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ForexBot2/scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py
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Harwinder Sekhon 2cc5915b00 Daily-trend veto on M15 + lot-size / already-open lines (campaign 2026-09-30), and the 2026-10-01 whole-codebase bug review
Two bodies of work that touch the same files, so one commit.

Direction and setup-size campaign (2026-09-30 → 10-01, owner's RISK-FIRST rule,
written before the runs):
- SIGNAL: M15 daily-trend veto (factory override 7, xau_strategy.daily_trend_veto
  "both"). A finished setup against a clear daily trend (closed D1 bars, Sunday
  stubs dropped; close vs its 50-bar EMA AND vs the close 60 kept days earlier)
  is removed as the last step of the core. One definition
  (signal_aggregator.daily_trend_series) for live, the bar replay and the twin's
  host side; D1 is a required frame of the M15 scan; mirrored in
  cuda_signal_kernels.py K2. W3 824 / +205.12R / PF 1.73 / max DD 12.4R vs
  1105 / +195.79R / 1.49 / 20.9R; 2019 → 2026 1473 / +223.33R / 1.42 / 41.5R vs
  2091 / +192.53R / 1.24 / 64.8R; unseen holdout −4.62R vs −6.63R.
- FAILED, not shipped: the veto on M5 (W3 drawdown 10.1R → 15.2R) and on H1
  (−9.7R), buy-only and sell-only on M15, the wide-stop cap
  (xau_strategy.wide_stop_cap_atr stays 0.0, a research knob).
- New M15 pins: W2 dfc647ee…, OOS e87b6de1…, W3 ad3b0dbd…. M5 / H1 / H4 pins
  unchanged. --set xau_strategy.daily_trend_veto=off reproduces the previous M15
  pins byte for byte. Twin and reference script MD5-equal on every window;
  recorder and feature-export parity re-proved; base-rate table rebuilt.
- DISPLAY (books byte-identical): exposure.py — the lot size for
  trade_size.risk_per_trade (new config.json block, off by default, private to
  the owner) and the count of alerted same-direction plans still open
  (signals.alerted_at, read-only open_alerted_setups); the daily trend in words
  on Telegram, the CLI and the dashboard; signals.daily_trend logged.
- providers/oanda: a date window with no bars is an empty page, not an error
  (a D1 pad starting on a Saturday could not be fetched).
- Reports only, nothing shipped: seven context screens (no state nominated) and
  eight outside data sources (none adds a forecast to gold's own daily trend).
- Independent verification (report section 5.13): every figure reproduced on
  both scripts, scoring identical to the previous commit on all four
  timeframes, no look-ahead. Caveats recorded there: this is a risk filter, not
  a more accurate direction call; nine tenths of the 2019 → 2026 gain is 2022;
  the neighbour clause is thin (a simple 100-day average misses the R line by
  1.2R); "never adds a trade" is an observation, not a guarantee.

Bug review of the whole codebase (2026-10-01). Signal path clean. 17 defects
elsewhere, plus 4 found by an independent review of the fixes; all fixed, each
with a test; no trade book changed:
- telegram_bot: one _deliver_alert for the candle scan and the level break. The
  row is stamped alerted_at BEFORE the send, on a one-worker alert-db pool, and
  un-stamped when no chat received it or the task is cancelled mid-stamp, so
  two alerts at one candle close count each other and no SQLite write runs on
  the event loop. The 5-bar cooldown counts bars of the scan's own frame
  (== gpu_backtest._apply_cooldown; clock time released the 22:00 UTC bar after
  the settlement pause) and is restored from signals.db at start-up. The
  lot-size line goes to the owner's own chat only (a group the owner ran
  /autoscan in used to receive it). /status gains a news-model line and escapes
  failure details.
- signal_log: mark_alerted returns the stamp it wrote; unmark_alerted;
  last_alerted_bars (read-only).
- advisory_outcome: candle continuity is judged bar by bar inside the walk; a
  hole after a trade's exit no longer voids it. The stored-candle replay
  resolves 108 of 111 logged setups instead of 99, all equal to the live
  resolver's R.
- providers/oanda: an empty date window is accepted only when it is 5 days or
  shorter and no malformed candle was skipped; a longer one is retried, then
  refused, instead of being cached as history with a hole.
- news_engine: blank RSS titles skipped; one unreadable headline no longer
  costs the local model its whole batch (checked on the real bundle); model
  health recorded; no DeepSeek audit call in a process that does not archive;
  event-direction cache keyed per release; peek_week_events never fetches.
- llm_client: chat_json never raises and never logs the API key (requests
  quotes the Authorization value in InvalidHeader; error bodies are redacted).
- signal_aggregator: the scan's news block is guarded; the replay path
  (use_news=False) assigns exactly the values it did before.
- agent_panel: PANEL_PROMPT_VERSION v2.2 — same prompt text, corrected input
  (event timing over the cached calendar week, headlines newest first).
  scripts/panel_replay.py replays the logged payload per persona;
  scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py counts with an ISO cutoff.
- test_all.py: no ALTER TABLE … DROP COLUMN (the live box has SQLite 3.34);
  tests that write Parquet print a notice and return without pyarrow.

Verification after the last code change: suite 632 passed, 0 failed (also with
both Parquet engines blocked and FB2_BACKEND=cpu, the live box's view); the
five reference MD5s reproduce on both backtesters, 0 cache fallbacks; Module 37
green; static Python 3.9 / SQLite 3.34 check clean on every touched file.

Evidence: backtest/research/daily_trend_campaign_2026-09-30.md,
context_screens_2026-10.md, new_inputs_2026-10.md; CLAUDE.md sections 2, 4, 6,
8, 9, 10 and 11; pair_signals/xauusd.py docstring (M15 override 7).
2026-10-01 10:28:28 -04:00

127 lines
5.1 KiB
Python
Executable File

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
label_scan_outcomes.py — batch driver for the scan_outcomes table.
Labels model-free forward returns (1/4/24 h, $ and ATR-normalized, plus
MFE/MAE, a 3xATR burst flag and a completeness flag) for every logged scan
whose 24 h window has closed, from the closed-candle streams already
stored in the DB. No provider, no network.
The live loggers do the same work opportunistically at the end of every
scan (time-boxed to ~2 s); this script is the catch-up pass for a backlog
— a freshly imported database, or rows whose bars only arrived later.
Idempotent: a row is rewritten only when its numbers change, so a settled
database costs one read pass. Safe beside the live writers (short per-row
transactions with a busy timeout). Read-only preview with --dry-run.
python scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py --dry-run
python scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py
python scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py --db logs/signals.db --budget 5000
"""
import argparse
import os
import sqlite3
import sys
from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
from typing import Optional
sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
import app_config # noqa: E402
from signal_log import SCAN_LABEL_MIN_AGE_H, SignalLogger # noqa: E402
CHUNK = 2000
def _counts(con: sqlite3.Connection, symbol: str,
labelled: bool = True, now: Optional[datetime] = None) -> dict:
"""Candidate / labelled / complete / pending counts (read-only).
The age filter uses logged_at (always an ISO string) as a proxy for
the bar close — the labeller itself parses the real bar label. The
cutoff is built here in logged_at's own format (UTC, 'T' separator),
the labeller's convention: SQLite's datetime() prints a space, which
sorts before the 'T', so every row logged on the cutoff's calendar
day was left out of the count."""
moment = now or datetime.now(timezone.utc)
if moment.tzinfo is None:
moment = moment.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
cutoff = moment.astimezone(timezone.utc) - timedelta(
hours=SCAN_LABEL_MIN_AGE_H)
scans = ("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM signals s WHERE s.symbol = ?"
" AND s.indicators_json IS NOT NULL AND s.price > 0")
due = scans + " AND s.logged_at < ?"
out = {
"scan rows with indicators": con.execute(scans, (symbol,)).fetchone()[0],
"of those, window elapsed": con.execute(
due, (symbol, cutoff.isoformat())).fetchone()[0],
}
if labelled:
out["labelled"] = con.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM scan_outcomes").fetchone()[0]
out["complete"] = con.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM scan_outcomes WHERE complete = 1"
).fetchone()[0]
out["pending (labelled, incomplete)"] = con.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM scan_outcomes WHERE complete = 0"
).fetchone()[0]
return out
def main(argv=None) -> int:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.splitlines()[1])
ap.add_argument("--db", default=None, help="defaults to the signal_log.path setting in config.json")
ap.add_argument("--dry-run", action="store_true",
help="read-only candidate counts, writes nothing")
ap.add_argument("--budget", type=int, default=100000,
help="maximum rows to write in this run")
ap.add_argument("--symbol", default="XAU/USD")
args = ap.parse_args(argv)
path = args.db or app_config.signal_log_path()
if not os.path.exists(path):
print(f"no database at {path}")
return 1
if args.dry_run:
con = sqlite3.connect(f"file:{os.path.abspath(path)}?mode=ro", uri=True)
try:
have = {r[0] for r in con.execute(
"SELECT name FROM sqlite_master WHERE type='table'")}
if "scan_outcomes" not in have:
print("scan_outcomes table not present yet (created on the"
" first non-dry run / next logged scan)")
for key, value in _counts(con, args.symbol,
labelled="scan_outcomes" in have).items():
print(f" {key}: {value}")
finally:
con.close()
return 0
lg = SignalLogger(path)
try:
print("before:", _counts(lg._conn, args.symbol))
written = 0
previous_complete = -1
while written < args.budget:
n = lg.label_scan_outcomes(
budget=min(CHUNK, args.budget - written), time_budget=120.0)
written += n
complete = lg._conn.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM scan_outcomes WHERE complete = 1"
).fetchone()[0]
# Stop on a pass that wrote nothing, or one that could not
# complete a single further row (only re-labelling stragglers).
if n == 0 or complete == previous_complete:
break
previous_complete = complete
print(f"labelled (rows written): {written}")
print("after:", _counts(lg._conn, args.symbol))
finally:
lg.close()
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
sys.exit(main())