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Initial import: XAUUSD news sentiment models, evals, and data tooling

Browse Source 
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the
two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py)
with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the
golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27
results and progress notes.

Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not
tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py.
The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Harwinder Sekhon
2026-09-27 19:22:30 -04:00
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headline,category,exp,rationale,model_label,model_cls,model_score,model_conf,model_margin,model_cls_band,model_ms,kw_xau,kw_cls,ds_s,ds_xau,ds_cls,ds_cached
Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky,hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish",bullish,1,0.1077,0.2529,0.2706,0,10.71,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year,hawkish_fed,-1,more hikes = stronger dollar/yields,bearish,-1,-0.9336,0.9384,0.9896,-1,9.24,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening,hawkish_fed,-1,tightening expectations weigh on gold,bearish,-1,-0.9436,0.9528,0.9808,-1,8.58,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy,hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.953,0.9605,0.9846,-1,9.87,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,outsized hike plus hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.9464,0.9563,0.9796,-1,8.62,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes,hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up",bearish,-1,-0.8945,0.9342,0.9184,-1,8.83,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish repricing,bearish,-1,-0.9473,0.9597,0.9744,-1,9.52,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year,hawkish_fed,-1,easing priced out,bearish,-1,-0.9311,0.9459,0.9692,-1,9.23,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come,dovish_fed,1,easing cycle is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.4825,0.7109,0.5136,1,8.85,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bearish,-1,-0.1477,0.3756,0.2448,0,9.17,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing,dovish_fed,1,dovish minutes,bearish,-1,-0.89,0.906,0.9652,-1,8.6,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bearish,-1,-0.5075,0.6881,0.5842,-1,9.08,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot,dovish_fed,1,pivot odds up,bullish,1,0.208,0.5444,0.236,1,9.16,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,easing priced in,bearish,-1,-0.2859,0.6263,0.2956,-1,8.61,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters,dovish_fed,1,global easing backdrop,bullish,1,0.6048,0.669,0.8248,1,8.59,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy,dovish_fed,1,QE is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.2472,0.4558,0.3722,1,8.87,0.0,0,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data,strong_usd,-1,strong dollar pressures gold,bearish,-1,-0.7474,0.8468,0.7898,-1,9.67,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication",neutral,0,0.0913,0.8623,0.7246,0,9.05,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board,strong_usd,-1,strong jobs lift dollar and yields,bullish,1,0.2809,0.3019,0.87,1,9.19,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,strong data,neutral,0,0.1461,0.8416,0.6832,0,8.69,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia,strong_usd,-1,dollar strength,neutral,0,0.1152,0.8594,0.7188,0,9.57,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand,strong_usd,-1,strong data,neutral,0,0.1326,0.8482,0.6964,0,9.49,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.2504,0.256,0.9572,1,9.39,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data,weak_usd,1,weak dollar lifts gold,bullish,1,0.1,0.4888,0.114,0,9.13,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides,weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication",bullish,1,0.4406,0.4516,0.9522,1,9.51,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract,weak_usd,1,weak data,neutral,0,0.0253,0.9296,0.8592,0,9.49,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.6,1,True
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,slowdown is dovish,bullish,1,0.4711,0.4962,0.9034,1,8.69,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record,weak_usd,1,dollar weakness,bullish,1,0.5227,0.7181,0.5722,1,9.66,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.5,1,True
Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy,weak_usd,1,cooling economy,neutral,0,0.0403,0.9369,0.8738,0,8.9,0.0,0,-0.4,0.4,1,True
US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low,weak_usd,1,weak data,bullish,1,0.2721,0.2993,0.8332,1,9.48,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off,real_yields,-1,rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost,bearish,-1,-0.572,0.7626,0.6002,-1,9.2,0.0,0,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut,real_yields,-1,yield spike,bearish,-1,-0.9196,0.9501,0.9378,-1,9.55,1.0,1,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets,real_yields,-1,explicit opportunity-cost story,bearish,-1,-0.4968,0.6803,0.5752,-1,8.77,0.0,0,0.5,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds,real_yields,1,falling yields support gold,bullish,1,0.6366,0.6986,0.837,1,8.93,0.0,0,-0.5,0.6,1,True
Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates,real_yields,1,negative real yields are gold's best backdrop,bullish,1,0.3207,0.5398,0.4224,1,9.33,0.0,0,-0.6,0.8,1,True
Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year,real_yields,1,falling yields,bearish,-1,-0.5384,0.7539,0.5554,-1,9.0,1.0,1,-0.5,0.6,1,True
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,safe-haven bid,bullish,1,0.4549,0.4637,0.963,1,9.25,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread,safe_haven,1,crisis flight to safety,bullish,1,0.4187,0.4287,0.9544,1,8.45,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets,safe_haven,1,explicit haven flow,bullish,1,0.2142,0.441,0.3206,1,8.81,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default,safe_haven,1,default shock,bullish,1,0.3017,0.3149,0.919,1,8.96,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets,safe_haven,1,geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.7,0.7426,0.8914,1,8.27,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic,safe_haven,1,risk-off,bullish,1,0.6095,0.6934,0.7842,1,8.56,-1.0,-1,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears,safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid",bullish,1,0.2205,0.2262,0.951,1,8.58,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,extreme geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.5411,0.6753,0.6684,1,8.48,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,haven unwind,bullish,1,0.2671,0.2759,0.938,1,8.98,0.0,0,0.6,-0.7,-1,True
Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed,risk_on,-1,risk-on drains haven demand,bullish,1,0.292,0.3007,0.9442,1,8.85,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.4151,0.4322,0.924,1,8.35,0.0,0,0.6,-0.6,-1,True
Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.5096,0.523,0.95,1,8.32,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion,gold_direct,1,direct demand,bullish,1,0.8306,0.8525,0.95,1,8.4,1.0,1,0.8,0.9,1,True
Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years,gold_direct,1,investment inflows,bullish,1,0.1983,0.208,0.9112,1,9.46,0.0,0,0.7,0.8,1,True
China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month,gold_direct,1,official-sector demand,neutral,0,0.1824,0.8097,0.6194,1,8.66,0.0,0,0.6,0.7,1,True
Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens,gold_direct,1,supply deficit,bullish,1,0.4046,0.4306,0.8862,1,8.62,-1.0,-1,0.5,0.6,1,True
Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run,gold_direct,-1,profit-taking pressure,bearish,-1,-0.8064,0.8759,0.853,-1,8.85,-1.0,-1,-0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate,gold_direct,-1,outflows,bearish,-1,-0.6862,0.815,0.727,-1,8.49,-1.0,-1,-0.7,-0.9,-1,True
Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls,gold_direct,-1,physical demand soft,neutral,0,0.1625,0.8019,0.6038,1,8.81,-1.0,-1,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens,gold_direct,-1,positioning unwind,bearish,-1,-0.8967,0.9392,0.9134,-1,8.95,1.0,1,-0.5,-0.6,-1,True
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish,bearish,-1,-0.2518,0.5065,0.3308,-1,8.84,-1.0,-1,0.3,0.5,1,True
Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling,negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish,bearish,-1,-0.1605,0.4276,0.231,-1,8.46,1.0,1,-0.2,-0.3,-1,True
Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates,negation_traps,-1,fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out,bullish,1,0.2104,0.2144,0.9636,1,9.72,0.0,0,0.4,-0.4,-1,True
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,disinflation opens door to cuts,bullish,1,0.4018,0.6285,0.4698,1,8.34,1.0,1,0.3,0.4,1,True
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,hawkish pushback phrased around negations,bullish,1,0.3185,0.3501,0.8346,1,9.38,0.0,0,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold with tightening bias,bearish,-1,-0.255,0.3532,0.565,-1,9.12,-1.0,-1,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,explicitly negated haven demand,bullish,1,0.5529,0.5748,0.9266,1,8.77,0.0,0,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,less-bad data is dollar-positive,bullish,1,0.4404,0.4931,0.8068,1,8.41,0.0,0,0.3,-0.4,-1,True
US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up,inverted_metrics,1,weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish,neutral,0,0.1649,0.8098,0.6196,1,9.12,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
US factory activity slumps to three-year low,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish,neutral,0,0.1219,0.8488,0.6976,0,8.43,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Consumer spending falls for third straight month,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish,neutral,0,0.0446,0.8583,0.7166,0,8.1,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020,inverted_metrics,1,weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish,neutral,0,0.061,0.911,0.822,0,8.98,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread,inverted_metrics,1,higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish,neutral,0,0.1605,0.8272,0.6544,1,9.5,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.2677,0.4956,0.37,1,8.59,0.0,0,-0.6,0.6,1,True
Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0464,0.9454,0.8908,0,8.68,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0508,0.9449,0.8898,0,8.87,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0402,0.957,0.914,0,8.14,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0483,0.9494,0.8988,0,9.87,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,-0.0285,0.8605,0.721,0,8.43,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0237,0.972,0.944,0,8.04,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0215,0.9771,0.9542,0,9.02,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Local elections see record turnout in several US states,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0548,0.9367,0.8734,0,8.39,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
1 headline category exp rationale model_label model_cls model_score model_conf model_margin model_cls_band model_ms kw_xau kw_cls ds_s ds_xau ds_cls ds_cached
2 Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky hawkish_fed -1 higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish bullish 1 0.1077 0.2529 0.2706 0 10.71 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
3 Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year hawkish_fed -1 more hikes = stronger dollar/yields bearish -1 -0.9336 0.9384 0.9896 -1 9.24 -1.0 -1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
4 Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening hawkish_fed -1 tightening expectations weigh on gold bearish -1 -0.9436 0.9528 0.9808 -1 8.58 -1.0 -1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
5 Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy hawkish_fed -1 hawkish guidance bearish -1 -0.953 0.9605 0.9846 -1 9.87 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
6 FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead hawkish_fed -1 outsized hike plus hawkish guidance bearish -1 -0.9464 0.9563 0.9796 -1 8.62 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
7 Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes hawkish_fed -1 cut hopes dashed, yields up bearish -1 -0.8945 0.9342 0.9184 -1 8.83 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
8 Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance hawkish_fed -1 hawkish repricing bearish -1 -0.9473 0.9597 0.9744 -1 9.52 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
9 Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year hawkish_fed -1 easing priced out bearish -1 -0.9311 0.9459 0.9692 -1 9.23 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
10 Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come dovish_fed 1 easing cycle is gold-bullish bullish 1 0.4825 0.7109 0.5136 1 8.85 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
11 Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target dovish_fed 1 cut guidance bearish -1 -0.1477 0.3756 0.2448 0 9.17 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
12 FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing dovish_fed 1 dovish minutes bearish -1 -0.89 0.906 0.9652 -1 8.6 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
13 Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year dovish_fed 1 cut guidance bearish -1 -0.5075 0.6881 0.5842 -1 9.08 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
14 Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot dovish_fed 1 pivot odds up bullish 1 0.208 0.5444 0.236 1 9.16 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
15 Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle dovish_fed 1 easing priced in bearish -1 -0.2859 0.6263 0.2956 -1 8.61 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
16 Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters dovish_fed 1 global easing backdrop bullish 1 0.6048 0.669 0.8248 1 8.59 1.0 1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
17 Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy dovish_fed 1 QE is gold-bullish bullish 1 0.2472 0.4558 0.3722 1 8.87 0.0 0 -0.4 0.7 1 True
18 Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data strong_usd -1 strong dollar pressures gold bearish -1 -0.7474 0.8468 0.7898 -1 9.67 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
19 US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations strong_usd -1 strong economy, hawkish implication neutral 0 0.0913 0.8623 0.7246 0 9.05 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
20 Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board strong_usd -1 strong jobs lift dollar and yields bullish 1 0.2809 0.3019 0.87 1 9.19 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
21 US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength strong_usd -1 strong data neutral 0 0.1461 0.8416 0.6832 0 8.69 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
22 Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia strong_usd -1 dollar strength neutral 0 0.1152 0.8594 0.7188 0 9.57 0.0 0 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
23 ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand strong_usd -1 strong data neutral 0 0.1326 0.8482 0.6964 0 9.49 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
24 Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US strong_usd -1 strong data bullish 1 0.2504 0.256 0.9572 1 9.39 1.0 1 0.4 -0.7 -1 True
25 Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data weak_usd 1 weak dollar lifts gold bullish 1 0.1 0.4888 0.114 0 9.13 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
26 US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides weak_usd 1 weak jobs, dovish implication bullish 1 0.4406 0.4516 0.9522 1 9.51 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.7 1 True
27 Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract weak_usd 1 weak data neutral 0 0.0253 0.9296 0.8592 0 9.49 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.6 1 True
28 US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears weak_usd 1 slowdown is dovish bullish 1 0.4711 0.4962 0.9034 1 8.69 0.0 0 -0.5 0.5 1 True
29 Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record weak_usd 1 dollar weakness bullish 1 0.5227 0.7181 0.5722 1 9.66 -1.0 -1 -0.4 0.5 1 True
30 Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy weak_usd 1 cooling economy neutral 0 0.0403 0.9369 0.8738 0 8.9 0.0 0 -0.4 0.4 1 True
31 US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low weak_usd 1 weak data bullish 1 0.2721 0.2993 0.8332 1 9.48 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
32 Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off real_yields -1 rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost bearish -1 -0.572 0.7626 0.6002 -1 9.2 0.0 0 0.6 -0.8 -1 True
33 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut real_yields -1 yield spike bearish -1 -0.9196 0.9501 0.9378 -1 9.55 1.0 1 0.6 -0.8 -1 True
34 Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets real_yields -1 explicit opportunity-cost story bearish -1 -0.4968 0.6803 0.5752 -1 8.77 0.0 0 0.5 -0.7 -1 True
35 Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds real_yields 1 falling yields support gold bullish 1 0.6366 0.6986 0.837 1 8.93 0.0 0 -0.5 0.6 1 True
36 Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates real_yields 1 negative real yields are gold's best backdrop bullish 1 0.3207 0.5398 0.4224 1 9.33 0.0 0 -0.6 0.8 1 True
37 Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year real_yields 1 falling yields bearish -1 -0.5384 0.7539 0.5554 -1 9.0 1.0 1 -0.5 0.6 1 True
38 Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety safe_haven 1 safe-haven bid bullish 1 0.4549 0.4637 0.963 1 9.25 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
39 Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread safe_haven 1 crisis flight to safety bullish 1 0.4187 0.4287 0.9544 1 8.45 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
40 Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets safe_haven 1 explicit haven flow bullish 1 0.2142 0.441 0.3206 1 8.81 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
41 Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default safe_haven 1 default shock bullish 1 0.3017 0.3149 0.919 1 8.96 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
42 Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets safe_haven 1 geopolitical stress bullish 1 0.7 0.7426 0.8914 1 8.27 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
43 Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic safe_haven 1 risk-off bullish 1 0.6095 0.6934 0.7842 1 8.56 -1.0 -1 -0.8 0.9 1 True
44 Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears safe_haven 1 contagion, haven bid bullish 1 0.2205 0.2262 0.951 1 8.58 0.0 0 -0.7 0.8 1 True
45 Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens safe_haven 1 extreme geopolitical stress bullish 1 0.5411 0.6753 0.6684 1 8.48 0.0 0 -0.8 0.9 1 True
46 Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades risk_on -1 haven unwind bullish 1 0.2671 0.2759 0.938 1 8.98 0.0 0 0.6 -0.7 -1 True
47 Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed risk_on -1 risk-on drains haven demand bullish 1 0.292 0.3007 0.9442 1 8.85 1.0 1 0.7 -0.7 -1 True
48 Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside risk_on -1 risk-on bullish 1 0.4151 0.4322 0.924 1 8.35 0.0 0 0.6 -0.6 -1 True
49 Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions risk_on -1 risk-on bullish 1 0.5096 0.523 0.95 1 8.32 1.0 1 0.7 -0.7 -1 True
50 Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion gold_direct 1 direct demand bullish 1 0.8306 0.8525 0.95 1 8.4 1.0 1 0.8 0.9 1 True
51 Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years gold_direct 1 investment inflows bullish 1 0.1983 0.208 0.9112 1 9.46 0.0 0 0.7 0.8 1 True
52 China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month gold_direct 1 official-sector demand neutral 0 0.1824 0.8097 0.6194 1 8.66 0.0 0 0.6 0.7 1 True
53 Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens gold_direct 1 supply deficit bullish 1 0.4046 0.4306 0.8862 1 8.62 -1.0 -1 0.5 0.6 1 True
54 Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run gold_direct -1 profit-taking pressure bearish -1 -0.8064 0.8759 0.853 -1 8.85 -1.0 -1 -0.6 -0.8 -1 True
55 Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate gold_direct -1 outflows bearish -1 -0.6862 0.815 0.727 -1 8.49 -1.0 -1 -0.7 -0.9 -1 True
56 Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls gold_direct -1 physical demand soft neutral 0 0.1625 0.8019 0.6038 1 8.81 -1.0 -1 -0.4 -0.5 -1 True
57 Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens gold_direct -1 positioning unwind bearish -1 -0.8967 0.9392 0.9134 -1 8.95 1.0 1 -0.5 -0.6 -1 True
58 Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon negation_traps 1 dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish bearish -1 -0.2518 0.5065 0.3308 -1 8.84 -1.0 -1 0.3 0.5 1 True
59 Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling negation_traps -1 hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish bearish -1 -0.1605 0.4276 0.231 -1 8.46 1.0 1 -0.2 -0.3 -1 True
60 Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates negation_traps -1 fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out bullish 1 0.2104 0.2144 0.9636 1 9.72 0.0 0 0.4 -0.4 -1 True
61 Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed negation_traps 1 disinflation opens door to cuts bullish 1 0.4018 0.6285 0.4698 1 8.34 1.0 1 0.3 0.4 1 True
62 Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature negation_traps -1 hawkish pushback phrased around negations bullish 1 0.3185 0.3501 0.8346 1 9.38 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.5 -1 True
63 Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume negation_traps -1 hawkish hold with tightening bias bearish -1 -0.255 0.3532 0.565 -1 9.12 -1.0 -1 -0.3 -0.4 -1 True
64 No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say negation_traps -1 explicitly negated haven demand bullish 1 0.5529 0.5748 0.9266 1 8.77 0.0 0 -0.3 -0.4 -1 True
65 Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers negation_traps -1 less-bad data is dollar-positive bullish 1 0.4404 0.4931 0.8068 1 8.41 0.0 0 0.3 -0.4 -1 True
66 US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up inverted_metrics 1 weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish neutral 0 0.1649 0.8098 0.6196 1 9.12 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
67 US factory activity slumps to three-year low inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish neutral 0 0.1219 0.8488 0.6976 0 8.43 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
68 Consumer spending falls for third straight month inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish neutral 0 0.0446 0.8583 0.7166 0 8.1 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
69 Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 inverted_metrics 1 weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish neutral 0 0.061 0.911 0.822 0 8.98 -1.0 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 True
70 Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread inverted_metrics 1 higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish neutral 0 0.1605 0.8272 0.6544 1 9.5 0.0 0 -0.5 0.5 1 True
71 US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 inverted_metrics 1 higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish bullish 1 0.2677 0.4956 0.37 1 8.59 0.0 0 -0.6 0.6 1 True
72 Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.0464 0.9454 0.8908 0 8.68 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
73 New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.0508 0.9449 0.8898 0 8.87 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
74 Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.0402 0.957 0.914 0 8.14 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
75 Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.0483 0.9494 0.8988 0 9.87 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
76 Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 -0.0285 0.8605 0.721 0 8.43 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
77 Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.0237 0.972 0.944 0 8.04 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
78 Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.0215 0.9771 0.9542 0 9.02 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True
79 Local elections see record turnout in several US states distractors 0 irrelevant neutral 0 0.0548 0.9367 0.8734 0 8.39 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 True