Harwinder Sekhon
858c12280a
Validation (llm_news_eval.py harness + 78-headline golden CSV + verdict doc): headline scoring 78/78 vs keyword baseline 24/78 — validated; event gold-direction calls misread close K/M numeric comparisons ~11% of the time (both claims cases in sample, JOLTS 8.79M vs 8.84M). Fix: event payload now carries code-computed "vs_forecast" (from EconomicEvent.surprise) and the prompt gains an explicit inverted- metrics rule + worked claims example — iteration 1 (field alone) fixed the arithmetic but exposed a masked inversion error. 18/18 on live re-verification (4 misreads fixed, 11 regression cases clean, 3 fresh both-side probes). /status: new "News & AI" section — per-source health for the calendar chain (which of FF/MyFXBook served), each RSS feed, and DeepSeek (daily count, last error kind), written passively by the existing fetch paths under _cache_lock. Failures WARN once on transition (repeats DEBUG, recovery INFO) so the rotating log carries outage stories without 10-min spam. test_all.py: +5 Module 19 tests (351 total); also carries the Module 22 fixed-RR-TP tests from the prior research session (shared file). Replay artifacts dir gitignored like commit_ladder. Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017mbXs9HRawZhD1uZ3ze7zQ
7.8 KiB
7.8 KiB
| 1 | headline | category | expected_xau_sign | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky | hawkish_fed | -1 | higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish |
| 3 | Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year | hawkish_fed | -1 | more hikes = stronger dollar/yields |
| 4 | Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening | hawkish_fed | -1 | tightening expectations weigh on gold |
| 5 | Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish guidance |
| 6 | FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead | hawkish_fed | -1 | outsized hike plus hawkish guidance |
| 7 | Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes | hawkish_fed | -1 | cut hopes dashed, yields up |
| 8 | Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish repricing |
| 9 | Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year | hawkish_fed | -1 | easing priced out |
| 10 | Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come | dovish_fed | 1 | easing cycle is gold-bullish |
| 11 | Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance |
| 12 | FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing | dovish_fed | 1 | dovish minutes |
| 13 | Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance |
| 14 | Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot | dovish_fed | 1 | pivot odds up |
| 15 | Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle | dovish_fed | 1 | easing priced in |
| 16 | Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters | dovish_fed | 1 | global easing backdrop |
| 17 | Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy | dovish_fed | 1 | QE is gold-bullish |
| 18 | Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data | strong_usd | -1 | strong dollar pressures gold |
| 19 | US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations | strong_usd | -1 | strong economy, hawkish implication |
| 20 | Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board | strong_usd | -1 | strong jobs lift dollar and yields |
| 21 | US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength | strong_usd | -1 | strong data |
| 22 | Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia | strong_usd | -1 | dollar strength |
| 23 | ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand | strong_usd | -1 | strong data |
| 24 | Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US | strong_usd | -1 | strong data |
| 25 | Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data | weak_usd | 1 | weak dollar lifts gold |
| 26 | US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides | weak_usd | 1 | weak jobs, dovish implication |
| 27 | Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract | weak_usd | 1 | weak data |
| 28 | US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears | weak_usd | 1 | slowdown is dovish |
| 29 | Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record | weak_usd | 1 | dollar weakness |
| 30 | Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy | weak_usd | 1 | cooling economy |
| 31 | US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low | weak_usd | 1 | weak data |
| 32 | Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off | real_yields | -1 | rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost |
| 33 | 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut | real_yields | -1 | yield spike |
| 34 | Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets | real_yields | -1 | explicit opportunity-cost story |
| 35 | Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds | real_yields | 1 | falling yields support gold |
| 36 | Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates | real_yields | 1 | negative real yields are gold's best backdrop |
| 37 | Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year | real_yields | 1 | falling yields |
| 38 | Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety | safe_haven | 1 | safe-haven bid |
| 39 | Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread | safe_haven | 1 | crisis flight to safety |
| 40 | Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets | safe_haven | 1 | explicit haven flow |
| 41 | Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default | safe_haven | 1 | default shock |
| 42 | Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets | safe_haven | 1 | geopolitical stress |
| 43 | Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic | safe_haven | 1 | risk-off |
| 44 | Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears | safe_haven | 1 | contagion, haven bid |
| 45 | Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens | safe_haven | 1 | extreme geopolitical stress |
| 46 | Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades | risk_on | -1 | haven unwind |
| 47 | Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed | risk_on | -1 | risk-on drains haven demand |
| 48 | Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside | risk_on | -1 | risk-on |
| 49 | Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions | risk_on | -1 | risk-on |
| 50 | Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion | gold_direct | 1 | direct demand |
| 51 | Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years | gold_direct | 1 | investment inflows |
| 52 | China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month | gold_direct | 1 | official-sector demand |
| 53 | Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens | gold_direct | 1 | supply deficit |
| 54 | Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run | gold_direct | -1 | profit-taking pressure |
| 55 | Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate | gold_direct | -1 | outflows |
| 56 | Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls | gold_direct | -1 | physical demand soft |
| 57 | Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens | gold_direct | -1 | positioning unwind |
| 58 | Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon | negation_traps | 1 | dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish |
| 59 | Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish |
| 60 | Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates | negation_traps | -1 | fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out |
| 61 | Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed | negation_traps | 1 | disinflation opens door to cuts |
| 62 | Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish pushback phrased around negations |
| 63 | Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold with tightening bias |
| 64 | No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say | negation_traps | -1 | explicitly negated haven demand |
| 65 | Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers | negation_traps | -1 | less-bad data is dollar-positive |
| 66 | US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish |
| 67 | US factory activity slumps to three-year low | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish |
| 68 | Consumer spending falls for third straight month | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish |
| 69 | Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish |
| 70 | Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish |
| 71 | US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish |
| 72 | Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns | distractors | 0 | irrelevant |
| 73 | New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant |
| 74 | Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup | distractors | 0 | irrelevant |
| 75 | Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast | distractors | 0 | irrelevant |
| 76 | Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant |
| 77 | Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe | distractors | 0 | irrelevant |
| 78 | Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch | distractors | 0 | irrelevant |
| 79 | Local elections see record turnout in several US states | distractors | 0 | irrelevant |