M15 trail arm 0.70 (validated grid) + backtest/live parity hardening
Parity: replay now applies the live _apply_regime_filter_live method under the live guard (function-identity, default-off); unregistered-pair fallback applies the config.json overlay; parity sweep gains direct ATR/vol-regime assertions; regime-filter semantics test added. Trail campaign: --trail-arm/--trail-dist research flags; 30-cell grid on 5yr M15 refuted the earlier-arm hypothesis and found the 0.70-0.80 arm plateau. Shipped M15-only trail_arm_r=0.70 (factory override): +210.7R PF 1.35 WR 57.8% vs +175.7R PF 1.30 WR 53.9% baseline; both halves and 2024-06->2025-03 OOS better (+57.4 vs +45.4); 5yr max-DD clause (33.9R vs 29.1R) explicitly waived by owner. M5 unchanged. Factory replay reproduces the grid cell trade-for-trade; 201/201 tests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
This commit is contained in:
Harwinder Sekhon
@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ Thumbs.db
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# Backtesting data (keep scripts, ignore generated files)
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backtest/cache/
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backtest/*.csv
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backtest/trailgrid/
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backtest/__pycache__/
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.env.*
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logs/
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@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ This file is the authoritative developer/agent reference. The human-facing docs
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| `pair_signals/__init__.py` | 52 | `PAIR_PRODUCERS` registry + `produce_signal()` |
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| `pair_signals/xauusd.py` | 71 | XAU config factory + per-timeframe overrides (docstring = validation record) |
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| `main.py` | ~348 | CLI: `python main.py --pair XAUUSD --timeframe H1 --detail/--json` |
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| `test_all.py` | ~2800 | QA suite: **199 tests in 13 modules**, no live API needed. Must stay green. |
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| `test_all.py` | ~2800 | QA suite: **200 tests in 13 modules**, no live API needed. Must stay green. |
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| `backtest/gpu_backtest.py` | ~2231 | Bar-replay backtester (CuPy→NumPy fallback) using the real `SignalAggregator` |
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| `backtest/diagnose_filters.py` | 609 | Filter-diagnosis tooling |
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| `backtest/research/` | — | Calendar research infra (`ff_calendar_scraper.py`, `calendar_store.py`) + result CSVs |
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@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ EMA 9/21/50/200 (`ema_mode`: `"4ema"` default or `"2ema"` = 50/200 only); RSI 14
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| `min_tp_cost_multiple` | 30.0 | spread gate: TP1 distance must be ≥ cost × this (= $9 on XAU). Validated: sub-$10 targets lose |
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| `min_sl_pips` | 80.0 | SL floor in pips ($8 on XAU) |
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| `tp_floor_rr` | 0.5 | TP1 floor as fraction of SL distance (M15 factory overrides to 1.0) |
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| `trail_arm_r` / `trail_dist_r` | 0.6 / 0.75 | trailing exit: once favorable excursion ≥ arm×risk, stop trails dist×risk behind best price (bar-close updates). TP1 becomes advisory. Validated on 12mo M5: +105R vs +48R static. 0 disables |
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| `trail_arm_r` / `trail_dist_r` | 0.6 / 0.75 | trailing exit: once favorable excursion ≥ arm×risk, stop trails dist×risk behind best price (bar-close updates). TP1 becomes advisory. Validated on 12mo M5: +105R vs +48R static. 0 disables. **M15 factory overrides arm to 0.70** (2026-07-21 grid: +210.7R vs +175.7R/5yr, OOS +57.4 vs +45.4; DD clause waived by owner — see factory docstring) |
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| `pb_trail_arm_r` / `pb_trail_dist_r` | 0.8 / 0.75 | trailing params for XAU_PB pullback trades (tighter stops → arm later) |
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### NewsConfig
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@@ -256,6 +256,7 @@ Default confirmation map (same in the factory, the bot, and backtest usage): M5
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- M5: append hour 9 UTC to blocked hours (6-yr replay: +207.1R vs +178.3R; M15-and-up keep hour 9 — it's positive there). Enable BUY-only chart patterns (`cp_enabled=True`, `cp_patterns=["inv_hs","double_bottom","bull_flag"]`): 12mo +41.8R PF 1.60 (train/val both positive), 5yr +65.2R PF 1.48; bearish CP dropped (OOS −3.21R). M15/H1 CP remain disabled (all failed OOS).
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- M15: `signals.tp_floor_rr = 1.0` (1R minimum targets: +116.6R vs +105.4R, better in train/val and 2024 OOS; **hurts M5** — per-TF only) and `xau_strategy.blocked_regimes = ["trending"]` (mixed regime block: +65.7R vs +59.0R). A transitioning-SELL block was tested and REJECTED (bull-market artifact — failed 2024 OOS).
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- M15: `xau_strategy.sell_blocked_hours_utc = [15, 17]` (SELL-only hour block, validated 2026-07-16 on the 5-yr replay: +176.7R PF 1.31 vs +144.9R PF 1.22, better in all 6 years, both 12-mo halves, and 2024-06→2025-03 OOS; M5 cross-TF pocket confirms; BUYs at those hours are +34.3R so `blocked_hours_utc` would be wrong).
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- M15: `signals.trail_arm_r = 0.70` (trail arms later; validated 2026-07-21, 5-yr grid arm 0.3-0.9 × dist 0.5-1.0: +210.7R PF 1.35 WR 57.8% vs +175.7R PF 1.30 WR 53.9% at the 0.6 default; both halves and OOS better; 5yr max-DD clause 33.9R vs 29.1R waived by owner. Earlier-arm cells uniformly worse. M5 keeps 0.6).
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- The factory must stay equivalent to inline `PlatformConfig(symbol=XAUUSD, …)` + overrides — **enforced by a test in test_all.py**.
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---
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@@ -292,6 +293,7 @@ Replays history bar-by-bar through the **real `SignalAggregator.analyze_from_dat
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- Same-bar SL+TP tie → SL first (conservative). Gap through SL/TP → filled at the bar open.
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- **Trailing exits** (default on, from `signals.trail_arm_r/trail_dist_r`; XAU_PB trades carry per-trade 0.8/0.75 overrides): stop ratchets at bar close only, so a new stop can only fill from the next bar (conservative). Exit reasons: SL / TRAIL / TP1 (static mode) / TIMEOUT / NO_DATA.
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- Session + weekend + weekday filters evaluate the **decision time = bar close** (`ts + primary_duration`) — exactly matching the live bot's wall-clock check.
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- The optional H4-ADX regime filter (`config.backtest.regime_filter`, default off) is applied in the replay by calling the live `_apply_regime_filter_live` method itself under the same guard — live and backtest cannot diverge if it's enabled (2026-07-21 parity fix; the unregistered-pair config fallback also applies the config.json overlay now).
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- Confirmation TFs are sliced to bars **fully closed** by decision time (no look-ahead).
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**Performance:** `precompute_indicators` builds every indicator series once per TF (CuPy on GPU or NumPy — check the log line `Backend: CuPy GPU` vs `NumPy CPU fallback`; CuPy needs the `nvidia-*-cu12` pip wheels or it silently falls back). `GPUTechnicalEngine` subclasses the live engine and overrides only the `_compute_*` methods with cache lookups — outputs are byte-identical to the live engine (regression-tested). Bar replay: pure per-bar evaluation fans out over forked worker processes (`--workers`, 0 = auto: cores−2 capped 12; <5000 bars forces 1); the entry **cooldown (5 bars) is the only sequential rule**, applied in an ordered pass afterwards — parallel and sequential books are identical. ~300 bars/s/core, ~1700 bars/s at 10 workers.
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@@ -1530,6 +1530,13 @@ def _replay_span(span: Tuple[int, int]):
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use_news=False,
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)
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# Live parity: analyze_pair applies the optional higher-TF ADX
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# regime filter after delegation, under this exact guard. Calling
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# the SAME method on the SAME sliced dfs keeps the two paths
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# identical if the (default-off) filter is ever enabled.
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if platform_cfg.backtest.regime_filter:
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aggregator._apply_regime_filter_live(report, slice_dfs)
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if report.trade_setup is None:
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continue
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if report.signal_quality not in bt_cfg.quality_filter:
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@@ -2141,6 +2148,10 @@ def _parse_args(argv: Optional[List[str]] = None) -> argparse.Namespace:
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p.add_argument("--max-hold-bars", type=int, default=300)
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p.add_argument("--swing-sr-lookback", type=int, default=0,
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help="Override TechnicalConfig.swing_sr_lookback (0 = use config default)")
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p.add_argument("--trail-arm", type=float, default=None,
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help="Override signals.trail_arm_r for this run (research knob)")
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p.add_argument("--trail-dist", type=float, default=None,
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help="Override signals.trail_dist_r for this run (research knob)")
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p.add_argument("--quality", default="A+,A,B,C", help="Comma-separated allowed grades")
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p.add_argument("--strategies", default="",
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help="Comma-separated strategy tags to include (XAU,XAU_PB,XAU_CP,GENERIC). Empty = all.")
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@@ -2214,8 +2225,16 @@ def main(argv: Optional[List[str]] = None) -> int:
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primary_timeframe=primary_tf,
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confirmation_timeframes=confirm_tfs or [Timeframe.H1, Timeframe.H4],
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)
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# The factory path applies the config.json overlay inside
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# make_config; the fallback must match (live == backtest).
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from app_config import apply_pair_overrides # noqa: E402
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apply_pair_overrides(platform_cfg)
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if args.swing_sr_lookback > 0:
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platform_cfg.technical.swing_sr_lookback = args.swing_sr_lookback
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if args.trail_arm is not None:
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platform_cfg.signals.trail_arm_r = args.trail_arm
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if args.trail_dist is not None:
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platform_cfg.signals.trail_dist_r = args.trail_dist
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if args.cp:
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platform_cfg.xau_strategy.cp_enabled = True
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if args.cp_patterns:
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@@ -56,6 +56,22 @@ positive, val half -1.89R — marginal but sign-correct in aggregate).
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Gold's structural uptrend makes bullish patterns fundamentally more
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reliable. M15/H1 fail on all windows; M5-only enablement.
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M15 override 4 (validated 2026-07-21, 5-year replay 2021-07-21 ->
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2026-07-21, $0.30 spread, next-open fills): trailing-stop arm raised to
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0.70R (trail_arm_r 0.70, dist unchanged 0.75). Full grid arm 0.3-0.9 x
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dist 0.5-1.0 (30 cells): every earlier-arm cell (0.3/0.45) is WORSE —
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the "arm earlier to save fading trades" hypothesis is refuted; the
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plateau is arm 0.70-0.80 x dist 0.70-0.85 (all >= +190R). Chosen
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plateau center 0.70/0.75: +210.7R/1629 PF 1.35 WR 57.8% vs baseline
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0.60/0.75 +175.7R PF 1.30 WR 53.9%; both last-12mo halves improve
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(+49.7/+50.0 vs +36.4/+46.0); per-year better 4/6 (2022 -0.9R, 2023
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-1.4R, both within tolerance); OOS 2024-06-01 -> 2025-03-30 +57.4R
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PF 1.57 DD 17.0R vs +45.4R PF 1.47 DD 17.8R — better on every OOS
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metric. One clause waived BY OWNER DECISION 2026-07-21: 5yr max DD is
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33.9R vs 29.1R baseline (+4.8R deeper worst episode, 2022-23 chop),
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accepted in exchange for +20% total R. M5 keeps the global 0.6 arm
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(same per-TF divergence pattern as tp_floor_rr and the hour-9 block).
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M5 override (validated 2026-07-11, full-history replay 2020-03-17 ->
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2026-07-11 + 12mo book, $0.30 spread): block hour 9 UTC (post-London-
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open whipsaw). Hour-9 entries lost -28.9R/143 over 6 years, negative
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@@ -106,4 +122,7 @@ def make_config(
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config.xau_strategy.blocked_regimes = ["trending"]
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# Block SELL entries at 15:00/17:00 UTC on M15 only — see docstring.
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config.xau_strategy.sell_blocked_hours_utc = [15, 17]
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# Later trailing-stop arm on M15 only — see module docstring.
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config.signals.trail_arm_r = 0.70
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config.signals.trail_dist_r = 0.75
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return config
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+58
@@ -1868,6 +1868,8 @@ def _():
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inline_cfg.signals.tp_floor_rr = 1.0
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inline_cfg.xau_strategy.blocked_regimes = ["trending"]
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inline_cfg.xau_strategy.sell_blocked_hours_utc = [15, 17]
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inline_cfg.signals.trail_arm_r = 0.70
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inline_cfg.signals.trail_dist_r = 0.75
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if tf == Timeframe.M5:
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# Documented per-TF overrides (see xauusd.py docstring):
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# hour 9 UTC blocked + BUY-only chart patterns on M5 only.
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@@ -2060,6 +2062,13 @@ def _():
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bl = r_live.indicators["bollinger"]
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bg = r_gpu.indicators["bollinger"]
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assert bl.signal == bg.signal and bl.description == bg.description, f"bollinger @ {i}"
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al = r_live.indicators["atr"]
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ag = r_gpu.indicators["atr"]
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assert abs(al.value - ag.value) < 1e-9, f"atr value @ {i}"
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assert al.description == ag.description, f"atr description @ {i}"
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assert r_live.volatility_regime == r_gpu.volatility_regime, f"vol regime @ {i}"
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assert abs(r_live.key_levels["atr"] - r_gpu.key_levels["atr"]) < 1e-9, f"key_levels atr @ {i}"
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assert abs(r_live.key_levels["atr_pct"] - r_gpu.key_levels["atr_pct"]) < 1e-9, f"key_levels atr_pct @ {i}"
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if "Ribbon COMPRESSED" in el.description:
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seen_compressed = True
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if "Ribbon EXPANDING" in el.description:
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@@ -2068,6 +2077,45 @@ def _():
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assert seen_expanding, "sweep never saw a ribbon expansion (+10 conf path) — no teeth"
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@test("Regime filter: live gate semantics + backtest calls the same method")
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def _():
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from signal_aggregator import SignalAggregator
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from pair_signals import PAIR_PRODUCERS
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cfg = PAIR_PRODUCERS[XAUUSD](Timeframe.M15, [Timeframe.M5, Timeframe.H1])
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cfg.backtest.regime_filter = True
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agg = SignalAggregator(cfg)
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df = make_ohlcv(n=300, start_price=3400.0, trend=0.05, seed=3)
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flat = make_ohlcv(n=300, start_price=3400.0, trend=0.0, seed=7)
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adx = agg._latest_adx(flat, cfg.technical.adx_period)
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assert adx is not None and adx < cfg.backtest.regime_filter_min_adx, \
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f"fixture must be choppy (ADX {adx}) or the test has no teeth"
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# Low higher-TF ADX → signal downgraded to NEUTRAL/F, setup killed.
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report = agg.analyze_from_dataframes(XAUUSD, {Timeframe.M15: df},
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context=None, use_news=False)
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agg._apply_regime_filter_live(report, {Timeframe.H4: flat})
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assert report.final_signal == SignalStrength.NEUTRAL
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assert report.signal_quality == "F"
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assert report.trade_setup is None
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assert any("REGIME FILTER" in w for w in report.warnings)
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# Regime TF absent from dfs → warning only, report untouched.
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report2 = agg.analyze_from_dataframes(XAUUSD, {Timeframe.M15: df},
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context=None, use_news=False)
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quality_before = report2.signal_quality
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agg._apply_regime_filter_live(report2, {})
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assert report2.signal_quality == quality_before
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assert any("data unavailable" in w for w in report2.warnings)
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# Backtest wiring: the replay applies the SAME method under the SAME
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# guard as live analyze_pair (function-identity parity).
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import gpu_backtest as _gb
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src = open(_gb.__file__, encoding="utf-8").read()
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assert "_apply_regime_filter_live(report, slice_dfs)" in src
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assert "backtest.regime_filter" in src
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@test("disabled_indicators=['macd'] removes the pillar but keeps the histogram")
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def _():
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from engine import TechnicalEngine
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@@ -2521,6 +2569,16 @@ def _():
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assert args2.cp is False
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@test("Backtester: --trail-arm/--trail-dist research knobs parse, default None")
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def _():
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from gpu_backtest import _parse_args
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args = _parse_args(["--pair", "XAUUSD",
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"--trail-arm", "0.45", "--trail-dist", "0.75"])
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assert args.trail_arm == 0.45 and args.trail_dist == 0.75
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args2 = _parse_args(["--pair", "XAUUSD"])
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assert args2.trail_arm is None and args2.trail_dist is None
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# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# MODULE 13: app_config.py (config.json overlay)
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# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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Block a user