Harwinder Sekhon
01baef48ff
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py) with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27 results and progress notes. Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py. The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked.
12 KiB
12 KiB
| 1 | headline | category | exp | rationale | model_label | model_cls | model_score | model_conf | model_margin | model_cls_band | model_ms | kw_xau | kw_cls | ds_s | ds_xau | ds_cls | ds_cached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky | hawkish_fed | -1 | higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish | neutral | 0 | 0.0904 | 0.4167 | 0.0798 | 0 | 6.73 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 3 | Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year | hawkish_fed | -1 | more hikes = stronger dollar/yields | bearish | -1 | -0.4814 | 0.6552 | 0.4814 | -1 | 1.15 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 4 | Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening | hawkish_fed | -1 | tightening expectations weigh on gold | bullish | 1 | 0.2563 | 0.5806 | 0.2563 | 1 | 1.06 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 5 | Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish guidance | bullish | 1 | 0.2228 | 0.4954 | 0.2228 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 6 | FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead | hawkish_fed | -1 | outsized hike plus hawkish guidance | bullish | 1 | 0.1416 | 0.5135 | 0.1416 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 7 | Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes | hawkish_fed | -1 | cut hopes dashed, yields up | bearish | -1 | -0.3577 | 0.6683 | 0.3577 | -1 | 0.98 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 8 | Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish repricing | bearish | -1 | -0.7191 | 0.8306 | 0.7191 | -1 | 0.99 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 9 | Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year | hawkish_fed | -1 | easing priced out | neutral | 0 | 0.2487 | 0.4401 | 0.0357 | 1 | 0.95 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 10 | Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come | dovish_fed | 1 | easing cycle is gold-bullish | bearish | -1 | -0.1208 | 0.4302 | 0.1208 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 11 | Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance | bullish | 1 | 0.2497 | 0.5899 | 0.2497 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 12 | FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing | dovish_fed | 1 | dovish minutes | bullish | 1 | 0.2525 | 0.5119 | 0.2525 | 1 | 0.93 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 13 | Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance | bullish | 1 | 0.4653 | 0.6188 | 0.3911 | 1 | 0.96 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 14 | Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot | dovish_fed | 1 | pivot odds up | bullish | 1 | 0.5022 | 0.6754 | 0.5022 | 1 | 0.93 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 15 | Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle | dovish_fed | 1 | easing priced in | bearish | -1 | -0.1429 | 0.4917 | 0.1429 | 0 | 0.93 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 16 | Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters | dovish_fed | 1 | global easing backdrop | bullish | 1 | 0.1851 | 0.5595 | 0.1851 | 1 | 0.94 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 17 | Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy | dovish_fed | 1 | QE is gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.2589 | 0.5396 | 0.2589 | 1 | 0.96 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 18 | Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data | strong_usd | -1 | strong dollar pressures gold | bullish | 1 | 0.073 | 0.4838 | 0.073 | 0 | 1.63 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 19 | US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations | strong_usd | -1 | strong economy, hawkish implication | bullish | 1 | 0.1629 | 0.5286 | 0.1629 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 20 | Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board | strong_usd | -1 | strong jobs lift dollar and yields | bearish | -1 | -0.2423 | 0.5696 | 0.2423 | -1 | 0.98 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 21 | US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bearish | -1 | -0.0595 | 0.4566 | 0.0595 | 0 | 0.97 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 22 | Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia | strong_usd | -1 | dollar strength | bullish | 1 | 0.4212 | 0.6408 | 0.4212 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 23 | ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bullish | 1 | 0.1071 | 0.4217 | 0.1071 | 0 | 0.91 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 24 | Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bullish | 1 | 0.7355 | 0.8224 | 0.7317 | 1 | 1.02 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 25 | Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data | weak_usd | 1 | weak dollar lifts gold | bearish | -1 | -0.3126 | 0.5838 | 0.3126 | -1 | 0.96 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 26 | US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides | weak_usd | 1 | weak jobs, dovish implication | bearish | -1 | -0.0068 | 0.4805 | 0.0068 | 0 | 0.96 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 27 | Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract | weak_usd | 1 | weak data | bearish | -1 | -0.3367 | 0.6181 | 0.3367 | -1 | 0.94 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 28 | US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears | weak_usd | 1 | slowdown is dovish | bullish | 1 | 0.2244 | 0.56 | 0.2244 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 29 | Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record | weak_usd | 1 | dollar weakness | bullish | 1 | 0.1422 | 0.5326 | 0.1422 | 0 | 0.92 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 30 | Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy | weak_usd | 1 | cooling economy | bullish | 1 | 0.2079 | 0.4338 | 0.0936 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1 | True |
| 31 | US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low | weak_usd | 1 | weak data | bullish | 1 | 0.3502 | 0.5463 | 0.2885 | 1 | 0.89 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 32 | Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off | real_yields | -1 | rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost | bearish | -1 | -0.5952 | 0.7596 | 0.5952 | -1 | 0.98 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 33 | 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut | real_yields | -1 | yield spike | bearish | -1 | -0.6403 | 0.8008 | 0.6403 | -1 | 0.95 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 34 | Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets | real_yields | -1 | explicit opportunity-cost story | bearish | -1 | -0.1359 | 0.443 | 0.1359 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 35 | Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds | real_yields | 1 | falling yields support gold | bearish | -1 | -0.294 | 0.6085 | 0.294 | -1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 36 | Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates | real_yields | 1 | negative real yields are gold's best backdrop | bearish | -1 | -0.3052 | 0.5599 | 0.3052 | -1 | 0.91 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 37 | Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year | real_yields | 1 | falling yields | bearish | -1 | -0.049 | 0.4416 | 0.049 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 38 | Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety | safe_haven | 1 | safe-haven bid | bullish | 1 | 0.7083 | 0.7749 | 0.6164 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 39 | Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread | safe_haven | 1 | crisis flight to safety | bullish | 1 | 0.036 | 0.3923 | 0.036 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 40 | Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets | safe_haven | 1 | explicit haven flow | bullish | 1 | 0.3576 | 0.5705 | 0.354 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 41 | Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default | safe_haven | 1 | default shock | bullish | 1 | 0.3298 | 0.6221 | 0.3298 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 42 | Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets | safe_haven | 1 | geopolitical stress | bullish | 1 | 0.1883 | 0.4891 | 0.1883 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 43 | Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic | safe_haven | 1 | risk-off | bullish | 1 | 0.326 | 0.5681 | 0.326 | 1 | 0.88 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 44 | Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears | safe_haven | 1 | contagion, haven bid | bullish | 1 | 0.425 | 0.6048 | 0.3894 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 45 | Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens | safe_haven | 1 | extreme geopolitical stress | bullish | 1 | 0.3099 | 0.5248 | 0.2647 | 1 | 0.97 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 46 | Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades | risk_on | -1 | haven unwind | bullish | 1 | 0.3404 | 0.5448 | 0.2941 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 47 | Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed | risk_on | -1 | risk-on drains haven demand | bullish | 1 | 0.1254 | 0.4559 | 0.1254 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 48 | Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside | risk_on | -1 | risk-on | bearish | -1 | -0.3561 | 0.6452 | 0.3561 | -1 | 0.94 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -1 | True |
| 49 | Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions | risk_on | -1 | risk-on | bullish | 1 | 0.2155 | 0.5437 | 0.2155 | 1 | 1.38 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 50 | Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion | gold_direct | 1 | direct demand | bullish | 1 | 0.4925 | 0.7262 | 0.4925 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 51 | Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years | gold_direct | 1 | investment inflows | bullish | 1 | 0.0726 | 0.3818 | 0.0726 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 52 | China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month | gold_direct | 1 | official-sector demand | bullish | 1 | 0.3553 | 0.6092 | 0.3553 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 53 | Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens | gold_direct | 1 | supply deficit | bullish | 1 | 0.2704 | 0.5196 | 0.2704 | 1 | 0.91 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 54 | Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run | gold_direct | -1 | profit-taking pressure | bearish | -1 | -0.8912 | 0.9406 | 0.8912 | -1 | 0.99 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 55 | Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate | gold_direct | -1 | outflows | bearish | -1 | -0.9595 | 0.9726 | 0.9582 | -1 | 0.95 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1 | True |
| 56 | Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls | gold_direct | -1 | physical demand soft | bearish | -1 | -0.776 | 0.8712 | 0.776 | -1 | 0.99 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1 | True |
| 57 | Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens | gold_direct | -1 | positioning unwind | bearish | -1 | -0.6148 | 0.7935 | 0.6148 | -1 | 0.96 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -1 | True |
| 58 | Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon | negation_traps | 1 | dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish | bearish | -1 | -0.7359 | 0.8528 | 0.7359 | -1 | 0.95 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 59 | Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.2903 | 0.5668 | 0.2903 | 1 | 0.94 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1 | True |
| 60 | Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates | negation_traps | -1 | fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out | bullish | 1 | 0.2581 | 0.5706 | 0.2581 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 61 | Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed | negation_traps | 1 | disinflation opens door to cuts | bearish | -1 | -0.184 | 0.4807 | 0.184 | -1 | 0.92 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 | True |
| 62 | Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish pushback phrased around negations | bullish | 1 | 0.4931 | 0.6207 | 0.3691 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1 | True |
| 63 | Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold with tightening bias | bullish | 1 | 0.3823 | 0.5919 | 0.3823 | 1 | 0.94 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 64 | No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say | negation_traps | -1 | explicitly negated haven demand | bullish | 1 | 0.5646 | 0.6494 | 0.3835 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 65 | Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers | negation_traps | -1 | less-bad data is dollar-positive | bullish | 1 | 0.2453 | 0.5819 | 0.2453 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 66 | US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.0409 | 0.4625 | 0.0409 | 0 | 1.59 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 67 | US factory activity slumps to three-year low | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish | neutral | 0 | -0.077 | 0.5058 | 0.2201 | 0 | 0.94 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 68 | Consumer spending falls for third straight month | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish | bearish | -1 | -0.6046 | 0.7367 | 0.6046 | -1 | 0.92 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 69 | Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish | bearish | -1 | -0.063 | 0.4262 | 0.063 | 0 | 0.9 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 70 | Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.1541 | 0.4806 | 0.1541 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 71 | US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.3553 | 0.6196 | 0.3553 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 72 | Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | bearish | -1 | -0.4619 | 0.649 | 0.4619 | -1 | 0.89 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 73 | New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | bullish | 1 | 0.0073 | 0.387 | 0.0073 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 74 | Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | bearish | -1 | -0.4632 | 0.5858 | 0.2943 | -1 | 0.92 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 75 | Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | bullish | 1 | 0.1195 | 0.3795 | 0.0191 | 0 | 0.91 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 76 | Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.1291 | 0.5284 | 0.2281 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 77 | Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | bullish | 1 | 0.1086 | 0.4033 | 0.1013 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 78 | Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | bullish | 1 | 0.2784 | 0.5894 | 0.2784 | 1 | 0.95 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 79 | Local elections see record turnout in several US states | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | bullish | 1 | 0.4703 | 0.6488 | 0.4703 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |