Harwinder Sekhon
1d72e4006a
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py) with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27 results and progress notes. Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py. The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
12 KiB
12 KiB
| 1 | headline | category | exp | rationale | model_label | model_cls | model_score | model_conf | model_margin | model_cls_band | model_ms | kw_xau | kw_cls | ds_s | ds_xau | ds_cls | ds_cached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky | hawkish_fed | -1 | higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.8767 | 0.924 | 0.9026 | 1 | 9.55 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 3 | Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year | hawkish_fed | -1 | more hikes = stronger dollar/yields | bearish | -1 | -0.9836 | 0.9871 | 0.993 | -1 | 8.29 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 4 | Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening | hawkish_fed | -1 | tightening expectations weigh on gold | bearish | -1 | -0.9791 | 0.9839 | 0.9902 | -1 | 7.74 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 5 | Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish guidance | bearish | -1 | -0.985 | 0.9897 | 0.9906 | -1 | 8.52 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 6 | FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead | hawkish_fed | -1 | outsized hike plus hawkish guidance | bearish | -1 | -0.967 | 0.9795 | 0.9748 | -1 | 7.74 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 7 | Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes | hawkish_fed | -1 | cut hopes dashed, yields up | bearish | -1 | -0.9748 | 0.9822 | 0.985 | -1 | 8.01 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 8 | Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish repricing | bearish | -1 | -0.9851 | 0.9893 | 0.9916 | -1 | 8.16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 9 | Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year | hawkish_fed | -1 | easing priced out | bearish | -1 | -0.9368 | 0.9535 | 0.9656 | -1 | 9.35 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 10 | Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come | dovish_fed | 1 | easing cycle is gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.9638 | 0.9796 | 0.9682 | 1 | 8.12 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 11 | Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance | bullish | 1 | 0.9788 | 0.986 | 0.9854 | 1 | 8.1 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 12 | FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing | dovish_fed | 1 | dovish minutes | bullish | 1 | 0.555 | 0.7744 | 0.5584 | 1 | 7.86 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 13 | Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance | bullish | 1 | 0.9498 | 0.9725 | 0.9544 | 1 | 8.14 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 14 | Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot | dovish_fed | 1 | pivot odds up | bullish | 1 | 0.9627 | 0.9755 | 0.974 | 1 | 7.95 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 15 | Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle | dovish_fed | 1 | easing priced in | bullish | 1 | 0.9728 | 0.9821 | 0.9812 | 1 | 7.82 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 16 | Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters | dovish_fed | 1 | global easing backdrop | bullish | 1 | 0.9739 | 0.9817 | 0.9844 | 1 | 7.98 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 17 | Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy | dovish_fed | 1 | QE is gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.705 | 0.7399 | 0.91 | 1 | 7.87 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 18 | Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data | strong_usd | -1 | strong dollar pressures gold | bearish | -1 | -0.976 | 0.9833 | 0.9854 | -1 | 8.32 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 19 | US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations | strong_usd | -1 | strong economy, hawkish implication | bearish | -1 | -0.6976 | 0.8285 | 0.727 | -1 | 8.31 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 20 | Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board | strong_usd | -1 | strong jobs lift dollar and yields | bearish | -1 | -0.8493 | 0.9073 | 0.88 | -1 | 8.04 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 21 | US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bullish | 1 | 0.2108 | 0.4973 | 0.2688 | 1 | 7.84 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 22 | Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia | strong_usd | -1 | dollar strength | neutral | 0 | 0.2348 | 0.7488 | 0.4976 | 1 | 8.09 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 23 | ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | neutral | 0 | 0.0232 | 0.5152 | 0.0304 | 0 | 8.27 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 24 | Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bullish | 1 | 0.195 | 0.565 | 0.2086 | 1 | 8.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 25 | Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data | weak_usd | 1 | weak dollar lifts gold | bullish | 1 | 0.9798 | 0.9846 | 0.9902 | 1 | 8.05 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 26 | US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides | weak_usd | 1 | weak jobs, dovish implication | bullish | 1 | 0.9587 | 0.9628 | 0.9916 | 1 | 7.93 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 27 | Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract | weak_usd | 1 | weak data | neutral | 0 | 0.0298 | 0.9632 | 0.9264 | 0 | 7.66 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 28 | US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears | weak_usd | 1 | slowdown is dovish | bullish | 1 | 0.9637 | 0.9701 | 0.987 | 1 | 7.71 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 29 | Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record | weak_usd | 1 | dollar weakness | bullish | 1 | 0.9708 | 0.9805 | 0.9804 | 1 | 7.65 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 30 | Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy | weak_usd | 1 | cooling economy | bullish | 1 | 0.8583 | 0.8662 | 0.9818 | 1 | 7.67 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1 | True |
| 31 | US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low | weak_usd | 1 | weak data | bullish | 1 | 0.9731 | 0.9781 | 0.9898 | 1 | 7.7 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 32 | Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off | real_yields | -1 | rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost | bearish | -1 | -0.9755 | 0.985 | 0.981 | -1 | 8.15 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 33 | 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut | real_yields | -1 | yield spike | bearish | -1 | -0.9664 | 0.9808 | 0.971 | -1 | 8.62 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 34 | Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets | real_yields | -1 | explicit opportunity-cost story | bearish | -1 | -0.0562 | 0.4986 | 0.0598 | 0 | 8.09 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 35 | Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds | real_yields | 1 | falling yields support gold | bullish | 1 | 0.9652 | 0.9713 | 0.9876 | 1 | 8.09 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 36 | Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates | real_yields | 1 | negative real yields are gold's best backdrop | bullish | 1 | 0.9456 | 0.9621 | 0.9662 | 1 | 7.83 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 37 | Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year | real_yields | 1 | falling yields | bullish | 1 | 0.9165 | 0.9538 | 0.9246 | 1 | 8.45 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 38 | Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety | safe_haven | 1 | safe-haven bid | bullish | 1 | 0.956 | 0.9636 | 0.9844 | 1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 39 | Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread | safe_haven | 1 | crisis flight to safety | bullish | 1 | 0.9535 | 0.9643 | 0.978 | 1 | 7.64 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 40 | Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets | safe_haven | 1 | explicit haven flow | bullish | 1 | 0.9024 | 0.9448 | 0.914 | 1 | 7.74 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 41 | Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default | safe_haven | 1 | default shock | bullish | 1 | 0.9126 | 0.9504 | 0.9234 | 1 | 7.58 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 42 | Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets | safe_haven | 1 | geopolitical stress | bullish | 1 | 0.9641 | 0.9737 | 0.9806 | 1 | 7.55 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 43 | Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic | safe_haven | 1 | risk-off | bullish | 1 | 0.9577 | 0.9617 | 0.9918 | 1 | 7.9 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 44 | Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears | safe_haven | 1 | contagion, haven bid | bullish | 1 | 0.8554 | 0.8611 | 0.9868 | 1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 45 | Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens | safe_haven | 1 | extreme geopolitical stress | bullish | 1 | 0.9415 | 0.962 | 0.9584 | 1 | 7.69 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 46 | Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades | risk_on | -1 | haven unwind | bullish | 1 | 0.9011 | 0.9101 | 0.9802 | 1 | 7.75 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 47 | Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed | risk_on | -1 | risk-on drains haven demand | neutral | 0 | 0.2946 | 0.6928 | 0.3856 | 1 | 7.75 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 48 | Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside | risk_on | -1 | risk-on | bearish | -1 | -0.5438 | 0.7343 | 0.5882 | -1 | 7.43 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -1 | True |
| 49 | Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions | risk_on | -1 | risk-on | bullish | 1 | 0.6469 | 0.6678 | 0.9394 | 1 | 7.64 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 50 | Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion | gold_direct | 1 | direct demand | bullish | 1 | 0.977 | 0.9833 | 0.9874 | 1 | 8.37 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 51 | Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years | gold_direct | 1 | investment inflows | bullish | 1 | 0.9607 | 0.9717 | 0.9774 | 1 | 7.71 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 52 | China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month | gold_direct | 1 | official-sector demand | bullish | 1 | 0.9771 | 0.9825 | 0.9892 | 1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 53 | Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens | gold_direct | 1 | supply deficit | bullish | 1 | 0.0709 | 0.5218 | 0.0728 | 0 | 7.69 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 54 | Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run | gold_direct | -1 | profit-taking pressure | bearish | -1 | -0.9657 | 0.9783 | 0.9746 | -1 | 7.85 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 55 | Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate | gold_direct | -1 | outflows | bearish | -1 | -0.9645 | 0.9772 | 0.9744 | -1 | 7.7 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1 | True |
| 56 | Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls | gold_direct | -1 | physical demand soft | neutral | 0 | 0.0274 | 0.9613 | 0.9226 | 0 | 7.54 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1 | True |
| 57 | Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens | gold_direct | -1 | positioning unwind | bearish | -1 | -0.9725 | 0.9819 | 0.981 | -1 | 7.66 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -1 | True |
| 58 | Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon | negation_traps | 1 | dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.5523 | 0.5801 | 0.9084 | 1 | 7.99 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 59 | Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish | bearish | -1 | -0.8024 | 0.8909 | 0.8192 | -1 | 7.68 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1 | True |
| 60 | Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates | negation_traps | -1 | fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out | bullish | 1 | 0.8585 | 0.8694 | 0.9752 | 1 | 8.02 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 61 | Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed | negation_traps | 1 | disinflation opens door to cuts | bullish | 1 | 0.9456 | 0.9597 | 0.971 | 1 | 7.81 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 | True |
| 62 | Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish pushback phrased around negations | bearish | -1 | -0.7706 | 0.8477 | 0.8334 | -1 | 8.18 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1 | True |
| 63 | Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold with tightening bias | bearish | -1 | -0.774 | 0.8734 | 0.7956 | -1 | 8.01 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 64 | No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say | negation_traps | -1 | explicitly negated haven demand | bearish | -1 | -0.6631 | 0.815 | 0.6858 | -1 | 8.51 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 65 | Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers | negation_traps | -1 | less-bad data is dollar-positive | bearish | -1 | -0.6432 | 0.7941 | 0.6806 | -1 | 7.87 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 66 | US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.6101 | 0.6214 | 0.964 | 1 | 7.67 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 67 | US factory activity slumps to three-year low | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.8698 | 0.8781 | 0.9814 | 1 | 7.66 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 68 | Consumer spending falls for third straight month | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.8561 | 0.8633 | 0.9832 | 1 | 7.43 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 69 | Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.9019 | 0.909 | 0.9844 | 1 | 7.67 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 70 | Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish | neutral | 0 | 0.0945 | 0.8411 | 0.6822 | 0 | 7.86 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 71 | US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish | bearish | -1 | -0.472 | 0.7289 | 0.4788 | -1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 72 | Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0285 | 0.9703 | 0.9406 | 0 | 7.64 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 73 | New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0395 | 0.9566 | 0.9132 | 0 | 7.71 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 74 | Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0073 | 0.9912 | 0.9824 | 0 | 7.56 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 75 | Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0389 | 0.9596 | 0.9192 | 0 | 7.69 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 76 | Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.2673 | 0.4345 | 0.131 | 1 | 7.58 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 77 | Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0015 | 0.9974 | 0.9948 | 0 | 7.42 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 78 | Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0039 | 0.9956 | 0.9912 | 0 | 7.96 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 79 | Local elections see record turnout in several US states | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0745 | 0.9026 | 0.8052 | 0 | 8.17 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |