# New data sources for the direction call — a report-only study, 2026-10-01

Owner decision 2026-09-30: after the daily-trend work, study new data sources and report; nothing
ships from this file. The engine reads gold's own price and nothing else. The question here is
whether anything OUTSIDE gold's own chart tells the direction better than gold's chart already
does. Sections 1 to 3 were written before any data was fetched.

## 1. Sources

| # | Source | What it is | Where from | When a value is usable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dollar | EUR/USD daily candles, read upside down (a falling EUR/USD is a rising dollar) | Oanda v20 candles, the live feed's own token | daily close + 0 (same rule as gold's daily bars) |
| 2 | Silver | XAG/USD daily candles | Oanda v20 | daily close |
| 3 | US 10-year note | USB10Y_USD daily candles (price up = yields down), if Oanda offers it | Oanda v20 | daily close |
| 4 | Real yield | US 10-year inflation-indexed yield, `DFII10` | FRED (public CSV) | the day's value from two days later (it is published the next US afternoon) |
| 5 | Broad dollar index | `DTWEXBGS` | FRED | same two-day rule |
| 6 | Gold fund holdings | SPDR Gold Shares, shares outstanding (each share is a fixed slice of the vault, so creations and redemptions are the fund's gold flow) | the fund manager's public history file (`navhist-us-en-gld.xlsx`); the older tonnes archive now serves a PDF | the day's value from two days later |
| 7 | Futures positioning | CFTC disaggregated report, gold (code 088691), managed-money net long | CFTC public reporting site | a Tuesday report from the following Monday |
| 8 | Oanda client positioning | position book for XAU_USD: the share of Oanda clients' open gold positions that are long (by count) | Oanda v20 `/v3/instruments/XAU_USD/positionBook`, one snapshot per day at 00:00 UTC | at once (the snapshot is taken at the daily close) |

Everything fetched stays in the session scratchpad. Nothing is added to the repository's cache.

Amendment before any analysis (2026-10-01, after the access probes and nothing else): the plan
expected source 8 to be gone. It is not: on the practice API the position book answers for every
date probed back to 2017, so it joins the study with the definition below. The probe printed ten
long-share readings (between 60% and 75% long, higher at higher gold prices) and no forward
returns; that is everything that was seen before the definition was fixed. Source 6 uses shares
outstanding instead of tonnes because that is the file that can still be downloaded.

## 2. One state per source

The same shape as the shipped daily trend, so the comparison is like for like. For a daily series
`x` (Sunday stub bars dropped for the Oanda candles): `up` when `x` is above its 50-day EMA AND
above its value 60 days earlier, `down` when below both, else `unclear`. Read for gold:

| Source | Gold-friendly state | Gold-hostile state |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar (EUR/USD) | EUR/USD up (dollar falling) | EUR/USD down |
| Silver | up | down |
| 10-year note price | up (yields falling) | down |
| Real yield | down | up |
| Broad dollar index | down | up |
| Fund holdings | shares outstanding above the level 20 trading days earlier | below |
| Futures positioning | managed-money net long above its level 4 reports earlier | below |
| Oanda client positioning | long share `down` (the crowd is cutting longs or adding shorts) | long share `up` (the crowd is adding longs) |

The positioning state is read the contrarian way on purpose and before looking: small traders
tend to buy dips and sell rallies, so a growing long share is expected to go with a falling price.
Test A is two-sided, so if the truth is the other way round it will show as a real spread with the
opposite sign and is reported as such; Test B is judged on the declared reading only.

## 3. Two tests and the verdict rule

**Test A — forward move of gold.** Every closed gold daily bar from 2019-01-01 to 2026-08-07.
Forward move = gold's close 5 days later minus today's close, in units of gold's own 14-day ATR
(and the same for 20 days). For each source: mean forward move on gold-friendly days minus mean
on gold-hostile days, (i) over all days and (ii) inside each of gold's own three daily-trend
states (rising / falling / unclear), in two eras (2019–2023, 2024–2026). The spread is called real
only if it has the same sign in both eras and its t-value, computed on every fifth day so the
5-day windows do not overlap, is at least 2 in each era.

**Test B — the shipped books.** M15 LONG (daily-trend veto on, 1473 trades) and M5 LONG (1052
trades), $0.65. Each trade is labelled `friendly` / `hostile` / `unclear` from the source state at
its decision time, mirrored for a SELL. A source is interesting on a timeframe only if its
`hostile` trades are at least 8% of the book and lose (total R < 0) in BOTH eras.

**Verdict per source.**
- `GO` (worth a pre-registered campaign and the feed work it needs) only if Test A calls the
  spread real INSIDE gold's own trend states (that is the "beyond gold's own chart" part) AND
  Test B finds the hostile trades losing in both eras on at least one timeframe.
- `WATCH` if exactly one of the two holds.
- `NO-GO` otherwise, or when the source cannot be fetched reliably.
A `GO` is a ticket to a campaign, never a shipping decision: a live feed for a second instrument
needs its own provider path, cache, staleness rule and live == backtest proof.

Two points of method were fixed while the analysis script was written, before it produced any
output. (1) The broad dollar index is published weekly (the H.10 release, on Monday, for the week
before), not daily, so the "two-day rule" of the table would have looked ahead: each week's final
state is used from the Tuesday after that week. (2) "Inside gold's own trend states" is computed
as one stratified number per era: the forward move minus the mean forward move of that day's gold
trend state (rising / unclear / falling), friendly days against hostile days, t-value on every
fifth day. That is the column the verdict reads; the unstratified spread is printed beside it.

## 4. Results

Run 2026-10-01. Fetched into the session scratchpad: Oanda daily candles for EUR_USD, XAG_USD,
USB10Y_USD and XAU_USD (2015-01-01 → 2026-09-30, about 3,650 bars each, about 600 Sunday stubs
dropped); the Oanda XAU_USD position book, one snapshot per day at 00:00 UTC from 2018-06-01
(2,609 days asked, 97.7% answered at exactly 00:00, the rest from the last snapshot up to six
hours earlier, 45 days with none, all before mid-2022); FRED `DFII10` and `DTWEXBGS`; the gold
fund's history file (5,540 days since 2004); 1,059 weekly CFTC reports since 2006.

### 4.1 What was fetched

| Source | Days with a state, 2019-01-01 → 2026-08-07 | friendly / unclear / hostile | Same side as gold's own daily trend (days where both are clear) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | 1973 | 37% / 18% / 44% | 67% of 1363 |
| 2 silver | 1973 | 49% / 21% / 31% | 88% of 1387 |
| 3 10-year note price | 1973 | 39% / 16% / 46% | 73% of 1398 |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | 1973 | 42% / 20% / 39% | 73% of 1353 |
| 5 broad dollar index | 1973 | 39% / 19% / 42% | 62% of 1362 |
| 6 gold fund shares | 1973 | 51% / 0% / 49% | 77% of 1639 |
| 7 futures positioning | 1973 | 51% / 0% / 49% | 59% of 1644 |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | 1973 | 37% / 15% / 48% | 36% of 1414 |

Gold itself, same days: rising 58%, unclear 17%, falling 25%; mean 5-day forward move +0.27 ATR (rising +0.32, unclear +0.30, falling +0.14).

### 4.2 Test A — gold's forward move, friendly days minus hostile days (in daily ATRs)

| Source | Era | Days friendly / hostile | 5-day spread, all days (t) | 5-day spread inside gold's trend states (t) | 20-day spread inside gold's trend states (t) | Real? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | 2019–2023 | 443 / 623 | -0.04 (-0.3) | -0.05 (-0.4) | +0.35 (+0.7) | |
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | 2024–2026 | 296 / 249 | +0.21 (+0.7) | +0.20 (+0.7) | +0.80 (+0.5) | |
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | verdict | | | same sign in both eras: no; |t| ≥ 2 in both: no | | not real |
| 2 silver | 2019–2023 | 548 / 449 | -0.21 (-0.9) | -0.25 (-1.0) | -1.00 (-1.2) | |
| 2 silver | 2024–2026 | 411 / 160 | -0.10 (-0.7) | -0.20 (-0.7) | -0.64 (-0.2) | |
| 2 silver | verdict | | | same sign in both eras: yes; |t| ≥ 2 in both: no | | not real |
| 3 10-year note price | 2019–2023 | 515 / 603 | +0.08 (+0.3) | +0.04 (+0.1) | +0.46 (+0.5) | |
| 3 10-year note price | 2024–2026 | 253 / 295 | +0.23 (+0.4) | +0.17 (+0.4) | +1.02 (-0.2) | |
| 3 10-year note price | verdict | | | same sign in both eras: yes; |t| ≥ 2 in both: no | | not real |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | 2019–2023 | 583 / 468 | +0.04 (+0.4) | +0.01 (+0.2) | -0.20 (-0.5) | |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | 2024–2026 | 242 / 294 | +0.20 (+0.7) | +0.14 (+0.6) | +1.22 (+0.5) | |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | verdict | | | same sign in both eras: yes; |t| ≥ 2 in both: no | | not real |
| 5 broad dollar index | 2019–2023 | 497 / 536 | +0.03 (-0.1) | +0.02 (-0.1) | -0.12 (-0.5) | |
| 5 broad dollar index | 2024–2026 | 269 / 293 | +0.02 (-0.2) | +0.04 (-0.0) | +0.71 (+0.1) | |
| 5 broad dollar index | verdict | | | same sign in both eras: yes; |t| ≥ 2 in both: no | | not real |
| 6 gold fund shares | 2019–2023 | 609 / 681 | +0.20 (+1.4) | +0.17 (+1.2) | +0.37 (+1.0) | |
| 6 gold fund shares | 2024–2026 | 393 / 281 | +0.40 (+1.7) | +0.36 (+1.8) | +1.09 (-0.1) | |
| 6 gold fund shares | verdict | | | same sign in both eras: yes; |t| ≥ 2 in both: no | | not real |
| 7 futures positioning | 2019–2023 | 640 / 656 | +0.06 (+0.0) | +0.04 (-0.1) | +1.03 (+0.6) | |
| 7 futures positioning | 2024–2026 | 369 / 308 | -0.01 (+0.3) | +0.11 (+0.8) | +1.23 (+1.7) | |
| 7 futures positioning | verdict | | | same sign in both eras: yes; |t| ≥ 2 in both: no | | not real |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | 2019–2023 | 636 / 428 | +0.20 (+1.2) | +0.19 (+1.1) | +0.53 (+0.1) | |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | 2024–2026 | 97 / 516 | -0.01 (-0.6) | +0.33 (+0.3) | n/a (too few friendly days) | |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | verdict | | | same sign in both eras: yes; |t| ≥ 2 in both: no | | not real |

### 4.3 Test B — the shipped books, by the source's state at the trade's decision time


**M15 LONG (daily-trend veto on): 1473 trades, +223.3R** (era A = 2019–2023: 728 trades, +36.8R; era B = 2024–2026: 745 trades, +186.6R)

| Source | Trade state | Trades (share) | Total R / mean | Era A R (trades) | Era B R (trades) | Hostile ≥ 8% and losing in both eras |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | friendly | 725 (49%) | +127.3 / +0.176 | +32.0 (345) | +95.4 (380) |  |
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | unclear | 252 (17%) | +13.0 / +0.052 | -15.3 (127) | +28.3 (125) |  |
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | hostile | 496 (34%) | +83.0 / +0.167 | +20.1 (256) | +62.9 (240) | no |
| 2 silver | friendly | 937 (64%) | +154.9 / +0.165 | +26.8 (406) | +128.0 (531) |  |
| 2 silver | unclear | 304 (21%) | +1.3 / +0.004 | -18.2 (196) | +19.5 (108) |  |
| 2 silver | hostile | 232 (16%) | +67.1 / +0.289 | +28.1 (126) | +39.0 (106) | no |
| 3 10-year note price | friendly | 753 (51%) | +107.0 / +0.142 | +34.6 (397) | +72.4 (356) |  |
| 3 10-year note price | unclear | 254 (17%) | +39.1 / +0.154 | +11.3 (121) | +27.8 (133) |  |
| 3 10-year note price | hostile | 466 (32%) | +77.2 / +0.166 | -9.2 (210) | +86.4 (256) | no |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | friendly | 723 (49%) | +97.7 / +0.135 | +45.5 (405) | +52.2 (318) |  |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | unclear | 313 (21%) | +30.8 / +0.098 | -12.5 (142) | +43.2 (171) |  |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | hostile | 437 (30%) | +94.9 / +0.217 | +3.8 (181) | +91.1 (256) | no |
| 5 broad dollar index | friendly | 647 (44%) | +122.5 / +0.189 | +37.5 (315) | +85.0 (332) |  |
| 5 broad dollar index | unclear | 277 (19%) | +17.2 / +0.062 | -4.7 (168) | +21.8 (109) |  |
| 5 broad dollar index | hostile | 549 (37%) | +83.7 / +0.152 | +3.9 (245) | +79.8 (304) | no |
| 6 gold fund shares | friendly | 1031 (70%) | +183.6 / +0.178 | +52.7 (519) | +130.9 (512) |  |
| 6 gold fund shares | unclear | 7 (0%) | -4.7 / -0.668 | -2.9 (4) | -1.8 (3) |  |
| 6 gold fund shares | hostile | 435 (30%) | +44.4 / +0.102 | -13.1 (205) | +57.5 (230) | no |
| 7 futures positioning | friendly | 789 (54%) | +115.5 / +0.146 | +22.3 (422) | +93.3 (367) |  |
| 7 futures positioning | unclear | 0 (0%) | +0.0 /  | +0.0 (0) | +0.0 (0) |  |
| 7 futures positioning | hostile | 684 (46%) | +107.8 / +0.158 | +14.5 (306) | +93.3 (378) | no |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | friendly | 394 (27%) | +41.7 / +0.106 | +15.9 (326) | +25.9 (68) |  |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | unclear | 198 (13%) | +26.9 / +0.136 | +13.7 (122) | +13.2 (76) |  |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | hostile | 881 (60%) | +154.7 / +0.176 | +7.2 (280) | +147.5 (601) | no |

**M5 LONG: 1052 trades, +128.1R** (era A = 2019–2023: 258 trades, -10.4R; era B = 2024–2026: 794 trades, +138.5R)

| Source | Trade state | Trades (share) | Total R / mean | Era A R (trades) | Era B R (trades) | Hostile ≥ 8% and losing in both eras |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | friendly | 439 (42%) | +85.3 / +0.194 | -11.5 (103) | +96.8 (336) |  |
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | unclear | 211 (20%) | +28.6 / +0.136 | -0.9 (34) | +29.5 (177) |  |
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | hostile | 402 (38%) | +14.2 / +0.035 | +2.0 (121) | +12.2 (281) | no |
| 2 silver | friendly | 556 (53%) | +89.3 / +0.161 | -7.6 (113) | +96.8 (443) |  |
| 2 silver | unclear | 143 (14%) | +7.3 / +0.051 | -9.9 (45) | +17.2 (98) |  |
| 2 silver | hostile | 353 (34%) | +31.5 / +0.089 | +7.1 (100) | +24.4 (253) | no |
| 3 10-year note price | friendly | 432 (41%) | +51.6 / +0.120 | -0.6 (119) | +52.2 (313) |  |
| 3 10-year note price | unclear | 169 (16%) | -9.5 / -0.056 | -13.7 (49) | +4.2 (120) |  |
| 3 10-year note price | hostile | 451 (43%) | +86.0 / +0.191 | +3.9 (90) | +82.1 (361) | no |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | friendly | 377 (36%) | +4.2 / +0.011 | -15.0 (115) | +19.2 (262) |  |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | unclear | 186 (18%) | +32.3 / +0.174 | -7.0 (45) | +39.3 (141) |  |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | hostile | 489 (46%) | +91.6 / +0.187 | +11.6 (98) | +80.0 (391) | no |
| 5 broad dollar index | friendly | 447 (42%) | +131.2 / +0.294 | -0.7 (91) | +131.9 (356) |  |
| 5 broad dollar index | unclear | 170 (16%) | +8.1 / +0.047 | -6.0 (40) | +14.1 (130) |  |
| 5 broad dollar index | hostile | 435 (41%) | -11.2 / -0.026 | -3.7 (127) | -7.5 (308) | YES |
| 6 gold fund shares | friendly | 600 (57%) | +86.9 / +0.145 | -15.8 (142) | +102.7 (458) |  |
| 6 gold fund shares | unclear | 3 (0%) | -1.8 / -0.608 | +0.0 (0) | -1.8 (3) |  |
| 6 gold fund shares | hostile | 449 (43%) | +43.0 / +0.096 | +5.4 (116) | +37.6 (333) | no |
| 7 futures positioning | friendly | 493 (47%) | +41.1 / +0.083 | -17.0 (120) | +58.1 (373) |  |
| 7 futures positioning | unclear | 0 (0%) | +0.0 /  | +0.0 (0) | +0.0 (0) |  |
| 7 futures positioning | hostile | 559 (53%) | +87.0 / +0.156 | +6.6 (138) | +80.4 (421) | no |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | friendly | 313 (30%) | +17.9 / +0.057 | -1.9 (99) | +19.8 (214) |  |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | unclear | 92 (9%) | +2.3 / +0.025 | +0.5 (40) | +1.9 (52) |  |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | hostile | 647 (62%) | +107.9 / +0.167 | -8.9 (119) | +116.9 (528) | no |

### 4.4 Verdict per source

| Source | Test A: real spread beyond gold's own trend | Test B: hostile trades ≥ 8% and losing in both eras (M15 / M5) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 dollar (EUR/USD) | no | no / no | NO-GO |
| 2 silver | no | no / no | NO-GO |
| 3 10-year note price | no | no / no | NO-GO |
| 4 real yield (DFII10) | no | no / no | NO-GO |
| 5 broad dollar index | no | no / yes | WATCH |
| 6 gold fund shares | no | no / no | NO-GO |
| 7 futures positioning | no | no / no | NO-GO |
| 8 Oanda client positioning | no | no / no | NO-GO |

### 4.5 The one flag, looked at more closely (after the fact: description, not a test)

**M5 LONG: gold's own daily trend (rows) x 5 broad dollar index (columns)** — total R (trades)

| Gold's own daily trend vs the trade | dollar friendly | dollar unclear | dollar hostile |
|---|---|---|---|
| with | +118.8 (352) | +1.9 (105) | -0.1 (215) |
| unclear | +6.8 (33) | -2.1 (12) | +2.3 (73) |
| against | +5.6 (62) | +8.3 (53) | -13.3 (147) |

**M5 LONG: gold's own daily trend (rows) x 1 dollar (EUR/USD) (columns)** — total R (trades)

| Gold's own daily trend vs the trade | dollar friendly | dollar unclear | dollar hostile |
|---|---|---|---|
| with | +76.8 (372) | +23.0 (109) | +20.7 (191) |
| unclear | +4.5 (37) | -5.5 (19) | +7.9 (62) |
| against | +4.0 (30) | +11.1 (83) | -14.4 (149) |

**M5 LONG: broad-dollar hostile trades by year** — 2019: +1.4 (14); 2020: -3.4 (45); 2021: -0.6 (21); 2022: -1.1 (36); 2023: -0.1 (11); 2024: +3.5 (68); 2025: -8.5 (107); 2026: -2.4 (133)
**M5 LONG: broad-dollar friendly trades by year** — 2019: -1.5 (3); 2020: +0.0 (45); 2021: -0.0 (9); 2022: +0.0 (7); 2023: +0.7 (27); 2024: -0.1 (19); 2025: +40.3 (160); 2026: +91.7 (177)
   W3 friendly: 397 trades (46%), +145.1R, halves +8.2 / +136.9
   W3 unclear: 150 trades (17%), +15.6R, halves -3.0 / +18.7
   W3 hostile: 323 trades (37%), -7.1R, halves +11.6 / -18.7

**M15 LONG (veto on): gold's own daily trend (rows) x 5 broad dollar index (columns)** — total R (trades)

| Gold's own daily trend vs the trade | dollar friendly | dollar unclear | dollar hostile |
|---|---|---|---|
| with | +93.2 (561) | +48.0 (196) | +68.5 (416) |
| unclear | +29.3 (86) | -30.8 (81) | +15.2 (133) |
| against | +0.0 (0) | +0.0 (0) | +0.0 (0) |

**M15 LONG (veto on): gold's own daily trend (rows) x 1 dollar (EUR/USD) (columns)** — total R (trades)

| Gold's own daily trend vs the trade | dollar friendly | dollar unclear | dollar hostile |
|---|---|---|---|
| with | +99.4 (635) | +41.8 (176) | +68.5 (362) |
| unclear | +27.9 (90) | -28.8 (76) | +14.5 (134) |
| against | +0.0 (0) | +0.0 (0) | +0.0 (0) |

**M15 LONG (veto on): broad-dollar hostile trades by year** — 2019: +12.5 (57); 2020: +11.5 (74); 2021: -6.7 (44); 2022: -9.2 (43); 2023: -4.1 (27); 2024: +65.1 (179); 2025: +9.9 (95); 2026: +4.8 (30)
**M15 LONG (veto on): broad-dollar friendly trades by year** — 2019: +4.7 (16); 2020: +25.0 (114); 2021: -8.9 (46); 2022: +8.2 (51); 2023: +8.5 (88); 2024: -4.4 (56); 2025: +52.1 (192); 2026: +37.3 (84)
   W3 friendly: 373 trades (45%), +103.5R, halves +4.0 / +99.4
   W3 unclear: 130 trades (16%), +28.2R, halves +6.2 / +22.1
   W3 hostile: 321 trades (39%), +73.4R, halves +66.5 / +6.9

### 4.6 Reading

- **Nothing outside gold's own chart passes Test A.** For all eight sources the 5-day forward move
  of gold on "friendly" days is not reliably different from "hostile" days once gold's own daily
  trend is accounted for (largest t-values 1.2 and 1.8, the gold fund's share count; everything
  else is under 1.2 in at least one era). The familiar stories (a falling dollar, falling real
  yields, rising silver, fund inflows) describe gold's past move well: they sit on the same side
  as gold's own daily trend on 59% to 88% of clear days. They do not add a forecast to it.
- **Oanda client positioning is available but not useful in this form.** The plan expected the
  endpoint to be gone; it answers, with history back to 2017. Read the contrarian way (a growing
  long share is hostile), the spread has the expected sign and no weight (t 1.1 and 0.3), and in
  2024–2026 the crowd was adding longs on 516 of 613 clear days while gold rose. The trades taken
  on those "hostile" days are the best part of both books. Only the daily state was tested; the
  intraday snapshots (one per hour) were not.
- **The one flag is the broad dollar index on M5** (`WATCH`): the 435 M5 trades taken against the
  dollar's trend lost 11.2R in total and lost in both eras, while the 447 taken with it made
  +131.2R. The closer look shows what that is. All of the M5 profit sits in one cell: trades with
  gold's own daily trend AND with the dollar's trend (+118.8R over 352 trades); the same trades
  against the dollar's trend made nothing (−0.1R over 215). But every R of the friendly side was
  earned in 2025 and 2026 (+40.3R and +91.7R), that is inside the one long rally from 2,600 to the
  March 2026 peak (in 2025 the broad dollar fell 7.5% while gold rose 65%); before 2025 the
  dollar's state separates nothing on M5 because the M5 book earned nothing at all. In the 3-year
  window the hostile trades are positive in the first half (+11.6R) and negative only in the
  second (−18.7R). On M15 the same state separates nothing: the hostile
  trades made +65R in 2024 alone, a year when gold and the dollar rose together. The timelier
  dollar measure (EUR/USD) shows the same lean on M5 without losing in both eras. So this is one
  market phase seen from another angle, not a second source of information; it stays a
  hypothesis, and it is the same picture as the context screens: M5 pays only when everything
  agrees and has paid only since 2025.

### 4.7 Verdict

| Source | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar via EUR/USD | NO-GO | no forward spread; hostile trades are not losers in both eras |
| Silver | NO-GO | 88% the same information as gold's own trend; the spread has the wrong sign |
| US 10-year note | NO-GO | no forward spread |
| Real yield | NO-GO | no forward spread; on M5 the "hostile" trades are the better ones |
| Broad dollar index | WATCH | M5 trades against it lose in both eras, but the forward test finds nothing and the effect is the 2025–2026 phase; weekly data, four to ten days old when used |
| Gold fund share count | NO-GO | the nearest miss in the forward test (t 1.2 and 1.8), nothing on the books |
| Futures positioning | NO-GO | no forward spread, no difference on the books |
| Oanda client positioning | NO-GO in this daily form | available, but the contrarian reading failed in the rising years |

**Nothing ships and no feed is added.** The direction call was improved by the one input that
passed a formal test, gold's own daily chart on M15. If the M5 question is taken up again, the
honest test is forward: `signals.daily_trend` is now logged on every scan, so a few months of live
M5 rows can be split by the daily trend, and by the dollar's trend after the fact, without touching
the signal code.