Harwinder Sekhon
1f4741b557
Agent panel v2: personas return p_win anchored to the book base rates with a code-computed decision context; verdict = equal-weight mean (verdict_source "mean"); only the macro persona runs live (agent_panel.personas ["macro"]); prompt version and exact payloads logged; offline replay harness scripts/panel_replay.py; base-rate table agent_panel_base_rates.json (scripts/build_panel_base_rates.py). Backtester `strategy` column now carries the generator's own stamp (label-only; five reference books re-pinned, all 62 other columns identical). News corpus (after evaluating the owner's ML-NEWS scikit model against DeepSeek: golden set 39/78 vs 78/78, out-of-sample agreement 64% against a 90% self-agreement ceiling; verdict: fallback only, not a replacement): - NewsSentiment.xau_score + archive column xau_score keep DeepSeek's gold score for every headline (930 of the first 1,546 DeepSeek rows had none); an existing newsdata.db gains the column in place on first open - headlines naming no tracked currency are scored and archived (currencies_json []) but never returned to the platform - _apply_llm_sentiment sends every new headline in its cycle, 25 per call; a failed call ends the cycle's sending Dashboard publisher never writes a database: main() calls app_config.set_db_writes_for_process(False), honoured by signal_log_enabled() and news_archive_enabled() (owner decision: the bot is the single writer). Test suite: the hermetic app config now points both writers at a suite-private temp dir — the RSS fixture tests were writing fixture headlines into the real logs/newsdata.db — with a Module 32 test pinning it. 529 tests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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145 lines
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<title>ForexBot2 — User Guide</title>
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<h1>ForexBot2 — User Guide</h1>
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<div class="subtitle">How to read, act on, and survive the signals · July 2026</div>
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<h2>1 · What the bot does</h2>
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<p>ForexBot2 analyzes <b>gold (XAU/USD)</b> around the clock on several chart timeframes at once. On every candle close it scores nine technical indicators (trend, momentum, volatility, divergences, candlestick patterns), adapts the weighting to the current market regime (trending / ranging / transitioning), checks that higher timeframes agree, adjusts for news and economic-calendar events, and — only when everything lines up — sends a <b>signal with a complete trade plan</b> to Telegram: direction, entry, stop loss, target, and a trailing-stop management plan.</p>
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<p>Most of the time it sends nothing. Silence means no edge was found; that is the bot working correctly, not a malfunction.</p>
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<h2>2 · Anatomy of a signal</h2>
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<div class="signal-box">🔍 XAU/USD Signal Analysis (M15)
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🕐 2026-07-10 14:00 UTC
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💰 Close: 4,132.50
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📊 Regime: Trending Up | Vol: normal
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━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
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🟢 BUY 🅰 A | Score: +38.2 | 64% conf
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✅ MTF aligned
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📈 MTF: M5 ✅ H1 ✅
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📋 Indicators … (9 rows)
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⚠️ EXTREME volatility — wider stops needed
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━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
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🚀 TRADE SETUP
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📈 Direction: BUY
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▶ Entry: 4,132.50
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🛑 SL: 4,103.10 ($29.40 / 294 pips)
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🎯 TP1: 4,161.90 ($29.40 / 294 pips)
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⚖️ RR: 1:1.0
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🔄 Trail: once price hits 4,150.14 (+0.6R),
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trail SL $22.05 behind best price —
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TP1 is a guide, let it run</div>
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<table>
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<tr><th style="width:28%">Field</th><th>What it means</th></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Signal + grade</b></td><td>Direction (BUY / SELL / STRONG_*) plus a quality grade <b>A+ → F</b>. A trade setup is only attached at grade C or better. Higher grades = more indicator agreement and cleaner regime.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Score / confidence</b></td><td>The regime-weighted composite of all nine indicators. Bigger absolute score = stronger consensus.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>MTF aligned</b></td><td>The two confirmation timeframes agree with the trade direction. Signals without alignment are filtered out on M5.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Warnings ⚠️</b></td><td>Context, not veto. Backtesting shows warned trades perform about the same — strong momentum often triggers warnings.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Violent-move watch 🌪</b></td><td>An occasional extra line saying the next hour looks unusually likely to produce a very large candle — because a high-impact US release is due (or just landed), because the clock is in a historically wild slot, or because price is stretched outside its bands. It is a heads-up about <i>volatility</i>, not a direction call, and it <b>never</b> changes the signal, the grade or the trade setup — the same alert would be sent without it. Do not close or tighten an open trade because of it: every such protective action was tested over three years and lost money. Your stop is the protection.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>AI estimate 🤖</b></td><td>An advisory line such as <i>"AI estimate: about a 45% chance this trade pays off (usual for this kind of setup: 60%). Biggest worry: interest-rate decision in about 2 hours. Still being tested."</i> One AI reviewer (the news reader) receives the recent headlines together with facts computed by code — how far the move has already run, whether a very large candle just printed, how the stop and target compare with the usual, how trades of this exact kind fared in the two-year test, and whether major scheduled news lands before the trade would normally finish — and gives a probability that the trade ends in profit plus one reason for and one against. (Three further reviewers, chart, risk and sceptic, were switched off on 2026-09-17: in two evaluations they added nothing beyond the base rate and mostly voted the same way on every setup.) It is <b>not</b> a recommendation and it <b>never</b> changes the signal, the grade or the setup. Until about 300 of these estimates have been graded against real outcomes, treat it as context, not as a filter: the earlier AGREE/OPPOSE version of this line opposed target-reaching trades as often as it agreed.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Market context 📰</b></td><td>An AI-written note in plain English on what is moving the gold price right now, why it matters, and the next report to watch. It is built only from headlines published in the last 4 hours that lean one way (neutral items are dropped) plus today's high-impact releases. Informational only — it never blocks or grades a signal.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>SL / TP1 / RR</b></td><td>Stop loss sits behind the nearest swing level with an ATR buffer. TP1 is the nearest opposing level. <b>1R</b> = the entry-to-SL distance = the amount you risk.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Trail plan 🔄</b></td><td>The real exit. Once price moves +0.6R in your favor, move the stop to trail 0.75R behind the best price and update it at each candle close. <b>TP1 is advisory — let winners run.</b></td></tr>
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</table>
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<h2>3 · Acting on a signal — step by step</h2>
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<ol>
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<li><b>Size the position first.</b> Decide your risk per trade — <b>0.5–1% of account, never more</b>. Position size = (account × risk%) ÷ stop distance in $. The stop distance varies per signal, so the size changes every trade; the dollar risk must not.</li>
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<li><b>Enter promptly at market.</b> All backtested results assume entry at the open of the candle after the signal. On M5, minutes matter (see §4). If you are very late — price already moved a large part of the way to the arm level — skip the trade. There is always another signal.</li>
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<li><b>Place the stop loss immediately</b> at the given SL. No mental stops — gold gaps and spikes.</li>
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<li><b>Manage with the trail, not TP1.</b> When price reaches the arm level printed in the message, start trailing the stop the stated $ distance behind the best price, tightening only at candle close. This is what produced the backtested results; taking fixed TP1 profits gives most of the edge away.</li>
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<li><b>One signal, one trade.</b> The M5, M15 and H1 books confirm off each other and are usually long or short gold at the same time. Taking the same move on multiple timeframes multiplies risk, not diversification. Pick your timeframe (§4) and ignore the others.</li>
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</ol>
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<h2>4 · Choosing your timeframe</h2>
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<p>Twelve-month Oanda-candle backtest (Aug 2025 – Aug 2026, $0.65 round-trip cost, entry at next candle open):</p>
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<table>
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<tr><th></th><th>M5</th><th>M15</th><th>H1</th></tr>
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<tr><td>Trades / week</td><td>~11.3</td><td>~7.6</td><td>~2.7</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Total result (12 mo)</td><td>+106.8R</td><td>+73.9R</td><td>+24.0R</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Win rate / profit factor</td><td>52.9% / 1.51</td><td>62.2% / 1.53</td><td>60.9% / 1.55</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Typical (median) hold</td><td>2.4 h</td><td>7 h</td><td>15.5 h</td></tr>
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<tr><td>90% of trades close within</td><td>10.5 h</td><td>29.8 h</td><td>3.2 days</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Typical stop distance</td><td>~$21</td><td>~$32</td><td>~$52</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Worst drawdown</td><td>10.7R</td><td>10.8R</td><td>8.0R</td></tr>
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</table>
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<ul>
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<li><b>M5 — intraday, execution-critical.</b> Highest total edge, but stops are tight: a couple of dollars of slippage or a late entry eats a meaningful share of every trade. Suitable only if you can act within a minute or two of the alert (or automate). Trades open and close within a session; you sleep flat. SELL signals are held back while the market regime reads "transitioning" — a validated filter, not a bug if you notice fewer shorts there.</li>
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<li><b>M15 — the middle path.</b> Same frequency as M5, wider stops, up to 15 minutes to act. About half your trades will still be open overnight. Since 2026-09-09 the M15 scoring gives its RSI reading half the weight it used to (RSI mostly voted against the trend on this timeframe), so expect roughly 9 signals a week instead of 7–8; in the two-year test (Sep 2024 – Sep 2026) that change lifted M15 from +117.6R to +146.1R with the same win rate and a slightly better profit factor, and it also improved the separate out-of-sample period. The M15 column above predates it.</li>
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<li><b>H1 — swing trading around a normal life.</b> Best quality per trade and very forgiving of slow manual execution (you have up to an hour). The costs: positions held for days, through news and overnight sessions, and a <b>lumpy</b> equity curve — one quarter of the test year was negative and most of the profit came in a single quarter. Judge it on quarters, not weeks. H1 no longer issues SELL signals at all (blocked since 2026-09-03) — it is BUY-only on this timeframe.</li>
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</ul>
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<div class="callout"><b>If you trade manually from the Telegram alerts, H1 (or M15) is the honest choice.</b> M5's backtested edge assumes near-instant fills that a human copying signals rarely achieves.</div>
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<h2>5 · What to expect (and what not to)</h2>
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<ul>
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<li><b>You will lose roughly 38–47% of trades.</b> A 53–62% win rate means losing streaks of 5+ are routine over a year. The system's edge is the average across hundreds of trades, not any single one.</li>
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<li><b>Stops hit fast, winners take time.</b> Losing trades die in roughly half the time winners take. An early stop-out is the system doing its job.</li>
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<li><b>Drawdowns of ~10R are normal.</b> At 1% risk per trade, expect to be ~10% down from a peak at some point in a normal year. This is why risking more than 1% per trade is how accounts die.</li>
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<li><b>Backtest ≠ live.</b> Results above charge real spreads and realistic fills, but cannot model your personal latency, broker slippage, or requotes. Assume live results will be somewhat worse — especially on M5.</li>
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<li><b>Quiet periods are normal.</b> Filters block bad hours, bad regimes and misaligned timeframes. Days can pass without a signal.</li>
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</ul>
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<h2>6 · Rules that keep you alive</h2>
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<div class="callout red">
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<b>The five rules</b>
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<ol style="margin-bottom:0">
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<li>Risk a fixed 0.5–1% per trade. Never "make it back" by sizing up after losses.</li>
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<li>Hard stop loss in the market on every trade, placed at entry time.</li>
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<li>One timeframe, one trade at a time. No stacking, no pyramiding onto bot signals.</li>
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<li>Missed the entry? Skip it. Chasing converts a positive-edge trade into a coin flip.</li>
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<li>Evaluate performance monthly at the earliest, quarterly for H1. Never after a bad day.</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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<h2>7 · Bot commands (owner)</h2>
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<table>
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<tr><th style="width:30%">Command</th><th>What it does</th></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/start</code></td><td>Show the button menu (manual scans per timeframe, Scan All TFs).</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/scan</code></td><td>Run an immediate analysis of the primary timeframe.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/autoscan</code></td><td>Toggle automatic scanning (M5 / M15 / H1 / H4 at each candle close).</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/status</code></td><td>Uptime, auto-scan state, WebSocket price-monitor state.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/news</code></td><td>Net XAU/USD news score from the last 4 hours of headlines (neutral headlines are removed before averaging; informational only — never gates signals).</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/cache</code> · <code>/clearcache</code></td><td>Inspect / reset the market-data cache.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/help</code></td><td>Command reference.</td></tr>
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</table>
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<p class="small">The bot also streams live prices over WebSocket and fires an immediate scan when price breaches a key level (swing S/R, Bollinger, Keltner, EMA-200). Commands respond only to the configured owner chat; subscribers receive the signal feed via the channel.</p>
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<div class="disclaimer"><b>⚠️ Risk disclaimer.</b> This bot and guide are for educational and research purposes only and are <b>not financial advice</b>. Trading forex, gold and CFDs on margin carries a high risk of loss; past (and backtested) performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own analysis and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.</div>
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