DeepSeek deepseek-v4-flash, prompt d32e04c6; budget 200 calls
pools: precise 2778, broad 20532 unlabelled; picked 5000
selected 5000 unlabelled headlines
  250 labelled, 10 calls (0 failed), 0 from cache
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 1/3, None) — retrying
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 2/3, None) — retrying
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 3/3, None) — retrying
  475 labelled, 22 calls (3 failed), 0 from cache
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 1/3, None) — retrying
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 2/3, None) — retrying
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 3/3, None) — retrying
  700 labelled, 34 calls (6 failed), 0 from cache
  950 labelled, 44 calls (6 failed), 0 from cache
  1200 labelled, 54 calls (6 failed), 0 from cache
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 1/3, None) — retrying
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 2/3, None) — retrying
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 3/3, None) — retrying
  1425 labelled, 66 calls (9 failed), 0 from cache
  1675 labelled, 76 calls (9 failed), 0 from cache
  1925 labelled, 86 calls (9 failed), 0 from cache
  2175 labelled, 96 calls (9 failed), 0 from cache
  2425 labelled, 106 calls (9 failed), 0 from cache
  2675 labelled, 116 calls (9 failed), 0 from cache
  2925 labelled, 126 calls (9 failed), 0 from cache
  3175 labelled, 136 calls (9 failed), 0 from cache
  DeepSeek batch of 25 failed (attempt 1/3, None) — retrying
  3425 labelled, 147 calls (10 failed), 0 from cache
  3675 labelled, 157 calls (10 failed), 0 from cache
  3925 labelled, 167 calls (10 failed), 0 from cache
  4175 labelled, 177 calls (10 failed), 0 from cache
  4425 labelled, 187 calls (10 failed), 0 from cache
  4675 labelled, 197 calls (10 failed), 0 from cache
  4750 labelled, 200 calls (10 failed), 0 from cache
this run: 200 calls, 10 failed, 4750 headlines labelled
6250 labelled headlines
  year       n   bear  irrel   bull  relevant  mean xau
  2009      10      0     10      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2010       9      0      9      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2011      10      0     10      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2012       2      0      2      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2015      13      0     13      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2016       6      0      6      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2017      30      0     30      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2018      19      0     19      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2019     462     23    359     58    17.5%    +0.040
  2020     507     29    366     69    19.3%    +0.061
  2021     638     45    496     65    17.2%    +0.018
  2022     707     72    477     97    23.9%    +0.020
  2023     796     55    574    108    20.5%    +0.037
  2024     807     48    568    139    23.2%    +0.062
  2025    1067     97    543    329    39.9%    +0.118
  2026    1167    218    559    258    40.8%    +0.005
  (relevant = |xau| >= 0.25, irrel = |xau| <= 0.10, the rest is the grey zone)