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Initial import: XAUUSD news sentiment models, evals, and data tooling

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TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the
two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py)
with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the
golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27
results and progress notes.

Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not
tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py.
The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Harwinder Sekhon
2026-09-27 19:22:30 -04:00
commit 1d72e4006a
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DeepSeek deepseek-v4-flash, prompt d32e04c6; budget 140 calls
pools: precise 3491, broad 18244 unlabelled; picked 3500
selected 3500 unlabelled headlines
250 labelled, 10 calls (0 failed), 0 from cache
500 labelled, 20 calls (0 failed), 0 from cache
750 labelled, 30 calls (0 failed), 0 from cache
1000 labelled, 40 calls (0 failed), 0 from cache
1250 labelled, 50 calls (0 failed), 0 from cache
DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 1/3, None) — retrying
DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 2/3, None) — retrying
DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 3/3, None) — retrying
1475 labelled, 62 calls (3 failed), 0 from cache
1725 labelled, 72 calls (3 failed), 0 from cache
1975 labelled, 82 calls (3 failed), 0 from cache
WARNING llm_client: DeepSeek HTTP 502: <html>
<head><title>502 Bad Gateway</title></head>
<body>
<center><h1>502 Bad Gateway</h1></center>
<hr><center>nginx</center>
</body>
</html>
DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 1/3, (1790538226.2151284, 'http_502')) — retrying
2225 labelled, 93 calls (4 failed), 0 from cache
2475 labelled, 103 calls (4 failed), 0 from cache
2725 labelled, 113 calls (4 failed), 0 from cache
2975 labelled, 123 calls (4 failed), 0 from cache
3225 labelled, 133 calls (4 failed), 0 from cache
3400 labelled, 140 calls (4 failed), 0 from cache
this run: 140 calls, 4 failed, 3400 headlines labelled
9650 labelled headlines
year n bear irrel bull relevant mean xau
2009 10 0 10 0 0.0% +0.000
2010 10 0 10 0 0.0% +0.000
2011 10 0 10 0 0.0% +0.000
2012 2 0 2 0 0.0% +0.000
2015 13 0 13 0 0.0% +0.000
2016 6 0 6 0 0.0% +0.000
2017 33 0 33 0 0.0% +0.000
2018 19 0 19 0 0.0% +0.000
2019 653 48 423 135 28.0% +0.073
2020 701 58 438 139 28.1% +0.075
2021 790 71 562 103 22.0% +0.025
2022 1091 127 641 207 30.6% +0.037
2023 1184 121 731 225 29.2% +0.045
2024 1270 106 753 307 32.5% +0.086
2025 2010 188 953 660 42.2% +0.130
2026 1848 316 823 495 43.9% +0.042
(relevant = |xau| >= 0.25, irrel = |xau| <= 0.10, the rest is the grey zone)