# Session progress: 2026-09-27

Continues `PROGRESS_2026-09-22.md`. Full numbers in `eval/RESULTS_2026-09-27.md`.

DeepSeek calls this session: **560** (20 pilot + 200 full run + 140 precise top-up + 200 growth set; 15
failed), approved by the user in-session. 13,625 crawled headlines labelled; history labels now total
14,625.

## Done, in order

1. **Precise crawl resumed** (`crawl_google_news.py --query-set precise`). It ran in the background the
   whole session and was still running at the end, at about 860 windows done today and 3,300 to go. Its
   log (`logs/crawl_precise.log`) is block-buffered and lags; use `pgrep -f crawl_google_news` and the
   `crawl_log` table.
2. **Trained the transformer on the 3,620 labelled rows available before any DeepSeek call**, swept 8
   configs, exported, evaluated: golden 49/78, unseen days 65.7%. Failed the golden bar of 55. Written up
   as the "3,620 rows" column in the results file.
3. **Pilot, 20 calls, precise pool only:** 52% gold-relevant vs 7% for the broad pool. No hindsight bias
   worth worrying about. Log: `logs/label_pilot2.log`.
4. **Full run, 200 calls, 30% broad share:** 4,750 headlines. Log: `logs/label_full_20260927.log`.
5. **Retrained on 8,870 rows, swept 5 configs** (all within 1.2 val points of each other). Chosen on dev:
   lr 5e-5, 4 epochs, batch 64, best epoch 3.
   - Golden 62/78, distractors 8/8, Sep 18–22 agreement 71.9%, latency 19.0 ms. **All four promotion
     criteria pass.**
6. **`train.py --final`** on all 8,870 rows for 3 epochs, exported from `torch_final`. Shipped bundle
   `models/xau_transformer/{model.onnx,tokenizer.json,meta.json}`: golden 65/78, 0 decision flips, 18.9 ms.
7. Wrote `eval/RESULTS_2026-09-27.md`.
8. **Round 2, at the user's request:** 140 more calls labelled the remaining 3,400 precise headlines.
   Retrained on 12,270 rows (default config, no sweep). Non-final: golden 64/78, Sep 18–22 71.8%. Final on
   all rows, 4 epochs: **golden 67/78**, 18.9 ms. Re-exported; this is the shipped bundle now. The live-feed
   metric did not move (72.0 → 71.7%), so it has saturated on history labels.
9. **Round 3, "teach it the two weak spots":** added a `growth` query set to the crawler (20 `intitle:`
   queries: GDP, retail sales, ISM, PMI, jobless claims, consumer confidence/spending, manufacturing,
   "record high", "risk appetite", "Wall Street", "S&P 500", ceasefire, "trade deal", equities). Paused
   the precise crawl, crawled 1,880 windows (6,183 headlines), resumed the precise crawl. Added
   `--query-set` and a non-Latin filter to `label_history.py`. 200 calls labelled 4,975 growth headlines.
   Retrained on 17,245 rows: non-final golden 71/78, Sep 18–22 71.5%; **final golden 72/78**, strong_usd
   7/7, risk_on 4/4, 18.8 ms. Re-exported; this is the shipped bundle now.

## Where things are

| Path | What |
|---|---|
| `models/xau_transformer/` | shipped ONNX bundle from round 3 `torch_final` (17,245 rows, golden 72/78) |
| `models/xau_transformer/torch/` | round 3 non-final weights (val numbers belong to these) |
| `models/xau_transformer/torch_final/` | round 3 final weights |
| session scratchpad `sweep2/*_8870rows`, `sweep2/*_12270rows` | round 1 and round 2 weights |
| `models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib` | TF-IDF, unchanged, still what ForexBot2 would load if it loaded anything |
| session scratchpad `sweep/`, `sweep2/` | all other sweep runs; may not survive a reboot |
| `eval/results/golden_20260927_2315_transformer.*` | round 3 final model golden eval (72/78) |
| `eval/results/archive_20260927_2313_transformer.json` | round 3 non-final archive eval |
| `eval/results/golden_20260927_1949_*`, `archive_20260927_1947_*` | round 2 equivalents |
| `eval/results/golden_20260927_1931_transformer.*`, `archive_20260927_1927_*` | round 1 equivalents |

## Known issues

- `export_onnx.py` prints `PARITY FAILED` on max |diff| (0.06–0.08 vs tolerance 0.05) even with 0 flips.
  Loosen the tolerance or check flips only.
- 14 of 340 label batches failed (DeepSeek timeouts / one 502); those headlines are simply unlabelled and
  will be picked up by the next run. About 570 precise headlines were unlabelled at the end, plus whatever
  the still-running crawl adds.
- 2025 labels have a mean xau of +0.12, higher than other years. Possible hindsight in DeepSeek's labels
  for the rally year.

## Next

See "Next, revised" in the results file. The weak spots are fixed on the golden set. The step that now
produces new information is shadow mode in ForexBot2; more history labels will not. Watch the gold-key
live-feed number (83 → 79%) as history labels come to dominate the training set. The precise crawl is
still running in the background and is free to leave alone.