DeepSeek deepseek-v4-flash, prompt d32e04c6; budget 20 calls
pools: precise 3137, broad 20533 unlabelled; picked 500
selected 500 unlabelled headlines
  250 labelled, 10 calls (0 failed), 0 from cache
  500 labelled, 20 calls (0 failed), 0 from cache
this run: 20 calls, 0 failed, 500 headlines labelled
1500 labelled headlines
  year       n   bear  irrel   bull  relevant  mean xau
  2009       4      0      4      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2010       6      0      6      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2011       9      0      9      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2012       2      0      2      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2015       8      0      8      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2016       5      0      5      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2017      12      0     12      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2018      10      0     10      0     0.0%    +0.000
  2019     149     13    112     16    19.5%    +0.022
  2020     157     10    117     19    18.5%    +0.042
  2021     201     17    154     23    19.9%    +0.020
  2022     188     17    129     29    24.5%    +0.034
  2023     194     13    150     19    16.5%    +0.018
  2024     226     11    164     40    22.6%    +0.066
  2025     191     17    117     38    28.8%    +0.062
  2026     138     22     71     28    36.2%    +0.004
  (relevant = |xau| >= 0.25, irrel = |xau| <= 0.10, the rest is the grey zone)