Initial import: XAUUSD news sentiment models, evals, and data tooling
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py) with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27 results and progress notes. Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py. The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.
This commit is contained in:
Harwinder Sekhon
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""Collect historical headlines from Google News RSS into data/history.db.
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One request per (query, date window), e.g.
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``gold site:reuters.com after:2019-07-22 before:2019-07-29``. Google
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returns at most 100 items per request. The crawl is
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resumable: finished (query, window) pairs are recorded in ``crawl_log``
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and skipped on the next run. Requests are sequential with a fixed
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delay; on HTTP 429/503 the crawler backs off and stops after repeated
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refusals rather than hammering the service.
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Headlines are stored once per normalised text (``hash``); the queries
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that found a headline are kept in ``queries``. Nothing here labels or
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filters against the golden set; label_history.py and the trainer do.
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Usage:
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python data_collect/crawl_google_news.py # precise set
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python data_collect/crawl_google_news.py --query-set broad # off-topic side
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python data_collect/crawl_google_news.py --query-set growth --window-days 30 # growth data + equities
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python data_collect/crawl_google_news.py --limit 20 # smoke test
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import argparse
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import email.utils
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import hashlib
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import html
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import random
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import re
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import sqlite3
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import sys
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import time
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import urllib.error
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import urllib.parse
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import urllib.request
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import xml.etree.ElementTree as ET
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from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone
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from pathlib import Path
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ML_NEWS_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
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DEFAULT_DB = ML_NEWS_DIR / "data" / "history.db"
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FEED_URL = "https://news.google.com/rss/search?q={q}&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en"
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USER_AGENT = "Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) ML-NEWS research crawler"
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#: Scoped to financial publishers: unscoped queries return mostly
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#: general news ("gold price" -> phone prices, "safe haven" -> baby-box
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#: laws). Reuters answers each weekly window with up to 100 market
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#: headlines. Topics cover gold doctrine (Fed, dollar, yields,
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#: inflation, jobs, central banks, geopolitics, risk appetite) plus
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#: off-topic controls (oil, crypto, single stocks) so the relevance head
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#: sees news that does not move gold.
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BROAD_QUERIES = (
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"gold site:reuters.com",
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"Fed site:reuters.com",
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"dollar site:reuters.com",
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"yields site:reuters.com",
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"inflation site:reuters.com",
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"payrolls OR jobless site:reuters.com",
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"\"central bank\" site:reuters.com",
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"stocks site:reuters.com",
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"war OR sanctions OR tensions site:reuters.com",
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"euro OR yen OR sterling site:reuters.com",
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"oil site:reuters.com",
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"bitcoin OR crypto site:reuters.com",
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"gold site:cnbc.com",
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"markets site:cnbc.com",
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"site:marketwatch.com",
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)
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#: A keyword in the query matches anywhere in the article, so the broad
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#: set is ~93% headlines that do not move gold (2026-09-23 pilot: 70 of
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#: 1,000 DeepSeek-relevant). ``intitle:`` restricts the match to the
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#: headline: 3-15 items per week per query, mostly gold doctrine. The
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#: broad set supplies the not-relevant side, this one the relevant side.
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PRECISE_QUERIES = tuple(
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f"intitle:{term} site:{site}"
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for site in ("reuters.com", "cnbc.com", "marketwatch.com")
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for term in ("gold", "bullion", "Fed", "Powell", "dollar", "yields",
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"inflation", "payrolls", '"rate cut"', '"rate hike"', '"safe haven"')
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if site == "reuters.com" or term in ("gold", "Fed", "dollar", "yields", "inflation")
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)
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#: The two golden-set categories the 2026-09-27 model still fails are
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#: strong-US-data (3/7) and risk-on (1/4): "GDP beats", "stocks at record
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#: highs", "ceasefire lifts markets" should all be bearish for gold, but
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#: no precise query covers growth data or equities. ``intitle:`` again,
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#: so label_history.py puts these in the precise pool.
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GROWTH_TERMS = ("GDP", '"retail sales"', "ISM", "PMI", '"consumer confidence"',
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'"jobless claims"', '"consumer spending"', "manufacturing")
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RISK_TERMS = ('"record high"', '"risk appetite"', '"Wall Street"', '"S&P 500"',
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"ceasefire", '"trade deal"', "equities")
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GROWTH_QUERIES = tuple(
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f"intitle:{term} site:{site}"
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for site in ("reuters.com", "cnbc.com")
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for term in GROWTH_TERMS + RISK_TERMS
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if site == "reuters.com" or term in ("GDP", '"retail sales"', '"jobless claims"',
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'"record high"', '"S&P 500"')
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)
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QUERY_SETS = {"broad": BROAD_QUERIES, "precise": PRECISE_QUERIES, "growth": GROWTH_QUERIES}
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SCHEMA = """
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS headlines (
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hash TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
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headline TEXT NOT NULL,
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raw_title TEXT NOT NULL,
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publisher TEXT,
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published_at TEXT,
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first_query TEXT NOT NULL,
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queries TEXT NOT NULL,
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link TEXT,
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crawled_at TEXT NOT NULL
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);
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CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_headlines_published ON headlines (published_at);
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS crawl_log (
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query TEXT NOT NULL,
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window_start TEXT NOT NULL,
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items INTEGER NOT NULL,
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new_headlines INTEGER NOT NULL,
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crawled_at TEXT NOT NULL,
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PRIMARY KEY (query, window_start)
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);
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"""
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_SPACE = re.compile(r"\s+")
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def normalise(text: str) -> str:
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return _SPACE.sub(" ", html.unescape(text)).strip()
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def headline_key(headline: str) -> str:
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"""Hash of the case-folded, whitespace-collapsed headline."""
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return hashlib.sha256(normalise(headline).casefold().encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
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def strip_publisher(title: str, publisher: str | None) -> str:
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"""Google appends ' - Publisher' to every title; drop it."""
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title = normalise(title)
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if publisher:
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suffix = f" - {normalise(publisher)}"
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if title.endswith(suffix):
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return title[: -len(suffix)].strip()
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return title
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def windows_of(start: date, end: date, days: int):
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day = start
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while day < end:
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yield day, min(day + timedelta(days=days), end)
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day += timedelta(days=days)
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def fetch(url: str, timeout: float) -> bytes:
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request = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": USER_AGENT})
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with urllib.request.urlopen(request, timeout=timeout) as response:
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return response.read()
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def parse_items(payload: bytes):
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root = ET.fromstring(payload)
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for item in root.findall("./channel/item"):
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title = item.findtext("title") or ""
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publisher = item.findtext("source")
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published = item.findtext("pubDate")
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published_at = None
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if published:
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try:
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published_at = email.utils.parsedate_to_datetime(published).astimezone(
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timezone.utc).isoformat()
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except (TypeError, ValueError):
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published_at = None
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headline = strip_publisher(title, publisher)
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if headline:
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yield {
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"headline": headline,
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"raw_title": normalise(title),
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"publisher": publisher,
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"published_at": published_at,
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"link": item.findtext("link"),
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}
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def store(conn: sqlite3.Connection, query: str, items) -> tuple[int, int]:
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now = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()
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seen = new = 0
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for it in items:
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seen += 1
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key = headline_key(it["headline"])
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row = conn.execute("SELECT queries FROM headlines WHERE hash = ?", (key,)).fetchone()
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if row is None:
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conn.execute(
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"INSERT INTO headlines (hash, headline, raw_title, publisher, published_at,"
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" first_query, queries, link, crawled_at) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)",
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(key, it["headline"], it["raw_title"], it["publisher"], it["published_at"],
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query, query, it["link"], now))
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new += 1
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elif query not in row[0].split("|"):
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conn.execute("UPDATE headlines SET queries = ? WHERE hash = ?",
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(row[0] + "|" + query, key))
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return seen, new
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def main() -> int:
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ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.split("\n\n")[0])
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ap.add_argument("--db", type=Path, default=DEFAULT_DB)
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ap.add_argument("--start", type=date.fromisoformat, default=date(2019, 1, 7))
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ap.add_argument("--end", type=date.fromisoformat, default=date(2026, 9, 1))
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ap.add_argument("--delay", type=float, default=2.0, help="seconds between requests")
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ap.add_argument("--timeout", type=float, default=20.0)
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ap.add_argument("--limit", type=int, default=0, help="stop after N requests (0 = all)")
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ap.add_argument("--query-set", choices=sorted(QUERY_SETS), default="precise")
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ap.add_argument("--window-days", type=int, default=0,
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help="search window length (default: 7 broad, 14 precise; precise "
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"queries return 3-15 items a week, far under the 100 cap)")
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ap.add_argument("--max-refusals", type=int, default=5,
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help="stop after this many consecutive 429/503 responses")
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args = ap.parse_args()
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args.db.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
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conn = sqlite3.connect(args.db)
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conn.executescript(SCHEMA)
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done = {(q, w) for q, w in conn.execute("SELECT query, window_start FROM crawl_log")}
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queries = QUERY_SETS[args.query_set]
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days = args.window_days or (14 if args.query_set == "precise" else 7)
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windows = list(windows_of(args.start, args.end, days))
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# Seeded shuffle, window-major: an interrupted crawl still covers
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# every year and every query evenly, so a pilot on a partial crawl
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# is not all 2019.
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random.Random(0).shuffle(windows)
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todo = [(q, a, b) for a, b in windows for q in queries if (q, a.isoformat()) not in done]
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print(f"{args.query_set}: {len(windows)} windows of {days} days x {len(queries)} queries; "
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f"{len(done)} done, {len(todo)} to go", flush=True)
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requests = refusals = 0
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started = time.monotonic()
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for query, a, b in todo:
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if args.limit and requests >= args.limit:
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break
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q = f"{query} after:{a.isoformat()} before:{b.isoformat()}"
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url = FEED_URL.format(q=urllib.parse.quote_plus(q))
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try:
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payload = fetch(url, args.timeout)
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except urllib.error.HTTPError as error:
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if error.code in (429, 503):
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refusals += 1
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wait = min(600, 30 * 2 ** (refusals - 1))
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print(f"HTTP {error.code} on {q!r}; refusal {refusals}, sleeping {wait}s",
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flush=True)
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if refusals >= args.max_refusals:
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print("too many refusals, stopping; rerun later to resume", flush=True)
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break
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time.sleep(wait)
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continue
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print(f"HTTP {error.code} on {q!r}; skipped", flush=True)
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time.sleep(args.delay)
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continue
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except (urllib.error.URLError, TimeoutError, OSError) as error:
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print(f"network error on {q!r}: {error}; skipped", flush=True)
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time.sleep(args.delay * 5)
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continue
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refusals = 0
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requests += 1
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try:
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seen, new = store(conn, query, parse_items(payload))
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except ET.ParseError as error:
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print(f"bad XML for {q!r}: {error}; skipped", flush=True)
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time.sleep(args.delay)
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continue
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conn.execute(
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"INSERT OR REPLACE INTO crawl_log VALUES (?,?,?,?,?)",
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(query, a.isoformat(), seen, new, datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()))
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conn.commit()
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if requests % 100 == 0:
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total = conn.execute("SELECT count(*) FROM headlines").fetchone()[0]
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rate = requests / (time.monotonic() - started)
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print(f"{requests} requests, window {a}, {total} unique headlines, "
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f"{rate * 60:.0f} req/min", flush=True)
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time.sleep(args.delay)
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total = conn.execute("SELECT count(*) FROM headlines").fetchone()[0]
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print(f"done: {requests} requests this run, {total} unique headlines in {args.db}",
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flush=True)
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conn.close()
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return 0
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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sys.exit(main())
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