# Backtest Re-pin on Oanda bars — verification (Phase 3)

**Date:** 2026-08-14 (verification; original books were generated 2026-08-04, current-HEAD M5 canonical book exported 2026-08-14)
**Scope:** confirm the pinned Oanda books exist, satisfy rule 1, and quantify the Oanda↔TD delta that motivated them.

## Re-pin state

The re-pin is **already done** — full Oanda-bar books exist in `backtest/oanda_*.csv` for M5/M15/H1/H4, at both cost assumptions, with in-sample (12mo), out-of-sample (2024-06 → 2025-03), and 5-year variants. The shipped configs are `m5` (pullback OFF — `_nopb`) and `m15`.

### M5 canonical-reference reconciliation (2026-08-14)

The dated current-HEAD export `backtest/oanda_m5_12mo_065_nopb_20260814.csv` is the canonical M5 12-month reference going forward: **577 trades, +106.82R, PF 1.51**, with both 12-month halves positive (+50.80R / +56.02R; PF 1.46 / 1.55). It covers 2025-08-14 → 2026-08-14, runs the shipped M5 factory (XAU_PB off), charges $0.65 round trip, and uses next-open/raw-path/close-only-trail realism unchanged.

Earlier M5 snapshots (`oanda_m5_12mo_065_nopb.csv`: 586 / +98.11R / 1.45; `m5_12mo_shipped.csv`: 588 / +96.60R / 1.44; and the 555 / +98.64R ledger entry) remain historical evidence from different HEADs around the weekend-calendar and related QA work. They must not be cited as the current-HEAD reference.

### Rule-1 summary at realistic cost ($0.65 round trip)

| TF | 12mo in-sample | 12mo H1 / H2 | OOS (2024-06→2025-03) |
|---|---|---|---|
| M15 | +73.93R PF 1.53 | +66.71 / +7.23 (PF 1.10) | +38.77R PF 1.36 |
| M5 (shipped, nopb) | +106.82R PF 1.51 (current HEAD) | +50.80 / +56.02 (PF 1.46 / 1.55) | +9.52R PF 1.34 |
| H1 | +23.97R PF 1.55 | — | +5.15R PF 1.13 |
| H4 | +16.14R PF 2.28 | — | +1.31R PF 1.14 |

- **M5 (shipped)** passes rule 1 cleanly: both current-HEAD 12mo halves positive with PF ≥ 1.3, and OOS positive with PF 1.34.
- **M15** passes in-sample and OOS (PF 1.53 / 1.36) but its second half is soft (PF 1.10) — positive R, below the 1.3 bar. Pre-existing condition, not a re-pin artifact.
- **H1/H4** pass in-sample but OOS is marginal (PF 1.13–1.14) — consistent with the standing "H4 unproven for auto-execution" note.

## Oanda ↔ Twelve Data trade-level delta

Not worth a trade-by-trade book diff: Phase 1 already showed the two feeds disagree on **bar direction** 19% of the time on M5 (11% on M15), with a ~$3 mean / ~$1 systematic close gap. A TD-pinned book is a different instrument's book — this is the documented re-pin motivator, and the Oanda books above are the replacement baseline. A formal trade-level reconciliation would show near-total mismatch and add no decision value.

## Deliverable status

- [x] Re-pinned books exist on Oanda bars (12mo + OOS + 5yr, $0.30 + $0.65).
- [x] Rule 1 verified for the shipped TFs (M5 clean; M15 in-sample+OOS pass, H2 soft; H1/H4 OOS marginal).
- [x] Cost model: $0.65 matches measured Oanda spread (~$0.65–0.72); $0.30 retained for cross-book comparability.
- [x] Oanda↔TD delta quantified (Phase 1) — no further book diff needed.

Remaining Phase-3 follow-up: none. Owner decision 2026-08-14 retained dual reporting: $0.65 is the realistic headline while $0.30 remains for TD-era cross-book comparability and the live TP spread gate.