""" ForexBot2 — Signal Aggregator ============================== Combines multi-timeframe technical analysis with optional news context into a graded actionable signal. """ import hashlib import json import logging import os from dataclasses import asdict, dataclass, field from datetime import datetime, timezone from typing import Dict, List, Optional from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo import pandas as pd _NY_TZ = ZoneInfo("America/New_York") from chart_patterns import detect_chart_pattern from config import PlatformConfig, SignalStrength, Timeframe from providers import BaseDataProvider, make_data_provider from engine import TechnicalEngine, TechnicalAnalysis, regime_weight_table from news_engine import NewsEngine, FundamentalContext import signal_log logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) def _is_forex_weekend(now_utc: datetime) -> bool: """Gold/FX market closed for the weekend: Friday 17:00 → Sunday 18:00 NEW YORK time (= Fri 21:00 UTC in US summer, 22:00 in winter — matches measured Oanda feed behavior; 2026-08-04 audit I43). Deliberate copy of providers.base._is_forex_weekend — a Module 21 test asserts the copies agree across DST transitions.""" ny = now_utc.astimezone(_NY_TZ) wd = ny.weekday() if wd == 4: # Friday return ny.hour >= 17 if wd == 5: # Saturday return True if wd == 6: # Sunday return ny.hour < 18 return False @dataclass class TradeSetup: pair: str display_name: str direction: str # "BUY" / "SELL" entry_price: float stop_loss: float take_profit_1: float take_profit_2: float risk_reward: float risk_pips: float reward_pips: float pip_value: float # Entry archetype — selects trail params and explains the setup to # advisory consumers. setup_pattern is populated only by XAU_CP. strategy: str = "GENERIC" setup_pattern: Optional[str] = None # Strategy cost assumption, not a broker/data-provider quote. round_trip_cost: Optional[float] = None # Trailing exit params stamped from the PRODUCING config, so per-TF # factory overrides (e.g. M15 arm 0.70, M5 dist 0.85) reach every # consumer. None = legacy/unstamped setup — formatters fall back to # platform defaults; 0.0 means trailing is genuinely disabled. trail_arm_r: Optional[float] = None trail_dist_r: Optional[float] = None # Post-decision stake multiplier from position_sizing (advisory # overlay). None = unsized — every gate/exit path ignores it, and # the backtester's R accounting is unaffected unless it opts in. stake_multiplier: Optional[float] = None @dataclass class SignalReport: symbol: str display_name: str timestamp: str primary_signal: SignalStrength = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL primary_score: float = 0.0 primary_confidence: float = 0.0 mtf_agreement: bool = False mtf_signals: Dict[str, SignalStrength] = field(default_factory=dict) mtf_scores: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=dict) primary_analysis: Optional[TechnicalAnalysis] = None confirmation_analyses: List[TechnicalAnalysis] = field(default_factory=list) event_risk: str = "clear" event_description: str = "" news_sentiment: float = 0.0 news_description: str = "" news_summary: str = "" # LLM market-context blurb (display-only) # LLM agent-panel consensus (advisory/DISPLAY-ONLY). Populated # post-hoc by consumers via agent_panel.attach_panel — NEVER inside # analyze_from_dataframes (backtest parity) and never read by any # gate or scoring path. panel_verdict: str = "" # "AGREE" / "NEUTRAL" / "OPPOSE" / "" panel_confidence: float = 0.0 panel_rationale: str = "" panel_takes: List[Dict] = field(default_factory=list) panel_created_at: str = "" panel_cache_status: str = "" panel_payload_hash: str = "" panel_verdict_source: str = "" # "macro" / "chair" / "" # Violent-move watch line (advisory/DISPLAY-ONLY). Stamped post-hoc # by surfaces via violent_watch.attach_watch — never populated # inside analyze_from_dataframes (backtest parity) and never read by # any gate, grade or setup generator. watch_line: str = "" final_signal: SignalStrength = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL final_score: float = 0.0 final_confidence: float = 0.0 action_recommendation: str = "" signal_quality: str = "" # A+, A, B, C, D, F trade_setup: Optional[TradeSetup] = None bullish_reasons: List[str] = field(default_factory=list) bearish_reasons: List[str] = field(default_factory=list) warnings: List[str] = field(default_factory=list) # Warnings the XAU_CP acceptance removed from `warnings` (metadata # only — logged so the gates a CP trade bypassed stay auditable). cleaned_warnings: List[str] = field(default_factory=list) current_price: float = 0.0 spread_estimate: float = 0.0 market_regime: str = "" volatility_regime: str = "" exhaustion_count: int = 0 # Record-keeping only (no gate reads these): the penalty tags that # fired in _compute_final_signal (tag -> RAW pre-decay amount), the # decayed total actually subtracted from confidence, and whether the # momentum-fading half of the exhaustion block was true. penalty_tags: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=dict) penalty_total: float = 0.0 momentum_fading: bool = False class SignalAggregator: """Master aggregator for live signal analysis.""" def __init__(self, config: PlatformConfig): self.config = config self.data_provider = make_data_provider(config) self.tech_engine = TechnicalEngine(config.technical) self._news_engine: Optional[NewsEngine] = None # lazy def _get_news_engine(self) -> NewsEngine: if self._news_engine is None: self._news_engine = NewsEngine(self.config.news) return self._news_engine # ── Public: live mode entry point ────────────────────────────── def analyze_pair( self, symbol: Optional[str] = None, log_source: Optional[str] = None, ) -> SignalReport: """Live-mode entry: fetch all needed timeframes then delegate. Every report produced here (including weekend/day-filter early returns) is persisted to the signal-history DB via _log_signal — fail-safe, and never reached by the backtester, which calls analyze_from_dataframes directly (live == backtest parity).""" if symbol is None: symbol = self.config.symbol pair_info = self.data_provider.get_pair_info(symbol) now_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc) if pair_info["display"] == "XAU/USD" and self.config.xau_strategy.enabled: xau_cfg = self.config.xau_strategy if xau_cfg.weekend_filter and _is_forex_weekend(now_utc): report = SignalReport( symbol=symbol, display_name=pair_info["display"], timestamp=str(now_utc), ) report.final_signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL report.signal_quality = "F" report.trade_setup = None report.warnings.append("WEEKEND FILTER: XAU/USD market closed — no liquidity") report.action_recommendation = "NO TRADE — Weekend (market closed)" self._log_signal(report, log_source, blocked=True) return report if xau_cfg.allowed_weekdays and now_utc.weekday() not in xau_cfg.allowed_weekdays: day_names = {0: "Mon", 1: "Tue", 2: "Wed", 3: "Thu", 4: "Fri", 5: "Sat", 6: "Sun"} allowed = "/".join(day_names.get(d, str(d)) for d in xau_cfg.allowed_weekdays) report = SignalReport( symbol=symbol, display_name=pair_info["display"], timestamp=str(now_utc), ) report.final_signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL report.signal_quality = "F" report.trade_setup = None report.warnings.append( f"DAY FILTER: {day_names.get(now_utc.weekday(), '?')} not in allowed days ({allowed})" ) report.action_recommendation = f"NO TRADE — Only trading {allowed}" self._log_signal(report, log_source, blocked=True) return report timeframes = [self.config.primary_timeframe] + list( self.config.confirmation_timeframes ) bt = self.config.backtest if bt.regime_filter and bt.regime_filter_timeframe not in timeframes: timeframes.append(bt.regime_filter_timeframe) dfs: Dict[Timeframe, pd.DataFrame] = {} stale_tfs = [] for tf in timeframes: try: df = self.data_provider.fetch_ohlcv(symbol, tf) dfs[tf] = df if not self.data_provider.is_data_fresh(df, symbol, tf): stale_tfs.append(tf.value) except Exception as e: logger.warning(f"Fetch failed for {symbol} {tf.value}: {e}") report = self.analyze_from_dataframes( symbol=symbol, dfs=dfs, use_news=True, ) if stale_tfs: report.warnings.append(f"STALE DATA on {', '.join(stale_tfs)} — signal may be unreliable") if self.config.primary_timeframe.value in stale_tfs: report.final_signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL report.signal_quality = "F" report.trade_setup = None report.warnings.append("Primary timeframe stale — signal suppressed") if bt.regime_filter: self._apply_regime_filter_live(report, dfs) # Session window + blocked hours on the signal bar's CLOSE time — # the exact predicate the backtester's replay loop applies before # each bar, so live and backtest cannot diverge. Bar-close time # (not wall clock) makes manual mid-candle scans behave like # boundary auto-scans. This replaces an older wall-clock filter # that was guarded by a marker string no code wrote. if bt.session_filter and report.primary_analysis is not None: try: bar_close = ( pd.Timestamp(report.timestamp) + pd.Timedelta( seconds=BaseDataProvider.CANDLE_SECONDS[ self.config.primary_timeframe ] ) ) close_h = bar_close.hour _is_xau = pair_info["display"] == "XAU/USD" _blocked = (self.config.xau_strategy.blocked_hours_utc if _is_xau else bt.blocked_hours_utc) outside = not (bt.session_start_hour <= close_h < bt.session_end_hour) if outside or close_h in _blocked: report.warnings.append( f"SESSION FILTER: bar closes {close_h:02}:00 UTC — " + ("outside window" if outside else "blocked hour") ) report.final_signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL report.signal_quality = "F" report.action_recommendation = "NO TRADE — Outside tradeable session" report.trade_setup = None except Exception: # Fail-open by design (an unparseable timestamp shouldn't # kill the scan) but never silently: this filter guards # real money hours. logger.exception( f"{symbol}: live session filter errored — filter SKIPPED this scan" ) self._log_signal(report, log_source, dfs) return report def _log_signal( self, report: SignalReport, source: Optional[str], dataframes: Optional[Dict[Timeframe, pd.DataFrame]] = None, blocked: bool = False, ) -> None: """Persist the scan to the signal-history DB (signal_log.py). Fail-safe by contract — a logging failure must never break a live scan. The news context re-fetch rides the NewsEngine's class-level caches, so it costs nothing within a scan and matches the context the signal just used; if it fails, the row is still written, just without the news JSON blobs. ``blocked`` marks weekend/day early returns: no news fetch, no snapshots — a ~1 KB liveness row (or nothing, per signal_log.log_blocked_scans). A scan whose PRIMARY fetch failed is logged as ``scan_kind`` ``failed`` (price 0, no signal): liveness evidence that readers skip like ``blocked``, so it never pollutes NEUTRAL statistics.""" context = None if not blocked: try: context = self._get_news_engine().get_fundamental_context() except Exception: logger.debug("signal log: news context unavailable", exc_info=True) kind = "blocked" if blocked else "scan" if not blocked and dataframes is not None: primary = dataframes.get(self.config.primary_timeframe) if primary is None or primary.empty: kind = "failed" extra = {"scan_kind": kind} for key, fingerprint in ( ("config_fingerprint", self.gate_config_fingerprint), ("engine_fingerprint", self.engine_config_fingerprint)): try: extra[key] = fingerprint() except Exception: logger.debug("signal log: %s unavailable", key, exc_info=True) signal_log.log_signal( report, context=context, source=source or "live", timeframe=self.config.primary_timeframe.value, dataframes=dataframes, extra=extra, ) def gate_config_fingerprint(self) -> str: """Short hash of the gate configuration this process runs with. Logged on every row so two surfaces disagreeing on the same bar (2026-08-19: the dashboard process applied a different blocked- hours list than the bot for a day) is diagnosable from the DB.""" xs = self.config.xau_strategy bt = self.config.backtest payload = { "primary": self.config.primary_timeframe.value, "confirm": [tf.value for tf in self.config.confirmation_timeframes], "blocked_hours": list(xs.blocked_hours_utc), "sell_blocked_hours": list(xs.sell_blocked_hours_utc), "allowed_weekdays": list(xs.allowed_weekdays), "blocked_regimes": list(xs.blocked_regimes), "sell_blocked_regimes": list(xs.sell_blocked_regimes), "sell_min_quality": list(xs.sell_min_quality), "sell_vol_regimes": list(xs.sell_vol_regimes), "big_candle": xs.big_candle_atr_multiple, "cp": bool(xs.cp_enabled), "pb": bool(xs.m5_pullback_enabled), "session": [bt.session_filter, bt.session_start_hour, bt.session_end_hour], "regime_filter": bool(bt.regime_filter), } return hashlib.sha1( json.dumps(payload, sort_keys=True, default=str).encode("utf-8") ).hexdigest()[:12] def engine_config_fingerprint(self) -> str: """Short hash of the SCORING configuration this process runs with. gate_config_fingerprint covers the post-grade gates; this covers what produced the composite in the first place — indicator parameters, signal thresholds/geometry, the regime weight multipliers actually in force (override included) and the timeframe set. Logged on every row so indicator-weight research can tell which rows share a scoring configuration.""" payload = { "technical": asdict(self.config.technical), "signals": asdict(self.config.signals), "regime_weights": regime_weight_table(self.config.technical), "primary": self.config.primary_timeframe.value, "confirm": [tf.value for tf in self.config.confirmation_timeframes], "display_name": self.config.display_name, } return hashlib.sha1( json.dumps(payload, sort_keys=True, default=str).encode("utf-8") ).hexdigest()[:12] def _apply_regime_filter_live( self, report: SignalReport, dfs: Dict[Timeframe, pd.DataFrame] ) -> None: """If higher-TF ADX is below threshold, downgrade signal to NEUTRAL.""" bt = self.config.backtest regime_tf = bt.regime_filter_timeframe df = dfs.get(regime_tf) if df is None or df.empty: report.warnings.append( f"Regime filter requested but {regime_tf.value} data unavailable" ) return adx_value = self._latest_adx(df, self.config.technical.adx_period) if adx_value is None: report.warnings.append( f"Regime filter: ADX could not be computed on {regime_tf.value}" ) return if adx_value < bt.regime_filter_min_adx: report.warnings.append( f"REGIME FILTER: {regime_tf.value} ADX={adx_value:.1f} < " f"{bt.regime_filter_min_adx:.0f} — market choppy, skipping signal" ) report.final_signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL report.signal_quality = "F" report.action_recommendation = ( f"NO TRADE — Regime filter (ADX {adx_value:.1f} on {regime_tf.value})" ) report.trade_setup = None else: report.bullish_reasons.append( f"Regime: {regime_tf.value} ADX={adx_value:.1f} confirms trending market" ) if report.final_score > 0 else report.bearish_reasons.append( f"Regime: {regime_tf.value} ADX={adx_value:.1f} confirms trending market" ) @staticmethod def _latest_adx(df: pd.DataFrame, period: int = 14) -> Optional[float]: """Wilder ADX on a fresh df; returns the last finite value or None.""" if df is None or len(df) < period * 3: return None high, low, close = df["High"], df["Low"], df["Close"] tr = pd.concat([ high - low, (high - close.shift()).abs(), (low - close.shift()).abs(), ], axis=1).max(axis=1) plus_dm_raw = high.diff() minus_dm_raw = -low.diff() plus_dm = plus_dm_raw.where((plus_dm_raw > minus_dm_raw) & (plus_dm_raw > 0), 0.0) minus_dm = minus_dm_raw.where((minus_dm_raw > plus_dm_raw) & (minus_dm_raw > 0), 0.0) atr_s = tr.ewm(alpha=1/period, min_periods=period, adjust=False).mean() plus_di = 100 * (plus_dm.ewm(alpha=1/period, min_periods=period, adjust=False).mean() / atr_s) minus_di = 100 * (minus_dm.ewm(alpha=1/period, min_periods=period, adjust=False).mean() / atr_s) denom = (plus_di + minus_di).replace(0, float("nan")) dx = 100 * (plus_di - minus_di).abs() / denom adx = dx.ewm(alpha=1/period, min_periods=period, adjust=False).mean().dropna() if adx.empty: return None return float(adx.iloc[-1]) def _detect_big_candle(self, primary_df: pd.DataFrame) -> Optional[tuple]: """Largest abnormal candle in the recent primary-TF window. Returns (timestamp, ratio) of the biggest bar whose range is >= big_candle_atr_multiple x the PRIOR bar's ATR within the last big_candle_lookback_hours of primary-TF bars, else None. The prior-bar ATR (shift 1) matters: a huge candle inflates the Wilder ATR immediately, so comparing against the concurrent ATR under-detects the very bars this gate exists to catch. Pure pandas on the caller-sliced df, so the live path and the backtest replay (which calls analyze_from_dataframes on prefix slices) compute bit-identical answers. The tail slice keeps the per-call cost bounded (~n + 42 rows); min_periods NaNs and short histories degrade to "no trip". """ cfg = self.config.xau_strategy bar_secs = BaseDataProvider.CANDLE_SECONDS[self.config.primary_timeframe] n = max(1, int(cfg.big_candle_lookback_hours * 3600 // bar_secs)) period = self.config.technical.atr_period tail = primary_df.iloc[-(n + 3 * period):] high, low, close = tail["High"], tail["Low"], tail["Close"] tr = pd.concat( [high - low, (high - close.shift()).abs(), (low - close.shift()).abs()], axis=1, ).max(axis=1) atr = tr.ewm(alpha=1 / period, min_periods=period, adjust=False).mean() ratio = (high - low) / atr.shift(1) window = ratio.iloc[-n:] if window.empty: return None max_ratio = window.max() if pd.isna(max_ratio) or max_ratio < cfg.big_candle_atr_multiple: return None return window.idxmax(), float(max_ratio) def _apply_m5_filters(self, report: SignalReport) -> None: """Extra selectivity for M5 — noisy TF needs stronger confirmation.""" if report.signal_quality not in ("A+", "A", "B", "C"): return xau_cfg = self.config.xau_strategy abs_score = abs(report.final_score) # Gate 1: minimum absolute score (M5 composite scores near the # threshold are noise — require a wider margin). if abs_score < xau_cfg.m5_min_abs_score: report.warnings.append( f"M5 FILTER: |score| {abs_score:.1f} < {xau_cfg.m5_min_abs_score:.0f} minimum" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None return # Gate 2: require MTF agreement (M5 alone is too noisy). if xau_cfg.m5_require_mtf and not report.mtf_agreement: report.warnings.append( "M5 FILTER: no MTF agreement — M5 signals require confirmation" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None return # Gate 3: at least one confirmation TF must have a meaningful # score in the same direction — NEUTRAL confirmations don't # count for M5 since they indicate the move isn't visible on # higher timeframes yet. min_conf_score = xau_cfg.m5_min_confirmation_score is_buy = report.final_score > 0 confirmed = False primary_tf = self.config.primary_timeframe.value for tf_val, tf_score in report.mtf_scores.items(): if tf_val == primary_tf: continue if is_buy and tf_score >= min_conf_score: confirmed = True break if not is_buy and tf_score <= -min_conf_score: confirmed = True break if not confirmed: report.warnings.append( "M5 FILTER: no confirmation TF shows directional conviction" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None return # Gate 4: cap SELL quality on M5 — A-grade SELLs enter at the # extreme of temporary dips in gold's macro uptrend and lose # money. B-grade SELLs (weaker conviction, shallower entries) # are marginally profitable. is_sell = report.final_score < 0 if is_sell and report.signal_quality not in xau_cfg.m5_sell_max_quality: report.warnings.append( f"M5 FILTER: SELL quality {report.signal_quality} capped — " f"high-conviction M5 shorts enter at extremes" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None return # Gate 5: block chop-transition volatility. 'high' vol on M5 is # elevated noise without the directional expansion of 'extreme' # — stops get swept before targets (61% WR, negative total in # every backtest window; low/normal/extreme all positive). if report.volatility_regime in xau_cfg.m5_blocked_vol_regimes: report.warnings.append( f"M5 FILTER: '{report.volatility_regime}' volatility — " f"chop-transition regime, stops get swept" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None return # Gate 6: SELL RSI floor — shorting with RSI already < 25 means # entering at the extreme of the dip (same pathology as Gate 4, # visible through RSI instead of quality grade). if is_sell: rsi_ind = report.primary_analysis.indicators.get("rsi") if rsi_ind is not None and rsi_ind.value < xau_cfg.m5_sell_min_rsi: report.warnings.append( f"M5 FILTER: SELL blocked — RSI {rsi_ind.value:.0f} < " f"{xau_cfg.m5_sell_min_rsi:.0f}, dip already extended" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None return # ── M5 pullback entry (XAU_PB) ────────────────────────────────── def _detect_m5_pullback( self, report: SignalReport, primary_df: pd.DataFrame ) -> Optional[Dict]: """Detect a pullback-continuation candidate on the primary TF. Trend intact (EMA alignment >= 3/4, ADX floor) + price retraced to EMA21/KC-mid within the last few bars + resumption bar closed back in trend direction + RSI in the pullback zone (not the extended zone breakout entries fire in). """ cfg = self.config.xau_strategy pa = report.primary_analysis if pa is None or len(primary_df) < 60: return None levels = pa.key_levels atr = levels.get("atr", 0.0) ema_f = levels.get("ema_fast") ema_m = levels.get("ema_medium") ema_s = levels.get("ema_slow") ema_t = levels.get("ema_trend") if not atr or None in (ema_f, ema_m, ema_s, ema_t): return None adx_ind = pa.indicators.get("adx") rsi_ind = pa.indicators.get("rsi") if adx_ind is None or rsi_ind is None: return None if adx_ind.value < cfg.m5_pullback_adx_min: return None close = float(primary_df["Close"].iloc[-1]) open_ = float(primary_df["Open"].iloc[-1]) n_touch = cfg.m5_pullback_touch_bars recent_low = float(primary_df["Low"].iloc[-n_touch:].min()) recent_high = float(primary_df["High"].iloc[-n_touch:].max()) # Pullback swing anchor for SL: extreme of the last 8 bars. pb_low = float(primary_df["Low"].iloc[-8:].min()) pb_high = float(primary_df["High"].iloc[-8:].max()) kc_mid = levels.get("kc_mid", ema_m) lo_atr, hi_atr = cfg.m5_pullback_retrace_atr rsi = rsi_ind.value # BUY: uptrend structure, dip to the band, bullish resumption. up_align = sum([ema_f > ema_m, ema_m > ema_s, ema_s > ema_t, close > ema_t]) if up_align >= 3: touched = recent_low <= max(ema_m, kc_mid) swing_high = float(primary_df["High"].iloc[-40:].max()) depth = (swing_high - pb_low) / atr resumed = close > open_ and close > ema_f lo_z, hi_z = cfg.m5_pullback_rsi_buy if (touched and resumed and lo_atr <= depth <= hi_atr and lo_z <= rsi <= hi_z): return {"direction": "BUY", "anchor": pb_low, "retrace_atr": depth} # SELL: mirrored. dn_align = sum([ema_f < ema_m, ema_m < ema_s, ema_s < ema_t, close < ema_t]) if dn_align >= 3: touched = recent_high >= min(ema_m, kc_mid) swing_low = float(primary_df["Low"].iloc[-40:].min()) depth = (pb_high - swing_low) / atr resumed = close < open_ and close < ema_f lo_z, hi_z = cfg.m5_pullback_rsi_sell if (touched and resumed and lo_atr <= depth <= hi_atr and lo_z <= rsi <= hi_z): return {"direction": "SELL", "anchor": pb_high, "retrace_atr": depth} return None def _try_m5_pullback( self, report: SignalReport, primary_df: pd.DataFrame, pip_value: float ) -> None: """Build an XAU_PB trade setup if a pullback candidate passes gates.""" cfg = self.config.xau_strategy pb = self._detect_m5_pullback(report, primary_df) if pb is None: return direction = pb["direction"] is_buy = direction == "BUY" # Directional composite floor (lower than Gate 1 by design — # price mid-pullback scores weaker on the momentum indicators). signed = report.final_score if is_buy else -report.final_score if signed < cfg.m5_pullback_min_score: return # Confirmation TF must agree (reuse Gate-3 threshold). min_conf = cfg.m5_min_confirmation_score confirmed = False primary_tf = self.config.primary_timeframe.value for tf_val, tf_score in report.mtf_scores.items(): if tf_val == primary_tf: continue if (is_buy and tf_score >= min_conf) or \ (not is_buy and tf_score <= -min_conf): confirmed = True break if not confirmed: return # Never against multi-TF consensus (mirror of gate 6f). sigs = list(report.mtf_signals.values()) bull_n = sum(1 for s in sigs if s in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY)) bear_n = sum(1 for s in sigs if s in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL)) thr = self.config.signals.mtf_agreement_threshold if (is_buy and bear_n >= thr) or (not is_buy and bull_n >= thr): return # Volatility gates match the breakout path. if report.volatility_regime in cfg.m5_blocked_vol_regimes: return if (not is_buy and report.volatility_regime and report.volatility_regime not in cfg.sell_vol_regimes): return atr = report.primary_analysis.key_levels.get("atr", 0.0) entry = report.current_price min_sl_price = self.config.signals.min_sl_pips * pip_value if is_buy: sl_dist = max(entry - (pb["anchor"] - 0.5 * atr), min_sl_price) sl = entry - sl_dist tp1 = entry + 1.5 * sl_dist tp2 = entry + 2.5 * sl_dist else: sl_dist = max((pb["anchor"] + 0.5 * atr) - entry, min_sl_price) sl = entry + sl_dist tp1 = entry - 1.5 * sl_dist tp2 = entry - 2.5 * sl_dist # Spread gate — same economics as the breakout generators. min_tp = (self.config.signals.round_trip_cost * self.config.signals.min_tp_cost_multiple) if 1.5 * sl_dist < min_tp: return report.trade_setup = TradeSetup( pair=report.symbol, display_name=report.display_name, direction=direction, entry_price=entry, stop_loss=sl, take_profit_1=tp1, take_profit_2=tp2, risk_reward=1.5, risk_pips=sl_dist / pip_value, reward_pips=1.5 * sl_dist / pip_value, pip_value=pip_value, strategy="XAU_PB", round_trip_cost=self.config.signals.round_trip_cost, trail_arm_r=self.config.signals.pb_trail_arm_r, trail_dist_r=self.config.signals.pb_trail_dist_r, ) if report.signal_quality not in ("A+", "A", "B"): report.signal_quality = "B" report.final_signal = (SignalStrength.BUY if is_buy else SignalStrength.SELL) report.action_recommendation = ( f"{direction} — pullback continuation entry" ) marker = (f"XAU PULLBACK STRATEGY: retrace {pb['retrace_atr']:.1f} " f"ATR to EMA21/KC-mid, trend resumed") target = report.bullish_reasons if is_buy else report.bearish_reasons target.insert(0, marker) # ── Chart-pattern entry (XAU_CP) ──────────────────────────────── def _try_chart_pattern( self, report: SignalReport, primary_df: pd.DataFrame, pip_value: float ) -> None: """Build an XAU_CP trade setup if a completed chart pattern passes the pair-level protections. Unlike the composite paths there is no minimum-score gate: a reversal pattern completes exactly where the composite is still pointing the old way. Protection comes from the pattern's own structural gates plus the validated directional filters below. """ cfg = self.config.xau_strategy pa = report.primary_analysis if pa is None: return atr = pa.key_levels.get("atr", 0.0) # Same $-ATR floor the swing generator applies (dead tape). if atr < cfg.min_atr_threshold: return pat = detect_chart_pattern(primary_df, atr, cfg) if pat is None: return direction = pat["direction"] is_buy = direction == "BUY" # Never against multi-TF consensus (mirror of gate 6f). sigs = list(report.mtf_signals.values()) bull_n = sum(1 for s in sigs if s in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY)) bear_n = sum(1 for s in sigs if s in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL)) thr = self.config.signals.mtf_agreement_threshold if (is_buy and bear_n >= thr) or (not is_buy and bull_n >= thr): return # Directional protections — gold's macro-uptrend asymmetry is # structural, so the validated SELL gates apply to pattern # shorts too (quiet-vol shorts fade, blocked SELL hours lose). if not is_buy: if (report.volatility_regime and report.volatility_regime not in cfg.sell_vol_regimes): return if cfg.sell_blocked_hours_utc: try: close_h = ( pd.Timestamp(report.timestamp) + pd.Timedelta( seconds=BaseDataProvider.CANDLE_SECONDS[ self.config.primary_timeframe ] ) ).hour except Exception: close_h = None logger.warning( f"{report.symbol}: bar-close hour underivable — " f"CP SELL hour gate FAILS CLOSED (short rejected)" ) if close_h is None or close_h in cfg.sell_blocked_hours_utc: return if self.config.primary_timeframe == Timeframe.M5: rsi_ind = pa.indicators.get("rsi") if rsi_ind is not None and rsi_ind.value < cfg.m5_sell_min_rsi: return # M5 chop-transition volatility block (validated, both ways). if (self.config.primary_timeframe == Timeframe.M5 and report.volatility_regime in cfg.m5_blocked_vol_regimes): return entry = report.current_price min_sl_price = self.config.signals.min_sl_pips * pip_value height = pat["height"] if is_buy: sl_dist = max(entry - (pat["anchor"] - 0.5 * atr), min_sl_price) sl = entry - sl_dist tp1 = entry + height tp2 = entry + 1.5 * height else: sl_dist = max((pat["anchor"] + 0.5 * atr) - entry, min_sl_price) sl = entry + sl_dist tp1 = entry - height tp2 = entry - 1.5 * height # The measured move IS the pattern target — if it can't clear # the RR floor or the spread gate, the pattern is untradeable. rr = height / sl_dist if sl_dist > 0 else 0.0 if rr < self.config.signals.min_rr_ratio - 1e-9: return min_tp = (self.config.signals.round_trip_cost * self.config.signals.min_tp_cost_multiple) if height < min_tp: return report.trade_setup = TradeSetup( pair=report.symbol, display_name=report.display_name, direction=direction, entry_price=entry, stop_loss=sl, take_profit_1=tp1, take_profit_2=tp2, risk_reward=round(rr, 2), risk_pips=sl_dist / pip_value, reward_pips=height / pip_value, pip_value=pip_value, strategy="XAU_CP", setup_pattern=pat["pattern"], round_trip_cost=self.config.signals.round_trip_cost, trail_arm_r=self.config.signals.trail_arm_r, trail_dist_r=self.config.signals.trail_dist_r, ) if report.signal_quality not in ("A+", "A", "B"): report.signal_quality = "B" report.final_signal = (SignalStrength.BUY if is_buy else SignalStrength.SELL) report.action_recommendation = ( f"{direction} — {pat['pattern']} pattern completion" ) marker = (f"XAU CHART PATTERN: {pat['pattern']} " f"({direction}) break of {pat['trigger']:.2f}, " f"height {height / atr:.1f} ATR") target = report.bullish_reasons if is_buy else report.bearish_reasons target.insert(0, marker) self._clean_accepted_cp_warnings(report) @staticmethod def _clean_accepted_cp_warnings(report: SignalReport) -> None: """Drop superseded composite-path warnings after XAU_CP accepts. This is metadata-only. Pattern detection, gates, confidence, exhaustion state, setup geometry, and signal selection are already final when this runs. """ stale_prefixes = ( "SPREAD GATE:", "EXHAUSTION BLOCK", "EXHAUSTED TREND FILTER:", "MTF OPPOSITION:", "SELL FILTER: ", "M5 FILTER: |score|", "M5 FILTER: no MTF agreement", "M5 FILTER: no confirmation TF", "M5 FILTER: SELL quality", "M5 FILTER: SELL blocked", ) extension_prefixes = ( "TREND EXHAUSTION", "NO PULLBACK", "FAR FROM EMA200", "Extended — RSI", "Weak pullback", ) filtered: List[str] = [] dropped: List[str] = [] for warning in report.warnings: if warning.startswith(stale_prefixes): dropped.append(warning) continue if (warning.startswith("REGIME FILTER: '") and warning.endswith("blocked for XAU")): dropped.append(warning) continue if (warning.startswith("M5 FILTER: '") and "volatility" in warning): dropped.append(warning) continue filtered.append(warning) extension_items = [ (index, warning) for index, warning in enumerate(filtered) if warning.startswith(extension_prefixes) ] if not extension_items: report.warnings[:] = filtered report.cleaned_warnings.extend(dropped) return first_index = extension_items[0][0] priority = {prefix: rank for rank, prefix in enumerate(extension_prefixes)} strongest = min( (warning for _, warning in extension_items), key=lambda warning: next( rank for prefix, rank in priority.items() if warning.startswith(prefix)), ) kept = [ warning for warning in filtered if not warning.startswith(extension_prefixes) ] kept.insert(first_index, strongest) dropped.extend( warning for _, warning in extension_items if warning != strongest) report.warnings[:] = kept report.cleaned_warnings.extend(dropped) # ── Public: bar-replayable entry point ───────────────────────── def analyze_from_dataframes( self, symbol: str, dfs: Dict[Timeframe, pd.DataFrame], context: Optional[FundamentalContext] = None, use_news: bool = True, ) -> SignalReport: """ Run the full analysis pipeline on already-fetched dataframes. `dfs` must include the primary timeframe and ideally the confirmation timeframes. Each df is treated as the visible history at decision time — the backtester is responsible for slicing so no future bars leak in. """ pair_info = self.data_provider.get_pair_info(symbol) display = pair_info["display"] pip_value = pair_info["pip_value"] report = SignalReport( symbol=symbol, display_name=display, timestamp=str(datetime.now(timezone.utc)), ) # ── 1. Primary timeframe ─────────────────────────────────── primary_df = dfs.get(self.config.primary_timeframe) if primary_df is None or primary_df.empty: report.warnings.append("Primary timeframe data unavailable") report.signal_quality = "F" return report primary_analysis = self.tech_engine.analyze( primary_df, symbol, self.config.primary_timeframe.value ) report.primary_analysis = primary_analysis report.primary_signal = primary_analysis.composite_signal report.primary_score = primary_analysis.composite_score report.primary_confidence = primary_analysis.confidence report.market_regime = primary_analysis.market_regime report.volatility_regime = primary_analysis.volatility_regime report.current_price = float(primary_df["Close"].iloc[-1]) report.timestamp = str(primary_df.index[-1]) report.mtf_signals[self.config.primary_timeframe.value] = primary_analysis.composite_signal report.mtf_scores[self.config.primary_timeframe.value] = primary_analysis.composite_score # ── 2. Confirmation timeframes ───────────────────────────── for tf in self.config.confirmation_timeframes: cf_df = dfs.get(tf) if cf_df is None or cf_df.empty: continue try: cf_analysis = self.tech_engine.analyze(cf_df, symbol, tf.value) report.confirmation_analyses.append(cf_analysis) report.mtf_signals[tf.value] = cf_analysis.composite_signal report.mtf_scores[tf.value] = cf_analysis.composite_score except Exception as e: logger.warning(f"Confirmation TF {tf.value} failed for {symbol}: {e}") # ── 3. MTF agreement ─────────────────────────────────────── report.mtf_agreement = self._check_mtf_agreement(report) # ── 4. Fundamental context (optional) ────────────────────── if use_news: news = self._get_news_engine() if context is None: context = news.get_fundamental_context() event_risk, event_desc = news.get_event_risk_level(symbol, context) report.event_risk = event_risk report.event_description = event_desc sentiment, sent_desc = news.get_pair_sentiment(symbol, context) report.news_sentiment = sentiment report.news_description = sent_desc report.news_summary = context.llm_summary else: report.event_risk = "clear" report.event_description = "" report.news_sentiment = 0.0 report.news_description = "" report.news_summary = "" # ── 5. Spread estimate from primary data (avoids extra API call) ─ try: report.spread_estimate = float( (primary_df["High"] - primary_df["Low"]).median() ) except Exception: report.spread_estimate = 0.0 # ── 6. Final signal ──────────────────────────────────────── self._compute_final_signal(report) # ── 6b. Session filter (works for both live and backtest) ─ if self.config.backtest.session_filter: try: bar_ts = pd.Timestamp(report.timestamp) bar_hour = bar_ts.hour bar_wd = bar_ts.weekday() _is_xau_pair = report.display_name == "XAU/USD" _blocked_hours = (self.config.xau_strategy.blocked_hours_utc if _is_xau_pair else self.config.backtest.blocked_hours_utc) if bar_hour in _blocked_hours: report.final_signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL report.signal_quality = "F" report.warnings.append(f"SESSION FILTER: {bar_hour:02}:00 UTC blocked") _allowed_wd = (self.config.xau_strategy.allowed_weekdays if _is_xau_pair else self.config.backtest.allowed_weekdays) if _allowed_wd and bar_wd not in _allowed_wd: day_names = {0: "Mon", 1: "Tue", 2: "Wed", 3: "Thu", 4: "Fri", 5: "Sat", 6: "Sun"} report.final_signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL report.signal_quality = "F" report.warnings.append( f"DAY FILTER: {day_names.get(bar_wd, '?')} not in allowed days" ) except Exception: # Fail-open by design, but never silently (see live wrapper). logger.exception( f"{symbol}: session/day filter errored — filter SKIPPED" ) # ── 6c. Transitioning regime quality boost ────────────────── if report.market_regime == "transitioning" and report.signal_quality in ("B", "C", "D"): abs_score = abs(report.final_score) if abs_score >= 30 and report.final_confidence >= 50 and report.mtf_agreement: report.signal_quality = "A" report.action_recommendation = f"{report.final_signal.name.replace('_', ' ')} — Trend emerging, early entry" elif abs_score >= 25 and report.final_confidence >= 45: report.signal_quality = "B" report.action_recommendation = f"{report.final_signal.name.replace('_', ' ')} — Trend forming, watch closely" # ── 6d. Exhausted trend quality cap ─────────────────────── if (report.market_regime.startswith("trending") and report.exhaustion_count >= 2 and report.signal_quality in ("C", "D")): report.warnings.append( "EXHAUSTED TREND FILTER: C-grade blocked in exhausted trend" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None # ── 6e. SELL quality gate ───────────────────────────────── xau_is_sell_dir = ( report.final_signal in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL) or (report.final_signal == SignalStrength.NEUTRAL and report.final_score < 0) ) # Actionable grades only: without this guard the gate would "upgrade" # a session-blocked F report to D, which re-opens the M5 pullback # path (its entry check is quality != "F"). if (self.config.xau_strategy.enabled and report.display_name == "XAU/USD" and xau_is_sell_dir and report.signal_quality in ("A+", "A", "B", "C") and report.signal_quality not in self.config.xau_strategy.sell_min_quality): report.warnings.append( f"SELL FILTER: quality {report.signal_quality} below minimum for SELL" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None # ── 6f. MTF opposition gate ─────────────────────────────── # Never trade against a multi-timeframe consensus: if the # threshold number of TFs point opposite to the trade direction, # block the setup (counter-trend entries in gold bleed). if report.signal_quality in ("A+", "A", "B", "C") and report.mtf_signals: sigs = list(report.mtf_signals.values()) bull_n = sum(1 for s in sigs if s in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY)) bear_n = sum(1 for s in sigs if s in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL)) thr = self.config.signals.mtf_agreement_threshold opposed = (bear_n >= thr and report.final_score > 0) or \ (bull_n >= thr and report.final_score < 0) if opposed: report.warnings.append( "MTF OPPOSITION: majority of timeframes point against signal — no trade" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None # ── 6g. SELL volatility gate ────────────────────────────── # Shorts in quiet markets fade against gold's macro uptrend; # only take sells when volatility regime confirms real selling. if (self.config.xau_strategy.enabled and report.display_name == "XAU/USD" and xau_is_sell_dir and report.signal_quality in ("A+", "A", "B", "C") and report.volatility_regime and report.volatility_regime not in self.config.xau_strategy.sell_vol_regimes): report.warnings.append( f"SELL FILTER: volatility '{report.volatility_regime}' too quiet for shorts" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None # ── 6g2. XAU regime gates (opt-in via per-TF factory overrides) ── if (self.config.xau_strategy.enabled and report.display_name == "XAU/USD" and report.signal_quality in ("A+", "A", "B", "C")): if report.market_regime in self.config.xau_strategy.blocked_regimes: report.warnings.append( f"REGIME FILTER: '{report.market_regime}' blocked for XAU" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None elif (xau_is_sell_dir and report.market_regime in self.config.xau_strategy.sell_blocked_regimes): report.warnings.append( f"SELL FILTER: regime '{report.market_regime}' blocked for shorts" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None elif xau_is_sell_dir and self.config.xau_strategy.sell_blocked_hours_utc: # ── 6g3. XAU SELL hour gate (opt-in via per-TF factories) ── # Evaluated on the bar's CLOSE time (= entry time under # next-open fills), the same clock the session filter and # backtest replay use — NOT the bar label hour. try: close_h = ( pd.Timestamp(report.timestamp) + pd.Timedelta( seconds=BaseDataProvider.CANDLE_SECONDS[ self.config.primary_timeframe ] ) ).hour except Exception: close_h = None logger.warning( f"{report.symbol}: bar-close hour underivable — " f"SELL hour gate FAILS CLOSED (short blocked)" ) # Fail CLOSED: an underivable close hour blocks the short # (`None in [15, 17]` used to pass silently). Never fires # on parseable timestamps, so pinned books are unchanged. if (close_h is None or close_h in self.config.xau_strategy.sell_blocked_hours_utc): hour_txt = "??" if close_h is None else f"{close_h:02}" report.warnings.append( f"SELL FILTER: {hour_txt}:00 UTC entry blocked for shorts" ) report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None # ── 6h. Big-candle entry gate (opt-in via per-TF factories) ── # An abnormally large candle in the recent window = institutional # burst; price may reverse violently, so NO entry of any kind may # fire. Detection runs for ANY grade: the warning is the # suppression channel for the XAU_PB path (which accepts D) and # the XAU_CP path (which accepts even F). The D-downgrade itself # touches actionable grades only — F stays F (same convention as # 6e). if (self.config.xau_strategy.enabled and report.display_name == "XAU/USD" and self.config.xau_strategy.big_candle_atr_multiple > 0): big_candle = self._detect_big_candle(primary_df) if big_candle is not None: bc_ts, bc_ratio = big_candle report.warnings.append( f"BIG CANDLE FILTER: {bc_ratio:.1f}x ATR bar at {bc_ts} " f"within " f"{self.config.xau_strategy.big_candle_lookback_hours:g}h " f"— no entries" ) if report.signal_quality in ("A+", "A", "B", "C"): report.signal_quality = "D" report.trade_setup = None # ── 6i. M5 noise gate (gold-tuned thresholds — XAU only) ── if (self.config.primary_timeframe == Timeframe.M5 and report.display_name == "XAU/USD"): self._apply_m5_filters(report) # ── 7. Trade setup for actionable signals ────────────────── # ATR generator is XAU-only: it hardcodes gold pip value and # 2-decimal price rounding. if (report.trade_setup is None and report.signal_quality in ("A+", "A") and report.display_name == "XAU/USD"): atr = (report.primary_analysis.key_levels.get("atr", 0) if report.primary_analysis else 0) if atr > 0: report.trade_setup = self._generate_xau_atr_trade_setup(report, atr) if report.trade_setup is None and report.signal_quality in ("A+", "A", "B", "C"): report.trade_setup = self._generate_trade_setup(report, pip_value) # ── 8. Reasons ───────────────────────────────────────────── self._collect_reasons(report) # ── 9. M5 pullback entry (XAU_PB) ────────────────────────── # Second archetype: when no breakout setup fired, look for a # trend-continuation pullback (retrace to EMA21/KC-mid). Runs # after reasons so its marker lands at reasons[0] for tagging. if (self.config.primary_timeframe == Timeframe.M5 and report.display_name == "XAU/USD" and self.config.xau_strategy.m5_pullback_enabled and report.trade_setup is None and report.signal_quality != "F" and not any(w.startswith("BIG CANDLE FILTER") for w in report.warnings)): self._try_m5_pullback(report, primary_df, pip_value) # ── 10. Chart-pattern entry (XAU_CP) ──────────────────────── # Third archetype: completion of a classical chart pattern # (double top/bottom, H&S, flag — see chart_patterns.py). Only # fills empty slots (core + pullback setups take precedence). # Unlike XAU_PB this must NOT require quality != "F": a weak # composite (grade F on |score| < 15) is the normal state at a # reversal-pattern completion. Session/day blocks still bind — # they are detected by their warnings (and the live wrapper + # backtest replay apply the bar-close session predicate again # on top, so a pattern setup can never trade a blocked hour). if (report.display_name == "XAU/USD" and self.config.xau_strategy.cp_enabled and report.trade_setup is None and not any(w.startswith(("SESSION FILTER", "DAY FILTER", "WEEKEND FILTER", "BIG CANDLE FILTER")) for w in report.warnings)): self._try_chart_pattern(report, primary_df, pip_value) return report # ── Internals ────────────────────────────────────────────────── # Only A+/A reach the XAU ATR generator (gate at the call site). _TP_QUALITY_SCALE = {"A+": 2.0, "A": 1.5} def _generate_xau_atr_trade_setup( self, report: SignalReport, atr: float ) -> Optional[TradeSetup]: """XAU ATR-based trade setup with quality-tiered TP scaling.""" cfg = self.config.xau_strategy price = report.current_price pip_value = 0.10 if report.final_signal in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY): is_buy = True elif report.final_signal in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL): is_buy = False else: is_buy = report.final_score >= 0 quality_scale = self._TP_QUALITY_SCALE[report.signal_quality] if report.signal_quality == "A" and report.exhaustion_count >= 2: quality_scale = 1.0 tp_mult = cfg.tp_atr_multiplier * quality_scale if is_buy: sl = price - cfg.sl_atr_multiplier * atr tp1 = price + tp_mult * atr tp2 = price + tp_mult * 1.5 * atr direction = "BUY" else: sl = price + cfg.sl_atr_multiplier * atr tp1 = price - tp_mult * atr tp2 = price - tp_mult * 1.5 * atr direction = "SELL" tf = self.config.signals.tp_tightening_factor tp1 = price + (tp1 - price) * tf tp2 = price + (tp2 - price) * tf sl_distance = abs(price - sl) tp_distance = abs(tp1 - price) rr = tp_distance / sl_distance if sl_distance > 0 else 0 min_rr = self.config.signals.min_rr_ratio if rr < min_rr - 1e-9: return None # Spread gate (same rule as _generate_trade_setup). min_tp = self.config.signals.round_trip_cost * self.config.signals.min_tp_cost_multiple if tp_distance < min_tp: report.warnings.append( f"SPREAD GATE: target ${tp_distance:.2f} < ${min_tp:.2f} minimum — " f"costs would eat the edge" ) return None return TradeSetup( pair=report.symbol, display_name=report.display_name, direction=direction, entry_price=price, stop_loss=round(sl, 2), take_profit_1=round(tp1, 2), take_profit_2=round(tp2, 2), risk_reward=round(rr, 2), risk_pips=round(sl_distance / pip_value, 1), reward_pips=round(tp_distance / pip_value, 1), pip_value=pip_value, strategy="XAU_ATR", round_trip_cost=self.config.signals.round_trip_cost, trail_arm_r=self.config.signals.trail_arm_r, trail_dist_r=self.config.signals.trail_dist_r, ) def _check_mtf_agreement(self, report: SignalReport) -> bool: signals = list(report.mtf_signals.values()) if len(signals) < 2: return False bullish = sum(1 for s in signals if s in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY)) bearish = sum(1 for s in signals if s in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL)) threshold = self.config.signals.mtf_agreement_threshold # Agreement must point the same way as the primary timeframe — # two bullish confirmation TFs must not "confirm" a bearish primary. if report.primary_score > 0: return bullish >= threshold if report.primary_score < 0: return bearish >= threshold return bullish >= threshold or bearish >= threshold def _compute_final_signal(self, report: SignalReport): score = report.primary_score confidence = report.primary_confidence # ── Bonuses (additive, applied first) ───────────────────── if report.mtf_agreement: confidence += 10 all_scores = list(report.mtf_scores.values()) if all_scores: mtf_avg = sum(all_scores) / len(all_scores) score = score * 0.6 + mtf_avg * 0.4 if self.config.news.sentiment_affects_signals and abs(report.news_sentiment) > 0.2: if (report.news_sentiment > 0 and score > 0) or \ (report.news_sentiment < 0 and score < 0): confidence += 5 primary = report.primary_analysis if primary and report.market_regime.startswith("trending"): rsi_ind = primary.indicators.get("rsi") bb_ind = primary.indicators.get("bollinger") # Pullback bonuses require a KNOWN trend direction — the mixed # "trending" regime (EMAs unaligned) gets no directional bonus. if rsi_ind: rsi_val = rsi_ind.value if report.market_regime == "trending_up" and score > 0 and 38 <= rsi_val <= 55: confidence += 5 elif report.market_regime == "trending_down" and score < 0 and 45 <= rsi_val <= 62: confidence += 5 if bb_ind: bb_pos = bb_ind.value if report.market_regime == "trending_up" and score > 0 and bb_pos < 0.4: confidence += 5 elif report.market_regime == "trending_down" and score < 0 and bb_pos > 0.6: confidence += 5 # ── Event risk (hard cap, separate from penalty system) ─── # Warning always shown; the confidence cap is config-gated # (news.event_risk_caps_signals) — see NewsConfig for the audit # showing the cap costs R on XAU. if report.event_risk == "danger": report.warnings.append(f"EVENT RISK: {report.event_description}") if self.config.news.event_risk_caps_signals: confidence = min(confidence, 30) report.action_recommendation = f"WAIT — {report.event_description}" # ── Penalties (diminishing cap system) ──────────────────── # Collect all applicable penalties, then apply with exponential # decay so stacking never guts a signal beyond 30%. penalties = [] if not report.mtf_agreement: penalties.append(("mtf_disagreement", 15)) if len(report.mtf_scores) >= 2: scores_list = list(report.mtf_scores.values()) if any(s > 10 for s in scores_list) and any(s < -10 for s in scores_list): report.warnings.append("Timeframes CONFLICT — mixed signals across timeframes") if abs(report.news_sentiment) > 0.2: if (report.news_sentiment > 0 and score < -10) or \ (report.news_sentiment < 0 and score > 10): report.warnings.append("News sentiment CONFLICTS with technical signal") if self.config.news.sentiment_affects_signals: penalties.append(("news_conflict", 10)) if report.event_risk == "caution": report.warnings.append(f"Upcoming event: {report.event_description}") if self.config.news.event_risk_caps_signals: penalties.append(("event_caution", 15)) is_counter_trend = ( (report.market_regime == "trending_up" and score < 0) or (report.market_regime == "trending_down" and score > 0) ) if is_counter_trend: report.warnings.append("Counter-trend signal — reduced confidence") penalties.append(("counter_trend", 15)) if report.volatility_regime == "extreme": report.warnings.append("EXTREME volatility — wider stops needed") penalties.append(("extreme_vol", 10)) elif report.volatility_regime == "low": report.warnings.append("Low volatility — potential for breakout") if primary is not None: ema200 = primary.key_levels.get("ema_trend") if ema200 and ema200 > 0 and report.current_price > 0: ema_dist_pct = abs(report.current_price - ema200) / ema200 * 100.0 # FB2_EMA_LO: research override for the EMA200-proximity # penalty band; the tuned default is 0.5. An unparseable # value must degrade to the default, never crash the scan # (2026-08-04 audit; hardened per owner delegation). try: _lo = float(os.environ.get("FB2_EMA_LO", "0.5")) except (TypeError, ValueError): logger.warning( "FB2_EMA_LO=%r is not a number — using tuned " "default 0.5", os.environ.get("FB2_EMA_LO")) _lo = 0.5 if ema_dist_pct < _lo: report.warnings.append(f"NEAR EMA200 ({ema_dist_pct:.2f}%) — chop risk") penalties.append(("ema200_near", 5)) elif ema_dist_pct > 2.5: report.warnings.append(f"FAR FROM EMA200 ({ema_dist_pct:.2f}%) — over-extended") penalties.append(("ema200_far", 5)) atr = primary.key_levels.get("atr", 0) if atr > 0 and score != 0: # Distance is measured from the FARTHEST of the 3 tracked # swings (sorted()[0] = deepest low / highest high), so the # penalty fires earlier than a nearest-swing rule would. # Calibrated as-is in every validated book — changing the # anchor is a signal-logic change requiring re-validation. if score > 0: swing_lows = sorted( v for k, v in primary.key_levels.items() if k.startswith("swing_low_") ) if swing_lows and report.current_price - swing_lows[0] > 3.5 * atr: report.warnings.append("TREND EXHAUSTION — price extended >3.5 ATR past swing low") penalties.append(("exhaustion", 8)) else: swing_highs = sorted( (v for k, v in primary.key_levels.items() if k.startswith("swing_high_")), reverse=True, ) if swing_highs and swing_highs[0] - report.current_price > 3.5 * atr: report.warnings.append("TREND EXHAUSTION — price extended >3.5 ATR past swing high") penalties.append(("exhaustion", 8)) ema_medium = primary.key_levels.get("ema_medium") if atr > 0 and ema_medium and report.market_regime.startswith("trending"): pullback_dist = abs(report.current_price - ema_medium) / atr if pullback_dist > 2.5: report.warnings.append(f"NO PULLBACK — price {pullback_dist:.1f} ATR from EMA21") penalties.append(("no_pullback", 8)) elif pullback_dist > 2.0: report.warnings.append(f"Weak pullback — price {pullback_dist:.1f} ATR from EMA21") penalties.append(("weak_pullback", 5)) if report.market_regime.startswith("trending"): rsi_ind = primary.indicators.get("rsi") bb_ind = primary.indicators.get("bollinger") # Extension penalties apply in ANY strong-ADX regime; the # mixed "trending" regime penalizes BOTH directions (it # previously penalized only BUYs — the SELL side of the # same bullish-bias bug fixed in the RSI reinterpretation). if rsi_ind: rsi_val = rsi_ind.value if report.market_regime in ("trending_up", "trending") and score > 0 and rsi_val > 65: report.warnings.append(f"Extended — RSI {rsi_val:.0f} in uptrend") penalties.append(("rsi_extended", 5)) elif report.market_regime in ("trending_down", "trending") and score < 0 and rsi_val < 35: report.warnings.append(f"Extended — RSI {rsi_val:.0f} in downtrend") penalties.append(("rsi_extended", 5)) if bb_ind: bb_pos = bb_ind.value if report.market_regime in ("trending_up", "trending") and score > 0 and bb_pos > 0.85: penalties.append(("bb_overextended", 8)) elif report.market_regime in ("trending_down", "trending") and score < 0 and bb_pos < 0.15: penalties.append(("bb_overextended", 8)) # Hard block: static exhaustion + fading momentum → kill the trade # Static signals alone are normal in gold trends. Only block when # price is extended AND momentum indicators confirm deceleration. _EXHAUSTION_TAGS = {"exhaustion", "no_pullback", "rsi_extended", "bb_overextended"} exhaustion_count = sum(1 for name, _ in penalties if name in _EXHAUSTION_TAGS) report.exhaustion_count = exhaustion_count momentum_fading = False if primary is not None and exhaustion_count >= 2: roc_ind = primary.indicators.get("roc") macd_ind = primary.indicators.get("macd") roc_fading = False macd_fading = False if roc_ind: if score > 0 and roc_ind.value < 0: roc_fading = True elif score < 0 and roc_ind.value > 0: roc_fading = True if macd_ind: if score > 0 and macd_ind.signal in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL): macd_fading = True elif score < 0 and macd_ind.signal in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY): macd_fading = True momentum_fading = roc_fading or macd_fading exhaustion_blocked = exhaustion_count >= 2 and momentum_fading MAX_PENALTY = 30.0 penalties.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) total_penalty = 0.0 decay = 1.0 for _name, amount in penalties: applied = amount * decay if total_penalty + applied > MAX_PENALTY: applied = MAX_PENALTY - total_penalty total_penalty += applied decay *= 0.5 if total_penalty >= MAX_PENALTY: break # Record-keeping for position_sizing / signal-log forensics. # Purely additive — nothing below reads these fields. report.penalty_tags = {name: float(amount) for name, amount in penalties} report.penalty_total = float(total_penalty) report.momentum_fading = bool(momentum_fading) confidence -= total_penalty confidence = max(0.0, min(95.0, confidence)) if exhaustion_blocked: report.warnings.append( f"EXHAUSTION BLOCK — {exhaustion_count} exhaustion signals fired, trade rejected" ) confidence = 0.0 # Final signal if score >= 35 and confidence >= 55: report.final_signal = SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY elif score >= 25 and confidence >= 50: report.final_signal = SignalStrength.BUY elif score <= -35 and confidence >= 55: report.final_signal = SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL elif score <= -25 and confidence >= 50: report.final_signal = SignalStrength.SELL else: report.final_signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL report.final_score = score report.final_confidence = confidence # Quality grade abs_score = abs(score) if abs_score >= 40 and confidence >= 65 and report.mtf_agreement: report.signal_quality = "A+" elif abs_score >= 33 and confidence >= 55 and report.mtf_agreement: report.signal_quality = "A" elif abs_score >= 28 and confidence >= 50: report.signal_quality = "B" elif abs_score >= 25 and confidence >= 45: report.signal_quality = "C" elif abs_score >= 15: report.signal_quality = "D" else: report.signal_quality = "F" if not report.action_recommendation: sig_name = report.final_signal.name.replace("_", " ") if report.signal_quality in ("A+", "A"): report.action_recommendation = f"{sig_name} — High-quality setup, consider entry" elif report.signal_quality == "B": report.action_recommendation = f"{sig_name} — Decent setup, wait for confirmation" elif report.signal_quality in ("C", "D"): report.action_recommendation = "WATCH — Signal present but low confidence" else: report.action_recommendation = "NO TRADE — No clear signal" def _generate_trade_setup(self, report: SignalReport, pip_value: float) -> Optional[TradeSetup]: if not report.primary_analysis: return None price = report.current_price atr = report.primary_analysis.key_levels.get("atr", 0) if atr == 0: return None if pip_value <= 0: return None # Fix 2: Minimum ATR threshold for XAU/USD if report.display_name == "XAU/USD" and atr < self.config.xau_strategy.min_atr_threshold: report.warnings.append( f"LOW ATR FILTER: ATR ${atr:.2f} < ${self.config.xau_strategy.min_atr_threshold:.2f} minimum" ) return None if report.final_signal in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY): is_buy = True elif report.final_signal in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL): is_buy = False else: is_buy = report.final_score >= 0 levels = report.primary_analysis.key_levels min_sl_price = self.config.signals.min_sl_pips * pip_value min_rr = self.config.signals.min_rr_ratio tp_floor = max(min_rr, self.config.signals.tp_floor_rr) tf = self.config.signals.tp_tightening_factor pre_tight_min_rr = tp_floor / tf if tf > 0 else tp_floor tp_mult = 1.5 tp_swing_cap = 2.5 sl_atr_floor = (self.config.xau_strategy.v2_sl_atr_multiplier if report.display_name == "XAU/USD" else 1.5) sl_swing_buffer = 1.0 if is_buy: swing_lows = sorted( [v for k, v in levels.items() if k.startswith("swing_low_") and v < price], reverse=True, ) if swing_lows: sl_price = swing_lows[0] - atr * sl_swing_buffer else: sl_price = price - atr * (1.0 + sl_swing_buffer) min_sl = max(atr * sl_atr_floor, min_sl_price) if price - sl_price < min_sl: sl_price = price - min_sl sl_distance = price - sl_price swing_highs = sorted( v for k, v in levels.items() if k.startswith("swing_high_") and v > price + atr * 0.3 ) if (swing_highs and swing_highs[0] - price <= atr * tp_swing_cap and swing_highs[0] - price >= sl_distance * pre_tight_min_rr): tp1 = swing_highs[0] else: tp1 = price + max(atr * tp_mult, sl_distance * pre_tight_min_rr) if len(swing_highs) >= 2 and swing_highs[1] - price <= atr * 5.0: tp2 = swing_highs[1] else: tp2 = price + max(atr * (tp_mult + 1.5), sl_distance * pre_tight_min_rr * 1.5) direction = "BUY" entry, sl = price, sl_price else: swing_highs = sorted( v for k, v in levels.items() if k.startswith("swing_high_") and v > price ) if swing_highs: sl_price = swing_highs[0] + atr * sl_swing_buffer else: sl_price = price + atr * (1.0 + sl_swing_buffer) min_sl = max(atr * sl_atr_floor, min_sl_price) if sl_price - price < min_sl: sl_price = price + min_sl sl_distance = sl_price - price swing_lows = sorted( [v for k, v in levels.items() if k.startswith("swing_low_") and v < price - atr * 0.3], reverse=True, ) if (swing_lows and price - swing_lows[0] <= atr * tp_swing_cap and price - swing_lows[0] >= sl_distance * pre_tight_min_rr): tp1 = swing_lows[0] else: tp1 = price - max(atr * tp_mult, sl_distance * pre_tight_min_rr) if len(swing_lows) >= 2 and price - swing_lows[1] <= atr * 5.0: tp2 = swing_lows[1] else: tp2 = price - max(atr * (tp_mult + 1.5), sl_distance * pre_tight_min_rr * 1.5) direction = "SELL" entry, sl = price, sl_price tf = self.config.signals.tp_tightening_factor tp1 = entry + (tp1 - entry) * tf tp2 = entry + (tp2 - entry) * tf # TP2 must sit beyond TP1 — swing picks can invert when TP1 falls # back to the ATR target while TP2 takes a nearer second swing. if is_buy: tp2 = max(tp2, tp1 + atr) else: tp2 = min(tp2, tp1 - atr) tp1_distance = abs(tp1 - entry) rr = tp1_distance / sl_distance if sl_distance > 0 else 0 if rr < min_rr - 1e-9: return None # Spread gate: a target too close to entry hands most of the win # to transaction costs (validated on M5: sub-$10 targets lose). min_tp = self.config.signals.round_trip_cost * self.config.signals.min_tp_cost_multiple if tp1_distance < min_tp: report.warnings.append( f"SPREAD GATE: target ${tp1_distance:.2f} < ${min_tp:.2f} minimum — " f"costs would eat the edge" ) return None risk_pips = sl_distance / pip_value reward_pips = tp1_distance / pip_value return TradeSetup( pair=report.symbol, display_name=report.display_name, direction=direction, entry_price=entry, stop_loss=sl, take_profit_1=tp1, take_profit_2=tp2, risk_reward=round(rr, 2), risk_pips=risk_pips, reward_pips=reward_pips, pip_value=pip_value, round_trip_cost=self.config.signals.round_trip_cost, trail_arm_r=self.config.signals.trail_arm_r, trail_dist_r=self.config.signals.trail_dist_r, ) def _collect_reasons(self, report: SignalReport): if not report.primary_analysis: return for name, ind in report.primary_analysis.indicators.items(): if name.startswith("_") or ind.weight == 0: continue if ind.signal in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY): prefix = "STRONG: " if ind.signal == SignalStrength.STRONG_BUY else "" report.bullish_reasons.append(f"{prefix}{ind.name}: {ind.description}") elif ind.signal in (SignalStrength.SELL, SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL): prefix = "STRONG: " if ind.signal == SignalStrength.STRONG_SELL else "" report.bearish_reasons.append(f"{prefix}{ind.name}: {ind.description}") if report.news_sentiment > 0.1: report.bullish_reasons.append(f"News: {report.news_description}") elif report.news_sentiment < -0.1: report.bearish_reasons.append(f"News: {report.news_description}")