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Initial import: XAUUSD news sentiment models, evals, and data tooling

Browse Source 
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the
two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py)
with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the
golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27
results and progress notes.

Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not
tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py.
The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Harwinder Sekhon
2026-09-27 19:22:30 -04:00
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headline,category,exp,rationale,model_label,model_cls,model_score,model_conf,model_margin,model_cls_band,model_ms,kw_xau,kw_cls,ds_s,ds_xau,ds_cls,ds_cached
Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky,hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish",bullish,1,0.0293,0.3548,0.0293,0,4.24,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year,hawkish_fed,-1,more hikes = stronger dollar/yields,bearish,-1,-0.5594,0.7177,0.5594,-1,1.09,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening,hawkish_fed,-1,tightening expectations weigh on gold,bearish,-1,-0.3272,0.6145,0.3272,-1,1.05,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy,hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.0244,0.3638,0.0244,0,1.01,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,outsized hike plus hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.0891,0.4872,0.0891,0,0.97,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes,hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up",bearish,-1,-0.0985,0.5389,0.0985,0,0.95,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish repricing,bearish,-1,-0.6549,0.8028,0.6549,-1,0.98,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year,hawkish_fed,-1,easing priced out,neutral,0,0.2728,0.4792,0.0824,1,0.96,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come,dovish_fed,1,easing cycle is gold-bullish,bearish,-1,-0.1628,0.4502,0.1628,-1,0.93,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.4787,0.7139,0.4787,1,0.96,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing,dovish_fed,1,dovish minutes,bullish,1,0.5081,0.6626,0.4796,1,0.93,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.3146,0.5496,0.3146,1,0.95,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot,dovish_fed,1,pivot odds up,bullish,1,0.4279,0.6305,0.4279,1,0.94,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,easing priced in,bearish,-1,-0.0349,0.4442,0.0349,0,0.92,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters,dovish_fed,1,global easing backdrop,bullish,1,0.4126,0.6835,0.4126,1,0.92,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy,dovish_fed,1,QE is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.0959,0.4681,0.0959,0,0.91,0.0,0,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data,strong_usd,-1,strong dollar pressures gold,bullish,1,0.2104,0.5541,0.2104,1,0.94,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication",bearish,-1,-0.0686,0.4594,0.0686,0,0.91,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board,strong_usd,-1,strong jobs lift dollar and yields,bearish,-1,-0.2953,0.5963,0.2953,-1,0.91,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,strong data,bearish,-1,-0.246,0.5551,0.246,-1,0.92,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia,strong_usd,-1,dollar strength,bullish,1,0.5932,0.7221,0.5732,1,0.89,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.1835,0.5068,0.1835,1,0.91,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.7448,0.826,0.7333,1,1.0,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data,weak_usd,1,weak dollar lifts gold,bearish,-1,-0.2857,0.5681,0.2857,-1,0.93,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides,weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication",bearish,-1,-0.1659,0.5581,0.1659,-1,0.95,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract,weak_usd,1,weak data,bearish,-1,-0.3048,0.5966,0.3048,-1,0.92,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.6,1,True
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,slowdown is dovish,bullish,1,0.0185,0.4794,0.0185,0,0.96,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record,weak_usd,1,dollar weakness,bearish,-1,-0.0504,0.4835,0.0504,0,0.92,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.5,1,True
Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy,weak_usd,1,cooling economy,bullish,1,0.0981,0.3678,0.0052,0,0.91,0.0,0,-0.4,0.4,1,True
US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low,weak_usd,1,weak data,bullish,1,0.1319,0.4195,0.1265,0,0.9,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off,real_yields,-1,rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost,bearish,-1,-0.7578,0.8591,0.7578,-1,0.97,0.0,0,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut,real_yields,-1,yield spike,bearish,-1,-0.5609,0.7567,0.5609,-1,0.99,1.0,1,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets,real_yields,-1,explicit opportunity-cost story,bearish,-1,-0.0605,0.4171,0.0605,0,0.96,0.0,0,0.5,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds,real_yields,1,falling yields support gold,bearish,-1,-0.0856,0.5108,0.0856,0,0.93,0.0,0,-0.5,0.6,1,True
Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates,real_yields,1,negative real yields are gold's best backdrop,bearish,-1,-0.0966,0.4614,0.0966,0,0.93,0.0,0,-0.6,0.8,1,True
Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year,real_yields,1,falling yields,bearish,-1,-0.1714,0.4983,0.1714,-1,0.91,1.0,1,-0.5,0.6,1,True
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,safe-haven bid,bullish,1,0.5318,0.6625,0.4556,1,0.91,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread,safe_haven,1,crisis flight to safety,bullish,1,0.3584,0.6017,0.3584,1,0.9,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets,safe_haven,1,explicit haven flow,bullish,1,0.5457,0.6807,0.4963,1,0.9,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default,safe_haven,1,default shock,bullish,1,0.4963,0.7231,0.4963,1,0.91,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets,safe_haven,1,geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.1603,0.4704,0.1603,1,0.91,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic,safe_haven,1,risk-off,bullish,1,0.2519,0.5683,0.2519,1,0.9,-1.0,-1,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears,safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid",bullish,1,0.4461,0.6175,0.4064,1,0.93,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,extreme geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.2607,0.5158,0.2607,1,1.01,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,haven unwind,bullish,1,0.5874,0.7122,0.5492,1,0.93,0.0,0,0.6,-0.7,-1,True
Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed,risk_on,-1,risk-on drains haven demand,bullish,1,0.2875,0.5576,0.2875,1,0.91,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.1972,0.5694,0.1972,1,0.91,0.0,0,0.6,-0.6,-1,True
Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.2581,0.5763,0.2581,1,0.92,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion,gold_direct,1,direct demand,bullish,1,0.8392,0.9116,0.8392,1,0.92,1.0,1,0.8,0.9,1,True
Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years,gold_direct,1,investment inflows,bullish,1,0.0021,0.3525,0.0021,0,0.91,0.0,0,0.7,0.8,1,True
China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month,gold_direct,1,official-sector demand,bullish,1,0.5608,0.7467,0.5608,1,0.93,0.0,0,0.6,0.7,1,True
Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens,gold_direct,1,supply deficit,bullish,1,0.2594,0.5233,0.2594,1,0.93,-1.0,-1,0.5,0.6,1,True
Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run,gold_direct,-1,profit-taking pressure,bearish,-1,-0.9082,0.9502,0.9082,-1,0.94,-1.0,-1,-0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate,gold_direct,-1,outflows,bearish,-1,-0.9819,0.9879,0.9817,-1,0.96,-1.0,-1,-0.7,-0.9,-1,True
Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls,gold_direct,-1,physical demand soft,bearish,-1,-0.9023,0.9472,0.9023,-1,0.97,-1.0,-1,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens,gold_direct,-1,positioning unwind,bearish,-1,-0.6932,0.8377,0.6932,-1,0.96,1.0,1,-0.5,-0.6,-1,True
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish,bearish,-1,-0.7771,0.8766,0.7771,-1,0.93,-1.0,-1,0.3,0.5,1,True
Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling,negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.2181,0.537,0.2181,1,0.97,1.0,1,-0.2,-0.3,-1,True
Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates,negation_traps,-1,fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out,bullish,1,0.236,0.5611,0.236,1,0.92,0.0,0,0.4,-0.4,-1,True
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,disinflation opens door to cuts,bearish,-1,-0.187,0.5027,0.187,-1,0.94,1.0,1,0.3,0.4,1,True
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,hawkish pushback phrased around negations,bullish,1,0.5611,0.672,0.455,1,0.94,0.0,0,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold with tightening bias,bullish,1,0.3147,0.589,0.3147,1,1.01,-1.0,-1,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,explicitly negated haven demand,bullish,1,0.6518,0.727,0.5293,1,0.98,0.0,0,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,less-bad data is dollar-positive,bullish,1,0.3811,0.6612,0.3811,1,0.88,0.0,0,0.3,-0.4,-1,True
US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up,inverted_metrics,1,weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish,bullish,1,0.4546,0.6868,0.4546,1,0.9,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
US factory activity slumps to three-year low,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish,bearish,-1,-0.2737,0.4324,0.0234,-1,0.96,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Consumer spending falls for third straight month,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish,bearish,-1,-0.609,0.7477,0.609,-1,0.88,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020,inverted_metrics,1,weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish,bearish,-1,-0.3926,0.6225,0.3926,-1,0.86,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread,inverted_metrics,1,higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.1372,0.5033,0.1372,0,0.87,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.261,0.5912,0.261,1,0.91,0.0,0,-0.6,0.6,1,True
Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns,distractors,0,irrelevant,bearish,-1,-0.522,0.692,0.522,-1,0.91,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.4828,0.6731,0.4828,1,0.91,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup,distractors,0,irrelevant,bearish,-1,-0.0516,0.3947,0.0516,0,0.87,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.4698,0.6111,0.3635,1,0.89,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.285,0.4287,0.0012,1,0.87,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe,distractors,0,irrelevant,bearish,-1,-0.0721,0.387,0.0721,0,0.88,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.3981,0.6574,0.3981,1,0.89,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Local elections see record turnout in several US states,distractors,0,irrelevant,bullish,1,0.3854,0.573,0.3336,1,0.87,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
1 headline category exp rationale model_label model_cls model_score model_conf model_margin model_cls_band model_ms kw_xau kw_cls ds_s ds_xau ds_cls ds_cached
2 Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky hawkish_fed -1 higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish bullish 1 0.0293 0.3548 0.0293 0 4.24 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
3 Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year hawkish_fed -1 more hikes = stronger dollar/yields bearish -1 -0.5594 0.7177 0.5594 -1 1.09 -1.0 -1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
4 Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening hawkish_fed -1 tightening expectations weigh on gold bearish -1 -0.3272 0.6145 0.3272 -1 1.05 -1.0 -1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
5 Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy hawkish_fed -1 hawkish guidance bearish -1 -0.0244 0.3638 0.0244 0 1.01 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
6 FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead hawkish_fed -1 outsized hike plus hawkish guidance bearish -1 -0.0891 0.4872 0.0891 0 0.97 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
7 Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes hawkish_fed -1 cut hopes dashed, yields up bearish -1 -0.0985 0.5389 0.0985 0 0.95 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
8 Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance hawkish_fed -1 hawkish repricing bearish -1 -0.6549 0.8028 0.6549 -1 0.98 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
9 Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year hawkish_fed -1 easing priced out neutral 0 0.2728 0.4792 0.0824 1 0.96 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
10 Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come dovish_fed 1 easing cycle is gold-bullish bearish -1 -0.1628 0.4502 0.1628 -1 0.93 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
11 Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target dovish_fed 1 cut guidance bullish 1 0.4787 0.7139 0.4787 1 0.96 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
12 FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing dovish_fed 1 dovish minutes bullish 1 0.5081 0.6626 0.4796 1 0.93 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
13 Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year dovish_fed 1 cut guidance bullish 1 0.3146 0.5496 0.3146 1 0.95 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
14 Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot dovish_fed 1 pivot odds up bullish 1 0.4279 0.6305 0.4279 1 0.94 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
15 Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle dovish_fed 1 easing priced in bearish -1 -0.0349 0.4442 0.0349 0 0.92 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
16 Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters dovish_fed 1 global easing backdrop bullish 1 0.4126 0.6835 0.4126 1 0.92 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
17 Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy dovish_fed 1 QE is gold-bullish bullish 1 0.0959 0.4681 0.0959 0 0.91 0.0 0 -0.4 0.7 1 True
18 Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data strong_usd -1 strong dollar pressures gold bullish 1 0.2104 0.5541 0.2104 1 0.94 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
19 US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations strong_usd -1 strong economy, hawkish implication bearish -1 -0.0686 0.4594 0.0686 0 0.91 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
20 Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board strong_usd -1 strong jobs lift dollar and yields bearish -1 -0.2953 0.5963 0.2953 -1 0.91 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
21 US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength strong_usd -1 strong data bearish -1 -0.246 0.5551 0.246 -1 0.92 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
22 Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia strong_usd -1 dollar strength bullish 1 0.5932 0.7221 0.5732 1 0.89 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
23 ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand strong_usd -1 strong data bullish 1 0.1835 0.5068 0.1835 1 0.91 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
24 Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US strong_usd -1 strong data bullish 1 0.7448 0.826 0.7333 1 1.0 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
25 Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data weak_usd 1 weak dollar lifts gold bearish -1 -0.2857 0.5681 0.2857 -1 0.93 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
26 US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides weak_usd 1 weak jobs, dovish implication bearish -1 -0.1659 0.5581 0.1659 -1 0.95 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
27 Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract weak_usd 1 weak data bearish -1 -0.3048 0.5966 0.3048 -1 0.92 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.6 1 True
28 US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears weak_usd 1 slowdown is dovish bullish 1 0.0185 0.4794 0.0185 0 0.96 0.0 0 -0.5 0.5 1 True
29 Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record weak_usd 1 dollar weakness bearish -1 -0.0504 0.4835 0.0504 0 0.92 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.5 1 True
30 Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy weak_usd 1 cooling economy bullish 1 0.0981 0.3678 0.0052 0 0.91 0.0 0 -0.4 0.4 1 True
31 US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low weak_usd 1 weak data bullish 1 0.1319 0.4195 0.1265 0 0.9 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
32 Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off real_yields -1 rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost bearish -1 -0.7578 0.8591 0.7578 -1 0.97 0.0 0 0.6 -0.8 -1 True
33 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut real_yields -1 yield spike bearish -1 -0.5609 0.7567 0.5609 -1 0.99 1.0 1 0.6 -0.8 -1 True
34 Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets real_yields -1 explicit opportunity-cost story bearish -1 -0.0605 0.4171 0.0605 0 0.96 0.0 0 0.5 -0.7 -1 True
35 Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds real_yields 1 falling yields support gold bearish -1 -0.0856 0.5108 0.0856 0 0.93 0.0 0 -0.5 0.6 1 True
36 Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates real_yields 1 negative real yields are gold's best backdrop bearish -1 -0.0966 0.4614 0.0966 0 0.93 0.0 0 -0.6 0.8 1 True
37 Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year real_yields 1 falling yields bearish -1 -0.1714 0.4983 0.1714 -1 0.91 1.0 1 -0.5 0.6 1 True
38 Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety safe_haven 1 safe-haven bid bullish 1 0.5318 0.6625 0.4556 1 0.91 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
39 Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread safe_haven 1 crisis flight to safety bullish 1 0.3584 0.6017 0.3584 1 0.9 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
40 Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets safe_haven 1 explicit haven flow bullish 1 0.5457 0.6807 0.4963 1 0.9 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
41 Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default safe_haven 1 default shock bullish 1 0.4963 0.7231 0.4963 1 0.91 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
42 Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets safe_haven 1 geopolitical stress bullish 1 0.1603 0.4704 0.1603 1 0.91 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
43 Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic safe_haven 1 risk-off bullish 1 0.2519 0.5683 0.2519 1 0.9 -1.0 -1 -0.8 0.9 1 True
44 Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears safe_haven 1 contagion, haven bid bullish 1 0.4461 0.6175 0.4064 1 0.93 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
45 Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens safe_haven 1 extreme geopolitical stress bullish 1 0.2607 0.5158 0.2607 1 1.01 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
46 Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades risk_on -1 haven unwind bullish 1 0.5874 0.7122 0.5492 1 0.93 0.0 0 0.6 -0.7 -1 True
47 Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed risk_on -1 risk-on drains haven demand bullish 1 0.2875 0.5576 0.2875 1 0.91 1.0 1 0.7 -0.7 -1 True
48 Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside risk_on -1 risk-on bullish 1 0.1972 0.5694 0.1972 1 0.91 0.0 0 0.6 -0.6 -1 True
49 Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions risk_on -1 risk-on bullish 1 0.2581 0.5763 0.2581 1 0.92 1.0 1 0.7 -0.7 -1 True
50 Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion gold_direct 1 direct demand bullish 1 0.8392 0.9116 0.8392 1 0.92 1.0 1 0.8 0.9 1 True
51 Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years gold_direct 1 investment inflows bullish 1 0.0021 0.3525 0.0021 0 0.91 0.0 0 0.7 0.8 1 True
52 China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month gold_direct 1 official-sector demand bullish 1 0.5608 0.7467 0.5608 1 0.93 0.0 0 0.6 0.7 1 True
53 Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens gold_direct 1 supply deficit bullish 1 0.2594 0.5233 0.2594 1 0.93 -1.0 -1 0.5 0.6 1 True
54 Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run gold_direct -1 profit-taking pressure bearish -1 -0.9082 0.9502 0.9082 -1 0.94 -1.0 -1 -0.6 -0.8 -1 True
55 Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate gold_direct -1 outflows bearish -1 -0.9819 0.9879 0.9817 -1 0.96 -1.0 -1 -0.7 -0.9 -1 True
56 Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls gold_direct -1 physical demand soft bearish -1 -0.9023 0.9472 0.9023 -1 0.97 -1.0 -1 -0.4 -0.5 -1 True
57 Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens gold_direct -1 positioning unwind bearish -1 -0.6932 0.8377 0.6932 -1 0.96 1.0 1 -0.5 -0.6 -1 True
58 Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon negation_traps 1 dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish bearish -1 -0.7771 0.8766 0.7771 -1 0.93 -1.0 -1 0.3 0.5 1 True
59 Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling negation_traps -1 hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish bullish 1 0.2181 0.537 0.2181 1 0.97 1.0 1 -0.2 -0.3 -1 True
60 Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates negation_traps -1 fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out bullish 1 0.236 0.5611 0.236 1 0.92 0.0 0 0.4 -0.4 -1 True
61 Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed negation_traps 1 disinflation opens door to cuts bearish -1 -0.187 0.5027 0.187 -1 0.94 1.0 1 0.3 0.4 1 True
62 Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature negation_traps -1 hawkish pushback phrased around negations bullish 1 0.5611 0.672 0.455 1 0.94 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.5 -1 True
63 Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume negation_traps -1 hawkish hold with tightening bias bullish 1 0.3147 0.589 0.3147 1 1.01 -1.0 -1 -0.3 -0.4 -1 True
64 No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say negation_traps -1 explicitly negated haven demand bullish 1 0.6518 0.727 0.5293 1 0.98 0.0 0 -0.3 -0.4 -1 True
65 Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers negation_traps -1 less-bad data is dollar-positive bullish 1 0.3811 0.6612 0.3811 1 0.88 0.0 0 0.3 -0.4 -1 True
66 US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up inverted_metrics 1 weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish bullish 1 0.4546 0.6868 0.4546 1 0.9 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
67 US factory activity slumps to three-year low inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish bearish -1 -0.2737 0.4324 0.0234 -1 0.96 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
68 Consumer spending falls for third straight month inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish bearish -1 -0.609 0.7477 0.609 -1 0.88 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
69 Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 inverted_metrics 1 weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish bearish -1 -0.3926 0.6225 0.3926 -1 0.86 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
70 Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread inverted_metrics 1 higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish bullish 1 0.1372 0.5033 0.1372 0 0.87 0.0 0 -0.5 0.5 1 True
71 US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 inverted_metrics 1 higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish bullish 1 0.261 0.5912 0.261 1 0.91 0.0 0 -0.6 0.6 1 True
72 Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns distractors 0 irrelevant bearish -1 -0.522 0.692 0.522 -1 0.91 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
73 New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.4828 0.6731 0.4828 1 0.91 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
74 Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup distractors 0 irrelevant bearish -1 -0.0516 0.3947 0.0516 0 0.87 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
75 Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.4698 0.6111 0.3635 1 0.89 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
76 Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.285 0.4287 0.0012 1 0.87 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
77 Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe distractors 0 irrelevant bearish -1 -0.0721 0.387 0.0721 0 0.88 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
78 Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.3981 0.6574 0.3981 1 0.89 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
79 Local elections see record turnout in several US states distractors 0 irrelevant bullish 1 0.3854 0.573 0.3336 1 0.87 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True