:00
harwinder dc9c76a716 Pro tier upgrade: quant rearchitect + WebSocket level-breach monitor
- Restore XAU/USD (Pro plan), drop USD/CAD, raise rate limit to 55/min
- Reduce signal engine to 4 uncorrelated pillars (EMA, RSI, BB, Candlestick)
  with regime-adaptive weights (trending boosts EMA, ranging boosts RSI+BB)
- Add structure-based S/R (swing highs/lows) for trade setup targeting
- Fix confidence death spiral: all adjustments now additive, not multiplicative
- Dynamic R:R trade setup: SL behind swing level, TP at next structure level,
  reject if R:R < 1.5
- Fix news engine for all 4 pairs (was hardcoded to USDJPY)
- Add WebSocket monitor: streams live ticks, triggers M15 scan on level breach
  with 5-min cooldown per pair — catches breakouts between candle boundaries
- Add correlation filter (EUR/USD+GBP/USD, XAU/USD+USD/JPY exposure warnings)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 16:33:23 -04:00
harwinder a15dc40050 Replace XAU/USD with USD/CAD — TwelveData has no gold data
XAU/USD is not available in TwelveData's symbol list.
Swapped to USD/CAD across config, scan pairs, Telegram buttons,
and added CAD to tracked news currencies.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 15:50:48 -04:00
harwinder b3e0da7455 Add 4-pair candle-boundary auto-scanner (free tier safe)
Expand from 2 to 4 pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, XAU/USD) with
automatic scanning at M15 and H1 candle close boundaries. Scheduler
staggers H1 by 60s to stay within 8 credits/min; daily budget is
480 of 800 allowed. Cache TTL is now candle-duration-aware so cross-TF
confirmation data is reused without extra API calls. Spread estimate
uses primary-TF data instead of fetching M5 separately.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 15:30:11 -04:00
Harwinder 037dec643e Add EUR/USD support and 4-button Telegram scanner
Add EURUSD pair with dynamic pair info lookup. Telegram bot now shows
4 scan buttons: EUR/USD 15M, EUR/USD 1H, USD/JPY 15M, USD/JPY 1H.
Each indicator displays directional arrows in the message output.
Price formatting adapts per pair (5dp for EUR, 3dp for JPY).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 23:49:36 -04:00
Harwinder 3a09dfd62f Strip backtesting, rebalance indicator weights toward leading signals
Remove backtest.py, backtest_gpu.py, metrics.py, local CSV data,
Dukascopy loader, and all backtest CLI modes from main.py. Rebalance
engine weights: leading indicators (divergence, RSI, stochastic, BB)
now carry 66% of signal weight vs 34% for lagging (EMA, MACD). Add
ws_twelvedata.py for live tick streaming. Drop pyarrow and tqdm deps.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 23:40:15 -04:00
Harwinder b38ed17c96 Add session filter + auto-toggle, extend trade journal diagnostics
Session filter restricts trades to a UTC hour window (default 07-16,
London + NY) — opt-in via --session-filter, with --session-start /
--session-end overrides. Wired into both the backtester (cheap hour
check next to the regime gate) and live mode (downgrades signal to
NEUTRAL/F when current UTC hour is outside the window).

Auto-toggle (--auto-session-filter) tracks rolling mean pnl_pct over
the last N closed trades; when it falls below threshold, the session
filter activates, releasing once expectancy recovers. Default lookback
10 trades, threshold -0.3%.

Trade dataclass extended with diagnostic fields captured at entry:
entry_hour, entry_dow, ADX, ATR%, market_regime, volatility_regime,
mtf_agreement. These let --journal-csv exports surface loss-pattern
clusters when a window underperforms.

Validated on 2024 trend / 2023 chop / 2026 recent windows. Auto-toggle
preserves ~50% of trend edge while still cutting ~25% of recent-regime
losses — pure regime filter is still best on cumulative, so both
session flags ship default-off.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 18:38:49 -04:00
Harwinder 7699e6dd1d Add indicator ablation framework + apply ablation-driven cleanup
Framework:
- TechnicalConfig.disabled_indicators skips named indicators in engine.analyze
- Optimizer supports disable_indicator override for parallel ablation sweeps
- main.py --ablate runs leave-one-out across all 10 directional indicators

Cleanup applied (validated across 2024 trend / 2023 chop / 2026 recent):
- Drop pivot by default (cumulative +9.5% to disable)
- Drop candlestick by default (+3.4% cumulative)
- Regime-gate ichimoku: 1.3x in trending, 0.2x in ranging (was a chop villain)
- Trim RSI weight 1.0 -> 0.3 (cumulative noise across regimes)

Result: +10.60% on 2024 trend (+33.24% -> +43.84%, Sharpe 2.17 -> 2.77),
+15.71% on 2023 chop (-18.27% -> -2.56%). Recent regime still adverse.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:33:07 -04:00
Harwinder 636f0304ae Refocus on USD/JPY and add walk-forward backtester with regime filter
- Strip multi-pair plumbing; drop synthetic-data fallback
- Add BacktestConfig + walk-forward replay through the live signal pipeline
- Add metrics module (PF, Sharpe, Sortino, max DD, trade journal)
- Add parallel grid optimizer with disk parquet cache
- Add H4 ADX regime gate (--regime-filter, --regime-min-adx) — cuts chop
  losses ~84% in 2023 H1 while preserving trend edge

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:15:41 -04:00
Harwinder 242df24ca7 Fixed Bugs 2026-05-04 10:51:03 -04:00
harry e39054af02 Add config.py 2026-05-04 04:08:10 +00:00