# Context screens after the daily-trend veto — declared before looking, 2026-10-01

Follow-up to `daily_trend_campaign_2026-09-30.md` (owner decision 2026-09-30: "more context
screens"). The daily chart was information the engine had never seen, and it paid on M15. This
file asks the same question of seven more pieces of context. Sections 1 to 3 were written before
any number in section 4 existed.

## 1. Books and slices

The books as shipped on 2026-09-30, `--spread 0.65`, CUDA twin (byte-identical to
`gpu_backtest.py` on the paired runs of the campaign report):

| Book | Window | Trades / R | MD5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| M15 LONG (veto on) | 2019-01-01 → 2026-08-07 | 1473 / +223.33 | `aa5253aa…` |
| M15 W3 (veto on) | 2023-09-05 → 2026-09-05 | 824 / +205.12 | `ad3b0dbd…` |
| M5 LONG | 2019-01-01 → 2026-08-07 | 1052 / +128.10 | `3f0c091c…` |
| M5 W3 | 2023-09-05 → 2026-09-05 | 870 / +153.64 | `d20ec8a3…` |

Four slices per timeframe: LONG era A (entries 2019–2023), LONG era B (2024 → 2026-08-07), W3
first half (before 2025-03-05), W3 second half. W3 overlaps era B, so the four slices are not
independent; that is known and accepted for a screen.

## 2. The seven features (closed bars only, as of the trade's decision time)

Decision time = the trade's entry time (the entry is the open of the bar after the signal bar, so
it equals the signal bar's close). A bar counts only when it had closed by then.

Daily bars: provider D1 candles (UTC days), Sunday stub bars dropped, usable from label + 1 day.

1. **Weekly trend.** Weekly bars = the kept daily bars grouped into weeks ending Friday; a week is
   usable once its Friday bar is. State +1 when the weekly close is above its 20-week EMA
   (`ewm(span=20, adjust=False)`) AND above the close 12 weeks earlier; −1 when below both; else 0.
   Trade state: `with` / `against` / `unclear`.
2. **Four-hour trend.** Provider H4 candles (UTC-aligned), usable from label + 4 h. State +1 when
   the close is above its 50-bar EMA AND above the close 30 bars earlier; −1 when below both; else
   0. Trade state: `with` / `against` / `unclear`.
3. **Daily-trend strength.** `(Close − Close 60 kept days earlier) / ATR14`, ATR14 = the simple
   14-day mean of the true range, taken in the trade's direction (multiplied by −1 for a SELL).
   Trade state by fixed cut-offs: `counter` (< 0), `weak` (0 to 5), `medium` (5 to 12),
   `strong` (> 12 daily ATRs).
4. **Daily volatility state.** ATR14 / Close, ranked within its own trailing 250 kept days
   (percentile, the current day included). Trade state: `quiet` (< 33%), `normal`, `wild` (> 67%).
5. **Place in the 20-day range.** `(Close − lowest Low of 20 kept days) / (highest High − lowest
   Low)`, mirrored for a SELL (1 − value). Trade state: `near the far edge` (< 1/3: buying near
   the 20-day low or selling near the high), `middle`, `near the chasing edge` (> 2/3: buying near
   the 20-day high or selling near the low).
6. **Tick-volume surge.** Volume of the signal bar divided by the median volume of the same clock
   slot (same hour and minute, UTC) over that slot's previous 20 bars. Trade state: `thin`
   (< 0.8), `usual` (0.8 to 1.5), `surge` (> 1.5).
7. **Time to a high-impact US release** (`backtest/cache/calendar.parquet`, currency USD, impact
   high, time not masked; the file starts 2023-09-01, so W3 only). Minutes from the decision time
   to the nearest such release. Trade state: `0–30 min before`, `0–30 min after`,
   `30–120 min before`, `30–120 min after`, `clear` (more than 2 hours either side).

Rows whose feature cannot be computed (not enough history) are counted as `n/a` and never flagged.

## 3. Rule

A screen is an in-book statistic: it cannot see the trades a change would add and it ignores the
5-bar cooldown. It can only nominate a hypothesis.

- A state is **nominated** only if, on one timeframe, it holds at least 8% of the trades of BOTH
  books (LONG and W3) and its total R is negative in ALL FOUR slices.
- For each nominated state the mechanism is written down before its replay.
- At most **three** replays in total, on the final-veto research harness of the campaign (K1 + K2
  of the twin, a mask on the final candidates before the cooldown, the shared resolver), judged by
  the same risk-first rule T against the shipped book: W3 R ≥ 97% of control, W3 PF ≥ control +
  0.10, W3 max drawdown ≤ control, LONG R ≥ control, LONG max drawdown ≤ control, 2021 + 2022
  better, HOLDOUT R ≥ control − 0.5R, the same at $0.30, at least 20 trades differ. (No
  neighbour-definition clause here: a pass only earns a full Stage-1/Stage-2 build, where the
  neighbours are tested.)
- No nomination, no replay. No second cut-off, no other bins, no "best of seven" story afterwards.
  With 7 features, about 25 states and 2 timeframes, a state that is negative in four overlapping
  slices by luck alone is not rare; that is why a nomination is only a ticket to a replay.

## 4. Results

Run 2026-10-01 on the four books of section 1 (read from the campaign's exported CSVs; the feature
frames are the kept Oanda cache windows: daily `1d_20150303_20260807` / `1d_20191105_20260905`,
four-hour `4h_20181031_20260807` / `4h_20230114_20260905`, the books' own primary frames for
volume, `calendar.parquet` for releases). Every trade's decision time equals its entry time in
all four books (no entry sat behind a market closure). Cells are total R (trades); "mean" is R per
trade.

### 4.1 M15 (daily-trend veto on): LONG 1473 trades / +223.33R, W3 824 trades / +205.12R

**M15 — 1. weekly trend**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| against | 78 (5%) | -15.0 / -0.193 | 25 (3%) | +3.9 / +0.157 | -18.3 (58) | +3.2 (20) | +3.8 (7) | +0.1 (18) |  |
| unclear | 176 (12%) | +28.1 / +0.160 | 101 (12%) | +37.8 / +0.375 | +1.9 (102) | +26.2 (74) | +25.4 (61) | +12.5 (40) |  |
| with | 1219 (83%) | +210.3 / +0.173 | 698 (85%) | +163.4 / +0.234 | +53.1 (568) | +157.2 (651) | +47.6 (316) | +115.8 (382) |  |

**M15 — 2. four-hour trend**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| against | 260 (18%) | +23.3 / +0.090 | 134 (16%) | +14.8 / +0.111 | +12.4 (137) | +10.9 (123) | +3.4 (59) | +11.4 (75) |  |
| unclear | 167 (11%) | +16.8 / +0.100 | 84 (10%) | +16.7 / +0.199 | +0.3 (90) | +16.5 (77) | +1.8 (41) | +14.9 (43) |  |
| with | 1046 (71%) | +183.3 / +0.175 | 606 (74%) | +173.6 / +0.286 | +24.1 (501) | +159.2 (545) | +71.5 (284) | +102.1 (322) |  |

**M15 — 3. daily-trend strength**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| counter | 145 (10%) | -4.8 / -0.033 | 72 (9%) | +16.9 / +0.234 | -13.1 (92) | +8.3 (53) | +15.2 (39) | +1.7 (33) |  |
| medium | 586 (40%) | +106.6 / +0.182 | 393 (48%) | +94.6 / +0.241 | +16.7 (199) | +89.9 (387) | +9.5 (162) | +85.1 (231) |  |
| strong | 17 (1%) | +4.6 / +0.268 | 10 (1%) | +4.8 / +0.483 | -0.3 (7) | +4.8 (10) | -1.1 (1) | +5.9 (9) |  |
| weak | 725 (49%) | +117.0 / +0.161 | 349 (42%) | +88.8 / +0.254 | +33.5 (430) | +83.5 (295) | +53.1 (182) | +35.7 (167) |  |

**M15 — 4. daily volatility state**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| normal | 445 (30%) | +54.8 / +0.123 | 299 (36%) | +77.6 / +0.259 | -11.8 (194) | +66.6 (251) | +6.7 (118) | +70.8 (181) |  |
| quiet | 373 (25%) | +64.1 / +0.172 | 152 (18%) | +51.7 / +0.340 | +24.2 (235) | +39.9 (138) | +38.9 (109) | +12.8 (43) |  |
| wild | 655 (44%) | +104.4 / +0.159 | 373 (45%) | +75.9 / +0.203 | +24.3 (299) | +80.1 (356) | +31.1 (157) | +44.8 (216) |  |

**M15 — 5. place in the 20-day range**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| middle | 420 (29%) | +54.9 / +0.131 | 230 (28%) | +32.3 / +0.140 | +25.3 (217) | +29.7 (203) | +30.9 (107) | +1.4 (123) |  |
| near the chasing edge | 835 (57%) | +143.5 / +0.172 | 483 (59%) | +147.1 / +0.305 | +8.8 (400) | +134.7 (435) | +40.6 (227) | +106.5 (256) |  |
| near the far edge | 218 (15%) | +24.8 / +0.114 | 111 (13%) | +25.7 / +0.231 | +2.6 (111) | +22.2 (107) | +5.3 (50) | +20.4 (61) |  |

**M15 — 6. tick-volume surge**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| surge | 556 (38%) | +83.1 / +0.149 | 226 (27%) | +45.7 / +0.202 | +45.8 (355) | +37.3 (201) | +22.5 (110) | +23.1 (116) |  |
| thin | 220 (15%) | +15.6 / +0.071 | 125 (15%) | +28.5 / +0.228 | -10.4 (99) | +26.0 (121) | +11.5 (48) | +17.0 (77) |  |
| usual | 697 (47%) | +124.7 / +0.179 | 473 (57%) | +130.9 / +0.277 | +1.4 (274) | +123.2 (423) | +42.7 (226) | +88.3 (247) |  |

**M15 — 7. time to a high-impact US release (W3 only)**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–30 min after |  |  | 42 (5%) | +8.9 / +0.212 |  |  | +4.7 (27) | +4.2 (15) |  |
| 0–30 min before |  |  | 26 (3%) | +8.7 / +0.336 |  |  | +7.8 (18) | +0.9 (8) |  |
| 30–120 min after |  |  | 75 (9%) | +28.4 / +0.378 |  |  | +11.7 (51) | +16.6 (24) |  |
| 30–120 min before |  |  | 22 (3%) | +16.1 / +0.732 |  |  | +12.9 (18) | +3.2 (4) |  |
| clear |  |  | 659 (80%) | +143.0 / +0.217 |  |  | +39.6 (270) | +103.5 (389) |  |

### 4.2 M5: LONG 1052 trades / +128.10R, W3 870 trades / +153.64R

**M5 — 1. weekly trend**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| against | 258 (25%) | +11.0 / +0.043 | 202 (23%) | +6.6 / +0.033 | +9.4 (69) | +1.6 (189) | +3.8 (10) | +2.8 (192) |  |
| unclear | 84 (8%) | +6.3 / +0.075 | 88 (10%) | +24.6 / +0.279 | -7.5 (30) | +13.8 (54) | +8.2 (12) | +16.4 (76) |  |
| with | 710 (67%) | +110.8 / +0.156 | 580 (67%) | +122.5 / +0.211 | -12.3 (159) | +123.1 (551) | +4.7 (114) | +117.8 (466) |  |

**M5 — 2. four-hour trend**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| against | 332 (32%) | +3.0 / +0.009 | 255 (29%) | +11.2 / +0.044 | -5.5 (98) | +8.4 (234) | -0.9 (35) | +12.2 (220) |  |
| unclear | 126 (12%) | +13.7 / +0.109 | 105 (12%) | +17.8 / +0.170 | +0.6 (28) | +13.1 (98) | +0.8 (13) | +17.0 (92) |  |
| with | 594 (56%) | +111.4 / +0.188 | 510 (59%) | +124.6 / +0.244 | -5.5 (132) | +116.9 (462) | +16.9 (88) | +107.7 (422) |  |

**M5 — 3. daily-trend strength**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| counter | 296 (28%) | +0.7 / +0.003 | 241 (28%) | -2.6 / -0.011 | +8.8 (87) | -8.0 (209) | +3.7 (18) | -6.3 (223) |  |
| medium | 367 (35%) | +77.3 / +0.211 | 318 (37%) | +78.4 / +0.247 | -1.2 (49) | +78.4 (318) | +6.9 (53) | +71.6 (265) |  |
| strong | 14 (1%) | +16.6 / +1.186 | 13 (1%) | +15.6 / +1.199 | +1.0 (1) | +15.6 (13) | +0.0 (0) | +15.6 (13) |  |
| weak | 375 (36%) | +33.5 / +0.089 | 298 (34%) | +62.2 / +0.209 | -19.0 (121) | +52.5 (254) | +6.2 (65) | +56.1 (233) |  |

**M5 — 4. daily volatility state**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| normal | 302 (29%) | +33.2 / +0.110 | 305 (35%) | +45.6 / +0.150 | -0.8 (63) | +34.0 (239) | -3.0 (42) | +48.6 (263) |  |
| quiet | 114 (11%) | +18.8 / +0.165 | 72 (8%) | +17.9 / +0.249 | +3.0 (45) | +15.8 (69) | +10.9 (37) | +7.0 (35) |  |
| wild | 636 (60%) | +76.1 / +0.120 | 493 (57%) | +90.1 / +0.183 | -12.6 (150) | +88.8 (486) | +8.8 (57) | +81.3 (436) |  |

**M5 — 5. place in the 20-day range**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| middle | 323 (31%) | +11.8 / +0.037 | 271 (31%) | +18.8 / +0.069 | -6.8 (76) | +18.6 (247) | -1.8 (34) | +20.6 (237) |  |
| near the chasing edge | 439 (42%) | +101.5 / +0.231 | 380 (44%) | +115.0 / +0.303 | -2.6 (103) | +104.1 (336) | +17.2 (77) | +97.8 (303) |  |
| near the far edge | 290 (28%) | +14.8 / +0.051 | 219 (25%) | +19.9 / +0.091 | -1.0 (79) | +15.9 (211) | +1.4 (25) | +18.5 (194) |  |

**M5 — 6. tick-volume surge**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| surge | 479 (46%) | +46.2 / +0.097 | 334 (38%) | +65.3 / +0.195 | -5.9 (176) | +52.1 (303) | +13.2 (64) | +52.1 (270) |  |
| thin | 152 (14%) | +9.3 / +0.061 | 134 (15%) | +18.1 / +0.135 | -8.0 (22) | +17.3 (130) | -0.7 (7) | +18.8 (127) |  |
| usual | 421 (40%) | +72.6 / +0.172 | 402 (46%) | +70.3 / +0.175 | +3.4 (60) | +69.2 (361) | +4.2 (65) | +66.1 (337) |  |

**M5 — 7. time to a high-impact US release (W3 only)**

| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–30 min after |  |  | 46 (5%) | -3.8 / -0.082 |  |  | -0.6 (15) | -3.2 (31) |  |
| 0–30 min before |  |  | 18 (2%) | +1.8 / +0.098 |  |  | +0.7 (5) | +1.1 (13) |  |
| 30–120 min after |  |  | 87 (10%) | +32.8 / +0.377 |  |  | +8.3 (31) | +24.4 (56) |  |
| 30–120 min before |  |  | 18 (2%) | +3.4 / +0.187 |  |  | +2.7 (7) | +0.7 (11) |  |
| clear |  |  | 701 (81%) | +119.5 / +0.171 |  |  | +5.6 (78) | +114.0 (623) |  |

### 4.3 Verdict

**Nominated states: none.** No state on either timeframe holds 8% of both books and loses in all
four slices. By the rule of section 3 there is no replay and nothing ships.

What the tables do say (in-book description, not a decision):

- **M15, after the daily-trend veto, has no losing pocket left in these seven views.** The only
  clearly negative cell is trades against the weekly trend in 2019–2023 (−18.3R over 58 trades),
  5% of the book and positive since 2024. Trades with the four-hour trend earn +0.18R to +0.29R
  each against +0.09R to +0.11R against it: weaker, still positive.
- **M5 earns its R where everything already agrees.** With the weekly trend +0.16R to +0.21R per
  trade, against it +0.03R to +0.04R; with the four-hour trend +0.19R to +0.24R, against it
  +0.01R to +0.04R; when the 60-day move runs against the trade, 0.00R (about 28% of the book).
  Those against-the-tide M5 trades are flat, not losing, which is the same picture the formal
  daily-trend test gave on M5: removing them removes no loss, and it made the worst losing run
  deeper. They stay.
- **M5's profit sits near the 20-day extreme in the trade's direction** (+0.23R to +0.30R per
  trade against +0.04R to +0.09R elsewhere). This repeats the 2026-08-04 finding that the best
  trades are the stretched runs: a "do not chase" filter would cut the part of the book that pays.
- **Volume and news timing separate nothing reliably.** A volume surge is the best state in
  2019–2023 on M15 and the middle state since; trades 30 to 120 minutes after a major US release
  look good on both timeframes (+0.38R each) on 75 and 87 trades, and trades in the half hour
  after a release are slightly negative on M5 (−3.8R over 46 trades, 5% of the book, below the
  8% bar). Neither is a rule.

So the daily chart was the one piece of missing context that paid, on M15. Weekly and four-hour
context add nothing on top of it there, and nothing on M5 that survives the rule.