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Initial import: XAUUSD news sentiment models, evals, and data tooling

Browse Source 
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the
two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py)
with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the
golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27
results and progress notes.

Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not
tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py.
The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.
This commit is contained in:
Harwinder Sekhon
2026-09-27 19:22:30 -04:00
commit 01baef48ff
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headline,category,exp,rationale,model_label,model_cls,model_score,model_conf,model_margin,model_cls_band,model_ms,kw_xau,kw_cls,ds_s,ds_xau,ds_cls,ds_cached
Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky,hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish",bearish,-1,-0.1765,0.4426,0.1513,-1,4.03,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year,hawkish_fed,-1,more hikes = stronger dollar/yields,bearish,-1,-0.9289,0.961,0.9289,-1,1.12,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening,hawkish_fed,-1,tightening expectations weigh on gold,bearish,-1,-0.457,0.6391,0.457,-1,1.06,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy,hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.4544,0.5605,0.2271,-1,0.99,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,outsized hike plus hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.3253,0.5563,0.3253,-1,0.95,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes,hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up",bearish,-1,-0.1876,0.5848,0.1876,-1,0.98,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish repricing,bearish,-1,-0.8645,0.9227,0.8645,-1,0.95,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year,hawkish_fed,-1,easing priced out,bearish,-1,-0.3705,0.5953,0.3705,-1,0.92,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come,dovish_fed,1,easing cycle is gold-bullish,bearish,-1,-0.6552,0.7834,0.6552,-1,0.92,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.4517,0.6713,0.4517,1,0.94,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing,dovish_fed,1,dovish minutes,neutral,0,0.1861,0.5818,0.2797,1,0.92,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.0572,0.4318,0.0572,0,0.94,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot,dovish_fed,1,pivot odds up,bullish,1,0.5555,0.7373,0.5555,1,0.96,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,easing priced in,bearish,-1,-0.4495,0.6875,0.4495,-1,0.93,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters,dovish_fed,1,global easing backdrop,bullish,1,0.302,0.5932,0.302,1,0.94,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy,dovish_fed,1,QE is gold-bullish,neutral,0,-0.0885,0.374,0.0167,0,0.92,0.0,0,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data,strong_usd,-1,strong dollar pressures gold,bearish,-1,-0.475,0.606,0.343,-1,0.91,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication",bearish,-1,-0.0263,0.354,0.0263,0,0.92,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board,strong_usd,-1,strong jobs lift dollar and yields,bearish,-1,-0.2741,0.5452,0.2741,-1,0.94,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,strong data,bearish,-1,-0.4769,0.6191,0.3803,-1,0.94,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia,strong_usd,-1,dollar strength,bullish,1,0.7808,0.8306,0.7111,1,0.92,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bearish,-1,-0.5939,0.7515,0.5939,-1,0.91,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.3975,0.5241,0.1749,1,1.02,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data,weak_usd,1,weak dollar lifts gold,neutral,0,0.0207,0.4664,0.1893,0,0.96,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides,weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication",bullish,1,0.0828,0.5162,0.0828,0,0.99,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract,weak_usd,1,weak data,bearish,-1,-0.0489,0.4665,0.0489,0,0.95,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.6,1,True
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,slowdown is dovish,bullish,1,0.2091,0.5832,0.2091,1,0.99,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record,weak_usd,1,dollar weakness,bullish,1,0.3622,0.6054,0.3622,1,0.94,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.5,1,True
Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy,weak_usd,1,cooling economy,neutral,0,0.2533,0.4396,0.0328,1,0.95,0.0,0,-0.4,0.4,1,True
US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low,weak_usd,1,weak data,bullish,1,0.398,0.5068,0.1224,1,0.94,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off,real_yields,-1,rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost,bearish,-1,-0.7863,0.872,0.7863,-1,0.98,0.0,0,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut,real_yields,-1,yield spike,bearish,-1,-0.8385,0.9145,0.8385,-1,0.93,1.0,1,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets,real_yields,-1,explicit opportunity-cost story,bearish,-1,-0.3093,0.5168,0.2412,-1,0.93,0.0,0,0.5,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds,real_yields,1,falling yields support gold,bearish,-1,-0.636,0.783,0.636,-1,0.89,0.0,0,-0.5,0.6,1,True
Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates,real_yields,1,negative real yields are gold's best backdrop,bearish,-1,-0.6159,0.7749,0.6159,-1,0.9,0.0,0,-0.6,0.8,1,True
Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year,real_yields,1,falling yields,bearish,-1,-0.3144,0.613,0.3144,-1,0.94,1.0,1,-0.5,0.6,1,True
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,safe-haven bid,bullish,1,0.5936,0.6582,0.3809,1,0.96,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread,safe_haven,1,crisis flight to safety,bullish,1,0.4643,0.6331,0.4349,1,0.92,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets,safe_haven,1,explicit haven flow,bullish,1,0.4289,0.5267,0.1511,1,0.9,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default,safe_haven,1,default shock,bullish,1,0.3735,0.5085,0.152,1,0.93,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets,safe_haven,1,geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.285,0.4913,0.1889,1,0.91,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic,safe_haven,1,risk-off,bullish,1,0.7518,0.8264,0.7273,1,0.9,-1.0,-1,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears,safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid",bullish,1,0.4071,0.5596,0.2716,1,0.92,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,extreme geopolitical stress,neutral,0,0.0526,0.4476,0.1451,0,0.99,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,haven unwind,bullish,1,0.3043,0.5132,0.2352,1,0.92,0.0,0,0.6,-0.7,-1,True
Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed,risk_on,-1,risk-on drains haven demand,bullish,1,0.5773,0.7171,0.574,1,0.92,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.1217,0.5155,0.1217,0,0.92,0.0,0,0.6,-0.6,-1,True
Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions,risk_on,-1,risk-on,neutral,0,0.0958,0.4756,0.1655,0,0.92,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion,gold_direct,1,direct demand,bullish,1,0.5613,0.764,0.5613,1,0.93,1.0,1,0.8,0.9,1,True
Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years,gold_direct,1,investment inflows,bearish,-1,-0.018,0.3503,0.018,0,0.93,0.0,0,0.7,0.8,1,True
China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month,gold_direct,1,official-sector demand,bullish,1,0.3544,0.6295,0.3544,1,0.94,0.0,0,0.6,0.7,1,True
Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens,gold_direct,1,supply deficit,bullish,1,0.6965,0.8099,0.6965,1,0.91,-1.0,-1,0.5,0.6,1,True
Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run,gold_direct,-1,profit-taking pressure,bearish,-1,-0.9475,0.9703,0.9475,-1,0.94,-1.0,-1,-0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate,gold_direct,-1,outflows,bearish,-1,-0.9836,0.9893,0.9836,-1,0.95,-1.0,-1,-0.7,-0.9,-1,True
Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls,gold_direct,-1,physical demand soft,bearish,-1,-0.9648,0.9802,0.9648,-1,0.95,-1.0,-1,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens,gold_direct,-1,positioning unwind,bearish,-1,-0.8333,0.9141,0.8333,-1,0.96,1.0,1,-0.5,-0.6,-1,True
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish,bearish,-1,-0.8074,0.8635,0.7831,-1,0.96,-1.0,-1,0.3,0.5,1,True
Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling,negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.4706,0.6358,0.4369,1,0.96,1.0,1,-0.2,-0.3,-1,True
Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates,negation_traps,-1,fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out,bullish,1,0.2828,0.5504,0.2828,1,0.93,0.0,0,0.4,-0.4,-1,True
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,disinflation opens door to cuts,bullish,1,0.0607,0.4982,0.0607,0,0.92,1.0,1,0.3,0.4,1,True
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,hawkish pushback phrased around negations,bullish,1,0.1708,0.4485,0.1708,1,0.95,0.0,0,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold with tightening bias,bullish,1,0.0316,0.3583,0.0316,0,0.96,-1.0,-1,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,explicitly negated haven demand,bullish,1,0.5018,0.5473,0.1402,1,0.96,0.0,0,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,less-bad data is dollar-positive,bullish,1,0.1619,0.5121,0.1619,1,0.94,0.0,0,0.3,-0.4,-1,True
US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up,inverted_metrics,1,weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish,bullish,1,0.7146,0.7732,0.6049,1,0.92,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
US factory activity slumps to three-year low,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish,bullish,1,0.2458,0.4944,0.2374,1,0.99,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Consumer spending falls for third straight month,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish,bearish,-1,-0.4585,0.61,0.3715,-1,0.92,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020,inverted_metrics,1,weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish,bearish,-1,-0.4666,0.6299,0.423,-1,0.91,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread,inverted_metrics,1,higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish,neutral,0,0.1014,0.4757,0.1628,0,0.92,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.1838,0.4889,0.1838,1,0.92,0.0,0,-0.6,0.6,1,True
Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0953,0.4492,0.1261,0,0.91,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.2856,0.5013,0.2184,1,0.92,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.2028,0.5275,0.1898,1,0.94,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.427,0.4983,0.0679,1,0.94,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.2173,0.4459,0.0601,1,0.91,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,-0.0675,0.4344,0.1179,0,0.92,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.3573,0.4554,0.0089,1,0.92,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Local elections see record turnout in several US states,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.1101,0.7136,0.5153,0,0.9,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
1 headline category exp rationale model_label model_cls model_score model_conf model_margin model_cls_band model_ms kw_xau kw_cls ds_s ds_xau ds_cls ds_cached
2 Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky hawkish_fed -1 higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish bearish -1 -0.1765 0.4426 0.1513 -1 4.03 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
3 Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year hawkish_fed -1 more hikes = stronger dollar/yields bearish -1 -0.9289 0.961 0.9289 -1 1.12 -1.0 -1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
4 Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening hawkish_fed -1 tightening expectations weigh on gold bearish -1 -0.457 0.6391 0.457 -1 1.06 -1.0 -1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
5 Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy hawkish_fed -1 hawkish guidance bearish -1 -0.4544 0.5605 0.2271 -1 0.99 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
6 FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead hawkish_fed -1 outsized hike plus hawkish guidance bearish -1 -0.3253 0.5563 0.3253 -1 0.95 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
7 Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes hawkish_fed -1 cut hopes dashed, yields up bearish -1 -0.1876 0.5848 0.1876 -1 0.98 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
8 Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance hawkish_fed -1 hawkish repricing bearish -1 -0.8645 0.9227 0.8645 -1 0.95 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
9 Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year hawkish_fed -1 easing priced out bearish -1 -0.3705 0.5953 0.3705 -1 0.92 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
10 Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come dovish_fed 1 easing cycle is gold-bullish bearish -1 -0.6552 0.7834 0.6552 -1 0.92 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
11 Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target dovish_fed 1 cut guidance bullish 1 0.4517 0.6713 0.4517 1 0.94 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
12 FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing dovish_fed 1 dovish minutes neutral 0 0.1861 0.5818 0.2797 1 0.92 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
13 Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year dovish_fed 1 cut guidance bullish 1 0.0572 0.4318 0.0572 0 0.94 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
14 Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot dovish_fed 1 pivot odds up bullish 1 0.5555 0.7373 0.5555 1 0.96 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
15 Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle dovish_fed 1 easing priced in bearish -1 -0.4495 0.6875 0.4495 -1 0.93 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
16 Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters dovish_fed 1 global easing backdrop bullish 1 0.302 0.5932 0.302 1 0.94 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
17 Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy dovish_fed 1 QE is gold-bullish neutral 0 -0.0885 0.374 0.0167 0 0.92 0.0 0 -0.4 0.7 1 True
18 Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data strong_usd -1 strong dollar pressures gold bearish -1 -0.475 0.606 0.343 -1 0.91 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
19 US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations strong_usd -1 strong economy, hawkish implication bearish -1 -0.0263 0.354 0.0263 0 0.92 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
20 Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board strong_usd -1 strong jobs lift dollar and yields bearish -1 -0.2741 0.5452 0.2741 -1 0.94 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
21 US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength strong_usd -1 strong data bearish -1 -0.4769 0.6191 0.3803 -1 0.94 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
22 Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia strong_usd -1 dollar strength bullish 1 0.7808 0.8306 0.7111 1 0.92 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
23 ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand strong_usd -1 strong data bearish -1 -0.5939 0.7515 0.5939 -1 0.91 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
24 Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US strong_usd -1 strong data bullish 1 0.3975 0.5241 0.1749 1 1.02 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
25 Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data weak_usd 1 weak dollar lifts gold neutral 0 0.0207 0.4664 0.1893 0 0.96 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
26 US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides weak_usd 1 weak jobs, dovish implication bullish 1 0.0828 0.5162 0.0828 0 0.99 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
27 Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract weak_usd 1 weak data bearish -1 -0.0489 0.4665 0.0489 0 0.95 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.6 1 True
28 US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears weak_usd 1 slowdown is dovish bullish 1 0.2091 0.5832 0.2091 1 0.99 0.0 0 -0.5 0.5 1 True
29 Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record weak_usd 1 dollar weakness bullish 1 0.3622 0.6054 0.3622 1 0.94 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.5 1 True
30 Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy weak_usd 1 cooling economy neutral 0 0.2533 0.4396 0.0328 1 0.95 0.0 0 -0.4 0.4 1 True
31 US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low weak_usd 1 weak data bullish 1 0.398 0.5068 0.1224 1 0.94 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
32 Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off real_yields -1 rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost bearish -1 -0.7863 0.872 0.7863 -1 0.98 0.0 0 0.6 -0.8 -1 True
33 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut real_yields -1 yield spike bearish -1 -0.8385 0.9145 0.8385 -1 0.93 1.0 1 0.6 -0.8 -1 True
34 Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets real_yields -1 explicit opportunity-cost story bearish -1 -0.3093 0.5168 0.2412 -1 0.93 0.0 0 0.5 -0.7 -1 True
35 Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds real_yields 1 falling yields support gold bearish -1 -0.636 0.783 0.636 -1 0.89 0.0 0 -0.5 0.6 1 True
36 Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates real_yields 1 negative real yields are gold's best backdrop bearish -1 -0.6159 0.7749 0.6159 -1 0.9 0.0 0 -0.6 0.8 1 True
37 Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year real_yields 1 falling yields bearish -1 -0.3144 0.613 0.3144 -1 0.94 1.0 1 -0.5 0.6 1 True
38 Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety safe_haven 1 safe-haven bid bullish 1 0.5936 0.6582 0.3809 1 0.96 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
39 Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread safe_haven 1 crisis flight to safety bullish 1 0.4643 0.6331 0.4349 1 0.92 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
40 Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets safe_haven 1 explicit haven flow bullish 1 0.4289 0.5267 0.1511 1 0.9 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
41 Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default safe_haven 1 default shock bullish 1 0.3735 0.5085 0.152 1 0.93 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
42 Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets safe_haven 1 geopolitical stress bullish 1 0.285 0.4913 0.1889 1 0.91 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
43 Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic safe_haven 1 risk-off bullish 1 0.7518 0.8264 0.7273 1 0.9 -1.0 -1 -0.8 0.9 1 True
44 Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears safe_haven 1 contagion, haven bid bullish 1 0.4071 0.5596 0.2716 1 0.92 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
45 Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens safe_haven 1 extreme geopolitical stress neutral 0 0.0526 0.4476 0.1451 0 0.99 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
46 Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades risk_on -1 haven unwind bullish 1 0.3043 0.5132 0.2352 1 0.92 0.0 0 0.6 -0.7 -1 True
47 Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed risk_on -1 risk-on drains haven demand bullish 1 0.5773 0.7171 0.574 1 0.92 1.0 1 0.7 -0.7 -1 True
48 Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside risk_on -1 risk-on bullish 1 0.1217 0.5155 0.1217 0 0.92 0.0 0 0.6 -0.6 -1 True
49 Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions risk_on -1 risk-on neutral 0 0.0958 0.4756 0.1655 0 0.92 1.0 1 0.7 -0.7 -1 True
50 Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion gold_direct 1 direct demand bullish 1 0.5613 0.764 0.5613 1 0.93 1.0 1 0.8 0.9 1 True
51 Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years gold_direct 1 investment inflows bearish -1 -0.018 0.3503 0.018 0 0.93 0.0 0 0.7 0.8 1 True
52 China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month gold_direct 1 official-sector demand bullish 1 0.3544 0.6295 0.3544 1 0.94 0.0 0 0.6 0.7 1 True
53 Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens gold_direct 1 supply deficit bullish 1 0.6965 0.8099 0.6965 1 0.91 -1.0 -1 0.5 0.6 1 True
54 Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run gold_direct -1 profit-taking pressure bearish -1 -0.9475 0.9703 0.9475 -1 0.94 -1.0 -1 -0.6 -0.8 -1 True
55 Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate gold_direct -1 outflows bearish -1 -0.9836 0.9893 0.9836 -1 0.95 -1.0 -1 -0.7 -0.9 -1 True
56 Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls gold_direct -1 physical demand soft bearish -1 -0.9648 0.9802 0.9648 -1 0.95 -1.0 -1 -0.4 -0.5 -1 True
57 Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens gold_direct -1 positioning unwind bearish -1 -0.8333 0.9141 0.8333 -1 0.96 1.0 1 -0.5 -0.6 -1 True
58 Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon negation_traps 1 dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish bearish -1 -0.8074 0.8635 0.7831 -1 0.96 -1.0 -1 0.3 0.5 1 True
59 Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling negation_traps -1 hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish bullish 1 0.4706 0.6358 0.4369 1 0.96 1.0 1 -0.2 -0.3 -1 True
60 Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates negation_traps -1 fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out bullish 1 0.2828 0.5504 0.2828 1 0.93 0.0 0 0.4 -0.4 -1 True
61 Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed negation_traps 1 disinflation opens door to cuts bullish 1 0.0607 0.4982 0.0607 0 0.92 1.0 1 0.3 0.4 1 True
62 Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature negation_traps -1 hawkish pushback phrased around negations bullish 1 0.1708 0.4485 0.1708 1 0.95 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.5 -1 True
63 Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume negation_traps -1 hawkish hold with tightening bias bullish 1 0.0316 0.3583 0.0316 0 0.96 -1.0 -1 -0.3 -0.4 -1 True
64 No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say negation_traps -1 explicitly negated haven demand bullish 1 0.5018 0.5473 0.1402 1 0.96 0.0 0 -0.3 -0.4 -1 True
65 Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers negation_traps -1 less-bad data is dollar-positive bullish 1 0.1619 0.5121 0.1619 1 0.94 0.0 0 0.3 -0.4 -1 True
66 US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up inverted_metrics 1 weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish bullish 1 0.7146 0.7732 0.6049 1 0.92 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
67 US factory activity slumps to three-year low inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish bullish 1 0.2458 0.4944 0.2374 1 0.99 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
68 Consumer spending falls for third straight month inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish bearish -1 -0.4585 0.61 0.3715 -1 0.92 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
69 Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 inverted_metrics 1 weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish bearish -1 -0.4666 0.6299 0.423 -1 0.91 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
70 Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread inverted_metrics 1 higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish neutral 0 0.1014 0.4757 0.1628 0 0.92 0.0 0 -0.5 0.5 1 True
71 US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 inverted_metrics 1 higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish bullish 1 0.1838 0.4889 0.1838 1 0.92 0.0 0 -0.6 0.6 1 True
72 Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.0953 0.4492 0.1261 0 0.91 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
73 New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.2856 0.5013 0.2184 1 0.92 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
74 Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.2028 0.5275 0.1898 1 0.94 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
75 Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.427 0.4983 0.0679 1 0.94 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
76 Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.2173 0.4459 0.0601 1 0.91 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
77 Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 -0.0675 0.4344 0.1179 0 0.92 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
78 Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.3573 0.4554 0.0089 1 0.92 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
79 Local elections see record turnout in several US states distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.1101 0.7136 0.5153 0 0.9 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True