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Initial import: XAUUSD news sentiment models, evals, and data tooling

Browse Source 
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the
two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py)
with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the
golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27
results and progress notes.

Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not
tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py.
The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Harwinder Sekhon
2026-09-27 19:22:30 -04:00
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headline,category,expected_xau_sign,rationale
"Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky",hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish"
"Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year",hawkish_fed,-1,"more hikes = stronger dollar/yields"
"Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening",hawkish_fed,-1,"tightening expectations weigh on gold"
"Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy",hawkish_fed,-1,"hawkish guidance"
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,"outsized hike plus hawkish guidance"
"Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes",hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up"
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,"hawkish repricing"
"Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year",hawkish_fed,-1,"easing priced out"
"Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come",dovish_fed,1,"easing cycle is gold-bullish"
"Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target",dovish_fed,1,"cut guidance"
"FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing",dovish_fed,1,"dovish minutes"
"Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year",dovish_fed,1,"cut guidance"
"Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot",dovish_fed,1,"pivot odds up"
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,"easing priced in"
"Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters",dovish_fed,1,"global easing backdrop"
"Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy",dovish_fed,1,"QE is gold-bullish"
"Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data",strong_usd,-1,"strong dollar pressures gold"
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication"
"Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board",strong_usd,-1,"strong jobs lift dollar and yields"
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia",strong_usd,-1,"dollar strength"
"ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data",weak_usd,1,"weak dollar lifts gold"
"US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides",weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication"
"Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract",weak_usd,1,"weak data"
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,"slowdown is dovish"
"Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record",weak_usd,1,"dollar weakness"
"Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy",weak_usd,1,"cooling economy"
"US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low",weak_usd,1,"weak data"
"Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off",real_yields,-1,"rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost"
"10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut",real_yields,-1,"yield spike"
"Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets",real_yields,-1,"explicit opportunity-cost story"
"Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds",real_yields,1,"falling yields support gold"
"Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates",real_yields,1,"negative real yields are gold's best backdrop"
"Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year",real_yields,1,"falling yields"
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,"safe-haven bid"
"Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread",safe_haven,1,"crisis flight to safety"
"Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets",safe_haven,1,"explicit haven flow"
"Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default",safe_haven,1,"default shock"
"Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets",safe_haven,1,"geopolitical stress"
"Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic",safe_haven,1,"risk-off"
"Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears",safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid"
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,"extreme geopolitical stress"
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,"haven unwind"
"Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed",risk_on,-1,"risk-on drains haven demand"
"Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside",risk_on,-1,"risk-on"
"Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions",risk_on,-1,"risk-on"
"Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion",gold_direct,1,"direct demand"
"Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years",gold_direct,1,"investment inflows"
"China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month",gold_direct,1,"official-sector demand"
"Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens",gold_direct,1,"supply deficit"
"Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run",gold_direct,-1,"profit-taking pressure"
"Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate",gold_direct,-1,"outflows"
"Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls",gold_direct,-1,"physical demand soft"
"Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens",gold_direct,-1,"positioning unwind"
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,"dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish"
"Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish"
"Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates",negation_traps,-1,"fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out"
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,"disinflation opens door to cuts"
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish pushback phrased around negations"
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish hold with tightening bias"
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,"explicitly negated haven demand"
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,"less-bad data is dollar-positive"
"US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up",inverted_metrics,1,"weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish"
"US factory activity slumps to three-year low",inverted_metrics,1,"weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish"
"Consumer spending falls for third straight month",inverted_metrics,1,"weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish"
"Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020",inverted_metrics,1,"weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish"
"Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread",inverted_metrics,1,"higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish"
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,"higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish"
"Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Local elections see record turnout in several US states",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
1 headline category expected_xau_sign rationale
2 Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky hawkish_fed -1 higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish
3 Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year hawkish_fed -1 more hikes = stronger dollar/yields
4 Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening hawkish_fed -1 tightening expectations weigh on gold
5 Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy hawkish_fed -1 hawkish guidance
6 FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead hawkish_fed -1 outsized hike plus hawkish guidance
7 Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes hawkish_fed -1 cut hopes dashed, yields up
8 Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance hawkish_fed -1 hawkish repricing
9 Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year hawkish_fed -1 easing priced out
10 Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come dovish_fed 1 easing cycle is gold-bullish
11 Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target dovish_fed 1 cut guidance
12 FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing dovish_fed 1 dovish minutes
13 Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year dovish_fed 1 cut guidance
14 Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot dovish_fed 1 pivot odds up
15 Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle dovish_fed 1 easing priced in
16 Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters dovish_fed 1 global easing backdrop
17 Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy dovish_fed 1 QE is gold-bullish
18 Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data strong_usd -1 strong dollar pressures gold
19 US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations strong_usd -1 strong economy, hawkish implication
20 Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board strong_usd -1 strong jobs lift dollar and yields
21 US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength strong_usd -1 strong data
22 Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia strong_usd -1 dollar strength
23 ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand strong_usd -1 strong data
24 Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US strong_usd -1 strong data
25 Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data weak_usd 1 weak dollar lifts gold
26 US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides weak_usd 1 weak jobs, dovish implication
27 Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract weak_usd 1 weak data
28 US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears weak_usd 1 slowdown is dovish
29 Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record weak_usd 1 dollar weakness
30 Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy weak_usd 1 cooling economy
31 US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low weak_usd 1 weak data
32 Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off real_yields -1 rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost
33 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut real_yields -1 yield spike
34 Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets real_yields -1 explicit opportunity-cost story
35 Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds real_yields 1 falling yields support gold
36 Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates real_yields 1 negative real yields are gold's best backdrop
37 Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year real_yields 1 falling yields
38 Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety safe_haven 1 safe-haven bid
39 Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread safe_haven 1 crisis flight to safety
40 Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets safe_haven 1 explicit haven flow
41 Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default safe_haven 1 default shock
42 Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets safe_haven 1 geopolitical stress
43 Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic safe_haven 1 risk-off
44 Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears safe_haven 1 contagion, haven bid
45 Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens safe_haven 1 extreme geopolitical stress
46 Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades risk_on -1 haven unwind
47 Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed risk_on -1 risk-on drains haven demand
48 Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside risk_on -1 risk-on
49 Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions risk_on -1 risk-on
50 Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion gold_direct 1 direct demand
51 Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years gold_direct 1 investment inflows
52 China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month gold_direct 1 official-sector demand
53 Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens gold_direct 1 supply deficit
54 Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run gold_direct -1 profit-taking pressure
55 Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate gold_direct -1 outflows
56 Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls gold_direct -1 physical demand soft
57 Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens gold_direct -1 positioning unwind
58 Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon negation_traps 1 dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish
59 Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling negation_traps -1 hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish
60 Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates negation_traps -1 fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out
61 Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed negation_traps 1 disinflation opens door to cuts
62 Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature negation_traps -1 hawkish pushback phrased around negations
63 Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume negation_traps -1 hawkish hold with tightening bias
64 No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say negation_traps -1 explicitly negated haven demand
65 Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers negation_traps -1 less-bad data is dollar-positive
66 US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up inverted_metrics 1 weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish
67 US factory activity slumps to three-year low inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish
68 Consumer spending falls for third straight month inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish
69 Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 inverted_metrics 1 weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish
70 Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread inverted_metrics 1 higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish
71 US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 inverted_metrics 1 higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish
72 Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns distractors 0 irrelevant
73 New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend distractors 0 irrelevant
74 Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup distractors 0 irrelevant
75 Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast distractors 0 irrelevant
76 Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend distractors 0 irrelevant
77 Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe distractors 0 irrelevant
78 Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch distractors 0 irrelevant
79 Local elections see record turnout in several US states distractors 0 irrelevant