Harwinder Sekhon
1d72e4006a
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py) with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27 results and progress notes. Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py. The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
12 KiB
12 KiB
| 1 | headline | category | exp | rationale | model_label | model_cls | model_score | model_conf | model_margin | model_cls_band | model_ms | kw_xau | kw_cls | ds_s | ds_xau | ds_cls | ds_cached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky | hawkish_fed | -1 | higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.435 | 0.71 | 0.4416 | 1 | 10.24 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 3 | Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year | hawkish_fed | -1 | more hikes = stronger dollar/yields | bearish | -1 | -0.9869 | 0.9895 | 0.9948 | -1 | 8.82 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 4 | Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening | hawkish_fed | -1 | tightening expectations weigh on gold | bearish | -1 | -0.9821 | 0.9882 | 0.9878 | -1 | 8.62 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 5 | Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish guidance | bearish | -1 | -0.9816 | 0.989 | 0.9852 | -1 | 8.9 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 6 | FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead | hawkish_fed | -1 | outsized hike plus hawkish guidance | bearish | -1 | -0.9705 | 0.9819 | 0.9772 | -1 | 8.36 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 7 | Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes | hawkish_fed | -1 | cut hopes dashed, yields up | bearish | -1 | -0.9821 | 0.9885 | 0.987 | -1 | 8.52 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 8 | Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish repricing | bearish | -1 | -0.9839 | 0.9898 | 0.988 | -1 | 8.47 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 9 | Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year | hawkish_fed | -1 | easing priced out | bearish | -1 | -0.8147 | 0.8881 | 0.8474 | -1 | 8.79 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 10 | Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come | dovish_fed | 1 | easing cycle is gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.9611 | 0.9785 | 0.9652 | 1 | 8.51 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 11 | Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance | bullish | 1 | 0.9687 | 0.9818 | 0.9736 | 1 | 8.52 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 12 | FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing | dovish_fed | 1 | dovish minutes | bearish | -1 | -0.6319 | 0.813 | 0.6356 | -1 | 8.11 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 13 | Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance | bullish | 1 | 0.8866 | 0.9419 | 0.889 | 1 | 9.01 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 14 | Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot | dovish_fed | 1 | pivot odds up | bullish | 1 | 0.6963 | 0.846 | 0.6992 | 1 | 8.48 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 15 | Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle | dovish_fed | 1 | easing priced in | bullish | 1 | 0.9659 | 0.9805 | 0.9706 | 1 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 16 | Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters | dovish_fed | 1 | global easing backdrop | bullish | 1 | 0.963 | 0.9793 | 0.9672 | 1 | 8.31 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 17 | Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy | dovish_fed | 1 | QE is gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.8518 | 0.8915 | 0.9148 | 1 | 8.26 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 18 | Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data | strong_usd | -1 | strong dollar pressures gold | bearish | -1 | -0.977 | 0.9862 | 0.9816 | -1 | 8.56 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 19 | US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations | strong_usd | -1 | strong economy, hawkish implication | bearish | -1 | -0.9141 | 0.9473 | 0.9324 | -1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 20 | Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board | strong_usd | -1 | strong jobs lift dollar and yields | bearish | -1 | -0.7855 | 0.8878 | 0.7934 | -1 | 8.45 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 21 | US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bullish | 1 | 0.0678 | 0.4828 | 0.0756 | 0 | 8.54 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 22 | Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia | strong_usd | -1 | dollar strength | bullish | 1 | 0.5423 | 0.5931 | 0.842 | 1 | 8.98 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 23 | ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bullish | 1 | 0.5227 | 0.7138 | 0.5778 | 1 | 9.02 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 24 | Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bullish | 1 | 0.8318 | 0.8869 | 0.8828 | 1 | 8.85 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 25 | Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data | weak_usd | 1 | weak dollar lifts gold | bullish | 1 | 0.9782 | 0.987 | 0.9824 | 1 | 8.67 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 26 | US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides | weak_usd | 1 | weak jobs, dovish implication | bullish | 1 | 0.9593 | 0.9647 | 0.9888 | 1 | 8.63 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 27 | Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract | weak_usd | 1 | weak data | neutral | 0 | 0.0424 | 0.9499 | 0.8998 | 0 | 8.41 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 28 | US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears | weak_usd | 1 | slowdown is dovish | bullish | 1 | 0.9198 | 0.9543 | 0.9304 | 1 | 8.39 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 29 | Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record | weak_usd | 1 | dollar weakness | bullish | 1 | 0.9755 | 0.9822 | 0.9864 | 1 | 8.3 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 30 | Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy | weak_usd | 1 | cooling economy | bullish | 1 | 0.9491 | 0.9568 | 0.984 | 1 | 8.31 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1 | True |
| 31 | US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low | weak_usd | 1 | weak data | bullish | 1 | 0.9674 | 0.9767 | 0.981 | 1 | 8.48 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 32 | Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off | real_yields | -1 | rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost | bearish | -1 | -0.9657 | 0.9814 | 0.9684 | -1 | 9.08 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 33 | 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut | real_yields | -1 | yield spike | bearish | -1 | -0.9467 | 0.9716 | 0.95 | -1 | 8.58 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 34 | Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets | real_yields | -1 | explicit opportunity-cost story | bullish | 1 | 0.2024 | 0.5906 | 0.2068 | 1 | 8.55 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 35 | Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds | real_yields | 1 | falling yields support gold | bullish | 1 | 0.9594 | 0.9674 | 0.9838 | 1 | 8.18 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 36 | Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates | real_yields | 1 | negative real yields are gold's best backdrop | bullish | 1 | 0.9367 | 0.962 | 0.9488 | 1 | 8.27 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 37 | Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year | real_yields | 1 | falling yields | bullish | 1 | 0.9671 | 0.98 | 0.974 | 1 | 8.67 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 38 | Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety | safe_haven | 1 | safe-haven bid | bullish | 1 | 0.9226 | 0.9402 | 0.9632 | 1 | 8.56 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 39 | Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread | safe_haven | 1 | crisis flight to safety | bullish | 1 | 0.9016 | 0.9459 | 0.9106 | 1 | 8.15 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 40 | Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets | safe_haven | 1 | explicit haven flow | bearish | -1 | -0.643 | 0.8165 | 0.6494 | -1 | 8.55 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 41 | Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default | safe_haven | 1 | default shock | bullish | 1 | 0.755 | 0.8659 | 0.7728 | 1 | 8.18 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 42 | Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets | safe_haven | 1 | geopolitical stress | bullish | 1 | 0.9496 | 0.9693 | 0.9602 | 1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 43 | Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic | safe_haven | 1 | risk-off | bullish | 1 | 0.9767 | 0.9835 | 0.9864 | 1 | 8.48 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 44 | Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears | safe_haven | 1 | contagion, haven bid | bullish | 1 | 0.9199 | 0.9372 | 0.9636 | 1 | 8.18 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 45 | Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens | safe_haven | 1 | extreme geopolitical stress | bullish | 1 | 0.6647 | 0.8294 | 0.6686 | 1 | 8.26 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 46 | Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades | risk_on | -1 | haven unwind | bullish | 1 | 0.8567 | 0.8672 | 0.976 | 1 | 8.39 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 47 | Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed | risk_on | -1 | risk-on drains haven demand | bullish | 1 | 0.7039 | 0.7249 | 0.9436 | 1 | 8.31 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 48 | Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside | risk_on | -1 | risk-on | bullish | 1 | 0.8041 | 0.862 | 0.8742 | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -1 | True |
| 49 | Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions | risk_on | -1 | risk-on | bullish | 1 | 0.8014 | 0.8231 | 0.9486 | 1 | 8.36 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 50 | Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion | gold_direct | 1 | direct demand | bullish | 1 | 0.9749 | 0.984 | 0.9816 | 1 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 51 | Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years | gold_direct | 1 | investment inflows | bullish | 1 | 0.9531 | 0.9705 | 0.9648 | 1 | 8.35 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 52 | China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month | gold_direct | 1 | official-sector demand | bullish | 1 | 0.9734 | 0.9812 | 0.984 | 1 | 8.83 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 53 | Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens | gold_direct | 1 | supply deficit | bullish | 1 | 0.3964 | 0.6834 | 0.4086 | 1 | 8.3 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 54 | Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run | gold_direct | -1 | profit-taking pressure | bearish | -1 | -0.9588 | 0.9741 | 0.969 | -1 | 8.73 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 55 | Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate | gold_direct | -1 | outflows | bearish | -1 | -0.9792 | 0.9856 | 0.987 | -1 | 8.33 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1 | True |
| 56 | Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls | gold_direct | -1 | physical demand soft | neutral | 0 | 0.0555 | 0.9424 | 0.8848 | 0 | 8.09 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1 | True |
| 57 | Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens | gold_direct | -1 | positioning unwind | bearish | -1 | -0.9806 | 0.9857 | 0.9898 | -1 | 8.31 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -1 | True |
| 58 | Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon | negation_traps | 1 | dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.7995 | 0.828 | 0.9336 | 1 | 8.58 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 59 | Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish | bearish | -1 | -0.9057 | 0.9465 | 0.9174 | -1 | 8.34 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1 | True |
| 60 | Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates | negation_traps | -1 | fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out | bullish | 1 | 0.924 | 0.939 | 0.9684 | 1 | 8.27 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 61 | Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed | negation_traps | 1 | disinflation opens door to cuts | bullish | 1 | 0.9398 | 0.9554 | 0.9678 | 1 | 8.29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 | True |
| 62 | Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish pushback phrased around negations | bearish | -1 | -0.5879 | 0.763 | 0.6268 | -1 | 8.81 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1 | True |
| 63 | Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold with tightening bias | bearish | -1 | -0.6592 | 0.8211 | 0.6706 | -1 | 8.71 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 64 | No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say | negation_traps | -1 | explicitly negated haven demand | bearish | -1 | -0.5835 | 0.7348 | 0.6584 | -1 | 8.79 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 65 | Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers | negation_traps | -1 | less-bad data is dollar-positive | bullish | 1 | 0.4213 | 0.6791 | 0.4498 | 1 | 8.45 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 66 | US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.6311 | 0.6435 | 0.9622 | 1 | 8.33 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 67 | US factory activity slumps to three-year low | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.8418 | 0.849 | 0.9832 | 1 | 8.32 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 68 | Consumer spending falls for third straight month | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.9026 | 0.9082 | 0.9878 | 1 | 7.93 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 69 | Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.9501 | 0.957 | 0.9858 | 1 | 8.31 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 70 | Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.371 | 0.5464 | 0.5142 | 1 | 8.43 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 71 | US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.1928 | 0.59 | 0.1952 | 1 | 8.61 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 72 | Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0168 | 0.9819 | 0.9638 | 0 | 8.27 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 73 | New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0491 | 0.9466 | 0.8932 | 0 | 8.33 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 74 | Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0028 | 0.9959 | 0.9918 | 0 | 8.07 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 75 | Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0085 | 0.9905 | 0.981 | 0 | 8.54 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 76 | Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | -0.0079 | 0.9169 | 0.8338 | 0 | 8.24 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 77 | Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0012 | 0.9971 | 0.9942 | 0 | 7.93 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 78 | Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0014 | 0.9982 | 0.9964 | 0 | 8.46 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 79 | Local elections see record turnout in several US states | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0343 | 0.9483 | 0.8966 | 0 | 8.48 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |