Initial import: XAUUSD news sentiment models, evals, and data tooling

TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the
two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py)
with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the
golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27
results and progress notes.

Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not
tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py.
The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.
This commit is contained in:
Harwinder Sekhon
2026-09-27 19:22:30 -04:00
commit 01baef48ff
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{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "6f60ac3da44ff507fc17fc614030b874d5f244e993d84ee44d9f8d6a93b524fb", "headline": "Fed's unanimous hike stirs debate over how long high inflation persists", "description": "UBS's view that further hikes remain likely this year points to continued support for the US dollar and real yields, a combination that raises the opportunity cost of holding gold and could see some of August's ETF inflows unwind in the near term. Longer term, the bank argues gold's investment case remains intact, underpinned by rising global debt, an expected weaker dollar and the prospect of rate cuts next year. Other analysts framed the unanimous vote as evidence the Fed is taking a firmer st…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T22:31:46+00:00", "currencies": ["USD"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.4, "ds_xau": -0.7, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bullish", "model_cls": 1, "model_score": 0.0594, "model_conf": 0.3985, "model_margin": 0.0594, "model_ms": 4.3, "model_h_label": "bearish", "model_h_cls": -1, "model_h_score": -0.1616, "model_h_conf": 0.5379, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "4b6b58f81a0107de48d87dca26e3711418db61b61c04e41139e39c4e672212c9", "headline": "Preview: RBA Gov. Bullock testimony in focus as markets price 70-75% chance of a hike", "description": "Today's appearance is a routine parliamentary hearing rather than a policy decision, so the direct market impact should be limited unless Bullock's answers shift the tone from recent RBA communication. Even so, any fresh comment on inflation persistence or the labour market could move rate pricing ahead of the September 28-29 meeting, where a further 25 basis point increase is currently priced at around 70 to 75%. The Australian dollar and short end yields are the most likely to react to any haw…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T21:09:02+00:00", "currencies": ["AUD"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.3, "ds_xau": -0.5, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "neutral", "model_cls": 0, "model_score": 0.0437, "model_conf": 0.4269, "model_margin": 0.1185, "model_ms": 1.31, "model_h_label": "bearish", "model_h_cls": -1, "model_h_score": -0.2882, "model_h_conf": 0.5596, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "2729f813a40a598cadf75ffdfe6b075963000d17b4063c5a6689feb046ab2e5f", "headline": "Preview: BoJ set to hike rates today, focus turns to pace and yen reaction", "description": "With a quarter point hike now close to fully priced, the tradeable content today sits less in the decision itself and more in Governor Ueda's guidance on what follows it. USD/JPY has already fallen from around 160 to near 153 over recent weeks as hike odds built, which leaves room for a \"buy the rumour, sell the fact\" reaction if Ueda's tone stays cautious and data dependent. Goldman Sachs argues a faster tightening path would put upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields and could supp…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T20:54:26+00:00", "currencies": ["JPY"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.3, "ds_xau": -0.5, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bearish", "model_cls": -1, "model_score": -0.1003, "model_conf": 0.4306, "model_margin": 0.1003, "model_ms": 1.28, "model_h_label": "bearish", "model_h_cls": -1, "model_h_score": -0.1073, "model_h_conf": 0.4029, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "d399757bf3fee04301a91bd3bf58b5aa562f44b48e1be4c8312661ba42ecad10", "headline": "Preview: BoJ rate hike bet stays intact as Japan awaits August CPI", "description": "Japan's inflation data typically carries limited standalone weight on the yen and JGB yields when a Bank of Japan decision lands the same day, and today looks no different. Traders are more focused on the outcome of the BoJ meeting and Governor Ueda's press conference this afternoon than on the CPI print itself, given a rate hike is already close to fully priced by swap markets. A core reading in line with the 1.8% consensus would likely do little to alter that path, while a surprise miss or bea…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T20:41:45+00:00", "currencies": ["JPY"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.3, "ds_xau": -0.5, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bearish", "model_cls": -1, "model_score": -0.3815, "model_conf": 0.5746, "model_margin": 0.3424, "model_ms": 1.26, "model_h_label": "bearish", "model_h_cls": -1, "model_h_score": -0.7609, "model_h_conf": 0.8423, "kw_xau": -1.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "d39288f6e5c428493d5ada7b91dcf30afbfaa99099b0c5f20cb20c7b677b9240", "headline": "Nasdaq leads a broad Wall Street rally as Treasury yields fall", "description": "U.S. stocks closed sharply higher, with the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 leading the advance. The rally was broad enough to lift all five major indices, although small-cap stocks lagged behind their technology-heavy counterparts. Falling Treasury yields provided an important tailwind. The 10-year yield declined nearly 7 basis points, while the 30-year moved further below 5.00%. Lower yields reduce the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings, which tends to be especially supportive…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T20:15:59+00:00", "currencies": ["USD"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.6, "ds_xau": 0.5, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bearish", "model_cls": -1, "model_score": -0.5664, "model_conf": 0.734, "model_margin": 0.5664, "model_ms": 1.39, "model_h_label": "bearish", "model_h_cls": -1, "model_h_score": -0.3229, "model_h_conf": 0.6388, "kw_xau": 1.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "93130d2d6f6951b572942b59ce73b6f6c45d6ade1f4b9dca2c51495080b90a0c", "headline": "Economic and event calendar in Asia Friday, September 18, 2026 - BoJ and RBA", "description": "Plenty of big events to come during the Asian timezone today. I'll get previews posted of all of these separately, just a few brief notes for now. Japanese inflation data for August. We have already seen Augusy CPI data for the Tokyo area: Tokyo core CPI rose 1.8% y/y in August, beating forecasts of 1.7% and nearing the BOJ's 2% target, with the closely watched core-core measure hitting 2.0%, adding to the case for a September rate hike. I don't want to overplay the importance of this data from…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T20:22:11+00:00", "currencies": ["JPY", "AUD"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.0, "ds_xau": 0.0, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "neutral", "model_cls": 0, "model_score": 0.0626, "model_conf": 0.5715, "model_margin": 0.3259, "model_ms": 1.26, "model_h_label": "neutral", "model_h_cls": 0, "model_h_score": 0.0353, "model_h_conf": 0.7105, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "67fbdf1b7a01c7bc152e572ab6ad755ece47307177be275e59a69b0a61384d43", "headline": "Former Atlanta Fed President: The inflation portion of the Fed mandate is far more concerning", "description": "Historically supply shocks hit and resolve quickly but they're lingering longer and it takes time to work its way through, that can feed into expectations Said he was pleased that Warsh doubled down on Jackson Hole speech The number of families that are being stressed by prices has risen on a consistent basis If the Fed doesn't create an environment where people think prices are going to flatten then it's a problem Inflation expectations are solid until they aren't I don't think it's in our inte…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T15:14:12+00:00", "currencies": ["USD"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": true, "in_training": false, "archived_source": "llm", "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": -0.3, "ds_s": 0.4, "ds_xau": -0.6, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bullish", "model_cls": 1, "model_score": 0.3007, "model_conf": 0.4967, "model_margin": 0.1894, "model_ms": 1.28, "model_h_label": "bullish", "model_h_cls": 1, "model_h_score": 0.2746, "model_h_conf": 0.4258, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "a879744851cbb297eea4fceadc7b7dbb65d49e89ca9809b50941d645cb779eee", "headline": "The smallest hiking cycle the Fed has ever done is 137 basis points", "description": "Welcome to the new rate-hike cycle. The FOMC delivered on the market's expectation for a rate hike yesterday and moved the Fed funds range to 3.75-4.00% from 3.50-3.75%. A hawkish Q&A from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh left the market thinking there's an even chance of a second hike in October but there are still plenty of doves out there, who think inflation is transitory and will be quickly defeated. Part of the reason for that is that the starting point of this rate hiking cycle is relatively high…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T15:05:32+00:00", "currencies": ["USD"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": true, "in_training": false, "archived_source": "llm", "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": -0.4, "ds_s": 0.4, "ds_xau": -0.6, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "neutral", "model_cls": 0, "model_score": -0.081, "model_conf": 0.3855, "model_margin": 0.0377, "model_ms": 1.28, "model_h_label": "bullish", "model_h_cls": 1, "model_h_score": 0.2699, "model_h_conf": 0.5097, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "ce258f106e1baf48367106057674ef3b237060f140408d094279a06af1098231", "headline": "USDCAD breaks higher after the Fed. Can buyers hold the breakout? Or will sellers take back control?", "description": "The USDCAD has moved higher following the FOMC rate decision, breaking above a cluster of important technical levels. That has shifted more control to the buyers, but the next step is holding the breakout and working through resistance near the 1.4000 level. Before the decision, the price was trading between the 200-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 1.3888 and the 100-day moving average at 1.3939. The post-FOMC move carried the pair above the 100-day moving average, the 38.2% retracem…", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T14:47:06+00:00", "currencies": ["USD"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": true, "in_training": false, "archived_source": "llm", "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": 0.2, "ds_s": 0.3, "ds_xau": -0.4, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bullish", "model_cls": 1, "model_score": 0.4199, "model_conf": 0.5878, "model_margin": 0.3436, "model_ms": 1.35, "model_h_label": "bullish", "model_h_cls": 1, "model_h_score": 0.2853, "model_h_conf": 0.5322, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "538461a7d1deef97415564ba84a09119903a8ec81b8cf79b1d57e81cd703bb44", "headline": "BOE's Bailey: Decision on rates will get more difficult the longer the Iran conflict continues", "description": "Still early days on inflation risks from Iran war, so far it's quite subdued We have been working on QT plan since before Iran war He as asked about four hikes being priced in and said they did not discuss the prospect of hiking four times Not much to go on so far, typical Bailey. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T13:32:20+00:00", "currencies": ["GBP"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": true, "in_training": false, "archived_source": "llm", "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": -0.2, "ds_s": 0.2, "ds_xau": 0.3, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bullish", "model_cls": 1, "model_score": 0.2156, "model_conf": 0.4915, "model_margin": 0.2156, "model_ms": 1.11, "model_h_label": "bullish", "model_h_cls": 1, "model_h_score": 0.0383, "model_h_conf": 0.4346, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "7d2fdc930d42affbd891c666e9aed9222b806048956d396e56d515e999d21f93", "headline": "Canada August producer price index +1.3% m/m vs +0.6% prior", "description": "Prior was +0.6% Prices +13.5% y/y vs +12.4% prior Raw materials price index +3.1% m/m vs -2.1% prior Raw materials price index +22.8% y/y vs +18.2% prior Those are some real inflation pressures and help to explain why central banks are so worried. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T12:30:12+00:00", "currencies": ["CAD"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": true, "in_training": false, "archived_source": "llm", "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": 0.3, "ds_s": 0.2, "ds_xau": -0.2, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bullish", "model_cls": 1, "model_score": 0.2048, "model_conf": 0.4629, "model_margin": 0.1838, "model_ms": 1.1, "model_h_label": "bullish", "model_h_cls": 1, "model_h_score": 0.1312, "model_h_conf": 0.4224, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "42844c620fc0a3596d91d91bfb38a7c1572fbaa751f9efdda3079c1e845efb94", "headline": "Bank of Japan is expected to deliver a hawkish hike, pressured by rising inflation", "description": "The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy meeting will close a week packed with central bank decisions on Friday, with markets particularly interested in confirming expectations of a hawkish shift that has boosted a strong Japanese Yen (JPY) recovery in September.", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T22:00:00+00:00", "currencies": ["JPY"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.4, "ds_xau": -0.6, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bearish", "model_cls": -1, "model_score": -0.5653, "model_conf": 0.7231, "model_margin": 0.5653, "model_ms": 1.13, "model_h_label": "bearish", "model_h_cls": -1, "model_h_score": -0.6745, "model_h_conf": 0.8251, "kw_xau": -1.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "f39ee12091ce75055251e868e7ae484453a2a356394e26c533e53acef1040820", "headline": "EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Spinning tops warn bulls near 180.00", "description": "The EUR/JPY drops by about 0.08% on Thursday, forming back-to-back spinning tops near the 180.00 area, the top of a consolidation range capped to the downside by 178.00. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 179.02, below its opening price.", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T21:44:51+00:00", "currencies": ["EUR", "JPY"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.0, "ds_xau": 0.0, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bearish", "model_cls": -1, "model_score": -0.1725, "model_conf": 0.4701, "model_margin": 0.1725, "model_ms": 1.05, "model_h_label": "bullish", "model_h_cls": 1, "model_h_score": 0.429, "model_h_conf": 0.609, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "6bb774ba4084bc010183798e34eb676cb5ddddf2c0ab14756534c96727576d88", "headline": "US Dollar slips against the Japanese Yen before the Bank of Japan raises rates", "description": "USD/JPY trades near 156.00 after a session high at 156.32 and a low at 155.34, which leaves it three Yen above the September 8 low and four below the September 2 high. The Bank of Japan announces at 02:45 GMT on Friday and a quarter-point increase to 1.25% is priced at 100%.", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T20:57:07+00:00", "currencies": ["USD", "JPY"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.3, "ds_xau": -0.4, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bearish", "model_cls": -1, "model_score": -0.314, "model_conf": 0.5591, "model_margin": 0.314, "model_ms": 1.11, "model_h_label": "bearish", "model_h_cls": -1, "model_h_score": -0.4248, "model_h_conf": 0.6898, "kw_xau": 0.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "d8c1607ddbdddba921c948ed2e014e8956304830c274d93af1b7c50d581431bc", "headline": "British Pound slides after the Bank of England stays put", "description": "GBP/USD trades near 1.3350 on Thursday after a session low at 1.3336, its weakest since the end of July, and it has been under its 200-day average since Wednesday.", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T20:56:24+00:00", "currencies": ["GBP"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": -0.3, "ds_xau": 0.2, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bullish", "model_cls": 1, "model_score": 0.1146, "model_conf": 0.3859, "model_margin": 0.0432, "model_ms": 1.02, "model_h_label": "bullish", "model_h_cls": 1, "model_h_score": 0.045, "model_h_conf": 0.3696, "kw_xau": -1.0}
{"run_ts": "2026-09-17T22:41:28.064519+00:00", "hash": "ba789ffb3e816d09fa5823e9a4bfbe900e6969514e765d52494179e49a0c5c5c", "headline": "GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Evening star puts 207.00 back in play", "description": "GBP/JPY makes a U-turn and loses about 0.39% on Thursday as risk appetite improves, while traders await a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) later in Friday’s session. The cross-pair trades at 208.32 after reaching a high of 209.19.", "publisher": null, "published_at": "2026-09-17T20:47:09+00:00", "currencies": ["GBP", "JPY"], "mentions_gold": false, "seen_in_archive": false, "in_training": false, "archived_source": null, "archived_xau": null, "archived_s": null, "ds_s": 0.0, "ds_xau": 0.0, "ds_cached": true, "ds_batch_ms": 1267.299137000009, "ds_batch_size": 25, "model_label": "bearish", "model_cls": -1, "model_score": -0.3535, "model_conf": 0.6088, "model_margin": 0.3535, "model_ms": 1.11, "model_h_label": "neutral", "model_h_cls": 0, "model_h_score": 0.1684, "model_h_conf": 0.5675, "kw_xau": 0.0}
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