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Initial import: XAUUSD news sentiment models, evals, and data tooling

Browse Source 
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the
two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py)
with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the
golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27
results and progress notes.

Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not
tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py.
The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Harwinder Sekhon
2026-09-27 19:22:30 -04:00
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headline,category,exp,rationale,model_label,model_cls,model_score,model_conf,model_margin,model_cls_band,model_ms,kw_xau,kw_cls,ds_s,ds_xau,ds_cls,ds_cached
Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky,hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish",neutral,0,0.0904,0.4167,0.0798,0,3.79,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year,hawkish_fed,-1,more hikes = stronger dollar/yields,bearish,-1,-0.4814,0.6552,0.4814,-1,1.02,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening,hawkish_fed,-1,tightening expectations weigh on gold,bullish,1,0.2563,0.5806,0.2563,1,0.9,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy,hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish guidance,bullish,1,0.2228,0.4954,0.2228,1,0.89,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,outsized hike plus hawkish guidance,bullish,1,0.1416,0.5135,0.1416,0,0.86,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes,hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up",bearish,-1,-0.3577,0.6683,0.3577,-1,0.89,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish repricing,bearish,-1,-0.7191,0.8306,0.7191,-1,0.94,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year,hawkish_fed,-1,easing priced out,neutral,0,0.2487,0.4401,0.0357,1,0.86,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come,dovish_fed,1,easing cycle is gold-bullish,bearish,-1,-0.1208,0.4302,0.1208,0,0.85,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.2497,0.5899,0.2497,1,0.87,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing,dovish_fed,1,dovish minutes,bullish,1,0.2525,0.5119,0.2525,1,0.83,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.4653,0.6188,0.3911,1,0.83,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot,dovish_fed,1,pivot odds up,bullish,1,0.5022,0.6754,0.5022,1,0.84,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,easing priced in,bearish,-1,-0.1429,0.4917,0.1429,0,0.82,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters,dovish_fed,1,global easing backdrop,bullish,1,0.1851,0.5595,0.1851,1,0.82,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy,dovish_fed,1,QE is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.2589,0.5396,0.2589,1,0.85,0.0,0,-0.4,0.7,1,False
Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data,strong_usd,-1,strong dollar pressures gold,bullish,1,0.073,0.4838,0.073,0,0.85,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication",bullish,1,0.1629,0.5286,0.1629,1,0.85,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board,strong_usd,-1,strong jobs lift dollar and yields,bearish,-1,-0.2423,0.5696,0.2423,-1,0.86,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,strong data,bearish,-1,-0.0595,0.4566,0.0595,0,0.86,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia,strong_usd,-1,dollar strength,bullish,1,0.4212,0.6408,0.4212,1,0.84,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.1071,0.4217,0.1071,0,0.85,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.7355,0.8224,0.7317,1,0.85,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,False
Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data,weak_usd,1,weak dollar lifts gold,bearish,-1,-0.3126,0.5838,0.3126,-1,0.86,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides,weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication",bearish,-1,-0.0068,0.4805,0.0068,0,0.87,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,False
Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract,weak_usd,1,weak data,bearish,-1,-0.3367,0.6181,0.3367,-1,0.86,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.6,1,False
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,slowdown is dovish,bullish,1,0.2244,0.56,0.2244,1,0.92,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,False
Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record,weak_usd,1,dollar weakness,bullish,1,0.1422,0.5326,0.1422,0,0.86,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.5,1,False
Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy,weak_usd,1,cooling economy,bullish,1,0.2079,0.4338,0.0936,1,0.85,0.0,0,-0.4,0.4,1,False
US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low,weak_usd,1,weak data,bullish,1,0.3502,0.5463,0.2885,1,0.84,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,False
Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off,real_yields,-1,rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost,bearish,-1,-0.5952,0.7596,0.5952,-1,0.86,0.0,0,0.6,-0.8,-1,False
10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut,real_yields,-1,yield spike,bearish,-1,-0.6403,0.8008,0.6403,-1,0.87,1.0,1,0.6,-0.8,-1,False
Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets,real_yields,-1,explicit opportunity-cost story,bearish,-1,-0.1359,0.443,0.1359,0,0.86,0.0,0,0.5,-0.7,-1,False
Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds,real_yields,1,falling yields support gold,bearish,-1,-0.294,0.6085,0.294,-1,0.84,0.0,0,-0.5,0.6,1,False
Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates,real_yields,1,negative real yields are gold's best backdrop,bearish,-1,-0.3052,0.5599,0.3052,-1,0.85,0.0,0,-0.6,0.8,1,False
Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year,real_yields,1,falling yields,bearish,-1,-0.049,0.4416,0.049,0,0.86,1.0,1,-0.5,0.6,1,False
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,safe-haven bid,bullish,1,0.7083,0.7749,0.6164,1,0.85,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,False
Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread,safe_haven,1,crisis flight to safety,bullish,1,0.036,0.3923,0.036,0,0.84,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,False
Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets,safe_haven,1,explicit haven flow,bullish,1,0.3576,0.5705,0.354,1,0.86,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,False
Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default,safe_haven,1,default shock,bullish,1,0.3298,0.6221,0.3298,1,0.84,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,False
Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets,safe_haven,1,geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.1883,0.4891,0.1883,1,0.84,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,False
Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic,safe_haven,1,risk-off,bullish,1,0.326,0.5681,0.326,1,0.85,-1.0,-1,-0.8,0.9,1,False
Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears,safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid",bullish,1,0.425,0.6048,0.3894,1,0.85,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,False
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,extreme geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.3099,0.5248,0.2647,1,0.84,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,False
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,haven unwind,bullish,1,0.3404,0.5448,0.2941,1,0.83,0.0,0,0.6,-0.7,-1,False
Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed,risk_on,-1,risk-on drains haven demand,bullish,1,0.1254,0.4559,0.1254,0,0.81,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,False
Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bearish,-1,-0.3561,0.6452,0.3561,-1,0.82,0.0,0,0.6,-0.6,-1,False
Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.2155,0.5437,0.2155,1,1.42,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,False
Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion,gold_direct,1,direct demand,bullish,1,0.4925,0.7262,0.4925,1,0.85,1.0,1,0.8,0.9,1,False
Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years,gold_direct,1,investment inflows,bullish,1,0.0726,0.3818,0.0726,0,0.85,0.0,0,0.7,0.8,1,False
China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month,gold_direct,1,official-sector demand,bullish,1,0.3553,0.6092,0.3553,1,0.86,0.0,0,0.6,0.7,1,False
Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens,gold_direct,1,supply deficit,bullish,1,0.2704,0.5196,0.2704,1,0.82,-1.0,-1,0.5,0.6,1,False
Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run,gold_direct,-1,profit-taking pressure,bearish,-1,-0.8912,0.9406,0.8912,-1,0.85,-1.0,-1,-0.6,-0.8,-1,False
Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate,gold_direct,-1,outflows,bearish,-1,-0.9595,0.9726,0.9582,-1,0.86,-1.0,-1,-0.7,-0.9,-1,False
Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls,gold_direct,-1,physical demand soft,bearish,-1,-0.776,0.8712,0.776,-1,0.86,-1.0,-1,-0.4,-0.5,-1,False
Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens,gold_direct,-1,positioning unwind,bearish,-1,-0.6148,0.7935,0.6148,-1,0.87,1.0,1,-0.5,-0.6,-1,False
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish,bearish,-1,-0.7359,0.8528,0.7359,-1,0.87,-1.0,-1,0.3,0.5,1,False
Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling,negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.2903,0.5668,0.2903,1,0.85,1.0,1,-0.2,-0.3,-1,False
Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates,negation_traps,-1,fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out,bullish,1,0.2581,0.5706,0.2581,1,0.84,0.0,0,0.4,-0.4,-1,False
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,disinflation opens door to cuts,bearish,-1,-0.184,0.4807,0.184,-1,0.82,1.0,1,0.3,0.4,1,False
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,hawkish pushback phrased around negations,bullish,1,0.4931,0.6207,0.3691,1,0.84,0.0,0,-0.4,-0.5,-1,False
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold with tightening bias,bullish,1,0.3823,0.5919,0.3823,1,0.85,-1.0,-1,-0.3,-0.4,-1,False
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,explicitly negated haven demand,bullish,1,0.5646,0.6494,0.3835,1,0.86,0.0,0,-0.3,-0.4,-1,False
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,less-bad data is dollar-positive,bullish,1,0.2453,0.5819,0.2453,1,0.84,0.0,0,0.3,-0.4,-1,False
US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up,inverted_metrics,1,weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish,bullish,1,0.0409,0.4625,0.0409,0,0.84,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,False
US factory activity slumps to three-year low,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish,neutral,0,-0.077,0.5058,0.2201,0,0.82,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,False
Consumer spending falls for third straight month,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish,bearish,-1,-0.6046,0.7367,0.6046,-1,0.83,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,False
Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020,inverted_metrics,1,weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish,bearish,-1,-0.063,0.4262,0.063,0,0.84,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,False
Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread,inverted_metrics,1,higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.1541,0.4806,0.1541,1,0.83,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,False
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.3553,0.6196,0.3553,1,0.87,0.0,0,-0.6,0.6,1,False
Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns,distractors,0,irrelevant,bearish,-1,-0.4619,0.649,0.4619,-1,0.82,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,False
New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.0073,0.387,0.0073,0,0.84,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,False
Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup,distractors,0,irrelevant,bearish,-1,-0.4632,0.5858,0.2943,-1,0.83,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,False
Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.1195,0.3795,0.0191,0,0.83,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,False
Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.1291,0.5284,0.2281,0,0.83,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,False
Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.1086,0.4033,0.1013,0,0.84,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,False
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.2784,0.5894,0.2784,1,0.85,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,False
Local elections see record turnout in several US states,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.4703,0.6488,0.4703,1,0.84,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,False
1 headline category exp rationale model_label model_cls model_score model_conf model_margin model_cls_band model_ms kw_xau kw_cls ds_s ds_xau ds_cls ds_cached
2 Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky hawkish_fed -1 higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish neutral 0 0.0904 0.4167 0.0798 0 3.79 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
3 Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year hawkish_fed -1 more hikes = stronger dollar/yields bearish -1 -0.4814 0.6552 0.4814 -1 1.02 -1.0 -1 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
4 Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening hawkish_fed -1 tightening expectations weigh on gold bullish 1 0.2563 0.5806 0.2563 1 0.9 -1.0 -1 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
5 Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy hawkish_fed -1 hawkish guidance bullish 1 0.2228 0.4954 0.2228 1 0.89 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
6 FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead hawkish_fed -1 outsized hike plus hawkish guidance bullish 1 0.1416 0.5135 0.1416 0 0.86 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
7 Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes hawkish_fed -1 cut hopes dashed, yields up bearish -1 -0.3577 0.6683 0.3577 -1 0.89 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
8 Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance hawkish_fed -1 hawkish repricing bearish -1 -0.7191 0.8306 0.7191 -1 0.94 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
9 Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year hawkish_fed -1 easing priced out neutral 0 0.2487 0.4401 0.0357 1 0.86 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
10 Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come dovish_fed 1 easing cycle is gold-bullish bearish -1 -0.1208 0.4302 0.1208 0 0.85 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
11 Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target dovish_fed 1 cut guidance bullish 1 0.2497 0.5899 0.2497 1 0.87 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
12 FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing dovish_fed 1 dovish minutes bullish 1 0.2525 0.5119 0.2525 1 0.83 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
13 Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year dovish_fed 1 cut guidance bullish 1 0.4653 0.6188 0.3911 1 0.83 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
14 Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot dovish_fed 1 pivot odds up bullish 1 0.5022 0.6754 0.5022 1 0.84 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
15 Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle dovish_fed 1 easing priced in bearish -1 -0.1429 0.4917 0.1429 0 0.82 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
16 Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters dovish_fed 1 global easing backdrop bullish 1 0.1851 0.5595 0.1851 1 0.82 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
17 Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy dovish_fed 1 QE is gold-bullish bullish 1 0.2589 0.5396 0.2589 1 0.85 0.0 0 -0.4 0.7 1 False
18 Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data strong_usd -1 strong dollar pressures gold bullish 1 0.073 0.4838 0.073 0 0.85 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
19 US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations strong_usd -1 strong economy, hawkish implication bullish 1 0.1629 0.5286 0.1629 1 0.85 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
20 Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board strong_usd -1 strong jobs lift dollar and yields bearish -1 -0.2423 0.5696 0.2423 -1 0.86 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
21 US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength strong_usd -1 strong data bearish -1 -0.0595 0.4566 0.0595 0 0.86 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
22 Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia strong_usd -1 dollar strength bullish 1 0.4212 0.6408 0.4212 1 0.84 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
23 ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand strong_usd -1 strong data bullish 1 0.1071 0.4217 0.1071 0 0.85 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
24 Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US strong_usd -1 strong data bullish 1 0.7355 0.8224 0.7317 1 0.85 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 False
25 Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data weak_usd 1 weak dollar lifts gold bearish -1 -0.3126 0.5838 0.3126 -1 0.86 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
26 US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides weak_usd 1 weak jobs, dovish implication bearish -1 -0.0068 0.4805 0.0068 0 0.87 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.7 1 False
27 Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract weak_usd 1 weak data bearish -1 -0.3367 0.6181 0.3367 -1 0.86 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.6 1 False
28 US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears weak_usd 1 slowdown is dovish bullish 1 0.2244 0.56 0.2244 1 0.92 0.0 0 -0.5 0.5 1 False
29 Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record weak_usd 1 dollar weakness bullish 1 0.1422 0.5326 0.1422 0 0.86 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.5 1 False
30 Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy weak_usd 1 cooling economy bullish 1 0.2079 0.4338 0.0936 1 0.85 0.0 0 -0.4 0.4 1 False
31 US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low weak_usd 1 weak data bullish 1 0.3502 0.5463 0.2885 1 0.84 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 False
32 Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off real_yields -1 rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost bearish -1 -0.5952 0.7596 0.5952 -1 0.86 0.0 0 0.6 -0.8 -1 False
33 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut real_yields -1 yield spike bearish -1 -0.6403 0.8008 0.6403 -1 0.87 1.0 1 0.6 -0.8 -1 False
34 Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets real_yields -1 explicit opportunity-cost story bearish -1 -0.1359 0.443 0.1359 0 0.86 0.0 0 0.5 -0.7 -1 False
35 Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds real_yields 1 falling yields support gold bearish -1 -0.294 0.6085 0.294 -1 0.84 0.0 0 -0.5 0.6 1 False
36 Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates real_yields 1 negative real yields are gold's best backdrop bearish -1 -0.3052 0.5599 0.3052 -1 0.85 0.0 0 -0.6 0.8 1 False
37 Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year real_yields 1 falling yields bearish -1 -0.049 0.4416 0.049 0 0.86 1.0 1 -0.5 0.6 1 False
38 Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety safe_haven 1 safe-haven bid bullish 1 0.7083 0.7749 0.6164 1 0.85 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 False
39 Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread safe_haven 1 crisis flight to safety bullish 1 0.036 0.3923 0.036 0 0.84 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 False
40 Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets safe_haven 1 explicit haven flow bullish 1 0.3576 0.5705 0.354 1 0.86 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 False
41 Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default safe_haven 1 default shock bullish 1 0.3298 0.6221 0.3298 1 0.84 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 False
42 Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets safe_haven 1 geopolitical stress bullish 1 0.1883 0.4891 0.1883 1 0.84 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 False
43 Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic safe_haven 1 risk-off bullish 1 0.326 0.5681 0.326 1 0.85 -1.0 -1 -0.8 0.9 1 False
44 Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears safe_haven 1 contagion, haven bid bullish 1 0.425 0.6048 0.3894 1 0.85 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 False
45 Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens safe_haven 1 extreme geopolitical stress bullish 1 0.3099 0.5248 0.2647 1 0.84 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 False
46 Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades risk_on -1 haven unwind bullish 1 0.3404 0.5448 0.2941 1 0.83 0.0 0 0.6 -0.7 -1 False
47 Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed risk_on -1 risk-on drains haven demand bullish 1 0.1254 0.4559 0.1254 0 0.81 1.0 1 0.7 -0.7 -1 False
48 Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside risk_on -1 risk-on bearish -1 -0.3561 0.6452 0.3561 -1 0.82 0.0 0 0.6 -0.6 -1 False
49 Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions risk_on -1 risk-on bullish 1 0.2155 0.5437 0.2155 1 1.42 1.0 1 0.7 -0.7 -1 False
50 Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion gold_direct 1 direct demand bullish 1 0.4925 0.7262 0.4925 1 0.85 1.0 1 0.8 0.9 1 False
51 Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years gold_direct 1 investment inflows bullish 1 0.0726 0.3818 0.0726 0 0.85 0.0 0 0.7 0.8 1 False
52 China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month gold_direct 1 official-sector demand bullish 1 0.3553 0.6092 0.3553 1 0.86 0.0 0 0.6 0.7 1 False
53 Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens gold_direct 1 supply deficit bullish 1 0.2704 0.5196 0.2704 1 0.82 -1.0 -1 0.5 0.6 1 False
54 Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run gold_direct -1 profit-taking pressure bearish -1 -0.8912 0.9406 0.8912 -1 0.85 -1.0 -1 -0.6 -0.8 -1 False
55 Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate gold_direct -1 outflows bearish -1 -0.9595 0.9726 0.9582 -1 0.86 -1.0 -1 -0.7 -0.9 -1 False
56 Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls gold_direct -1 physical demand soft bearish -1 -0.776 0.8712 0.776 -1 0.86 -1.0 -1 -0.4 -0.5 -1 False
57 Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens gold_direct -1 positioning unwind bearish -1 -0.6148 0.7935 0.6148 -1 0.87 1.0 1 -0.5 -0.6 -1 False
58 Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon negation_traps 1 dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish bearish -1 -0.7359 0.8528 0.7359 -1 0.87 -1.0 -1 0.3 0.5 1 False
59 Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling negation_traps -1 hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish bullish 1 0.2903 0.5668 0.2903 1 0.85 1.0 1 -0.2 -0.3 -1 False
60 Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates negation_traps -1 fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out bullish 1 0.2581 0.5706 0.2581 1 0.84 0.0 0 0.4 -0.4 -1 False
61 Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed negation_traps 1 disinflation opens door to cuts bearish -1 -0.184 0.4807 0.184 -1 0.82 1.0 1 0.3 0.4 1 False
62 Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature negation_traps -1 hawkish pushback phrased around negations bullish 1 0.4931 0.6207 0.3691 1 0.84 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.5 -1 False
63 Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume negation_traps -1 hawkish hold with tightening bias bullish 1 0.3823 0.5919 0.3823 1 0.85 -1.0 -1 -0.3 -0.4 -1 False
64 No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say negation_traps -1 explicitly negated haven demand bullish 1 0.5646 0.6494 0.3835 1 0.86 0.0 0 -0.3 -0.4 -1 False
65 Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers negation_traps -1 less-bad data is dollar-positive bullish 1 0.2453 0.5819 0.2453 1 0.84 0.0 0 0.3 -0.4 -1 False
66 US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up inverted_metrics 1 weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish bullish 1 0.0409 0.4625 0.0409 0 0.84 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 False
67 US factory activity slumps to three-year low inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish neutral 0 -0.077 0.5058 0.2201 0 0.82 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 False
68 Consumer spending falls for third straight month inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish bearish -1 -0.6046 0.7367 0.6046 -1 0.83 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 False
69 Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 inverted_metrics 1 weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish bearish -1 -0.063 0.4262 0.063 0 0.84 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 False
70 Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread inverted_metrics 1 higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish bullish 1 0.1541 0.4806 0.1541 1 0.83 0.0 0 -0.5 0.5 1 False
71 US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 inverted_metrics 1 higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish bullish 1 0.3553 0.6196 0.3553 1 0.87 0.0 0 -0.6 0.6 1 False
72 Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns distractors 0 irrelevant bearish -1 -0.4619 0.649 0.4619 -1 0.82 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 False
73 New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.0073 0.387 0.0073 0 0.84 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 False
74 Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup distractors 0 irrelevant bearish -1 -0.4632 0.5858 0.2943 -1 0.83 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 False
75 Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.1195 0.3795 0.0191 0 0.83 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 False
76 Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.1291 0.5284 0.2281 0 0.83 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 False
77 Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.1086 0.4033 0.1013 0 0.84 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 False
78 Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.2784 0.5894 0.2784 1 0.85 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 False
79 Local elections see record turnout in several US states distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.4703 0.6488 0.4703 1 0.84 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 False