Harwinder Sekhon
6fff06ff90
Three display/warning-only upgrades to the news engine, all behind the
existing keyword path as fallback — signals are never gated on LLM
output (event_risk_caps_signals / sentiment_affects_signals stay False
per the 2026-07 audit; backtester use_news=False untouched):
- Headline sentiment: one batched call per 600s cache window (capped at
25 new headlines, sha1-cached so repeats are never re-sent) overrides
the keyword scores per currency with the gold-inverse doctrine encoded
in the prompt.
- Release surprises: get_event_risk_level's description now says which
way the print pulls GOLD ("— gold bearish: strong jobs lift yields"),
fixing the documented numeric-only gap; risk level and windows
unchanged.
- Market summary: 1-2 sentence macro blurb on SignalReport.news_summary,
rendered in Telegram alerts (📰) and the CLI (🧠).
New llm_client.py: requests-only OpenAI-compatible client (no SDK), one
attempt per call, UTC-day request cap, singleton so the cap survives
per-scan NewsEngine reconstruction. Config: deepseek block in
config.json + DEEPSEEK_API_KEY env; absent key = fully inert.
Live-measured API behavior baked in: V4-Flash is a hybrid thinking model
— requests send thinking:disabled (reasoning otherwise blew the timeout
and could exhaust max_tokens before the answer); prompts are static
module constants so DeepSeek's prefix cache prices repeat calls at the
cache-hit rate; scores use compact [s, xau] pairs; timeout 12s.
Tests 273 → 286 (new Module 19 + deepseek config tests).
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Nsd8HcrV67GbCZXxZEn1Ma
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<title>ForexBot2 — User Guide</title>
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<h1>ForexBot2 — User Guide</h1>
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<div class="subtitle">How to read, act on, and survive the signals · July 2026</div>
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<h2>1 · What the bot does</h2>
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<p>ForexBot2 analyzes <b>gold (XAU/USD)</b> around the clock on several chart timeframes at once. On every candle close it scores nine technical indicators (trend, momentum, volatility, divergences, candlestick patterns), adapts the weighting to the current market regime (trending / ranging / transitioning), checks that higher timeframes agree, adjusts for news and economic-calendar events, and — only when everything lines up — sends a <b>signal with a complete trade plan</b> to Telegram: direction, entry, stop loss, target, and a trailing-stop management plan.</p>
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<p>Most of the time it sends nothing. Silence means no edge was found; that is the bot working correctly, not a malfunction.</p>
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<h2>2 · Anatomy of a signal</h2>
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<div class="signal-box">🔍 XAU/USD Signal Analysis (M15)
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🕐 2026-07-10 14:00 UTC
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💰 Close: 4,132.50
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📊 Regime: Trending Up | Vol: normal
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━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
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🟢 BUY 🅰 A | Score: +38.2 | 64% conf
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✅ MTF aligned
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📈 MTF: M5 ✅ H1 ✅
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📋 Indicators … (9 rows)
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⚠️ EXTREME volatility — wider stops needed
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━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
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🚀 TRADE SETUP
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📈 Direction: BUY
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▶ Entry: 4,132.50
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🛑 SL: 4,103.10 ($29.40 / 294 pips)
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🎯 TP1: 4,161.90 ($29.40 / 294 pips)
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⚖️ RR: 1:1.0
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🔄 Trail: once price hits 4,150.14 (+0.6R),
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trail SL $22.05 behind best price —
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TP1 is a guide, let it run</div>
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<table>
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<tr><th style="width:28%">Field</th><th>What it means</th></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Signal + grade</b></td><td>Direction (BUY / SELL / STRONG_*) plus a quality grade <b>A+ → F</b>. A trade setup is only attached at grade C or better. Higher grades = more indicator agreement and cleaner regime.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Score / confidence</b></td><td>The regime-weighted composite of all nine indicators. Bigger absolute score = stronger consensus.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>MTF aligned</b></td><td>The two confirmation timeframes agree with the trade direction. Signals without alignment are filtered out on M5.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Warnings ⚠️</b></td><td>Context, not veto. Backtesting shows warned trades perform about the same — strong momentum often triggers warnings.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Market context 📰</b></td><td>An AI-written one-liner summarizing today's macro backdrop (headlines + high-impact releases) and its likely pull on gold. Informational only — it never blocks or grades a signal.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>SL / TP1 / RR</b></td><td>Stop loss sits behind the nearest swing level with an ATR buffer. TP1 is the nearest opposing level. <b>1R</b> = the entry-to-SL distance = the amount you risk.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Trail plan 🔄</b></td><td>The real exit. Once price moves +0.6R in your favor (+0.8R for pullback setups), move the stop to trail 0.75R behind the best price and update it at each candle close. <b>TP1 is advisory — let winners run.</b></td></tr>
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</table>
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<h2>3 · Acting on a signal — step by step</h2>
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<ol>
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<li><b>Size the position first.</b> Decide your risk per trade — <b>0.5–1% of account, never more</b>. Position size = (account × risk%) ÷ stop distance in $. The stop distance varies per signal, so the size changes every trade; the dollar risk must not.</li>
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<li><b>Enter promptly at market.</b> All backtested results assume entry at the open of the candle after the signal. On M5, minutes matter (see §4). If you are very late — price already moved a large part of the way to the arm level — skip the trade. There is always another signal.</li>
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<li><b>Place the stop loss immediately</b> at the given SL. No mental stops — gold gaps and spikes.</li>
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<li><b>Manage with the trail, not TP1.</b> When price reaches the arm level printed in the message, start trailing the stop the stated $ distance behind the best price, tightening only at candle close. This is what produced the backtested results; taking fixed TP1 profits gives most of the edge away.</li>
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<li><b>One signal, one trade.</b> The M5, M15 and H1 books confirm off each other and are usually long or short gold at the same time. Taking the same move on multiple timeframes multiplies risk, not diversification. Pick your timeframe (§4) and ignore the others.</li>
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</ol>
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<h2>4 · Choosing your timeframe</h2>
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<p>Twelve-month backtest (Jul 2025 – Jul 2026, real spreads, entry at next candle open):</p>
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<table>
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<tr><th></th><th>M5</th><th>M15</th><th>H1</th></tr>
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<tr><td>Trades / week</td><td>~10</td><td>~9.5</td><td>~3</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Total result (12 mo)</td><td>+135.6R</td><td>+67.2R</td><td>+49.9R</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Win rate / profit factor</td><td>59.7% / 1.81</td><td>55.8% / 1.40</td><td>59.4% / 1.94</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Typical (median) hold</td><td>2.4 h</td><td>6 h</td><td>12.5 h</td></tr>
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<tr><td>90% of trades close within</td><td>16 h</td><td>40 h</td><td>3.7 days</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Typical stop distance</td><td>~$19</td><td>~$29</td><td>~$44</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Worst drawdown</td><td>11.2R</td><td>9.4R</td><td>9.5R</td></tr>
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</table>
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<ul>
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<li><b>M5 — intraday, execution-critical.</b> Highest total edge, but stops are tight: a couple of dollars of slippage or a late entry eats a meaningful share of every trade. Suitable only if you can act within a minute or two of the alert (or automate). Trades open and close within a session; you sleep flat.</li>
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<li><b>M15 — the middle path.</b> Same frequency as M5, wider stops, up to 15 minutes to act. About half your trades will still be open overnight.</li>
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<li><b>H1 — swing trading around a normal life.</b> Best quality per trade and very forgiving of slow manual execution (you have up to an hour). The costs: positions held for days, through news and overnight sessions, and a <b>lumpy</b> equity curve — one quarter of the test year was negative and most of the profit came in a single quarter. Judge it on quarters, not weeks.</li>
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</ul>
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<div class="callout"><b>If you trade manually from the Telegram alerts, H1 (or M15) is the honest choice.</b> M5's backtested edge assumes near-instant fills that a human copying signals rarely achieves.</div>
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<h2>5 · What to expect (and what not to)</h2>
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<ul>
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<li><b>You will lose ~40% of trades.</b> A 56–60% win rate means losing streaks of 5+ are routine over a year. The system's edge is the average across hundreds of trades, not any single one.</li>
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<li><b>Stops hit fast, winners take time.</b> Losing trades die in roughly half the time winners take. An early stop-out is the system doing its job.</li>
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<li><b>Drawdowns of ~10R are normal.</b> At 1% risk per trade, expect to be ~10% down from a peak at some point in a normal year. This is why risking more than 1% per trade is how accounts die.</li>
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<li><b>Backtest ≠ live.</b> Results above charge real spreads and realistic fills, but cannot model your personal latency, broker slippage, or requotes. Assume live results will be somewhat worse — especially on M5.</li>
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<li><b>Quiet periods are normal.</b> Filters block bad hours, bad regimes and misaligned timeframes. Days can pass without a signal.</li>
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</ul>
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<h2>6 · Rules that keep you alive</h2>
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<div class="callout red">
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<b>The five rules</b>
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<ol style="margin-bottom:0">
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<li>Risk a fixed 0.5–1% per trade. Never "make it back" by sizing up after losses.</li>
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<li>Hard stop loss in the market on every trade, placed at entry time.</li>
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<li>One timeframe, one trade at a time. No stacking, no pyramiding onto bot signals.</li>
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<li>Missed the entry? Skip it. Chasing converts a positive-edge trade into a coin flip.</li>
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<li>Evaluate performance monthly at the earliest, quarterly for H1. Never after a bad day.</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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<h2>7 · Bot commands (owner)</h2>
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<table>
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<tr><th style="width:30%">Command</th><th>What it does</th></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/start</code></td><td>Show the button menu (manual scans per timeframe, Scan All TFs).</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/scan</code></td><td>Run an immediate analysis of the primary timeframe.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/autoscan</code></td><td>Toggle automatic scanning (M5 / M15 / H1 / H4 at each candle close).</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/status</code></td><td>Uptime, auto-scan state, WebSocket price-monitor state.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/cache</code> · <code>/clearcache</code></td><td>Inspect / reset the market-data cache.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><code>/help</code></td><td>Command reference.</td></tr>
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</table>
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<p class="small">The bot also streams live prices over WebSocket and fires an immediate scan when price breaches a key level (swing S/R, Bollinger, Keltner, EMA-200). Commands respond only to the configured owner chat; subscribers receive the signal feed via the channel.</p>
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<div class="disclaimer"><b>⚠️ Risk disclaimer.</b> This bot and guide are for educational and research purposes only and are <b>not financial advice</b>. Trading forex, gold and CFDs on margin carries a high risk of loss; past (and backtested) performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own analysis and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.</div>
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